Preview Preliminary Final 2016 - Geelong v Sydney, Friday 23 September 7:50pm, MCG

[Badtemperedbadger]

Interesting on SEN they said Swans are 5-1 off 6 day breaks this season.
Cats 0-3 when having 2 or more extra days break than its opposition.

Swans also beat Cats of 6 day break in round 16. (After a tough narrow loss to Dogs)

The longer the week goes on the less confident I am...
but what I am confident about is if we make the Grand Final we win the premiership

This was interesting to a point.
Mainly because it shows why footy media should stick to simple facts rather than be too clever in going over the top with their analysis.

While I agree with the 6 day break being over played the problem with this analysis is that as a scientific analysis (experiment) it would be laughed out of the room.

If you are comparing a variable, in this case results following a six day break; you can only test that one variable against all situations (games).

In this case there are many variables that are simply ignored and no "control" to test the hypothesis (Sydney play really well after a six day break)

Two of the most important variables are 1. Who did they play, and this has already being mentioned in an earlier post (mainly lower placed teams) 2. What players didn't play for the opposition on that particular day. In the Geelong case it was quite a marked difference to who will be playing tomorrow night.

I could go on with numerous other variable, but the point being it was actually a badly thought out piece of logic, in essence a very small and specific part of the overall puzzle.

Does this mean its irrelevant; no. But its hardly significant either when taking all other variable into account.

 

[sauron256]

It's probably in here somewhere but Swans have outscored opponents by something like 240 points in the first 20 minutes of matches this year.

That's how they got us in Round 16.

Must start well.

Henderson to start back, swing forward at half time?

 

[Hamingja]

I've felt that way all week.

If we don't win I'm making a Beeline to the Chris Scott thread.

They are already camping out to get into the thread first. Join the queue

 

[sauron256]

They are already camping out to get into the thread first. Join the queue

Thread will be active, win or lose.

 

[you pick one]

Hearing Mcveigh and Tippett to have fitness tests tomorrow.

 

[Whiskers]

Strangely very nervous about this game, I want to win it bad.
Maybe it's because it's a genuine 50/50 game and normally we are clear favourites or outsiders.
I hate this feeling it's been there since the Hawks game so appreciate the people who bring the positive vibes.
I dreamt last night Motlop missed a set shot banana on the siren to lose by a point. This game is eating away at me and I want it to be over with a win and just enjoy GF week.

 

[you pick one]

Strangely very nervous about this game, I want to win it bad.
Maybe it's because it's a genuine 50/50 game and normally we are clear favourites or outsiders.
I hate this feeling it's been there since the Hawks game so appreciate the people who bring the positive vibes.
I dreamt last night Motlop missed a set shot banana on the siren to lose by a point. This game is eating away at me and I want it to be over with a win and just enjoy GF week.

If you're shitting bricks this week what makes you think you will be any better next week?

 

[Whiskers]

If you're shitting bricks this week what makes you think you will be any better next week?

Ummmm I just wanna make the GF for now.
I'm assuming I'll be my normal self again. I don't usually stress too much.

 

[catempire]

Can we have a breakdown of vs top8 and vs bottom 10 in the 4th quarter?

Top 8: 294 to 157 = 187%
Bottom 10: 410 to 152 = 270%

 

[Big 0]

I'm confused as to how anyone could be confident about this one

 

[you pick one]

I'm confused as to how anyone could be confident about this one

I'm not over confident but it's ours to lose IMO.

 

[dangerwood]

Henderson to start back, swing forward at half time?

Henderson to start fwd. I can almost gaurantee it.

 

[Sttew]

Cats by 24. We will run over Swans in 2H.

Forget what happened at Simonds Stadium earlier this year; Cats were in a form slump then. Can't say Swans' form has been scintillating. Lost to GWS and couldn't bury Adelaide.

 

[Sttew]

I'm confused as to how anyone could be confident about this one

Applies equally to Swans. I'm not overly confident but am s5till predicting a win

 

[FredLeDeux]

I'm confused as to how anyone could be confident about this one

The most extraordinary thing is not that a majority of Geelong posters think we'll win, but that the majority is 80-20, and that even the 20 includes several notorious trolls and football dimwits.

 

[Dawn2Dark]

Most commentators who are favouring Sydney are getting skewed in their vision by two things: Sydney's win against Adelaide and their win over the Cats in round 18. None seem to acknowledges Geelong's last game (which, despite the Hawks subsequent loss to the Dogs after they were cooked, was possibly the game of the season and which also, surprise surprise, came after a "bye") or the Cats players in that game (who differed crucially from the personnel who played against Sydney in round 18 and many of whom showed great hunger and poise against Hawthorn). Im surprised at the blind spot, but we tend to pay attention to things that occurred recently, and forget the quality of something two weeks ago.

I've been surprised by this all week too. Most will tip GIANTS on the back of the week off but completely disregard that notion in terms of our prelim. Pre-finals, David King backed Geelong to go all the way, now having won through to a prelim he's jumped off. A win in finals doesn't need to be convincing. But this seems to happen every year.

It's just like the rationale that West Coast were the form team leading in to finals — you can only beat who's in front of you.

Despite lapses during the season, listening to CS and the likes of PFD, I have confidence in the preparation and mindset of the entire organisation now that the time has finally arrived.

I'm more excited than nervous but this Menzel news has tempered me a bit.

 

[dazbroncos]

They are already camping out to get into the thread first. Join the queue

And the second it turns into a troll fest, the holidays will be early and long.

GO Catters

 

[vinum coupe]

Menzel in extreme doubt.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I do hope sydney play all their injured guys off a 6 day break,it is a good chance to backfire and give us a big advantage.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Menzel in extreme doubt.

Says who?

 

[vinum coupe]

And the worst thing is that the person reporting it would know.

 

[vinum coupe]

Gullan. Groin issue.

 

[YOTC]

Gullan. Groin issue.

I'll massage his groin all night long if I need to!

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Henderson to start fwd. I can almost gaurantee it.

I think its a ruse. They will have noted how longmire ran a defensive fwd on hendo when we last played and will want to put some doubt in the sydney coach's minds as to whether to do it again. Hendo is at his best at CHB.

 

[Nickoo]

Menzel injured apparently. Groin. Bugger bugger bugger.


Andare gatti!!