Prediction Pick 6

[Old Spice]

That's a lame excuse to cover up your own hypocrisy.

Maybe you need to learn what hypocrite means. Actually, a step back. Understand what his argument is before you decide if he contradicts it by his own actions.

His claim is that people on here often look back on drafts and make statements about who should have been picked up as though that was obvious, but when you look at the record, no such claim is made at the time. Those people are blow-hards and gooses.

Timmy is stating quite clearly he's no expert so I can't really see how he could be compared to the type of people he's calling out. In short, there's no hypocrisy. You either don't understand his point or don't know what a hypocrite is. Either way it's a user end problem.

 

[sr36]

What I find amusing is that no one knows who we are picking in two days yet Hine knows that 17 Clubs are going to bid on our "potential" Father son / Academy player before the second round next year!

TradeBalta (I think it was him) seemed to have a bizarre theory that we are extremely confident that a bid would come before our second rounder and assumedly after our first.

But I'm pretty sure that Hine was simply suggesting that there are a lot of academy and father son blokes in play next year, which means that it is probable that many second and third round selections will get swallowed up by clubs matching bids, thus the gap between a second and third round selection will probably narrow.

 

[TradeDraft]

Love us to take a risk on Bonar, the kid a match changer

 

[CFC2010]

TradeBalta (I think it was him) seemed to have a bizarre theory that we are extremely confident that a bid would come before our second rounder and assumedly after our first.

But I'm pretty sure that Hine was simply suggesting that there are a lot of academy and father son blokes in play next year, which means that it is probable that many second and third round selections will get swallowed up by clubs matching bids, thus the gap between a second and third round selection will probably narrow.

Let's play a game sr36.

Brisbane tell Brayshaw that he will be number one pick on Friday.
Brayshaw is walking up the stairs on Draft night and rolls his ankle and does an ACL.

Does Brisbane still take him at number one? Probable or Improbable?

 

[MightyRoar]

Cerra has absolutely star written all over him. You would take him in a heartbeat except that he will go number 2 after Rayner.

You may be right mate and he may turn into a star but the unfortunate thing is, unless your a draft guru and watch it religiously it's hard to make much of 3min video clips and I just don't get as excited with him as others.

I just feel like others fit our current list better and have a lot of upside about them, like;

Fogarty
Naughton
Coffield
and even Stephenson.

But for what's it's worth, if he did slide to our pick and we took him I wouldn't be disappointed, I'd just prefer others over him that fill a more pressing need.

 

[mike123]

Maybe you need to learn what hypocrite means. Actually, a step back. Understand what his argument is before you decide if he contradicts it by his own actions.

His claim is that people on here often look back on drafts and make statements about who should have been picked up as though that was obvious, but when you look at the record, no such claim is made at the time. Those people are blow-hards and gooses.

Timmy is stating quite clearly he's no expert so I can't really see how he could be compared to the type of people he's calling out. In short, there's no hypocrisy. You either don't understand his point or don't know what a hypocrite is. Either way it's a user end problem.

No it's you who doesn't understand my point.

 

[DraftBalta]

If all of the Fab Five go we'll have to choose from the leftovers table

Our Top Ten

Naughton
Fogarty
Murphy
Stephenson
Coffield
Bonar
Hunter
Richards
Higgins
O'Brien

 

[Old Spice]

No it's you who doesn't understand my point.

a ha

 

[Soups]

I’m loving this year. 2 days out and most clubs whispers are coming out. Not ours though. It’s going to be like Christmas Friday, but you didn’t buy your own present this year.

 

[TradeDraft]

I’m loving this year. 2 days out and most clubs whispers are coming out. Not ours though. It’s going to be like Christmas Friday, but you didn’t buy your own present this year.

I don't mind IF Our 1st Pick was Leaked we have plenty of Picks later in the Draft for the Suprise

 

[mike123]

a ha

You might want to get that checked out.

 

[DraftBalta]

You might want to get that checked out.

Mikey's on the angry pills again

 

[Soups]

I don't mind IF Our 1st Pick was Leaked we have plenty of Picks later in the Draft for the Suprise

Nah stuff it I don’t want to know until Hine calls the name out lol.

 

[Old Spice]

Mikey's on the angry pills again

he gets grumpy if he hasn't had a big boy sleep.

 

[sr36]

Let's play a game sr36.

Brisbane tell Brayshaw that he will be number one pick on Friday.
Brayshaw is walking up the stairs on Draft night and rolls his ankle and does an ACL.

Does Brisbane still take him at number one? Probable or Improbable?

I agree with your point regarding exactitude with individuals and I argued very strongly against the rationale that we traded out our second rounder because we were confident that our second rounder would be swallowed up by an academy kid. It's an argument that makes no sense. Assuming a draft range, between our first and second of a kid this far out is ridiculous. But drafting and trading is about estimations of probability. Like your Brayshaw scenario, the guy you draft or trade in may do a knee and never offer anywhere near the value you paid. That doesn't mean you don't make a decision based on probability

I reckon Hine was merely suggesting that it is likely - with so many academy kids nominated for next year - that the gap between a second rounder and a third rounder will narrow due to the matching of bids. Thus, it is likely that the gap between our 2nd rounder and Sydney's 3rd rounder next year is likely to reduce. I find it pretty hard to argue with that scenario. That doesn't make Murray worth the price we paid, but it does mean that the price is likely to be lower than the 20+ pick differential that many are predicting and using as a base for their vociferous criticism .

 

[pie machine]

Hope we take the FOG

 

[CFC2010]

I agree with your point regarding exactitude with individuals and I argued very strongly against the rationale that we traded out our second rounder because we were confident that our second rounder would be swallowed up by an academy kid. It's an argument that makes no sense. Assuming a draft range, between our first and second of a kid this far out is ridiculous. But drafting and trading is about estimations of probability. Like your Brayshaw scenario, the guy you draft or trade in may do a knee and never offer anywhere near the value you paid. That doesn't mean you don't make a decision based on probability

I reckon Hine was merely suggesting that it is likely - with so many academy kids nominated for next year - that the gap between a second rounder and a third rounder will narrow due to the matching of bids. Thus, it is likely that the gap between our 2nd rounder and Sydney's 3rd rounder next year is likely to reduce. I find it pretty hard to argue with that scenario. That doesn't make Murray worth the price we paid, but it does mean that the price is likely to be lower than the 20+ pick differential that many are predicting and using as a base for their vociferous criticism .

What Hine effectively is doing in American Football terms is a Hail Mary = a long, typically unsuccessful pass made in an attempt to score late in the game.
I hope it works out I really do.

You still didn't answer my question...........Does Brisbane still take Brayshaw at number one?

 

[loki04]

That reply narrows the field down!!

I’m not criticising anybody just pointing out it’s not easy. I’m offering no views myself because I’m no expert.

(Although I am criticising in advance the inevitable harry hindsight’s who in five years time will reinvent history and say what we should have done and how obvious it was at the time) .

You don't need to be an expert to have an opinion from what you see, after all that is why this forum exists for mugs to talk footy with other mugs.

There is nothing to lose or gain should you add something to the conversation of who like the look of, like all of us who do comment.

 

[TradeDraft]

Hope we take the FOG

I have a Feeling and what I read it between Him and Naughton who we Pick at 6

 

[Soups]

If it’s out of Fog and Naughton I’m happy with either. Both can play round one if needed.

 

[loki04]

Hope we take the FOG

Yeah a few o us are on the Fog boat. To play and endure with a bung knee at his age and not be able to complete training sessions is a great sign of his mental capacity and will hold him in good stead.

Also explains his tank not being there if you cant complete full running sessions then your not going to be at your peak running capacity.

I can already see it he will slide and be snapped up by Saints who do lack that type of player and then for him to become the pick of the draft crop.

 

[loki04]

If it’s out of Fog and Naughton I’m happy with either. Both can play round one if needed.

Sweet 1 can hit up the players inside 50, the other will help Dipper win the first Brownlow from a retired player giving special comments.

 

[loki04]

Toot toot, get on the Murphy McMurphyface boat.

THE Fog.

 

[nahnah]

no leaks on our pick in the same year Pert isn't there. Bit of an assumption to make but I'm making it because I was happy to see him go

 

[Quicky]

I reckon Bonar plays a lot more like a centre half forward than Fogarty does. Leads and marks, finding the ball at ground level, snaps at goal, finds the ball using pace to find space running back at goal. He has a variety of goal scoring avenues. I reckon he's the perfect modern day centre half forward. Are we in a position to take a gamble? Because I reckon he's just about the best potential in the whole draft. How likely is he to have further injury complications The Royal Sampler?