Draft Watcher PMBangers 2020 Draft Thread

[PMBangers]

Phantom Draft Round 1 (updated 9/12)

 

[PMBangers]

My guess for Brisbane will be two picks, three at the most.

There’s a lot talk about Daniher and Cockatoo moving to Brisbane.

I hope we go for a young ruck, and our top academy kid, Blake Coleman.

I'd assume you'd trade one of your firsts this year into a future second if the plan is 1 live pick plus Coleman. I know Cox is apparently gathering interest from other clubs so that might open up another spot, great problem to have for the Lions

 

[briztoon]

I'd assume you'd trade one of your firsts this year into a future second if the plan is 1 live pick plus Coleman. I know Cox is apparently gathering interest from other clubs so that might open up another spot, great problem to have for the Lions

Cox is out of contract, so doesn’t open up a spot. He’s a kid we’d prefer to keep, but with our list squeeze I just don’t see it happening.

 

[PMBangers]

Cox is out of contract, so doesn’t open up a spot. He’s a kid we’d prefer to keep, but with our list squeeze I just don’t see it happening.

Sorry thought he'd be included, what contracted players may be moved on? Witherden seems to get mentioned as a possibility, I'm not convinced he'd be let go though

 

[briztoon]

Sorry thought he'd be included, what contracted players may be moved on? Witherden seems to get mentioned as a possibility, I'm not convinced he'd be let go though

Witherden is pure media speculation.

Honestly I don’t see any contracted players moving on.

There’s some we’d prefer to see leave, rather than lose the likes of Cedric Cox or Mitch Hinge. Archie Smith and Marcus Aden’s would be two.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Jacob Allison (R)
Toby Wooller
Allen Christensen
Sam Skinner (R)
Corey Lyons (R)

I've trimmed it to who I reckon will be chopped first.

 

[ADL9798]

I actually can't recall a bid where I've thought 'That was out of spite wasn't it?' even Mosquito and Coleman there was a need for that sort for Essendon, Silvagni was a nothing pick to match anyway as well. I just don't get where the idea of bidding for the sake of bidding comes from

I wouldnt go as far as saying it would be purely out of spite, or bidding for the sake of it. There would be a strategic element to it but it appears many with their noses in this draft hold Campbell in high regard.

ferrisb consensus draft has him going at 6 (range 3-10), you have him rated at pick 5 in your latest rankings, while Draft Central highlight him as a “player who could potentially sit among the top five come season’s end”, so we’re talking about a bid coming 1-2 picks earlier, not 10.

The way I see it there’s both risk and reward in either bidding or in not bidding on him before Sydney’s first.

 

[andleanback]

A lot of us would like to see one pick traded in to 2021.

It’s very difficult looking at our out of contract players, and working out where 4 lists spots are going to come from.

We currently have 37 players signed for next year, with the following out of contract;
2020:
Cedric Cox
Jacob Allison (R)
Toby Wooller
Stefan Martin
Grant Birchall
Mitchell Hinge
Ryan Lester
Allen Christensen
Sam Skinner (R)
Corey Lyons (R)
Matt Eagles (R)

We’re going to end up delisting a couple of players a lot of fans would prefer we didn’t have to.

Is mathieson under contract next year?

 

[PMBangers]

I wouldnt go as far as saying it would be out of spite, or bidding for the sake of it. There would be a strategic element to it but it appears many with their noses in this draft view Campbell as a highly regarded player.

ferrisb consensus draft has him going at 6 (range 3-10), you have him rated at pick 5 in your latest rankings, while Draft Central highlight him as a “player who could potentially sit among the top five come season’s end”, so we’re talking about a bid coming 1-2 picks earlier, not 10.

The way I see it there’s both risk and reward in either bidding or in not bidding on him before Sydney’s first.

The difference between a McDonald/ Hollands and a Campbell is too big for me personally to be risking the bid getting matched, and looking at Sydney's needs I think they'd jump at the chance of one of those two if available. If Crows or North seriously rate Campbell that high go for it, but it's not something I'd be doing personally

 

[Magnets]

Just wondering what you think of some Ovens & Murray prospects in the next couple of years. We have been a strong league, but our number of drafts have been low lately. We know Elijah Hollands will go in the top 10 this year which is great, Charlie Byrne is another highly rated prospect. Next year, prospects include Jett Smith and Ned Pendergast (Yarrawonga), Euriah Hollard and Campbell Chesserr (Lavington), Jake Hodgkin and Noah Bradshaw (Raiders). Do you have thoughts on these boys please?

 

[briztoon]

I've trimmed it to who I reckon will be chopped first.

You can add Matty Eagles to that list as well.

 

[briztoon]

Is mathieson under contract next year?

Yes.

Out of contract at the end of next season, and slipping backwards on the depth chart.

 

[PMBangers]

Just wondering what you think of some Ovens & Murray prospects in the next couple of years. We have been a strong league, but our number of drafts have been low lately. We know Elijah Hollands will go in the top 10 this year which is great, Charlie Byrne is another highly rated prospect. Next year, prospects include Jett Smith and Ned Pendergast (Yarrawonga), Euriah Hollard and Campbell Chesserr (Lavington), Jake Hodgkin and Noah Bradshaw (Raiders). Do you have thoughts on these boys please?

I wouldn't say Byrne is a guaranteed draftee, if the draft goes for around the 50 picks predicted he's probably fitting in around that 40-50 mark if he's getting selected, it's promising he's grown a bit during the year though, 185 cm for a defensive prospect is a good size so it'll be interesting to see how he goes.
As for next year, I haven't seen too many of the prospects you mentioned, Chesser is the only one I've had solid exposure to and I'd say he'scertainly one of the leading prospects for 2021 at this early stage, certainly one to look out for

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I asked this question to eDPS but I'd like to hear your thoughts on it as well.

What stops Isiah Winder from being in the first round conversation? I see there are a few other midfield-forwards rated more highly like Perkins. What do they have that Winder doesn't?

 

[PMBangers]

I asked this question to eDPS but I'd like to hear your thoughts on it as well.

What stops Isiah Winder from being in the first round conversation? I see there are a few other midfield-forwards rated more highly like Perkins. What do they have that Winder doesn't?

It's one of those things where I'm assuming height and size is questioned, at my last checking he's 178cm and 77kg, so from there is there much capacity to put on weight? How is he going to translate his colts game into an AFL system where there's going to be guys that are just as fast as him but bigger? He hasn't really had any of the challenges playing this year, and it's no fault of his own, and he's one that for me personally, is suffering from a lack of champs games where he would've been able to face those challenges and squash the question marks. Winder individually though is superbly skilled and reads the game really well on the outside, obviously athletic, but if I compare him to other similar players they just do one or two things better. Gulden I think is better on the inside, Western I think has cleaner skills, Laurie I think is more versatile.
So it's a combination of those questions you always ask of smaller guys plus how he stacks up compared to guys with similar/ smaller heights and builds, and obviously the flavour of recruiting recently has been taller athletic players, so these types tend to slide just because they're easier to find. He probably sits somewhere in that 25-35 range in my rankings FWIW where the talent is so even it's hard to split the hairs

 

[SumTingWong]

What would be a realistic trade for Sydney Stack?

 

[PMBangers]

What would be a realistic trade for Sydney Stack?

ooft thats a hard one, I find it hard to get objective trade values especially with GWS players. Without any real research into his stats I'd say a mid 2nd rounder would be fair, maybe a little earlier because of the strength of the draft

 

[SumTingWong]

ooft thats a hard one, I find it hard to get objective trade values especially with GWS players. Without any real research into his stats I'd say a mid 2nd rounder would be fair, maybe a little earlier because of the strength of the draft

GWS?

 

[PMBangers]

GWS?

Not specific to Stack, just that I don't really know if how I value a player will be seen as objective in general, especially if it is a GWS player, and I'll often look at how much a players value is in terms of 'how much does X team need that sort', so for Stack I'm looking at it through a GWS lense.
Richmond will have an interesting off season I suspect with expected rookie cuts, expecting some bargain trades/ DFA's for other clubs

 

[LB2Snake]

I asked this question to eDPS but I'd like to hear your thoughts on it as well.

What stops Isiah Winder from being in the first round conversation? I see there are a few other midfield-forwards rated more highly like Perkins. What do they have that Winder doesn't?

Is isiah winder an NGA?

 

[PMBangers]

Is isiah winder an NGA?

Nah free to a good home

 

[CaptainMurphy]

A lot of us would like to see one pick traded in to 2021.

It’s very difficult looking at our out of contract players, and working out where 4 lists spots are going to come from.

We currently have 37 players signed for next year, with the following out of contract;
2020:
Cedric Cox
Jacob Allison (R)
Toby Wooller
Stefan Martin
Grant Birchall
Mitchell Hinge
Ryan Lester
Allen Christensen
Sam Skinner (R)
Corey Lyons (R)
Matt Eagles (R)

We’re going to end up delisting a couple of players a lot of fans would prefer we didn’t have to.

Has Wooller shown anything over the years? I was keen on him in his draft year but haven't heard anything since.

 

[briztoon]

Has Wooller shown anything over the years? I was keen on him in his draft year but haven't heard anything since.

I’m probably not the best to answer this, as I didn’t watch a lot of our reserves from last year.

From the little I did watch, I’d say most of our other young talls were ahead of him in the clubs eyes.

 

[PMBangers]

At some stage over the next fortnight I'll be trying to do some individual club run downs for trade, FA & Draft period, just will highlight what I think they should do with OOC players, who they should look to pick up for trade or free agency and what they might look for in the draft. AS we get closer and closer to the trade period we're naturally finding out more players intentions, I've consistently said I think this will be a big year for player movement and it's shaping up that way. I'm of the thinking that with Band 1 and Band 2 compo's that might get handed out this year (Williams, Daniher, Corr, Atkins, Crouch, maybe Cameron) that the first round could be 25 picks before draft night even starts, which could realistically take the first round to pick 30-35

 

[PMBangers]

Adelaide
OOC's: Atkins is already confirmed to be leaving, I think the crows will let that one happen regardless of value of contract. best case is Band 2 and Worst case is Band 4 but I think if it is the reported figures (500k for 4 years) they'll get well reimbursed, probably overs for him. Crouch is an interesting one, especially after his incident recently it'll be interesting to see what happens on that front, I don't think it knocks significant dollars off any contract but I wonder if some clubs pullout because of it? A lot of what I'd do here depends on the club that he goes to, if it's Geelong and the compo will only be Band 2 I'm matching and pushing for their middle first rounder, if it's a team without a mid-late first and Band 2 I'm keeping him, and obviously Band 1 you take and laugh to the draft. Hartigan,, Poholke, Crocker, I'm giving a year or two, Taylor being a speculative pick to begin with should get some more time, the others are good depth. Galluci, and Mackay I'm delisting or encouraging to find a new club, Mackay maybe gets a year if he wants to go on given his length at the club
Trade/FA: Hately has already nominated the Crows and will be a good pick up, I think the Atkins compo/ their second rounder (depending on which ends up being lower) will probably be moved on for Hately and a later round pick. Outside of Hately there's not much noise around the crows, and I don't think they should be, need to attack the draft
Draft: Adelaide are in a decent spot with their youth I think and just need to bring in the best midfield and forward talents they can, my move would be McDonald at Pick 1 and then best available midfield talent at their GWS first rounder, could be an O'Driscoll or Carroll to pair the WA kids, or possibly a Perkins/ Macrae. Later on they'll pick up Edwards and Newchurch it's fair to assume, they could probably afford to pass on Borlase with their young backline prospects but he'd also make for good depth in the future

North Melbourne
OOC's: Should be looking to retain the majority of the guys they didn't delist really, they've got so many OOC's individually warranting them is difficult so I think that blanket statement does well enough (I guess) Ben Brown I'd have kept but it looks like they're trying to cash out on anyone older than 28 with value, I just worry that they won't be getting what they're expecting for him, I'd say a late first or early second is what they'll net whether or not that's good for them isn't something I can say.
Trade/FA's: Corr has already nominated North as his preferred destination, not a massive name but a hard worker that'll help bring a good work ethic to a young group. Outside of that I haven't really heard anything significant, Wright and Brodie from Gold Coast would be good pickups and would be best 22 early on, if North took on their full contracts, which with their cap space they should be able to do, they could probably get both for a third round pick. Xavier O'Halloran as another big bodied mid that's OOC/ available would be a good pickup as well, well renowned for his leadership. Outside of that I'd get aggressive and go for young contracted players, guys like Duursma, Rowbottom, J Berry, are the young recruits that'll have immediate impact that will be sustained for 8-10 years are the types North should be aggressively targeting, I still think they have something up their sleeve just not sure what.
Draft: Will have plenty of picks you'd assume, although I'm not sure how many more first rounders they'll get in which could be a concern, stacking their list with a bunch of speculative second round picks isn't the best course of action imo. With Pick 2, bid on JUH is obvious then take whoever is left of Hollands or McDonald, if they don't bring in another KPF prospect through trading consider picking Thilthorpe, but that might be a bit of a reach. After that just go best available, they need young talent everywhere so there's no point being picky

Sydney
OOC's: Not many I'd say aren't worth keeping, personally I'd move on Amartey, Knoll, Maibaum and Stoddart and give only 1 year deals to McLean, Rowles and O'Connor. Sign the rest for 2-4 depending on age and position in squad. I'd really look at moving on Melican, I don't think he's shown much improvement over the last couple of years and looks a depth player at best, given his age he may still have some decent trade value.
Trade/FA's: Should be up to their eyes in the race for Cameron, money permitting, but that sort of atheletic and fit forward would suit them well I think as they've shown willingness to move those sorts around to get them involved in the game, which is the sort of thing Jezza needs. Hickey/ Preuss as guys that have shown they can play as a number 1 ruck but are comfortable being depth are the types Sydney need to look at as well, Naismith being down for essentially the entirety of 2021 means that they're relying on guys like McLean to carry the ruckload, and McLean isn't number 1 ruck quality. Apart from that some moneyball type KPD's wouldn't go astray, maybe they target a Hartigan sort, or if they're willing to spend a Broad would be a very good pickup.
Draft: Won't have a super eventful draft, should match the bids for Campbell and Gulden regardless of where they come, with their Pick 3 which will likely get knocked back to Pick 4 they'll have to flip a coin for Thilthorpe or Grainger-Barrass, both fill a need and both are top 5 worthy. If Hollands is available that also would be a good selection

 

[Mutineer]

Adelaide
OOC's: Atkins is already confirmed to be leaving, I think the crows will let that one happen regardless of value of contract. best case is Band 2 and Worst case is Band 4 but I think if it is the reported figures (500k for 4 years) they'll get well reimbursed, probably overs for him. Crouch is an interesting one, especially after his incident recently it'll be interesting to see what happens on that front, I don't think it knocks significant dollars off any contract but I wonder if some clubs pullout because of it? A lot of what I'd do here depends on the club that he goes to, if it's Geelong and the compo will only be Band 2 I'm matching and pushing for their middle first rounder, if it's a team without a mid-late first and Band 2 I'm keeping him, and obviously Band 1 you take and laugh to the draft. Hartigan, Knight, Poholke, Crocker, Taylor I'm giving a year or two, Taylor being a speculative pick to begin with should get some more time, the others are good depth. Galluci, Wilson and Mackay I'm delisting or encouraging to find a new club, Mackay maybe gets a year if he wants to go on given his length at the club
Trade/FA: Hately has already nominated the Crows and will be a good pick up, I think the Atkins compo/ their second rounder (depending on which ends up being lower) will probably be moved on for Hately and a later round pick. Outside of Hately there's not much noise around the crows, and I don't think they should be, need to attack the draft
Draft: Adelaide are in a decent spot with their youth I think and just need to bring in the best midfield and forward talents they can, my move would be McDonald at Pick 1 and then best available midfield talent at their GWS first rounder, could be an O'Driscoll or Carroll to pair the WA kids, or possibly a Perkins/ Macrae. Later on they'll pick up Edwards and Newchurch it's fair to assume, they could probably afford to pass on Borlase with their young backline prospects but he'd also make for good depth in the future

North Melbourne
OOC's: Should be looking to retain the majority of the guys they didn't delist really, they've got so many OOC's individually warranting them is difficult so I think that blanket statement does well enough (I guess) Ben Brown I'd have kept but it looks like they're trying to cash out on anyone older than 28 with value, I just worry that they won't be getting what they're expecting for him, I'd say a late first or early second is what they'll net whether or not that's good for them isn't something I can say.
Trade/FA's: Corr has already nominated North as his preferred destination, not a massive name but a hard worker that'll help bring a good work ethic to a young group. Outside of that I haven't really heard anything significant, Wright and Brodie from Gold Coast would be good pickups and would be best 22 early on, if North took on their full contracts, which with their cap space they should be able to do, they could probably get both for a third round pick. Xavier O'Halloran as another big bodied mid that's OOC/ available would be a good pickup as well, well renowned for his leadership. Outside of that I'd get aggressive and go for young contracted players, guys like Duursma, Rowbottom, J Berry, are the young recruits that'll have immediate impact that will be sustained for 8-10 years are the types North should be aggressively targeting, I still think they have something up their sleeve just not sure what.
Draft: Will have plenty of picks you'd assume, although I'm not sure how many more first rounders they'll get in which could be a concern, stacking their list with a bunch of speculative second round picks isn't the best course of action imo. With Pick 2, bid on JUH is obvious then take whoever is left of Hollands or McDonald, if they don't bring in another KPF prospect through trading consider picking Thilthorpe, but that might be a bit of a reach. After that just go best available, they need young talent everywhere so there's no point being picky

Sydney
OOC's: Not many I'd say aren't worth keeping, personally I'd move on Amartey, Knoll, Maibaum and Stoddart and give only 1 year deals to McLean, Rowles and O'Connor. Sign the rest for 2-4 depending on age and position in squad. I'd really look at moving on Melican, I don't think he's shown much improvement over the last couple of years and looks a depth player at best, given his age he may still have some decent trade value.
Trade/FA's: Should be up to their eyes in the race for Cameron, money permitting, but that sort of atheletic and fit forward would suit them well I think as they've shown willingness to move those sorts around to get them involved in the game, which is the sort of thing Jezza needs. Hickey/ Preuss as guys that have shown they can play as a number 1 ruck but are comfortable being depth are the types Sydney need to look at as well, Naismith being down for essentially the entirety of 2021 means that they're relying on guys like McLean to carry the ruckload, and McLean isn't number 1 ruck quality. Apart from that some moneyball type KPD's wouldn't go astray, maybe they target a Hartigan sort, or if they're willing to spend a Broad would be a very good pickup.
Draft: Won't have a super eventful draft, should match the bids for Campbell and Gulden regardless of where they come, with their Pick 3 which will likely get knocked back to Pick 4 they'll have to flip a coin for Thilthorpe or Grainger-Barrass, both fill a need and both are top 5 worthy. If Hollands is available that also would be a good selection

Riley Knight, Patrick Wilson and Ayce Taylor have already been delisted and I suspect Crocker and Mackay would be very, very nervous. Myles Poholke might get another contract...maybe.

I think Borlase is close to a certainty to get drafted by us unless a bid comes in too early, Edwards I'd be 50-50.