Draft Expert PMBangers' 2021 Draft Board - Come for the R1 phantom (post #1591), stay for the Simpsons references

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GUMBLETRON

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Josh Browne is another that may not be a surprise to those that have been watching him through the year, but to people that love their stat's they'd be shocked to see him miss.
Seems a common theme on surprise misses.
 

andleanback

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i would be, but he hasnt got the hype around him that other prospects have gotten, so it is a possibility unfortunately...

i do believe hype has an influence over recruiters.
I wouldn’t say they get sucked into hype. ‘Hype’ for recruiters would be when they’re all in attendance and a player puts on a show, and they all walk away going wow.

id be very surprised if Matty Roberts didn’t get drafted. Sonsie could be a big slider after potentially being a no.1 pick 12 months ago. Long, Jackson and Hamilton are 3 that could be left on the board at the end of night 2. 2 of the biggest sliders this year would have to be Andrews and Lukic though, didn’t fire a shot after being seen as first rounders coming into the year after strong u16 champs in ‘19.
 
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GUMBLETRON

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Recruiters are absolutely impacted by hype, but it's hype about player types and their value in the AFL, rather than individuals - though there's obviously intersection between the two.

Look at the shifts between picking athletes and footballers, where talls are taken, the impact a dominant player like Martin or Bontempelli has on the types taken early, and so on. Those patterns are certainly influenced by collective attitudes (hype, if you like) about what is valuable in a player.

On the other hand, your supporters burning their memberships if you don't pick Dayle Garlett has zero influence whatsoever.

Perhaps the only exception is where a club sees the draft as a short-term opportunity to dig itself out of a bad news hole, as Collingwood did last year.
 
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Lore

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Dec 14, 2015
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Recruiters are absolutely impacted by hype, but it's hype about player types and their value in the AFL, rather than individuals - though there's obviously intersection between the two.

Look at the shifts between picking athletes and footballers, where talls are taken, the impact a dominant player like Martin or Bontempelli has on the types taken early, and so on. Those patterns are certainly influenced by collective attitudes (hype, if you like) about what is valuable in a player.

On the other hand, will your supporters will burn their memberships if you don't pick Dayle Garlett? That has zero influence whatsoever.
There are obvious trends in coaching, like certain styles of play that have shown to be successful in the recent past (pressing, flooding, holding space, pressure, team structures, quick rebound).

We went through a phase of everyone bulking up and focusing on the strength of players when a 1v1 wrestle was desirable, so you wanted a hamburger with the lot, tall enough, strong enough, quick enough, crafty enough.

Then the team-oriented thing spawned by Richmond's flags made it more about line groups working together, so you'd have a really tall guy who isn't very strong, a really strong guy who isn't very quick, a really crafty guy who isn't very tall, all working together to off-set each others weaknesses and exploit that of the opposition.

Suddenly we have a fad for high-pressure, low-possession & team-oriented players being more likely to get drafted to compensate for your flashy Dustin Martin types that will win you the game so long as their opponent is checked by the others. No "i" in team.

Jason Johannisen and fast rebounding HBFs becoming fashionable after the Doggies' flag too. The next one is probably Luke Jackson and athletic rucks after last September, while the coaches look to set up a tandem ruck strategy to emulate the Dees.
 

GWS Goose

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I don’t believe hype influences recruiters one bit.
Recruiters are humans.
They like the rest of us get sucked into hype.

Like the rest of us they will have biases in all sorts of areas, they will over rate first impressions at times, over or underate things they see based on earlier opinions, they will be influenced by others and often over rate their own points of diference.

As a general rule I think recruiters in general are over rating potential upside in comparison to existing performance. I think the industry has skewed too far in that direction.
I also think that as rule currently, those who dont look like footballers dont get picked up. The example I give in Rugby league is Allan Langer, an all time great by any measure, he wold get a run in an under 16 rep team. He is too small, isnt fast enough, he kicks a bit a funny, but what he can do is play football.

Greg Williams or Sam Mitchell are probably AFL equivalents, neither would get drafted at the moment,

It will swing back again.
 

Mangus

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Aug 31, 2009
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Recruiters are humans.
They like the rest of us get sucked into hype.

Like the rest of us they will have biases in all sorts of areas, they will over rate first impressions at times, over or underate things they see based on earlier opinions, they will be influenced by others and often over rate their own points of diference.

As a general rule I think recruiters in general are over rating potential upside in comparison to existing performance. I think the industry has skewed too far in that direction.
I also think that as rule currently, those who dont look like footballers dont get picked up. The example I give in Rugby league is Allan Langer, an all time great by any measure, he wold get a run in an under 16 rep team. He is too small, isnt fast enough, he kicks a bit a funny, but what he can do is play football.

Greg Williams or Sam Mitchell are probably AFL equivalents, neither would get drafted at the moment,

It will swing back again.
Neither Williams or Mitchell did get drafted both had to go the hard way, Carlton rejected Williams from their U19's and he went back to Bendigo I think before being picked up by Geelong. Mitchell played at Box Hill for a year after being overlooked so those guys have always found it tough and had to prove them selves over and over.
 

Eastcoasteagle

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We have 2 interception defenders in Andrews and Adams already on the list Van Rooyen is more that possession tall defender that we don’t have
He's more a forward really, played all his colts forward and it was only really the championships that he went back.
 

Eastcoasteagle

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I have to agree on Roberts and Williams, although Williams is probably less likely to miss out just on being a well performed KPP in the Academy. Josh Browne is another that may not be a surprise to those that have been watching him through the year, but to people that love their stat's they'd be shocked to see him miss.
Early surprise, Caminiti is one I have a sneaky feeling someone in the early 30s or late 20s may take a punt on, and Sheldrick I think will go 15-25, not a massive bolt though
Yes, Josh Browne has an awful kick on the run. He'll definitely slide, and be late to rookie if at all.
 

PMBangers

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Yes, Josh Browne has an awful kick on the run. He'll definitely slide, and be late to rookie if at all.
Even for strengths, outside of accumulation (which is, in the nicest possible way, easy enough at WAFL Colts level) I don't see a POD for him at the next level, even his performances against SA weren't impressive, so much so I can't even remember if he played the first one
 

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Eastcoasteagle

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Even for strengths, outside of accumulation (which is, in the nicest possible way, easy enough at WAFL Colts level) I don't see a POD for him at the next level, even his performances against SA weren't impressive, so much so I can't even remember if he played the first one
Agreed. The only thing I liked is his movement out of a stoppage and by hand he was effective. But that's not enough to get you drafted.
I thought Tunstill who played a very similar role, looked a much better prospect (but still a later selection) and is more draftable.

I like the Sheldrick call for 15-25, I got mixed feedback when I went with it midseason. His size and kicking mainly, but Serong was same spec when drafted so I don't see why Angus beef shouldn't go on with it.
 

Ticky009

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I have to agree on Roberts and Williams, although Williams is probably less likely to miss out just on being a well performed KPP in the Academy. Josh Browne is another that may not be a surprise to those that have been watching him through the year, but to people that love their stat's they'd be shocked to see him miss.
Early surprise, Caminiti is one I have a sneaky feeling someone in the early 30s or late 20s may take a punt on, and Sheldrick I think will go 15-25, not a massive bolt though
Good call on Sheldrick!
 

PMBangers

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So round 1 was pretty well expected until the GWS second pick which is where I'd argue most had the draft turning into a bit of a chaos shitshoot. Funnily enough I think the only real shock in terms of player to go early was Kai Lohmann, but (and not just playing it safe) when you look at his strengths it's an understandable choice to take him early on.

Night 2 is going to be interesting, especially the first 4-5 picks with some of the sliders, would teams consider offering up future firsts for some of the early second round picks? There'd be sides that would think Goater, Johnson and Sonsie are top 10 talents no doubt, so I could see some huge offers coming in. Personally I think Freo should hold and take Johnson, but from there I think most clubs should go for the best offer, whether that's selecting a player high on their board or trading
 

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