Quickys 2nd annual list, draft and trade talk thread

[Quicky]

Some of you may remember last year I posted a thread called Quickys list draft and trade talk thread which was aimed at being a comprehensive look at our list and its future direction as we push for a premiership. Well it’s that time of year again so I thought I’d have another crack. Before you get started just a warning it’s a pretty long read. I’d love to get some feedback from the dedicated draft watchers out there (Snoop, Knight, TD) about who we may target specifically.

It may seem a bit premature, perhaps even superfluous, for a thread like this considering our position on the ladder and the fact we are gearing up for what looks to be an interesting finals series. But it’s also true that this is the time that recruiters and the clubs football department start making list decisions. To quote Peter Ryan author of Side by Side:

Recruiters are always busy but it’s not until early July, not long after the time of the midseason break, that they run parallel to what is happening in the rest of the football department. It’s then that lists begin to be assessed and player’s futures are first discussed. It also signals the end of the AFL under-18 national championships.

And let’s be honest here, I’m a footy nerd and love talking about this stuff, so if the club starts making decision about these issues now this is perhaps the best time to accurately gauge their mindset.

Last year while it was obvious that we had developed a well rounded and very promising list - it was also true that we were some distance from really competing with the best teams in the competition in Geelong and St Kilda. We had a young side but we had some glaring list deficiencies and it seemed we were still a few years away in terms of maturity and experience from being able to bridge that gap.

In its vision for the future the club made no secret of the fact they were aiming high declaring a premiership was the key objective within the next three years. With that in mind the club was very aggressive in its trading last year and was successful, against recent history, in snaring the big names of Darren Jolly and Luke Ball. It also added to its depth by recruiting fast midfielders in Simon Buckley, Ben Sinclair and Tom Hunter, and a project KPD and ruck in Carter and McNamara respectively.

The recruitment of Jolly has addressed our deficiency in the ruck, the recruitment of Ball has given us a harder edge in midfield, and collectively they have made us much more competitive in the clearances. The form and development of Dawes and Reid has made us much more settled in our KP’s at either end. Thomas, Wellingham and Didak have all become more consistent midfielders for us.

This has taken what was an already very competitive and well balanced list from last year to outright top of the ladder this year. But there is always room for improvement and the next few years may well determine our success or failure as a premiership contender as well as our stability in the years to come.

As such, there are some important questions that need to be answered:

- How do we best approach the upcoming 2010/11 draft period?
- Where do we need to improve our list?
- Who should we target in the draft?
- Who should we target in trade (if any)?
- Who on our list needs to be delisted?
- How should we approach the upcoming compromised draft years?

 

[Quicky]

Our list:

To view our complete list click on this link.

Back line:

The backline continues to be a real strength of our team. It has quality, it has depth and it is settled. Presti still forms the nucleus of the group and is the only concern long term that will need to be replaced. Reid has overtaken Brown, who is quality in his own right, as preferred CHB. This has given the defensive unit a more well balanced feel as not only is Reid a good stopper but he is dangerous on the rebound. His inexperience is the only real weakness in this group but so far it has not shown. Between Shaw, O’Brien and Toovey we have most opposition small and medium forwards adequately covered. Maxwell is still best utilized in a sweeper role and while he can be exploited in one on one situations his ability to get across and support our other defenders and his leadership is invaluable to the team. Goldsack too has come in to the team with great success. He provides versatility and seems to have found confidence. While Shaw is our main avenue for rebound all of our defenders bar Presti are more than capable themselves making it difficult for the opposition to completely shut down our run off the half back line – our midfielders also offer plenty of support.

In the twos we have also been very clever at looking towards the future. Brown has had an injury interrupted year but he is our long term replacement for Presti. Anthony has also been trialled at full back in the twos and is another worthy option. Outside of this we have also switched Keeffe to defence and recruited Carter as potential KPD’s. Both have shown good signs in this role in the VFL. Blight and Buckley have also played some footy in defence and offer depth as offensive half back flanks if required, and Young and Francis as shut down small defenders.

Draft/Trade needs

While I feel we have great depth in defense and a well balanced group if I had to pinpoint a need it would be a developing shut down small defender as depth for Toovey and O’Brien. Young has been used in this role at VFL level, and has handled it with aplomb, but if the reports are true it seems that his talent may well be wasted in this role long term and a position in the midfield more fitting. Outside of Francis we don’t seem to have much depth here and it is something we could look at. One option may be to rookie Kris Pendlebury who has been playing on taller opponents in the VFL but may be a good fit for smaller opponents in the AFL. It may be a cheap way to address a depth need. Outside of this I am happy with our direction regarding our key position defenders and don’t think there are any other glaring deficiencies. Perhaps we could look at an offensive HB although we tend to go for more well rounded players in our defense.

Midfield:

In the past two years we have managed to develop a midfield group from being merely competitive to probably second only behind the Cats. We now have a very reliable and complimentary group of clearance midfielders in the right age bracket in Ball, Pendlebury, Swan and Wellingham. Ball has displaced O’Bree in the side, while Swan, Pendles and Wellingham have all lifted their games, and the team is much more dangerous as a result. Thomas has made his long awaited transition from forward to midfielder and has been fantastic. Didak has improved immensely in his ability to deal with tags and is more consistent as a result and probably one of the better mids running around right now. Johnson has found something extra when I thought it was beyond him and has given us another line-breaking linking midfielder. Last year I thought our biggest deficiency was our lack of a tagger which we have addressed somewhat by the introduction of Macaffer who has been given some important defensive roles and has handled them well. While we still have no strict tagger we have a number of players capable of defensive roles and the midfield units collective pressure seems to have addressed the need to a large degree.

I think the most encouraging thing about the midfield is that even though it is now functioning as one of the best in the comp there is still plenty of upside and depth. I haven’t mentioned Beams or Sidebottom yet as they have been played as forwards this year but they will no doubt come in over the next few years and improve us even further. We also have some great depth in Blair who has come into the 22 and cemented his position; McCarthy who is a forgotten talent, and Thomas has shown plenty in his debut season. As for quicker outside types we are developing Sinclair and Hunter, with Sinclair in particular showing a bit in the VFL. Young, Blight and Rounds all have the potential to move into midfield but are currently developing their games in different roles. The last three have the talent to be anything and may surprise a few in the coming years.

Draft/Trade needs

Like our defense we have a very balanced group of midfielders both now and looking toward the future. I think the biggest deficiency in this group is long term replacements for Didak, Davis, Johnson and Lockyer who are all outside types and are all at the pointy ends of their careers. I think it’s important we look for quick, classy, skilled midfielders/forwards with good goal sense. We need to look for the sort of player that has the ability to change a game with their creativity. I think in regards to inside midfielders we currently have enough depth.

Forward line:

In recent years our forward line has been the biggest concern for our team. All last year and the early part on this season it has really failed to function. Some of our more decorated small forwards in Davis and Medhurst have been out of form, while our KP’s have failed to deal with the retirement of Rocca. The emergence of Dawes is the biggest story in the forward line with him and Cloke forming a good KP combo. I think Cloke can improve and it’s frustrating that he seems to be treading water and just being thereabouts in his performances. Brown too as a pinch hitting ruck come forward has been great across the half forward line as a marking target, in his linking work and is also dangerous goal scoring option. Him and Jolly rotating through has been very effective. Sidebottom and Beams have been playing almost exclusively as half forwards this year and have been good especially considering the form of Davis and Medhurst. Dick, Lockyer and Macaffer have all been used forward and have played their roles with success.

The biggest issue has been our small forwards and the club has been proactive in addressing this issue from within the list. Rounds and Reed have both been switched forward in the VFL and have both been very good. Rounds in particular has gotten close to earning his debut in the seniors. Anthony provides a ready-made replacement for key forward and Rusling has gotten back playing VFL after his injury issues.

Draft/Trade needs

The biggest need in the forward line is long term replacements for Davis, Medhurst, Didak and Lockyer. In a similar vein to our need in midfield we need to look for a creative small forward who can kick goals – it’s an interchangeable need. We also lack a top quality KPF right now so if the unlikely happened and we had the opportunity to trade for one we would be stupid not to look at the option. If this is not possible, and with Ruslings injury concerns in mind it would be prudent to look at a developing key position forward at some stage in the draft.

Ruck:

Our ruck has been a weakness of the team for longer than I care to remember probably stretching back to Monkhursts heyday. The recruitment of Jolly in the last offseason has addressed this weakness. Jolly and Brown are providing a surprisingly strong ruck combo and as long as Brown maintains his form should continue to. It’s the form, or lack-of, from Wood and Fraser which is most concerning. Fraser’s injury issues seem to have finally caught up with him and I would not be surprised if this was his last year. Wood seems to have gone backwards in his development but given Frasers situation becomes a very important player for the balance of our list. Keeffe is now being developed as a defender. Shae Mac is a long shot as a developing ruckman.

Draft/Trade needs

Fraser looks like he may retire so a replacement for him is our biggest need. We will likely recruit Witts as a NSW scholarship holder at season’s end as a developing ruckman but his stress fracture issues may mean he is missing in action early on. If we were to lose Wood which has been rumored (rightly or wrongly) finding a ready-made replacement would become critical. I think he will stay so another developing ruckman, preferably with the versatility to play forward, could be looked at.

 

[Quicky]

Our rookies, NSW Scholarship holders and International rookie prospects:

Considering the compromised drafts the importance of our NSW and International rookies has become greater. It is a clever way we have been able to utilise the rules to help create a group of players we can draft during the compromised draft years. As such I thought I’d have a look at our NSW scholarship holders as well as our International rookie prospects and when we are eligible to draft them. Thanks to TRS for putting together most of this info on the FMW thread and helping explain some of the draft rules for me.

Our current rookie list:
Carter (1st of 3 years)
Francis (2nd of 3 years)
Hunter (1st of 3 years)
Keeffe (2nd of 3 years)
McNamara (1st of 3 years)*
Reed (2nd of 3 years)*
Blair (2nd of 3 years)**

*Outside the rookie list
** Elevated rookie (Blair is likely to be put on the senior list in 2011)

Eligible in 2010:
Young (NSW, outside rookie list)
Perry (NSW, outside rookie list)
Witts (NSW, outside rookie list)
Cribbin (Irish) >> Has been preselected (signed)
O'Kennedy (Irish) >> Unlikely to be preselected

Eligible in 2011:
Hartley (NSW, outside rookie list)
Yakimov (NSW, outside rookie list)
Mooney (Irish) >> Has been preselected (signed)

Eligible in 2013:
Edwards (NSW, outside rookie list)
Haggerty (NSW, outside rookie list)

Just to clarify some points on the rookie rules:

- We are allowed to have up to six rookie listed players on our list.
- NSW scholarship holders are outside our rookie list in their first year.
- International rookies are outside our list in their first year.
- Irish players do not qualify as an international rookie and take up one of the six positions on our rookie list.
- NSW scholarship holders, International rookies, Irish players and players that have not been registered with an AFL club for the last 3 years can be pre-selected by the club. This means we allocate a rookie pick to them and no other club can pick them – although we lose that pick obviously.

Check out TRS’s FMW thread for full details on our future magpies.

There has been talk that the AFL may loosen rookie rules to allow 8 rookies instead of 6; introduce the provision for two mature age rookies; and the option for an additional third year for rookies if it is agreed to by the player. These rules would help immensely with our list management if they come into place but as far as I know they have not been officially introduced.

EDIT: Mansons Haircut has informed that rookies are now offerred 3 years retrospectively as opposed to just two. Once I can confirm this for sure i'll update the details accordingly.

2nd EDIT: Having done some further investigation and found the player rules document i'll clarify some of the rules.

1 - Rookies are now allowed for up to 3 years as long as the player and club agree.
2 - We are now allowed an extra 2 rookie list spots during the 2010, 2011, 2012 seasons. This allows us a maximum of 8 rookies in these years.
3 - We can have an additional 3 NSW scholarship rookies outside this quota of up to 8 rookies.
4 - I couldn't find anything in regards to mature age rookies.

Delistings:

We will need to find room on the senior list for Blair and decisions need to be made on the futures of Francis and Keeffe who are in the last year of their rookie contracts. We either delist, re-rookie or put on the senior list. I’d say we may look to re-rookie Francis and senior list Keeffe. Reed and McNamara also officially come onto the rookie list next year. Witts and Young also look likely to be rookied with Young a chance to come straight onto the senior list. That means we need to find 2-3 spots on the senior list plus we are required to draft a minimum of 3 players in the national draft. That means we need to find 5-6 spots (depending on whether we senior list Young) on the senior list.

Retire: Fraser, O'Bree, (Lockyer a chance)

Delist: Cook, Corrie, Barham, (Francis and Rusling a chance)

I think Fraser and O'Bree are likely retirements and Lockyer may be a chance too, although I’d like to see him go around another year. Cook and Corrie look gone and our need to create spots on the senior list sees Barham and Rusling vulnerable. Francis may be in trouble on the rookie list. I think this year may see some very stiff players get cut from the list. The competition for list spots may see Young come in as a rookie outside the list as opposed to straight on the senior list.

Our picks:

I’m not going to go into too much detail about the compromised draft but to say that this draft has pretty much been handed to the GC and GWS gets that privilege in 2013. It’s really diluted the draft pool but Hine and our recruiters have been pretty successful with our late picks and rookies so there is still plenty to feel bullish about. If we were to finish first on the ladder as we sit now our picks would be > 25, 42, and 59. For each position lower we finish our pick would also be one lower.

Draft Strategy:

I think it is a credit to Derek Hine, Jason Taylor, our recruitment staff and the football department in general for how they have developed our list. It has quality and depth and has great balance with very few deficiencies. The biggest issue is the lack of a true top class key position forward but Dawes is mitigating that issue to a large degree. If we could trade for one we would be the complete list, someone like Pavlich would be perfect but probably a pipe dream. Outside of this we are really only addressing depth and future needs. Our biggest priority is to get clever midfielders/forwards with class, creativity and goal sense. Outside of this we may look at a developing ruck, key forward or small defender. Given how strong our depth we might also see us trade away some of our depth if we think it will improve our list. For example we may try to recruit a ready-made ruckman and would likely need to lose a player to achieve this. Overall though I think we will be pretty quiet this draft and trade period and stick to recruiting the best creative forward/midfielder that is available at our picks.




Appendices

Appendix 1 - draft rule clarifications

I've done a bit more digging and can clarify the rookie rules a bit further.

This is from the AFL player rules document:

1 - Rookies are now eligible fot a 3rd year as long as the player and club agree.
2 - We are now allowed an extra 2 rookie list spots during the 2010, 2011, 2012 seasons. This allows us a maximum of 8 rookies in these years.
3 - We can have 3 NSW scholarship rookies outside this quota of up to 8 rookies.
4 - In the seasons 2010-2012 you can have two of your rookie listed players older than the maximum age of 23. They still have to be included within the rookie quota however.


This means that we can have up to 8 rookies (minus 1 list spot for every veteran listed player) and an additional 3 NSW/international scholarship players. Theoritically we could have 11 rookies. Presti and Lockyer are our two veteran listed players in 2010, Johnson and Davis are eligible for veterans status in 2011.

Appendix 2 - Likely trade scenario:

Delist:Corrie, Cook, Barham, O'Bree, Fraser

National draft:
Pick 1 - Draft creative small forward mid
Pick 2 - Draft KPF or Ruck
Pick 3 - Young
Pick 4 - Blair rookie elevation
Pick 5 - Reed rookie elevation

Rookie draft:
Pick 1 - Cribbin (Irish rookie)
Pick 2 - McNamara (comes onto the list after being an international rookie outside the list in first year of contract.

*If we delist Francis instead of promoting Reed we would have a third open pick in the national draft to play around with but Reed would remain on the rookie list. This seems an equally likely option to me.

 

[Swooop]

Quicky that is an awesome effort!

I don't know where to start with a sensible reply other than to say great read and thank you!

Agree KPF and ruck are no 1 priorities to consolidate over the coming drafts.

PS I'm glad you added in brackets that the rookie O'Kennedy was Irish, as i would never have guessed it

 

[Bay Pie]

Retire: Fraser, O'Bree, (Lockyer a chance)

Delist: Cook, Corrie, Barham, (Francis and Rusling a chance)

Totally agree with this. Given his injury problems, Francis may get delisted and re-rookied if you can. Otherwise a chance of a late pick in the ND.

I think Rusling may get 1 more year if we move on/retire 5 players.

I think Keefe was on a special 3 year rookie deal, due to not playing AFL for longer then 3 years, so he'd have another year to go. Would need this confirmed??

Keefe, to me, is being developed as a back-up ruckman that plays predominately back. 20% ruck, 80% back as the 2nd ruck really needs to do far more then just ruck.

I'd say draft targets are pretty close with a quick HFF/FP & ruck most likely options.

If we retain Rus, we have Cloke, Dawes, JA & Rus who can all fill 2 of the KF roles.

 

[Soul_Pie]

Awesome effort Quicky, not much more I can add to that.

Our ruck stocks are probably our number one priority at this stage, I don't see much of a future for Fraser at the moment and Wood has not shown enough to suggest he is a player to pin our hopes around. (I hope he proves us all wrong, though) I think we'll be fine yet for another year or so given the performances of Big Leroy Brown and Darren Jolly but obviously these blokes are not long term players and we need to start looking at the next generation of Collingwood ruckmen.

I'm not sure how strong this coming draft is in terms of big men or whether we will have to look at making a play at someone like Goldstein or Leuenberger, mind you young ruckmen of their calibre will not come cheaply at all and I'm not sure if we're in a position to be offering them a lot anyway.

I also reckon we should throw a whole lot of cash at the Sydney ruck coach who seems to get so much out of the ruckmen up there. The development of Mumford has been astonishing.

 

[knightwheelrqr]

I'm yet the read your whole piece but at a quick glance very detailed and I'm looking forward to reading your piece.


Right now my draft plans:

Round 1: I'd be looking at the best available forward. I see a player in the mold of last years Luke Tapscott or Mitch Duncan to possibly drop and a slider like this who could possibly fit into this team would be ideal. I'm not confident of Davis and Medhurst long term performing to the levels they have in recent years so I really consider this top priority because they do have their form dips and I think a player in that mold could play games from year 1 which is ideal with our premiership window being wide open. Where as if we went KPP we would have to wait for them to develop for another 3-4 years where they would have no immediate influence.

A few names I have on that list who fit that mold for a 1st rounder at this stage include: Josh Caddy, Jayden Pitt, Kieran Harper and Jed Lamb are some of the players who I would strongly consider.

Tom Lynch (Vic Country) is probably my other option. KPF (which I know many will favour), I like him because he to me has the high potential feel and comes from a basketball background. Always a big fan of those types. Have in as an early - mid 2nd rounder who could go higher at this stage, but I'd certainly look at him seriously because I can see him becoming a quality KPF.

Round 2: Best available KPF. I know I’ve always been confident with our current KPP stocks, I have recently been swayed to view another KPF + KPD a priority. This draft unlike last year has some reasonable KPF + KPD stocks and while they won't be able to contribute straight away necessarily I am now favouring adding more depth simply because we look so settled in every position on the ground that we can afford to have some more depth developing in reserve. Hard to say who it could be at this position but possibly Darcy Barden could be the selection. Also Sam Mitchell (KPF) is the other that I'd look at with this selection at this stage.


Round 3 *assuming final selection*: Tom Young. Has been fantastic in the VFL. I'd put him straight onto the senior list with whatever will be our final selection in the national draft. If we add x2 forwards, KPF, KPD and back/ possible utility in Young this would probably be quite a good draft in my view. Another ruckman could be a possibility depending on the amount of selections we use.


*Don't discount Blair, Reed or Keeffe being upgraded depending on the amount of delistings and retirements at the end of the season.*


Rookies:

Nathan Phillips from the WAFL who is a mid/forward is a big chance as a rookie or possibly even late in the ND. Has the feel a little bit of a Paul Medhurst in ways. Strong overhead, strong tackler and is having a great season having pushed up into the midfield this season from a forward role. Mature ager who could possibly break into a senior side if given a chance.

Charlie Riewoldt (younger brother of Jack). Not big or tall but like Jack is a natural footballer and more importantly a late developer. Is a small - medium forward but I don't necessarily consider that to be a bad thing as mentioned earlier with my concerns for Medhurst and Davis long term. Another player who has high upside who is far from ready made and right now not in many peoples draft plans, but I rate him and I see him developing into an AFL quality footballer. I’d take him with a rookie selection, no question.

Kyle Hartigan. Missed out on getting drafted last year but I'm still a fan. Looking pretty reasonable in the VFL this season and I would love to see him added onto our list as a depth backman. More readymade than most, strong overhead and regularly beats his man. Would take definitely take him in the rookie draft if available.

 

[Thommo 42]

Fraser won't retire, and it would seriously hurt our depth if he did.

He may seek a trade, and get it, but he won't retire.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Draft/Trade needs

Fraser looks like he may retire so a replacement for him is our biggest need. We will likely recruit Witts as a NSW scholarship holder at season’s end as a developing ruckman but his stress fracture issues may mean he is missing in action early on. If we were to lose Wood which has been rumored (rightly or wrongly) finding a ready-made replacement would become critical. I think he will stay so another developing ruckman, preferably with the versatility to play forward, could be looked at.

Here's the guy we should target. 200cm mobile Victorian boy whom we've shown interest in in the past and been rebuffed, but despite his good form this year in the Swans reserves he hasn't gotten opportunities. He's had injury concerns in the past but has been on top of them this season. I'd be surprised if we weren't sounding him out.

Our rookies, NSW Scholarship holders and International rookie prospects:

Eligible in 2010:
Young (NSW, outside rookie list)
Perry (NSW, outside rookie list)
Witts (NSW, outside rookie list)
Cribbin (Irish)
O'Kennedy (Irish)

Eligible in 2011:
Hartley (NSW, outside rookie list)
Yakimov (NSW, outside rookie list)
Parsons (NSW, outside rookie list)*

*Listed on the Collingwood website but isn’t in TRS’s FMW thread so not sure what the go is with Parsons.

O'Kennedy won't be picked up by us. Parsons is no longer on scholarship, whether the club website lists him or not.

Great job with this thread, Quicky.

 

[knightwheelrqr]

Also I should add my predicted list changes:

Delist: Cook, Corrie (possible: Rusling, Francis)

Retirements: O'Bree, (possible: Prestigiacomo, Lockyer, Fraser)


GC targets (though I'm not convinced any will sign these are my possibles): Ben Reid (earlier on this season though this might happen, but if he keeps his spot in the side which looks likely I don't see why he would move), Cameron Wood (looks increasingly likely with his poor form this season), Jack Anthony (don't want to see him go and really hope he doesn't leave. I see him developing into a successful backman in the James Clement mold who also could move forward when things are not happening)

Trade bait: I really don't consider anyone trade bait and the club and would be mainly willing to trade draft picks away for players who might be able to have an impact or players who's careers we think that we can turn around. But Cameron Wood and Jack Anthony would be popular trade targets from opposition clubs. I'd personally do everything I can to retain both players because I still view both have a future with our club, but if it means a serious upgrade of talent then either player could come into talks.

Also some trade targets to consider: Mitch Morton (will depend on his position in the team at seasons end whether he becomes considered a disposable player or not), James Sellar (possible tall utility who can play ruck, back or forward. handy for depth, depends on how highly valued from within the club), Richard Tambling (every season he plods along but never seems to make progress, depending on how highly valued he is at Richmond he could be a possibility), Daniel Wells (Has had his injury troubles and a bit like Tambling has never really reached his potential fully again depends on how highly valued he is with his club), David Armitage (Just hasn't received the chances this season that he has deserved and if available is another who could be looked at, again depends on how highly his club value him).

Possible for scrap heap: Steven King, Jamie Charman (and other players of similiar experience who could be of value). Would obviously just be depth for Jolly, but having them on the list for a season or two and able to step in could be possible.

Possible mature age recruits: Myles Sewell (best player in the VFL and could come into any side and make their best 22 in my view), Orren Stephenson (immediate ruck help, best ruckman in the VFL competition and depth to cover Jolly. Not amazing around the ground but can beat AFL quality ruckman). Various other names could come up but these are just two possibilities.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Also some trade targets to consider: Mitch Morton (will depend on his position in the team at seasons end whether he becomes considered a disposable player or not), James Sellar (possible tall utility who can play ruck, back or forward. handy for depth, depends on how highly valued from within the club), Richard Tambling (every season he plods along but never seems to make progress, depending on how highly valued he is at Richmond he could be a possibility), Daniel Wells (Has had his injury troubles and a bit like Tambling has never really reached his potential fully again depends on how highly valued he is with his club), Daniel Armitage (Just hasn't received the chances this season that he has deserved and if available is another who could be looked at, again depends on how highly his club value him).

Any relation to David?

 

[Quicky]

I think Keefe was on a special 3 year rookie deal, due to not playing AFL for longer then 3 years, so he'd have another year to go. Would need this confirmed??

Yeah I vaguely remember reading something about that but i'm not 100% what the deal is with it. If we could leave him as a rookie it would help us with our senior list. It would make the rookie list pretty tight though, with Shae and Reed coming onto the rookie list if we kept Francis we'd have no positions available. Cribbin looks a likely addition so we may need a spot for him. That would leave us unable to draft any rookies this year. It's starting to get very tight for list spots and I think we may have some stiff players delisted.

I'm not sure how strong this coming draft is in terms of big men or whether we will have to look at making a play at someone like Goldstein or Leuenberger, mind you young ruckmen of their calibre will not come cheaply at all and I'm not sure if we're in a position to be offering them a lot anyway.

As TRS mentions Currie looks like a good player to chase and might be doable price wise.

Fraser won't retire, and it would seriously hurt our depth if he did.

He may seek a trade, and get it, but he won't retire.

I'm not so sure but I definitely see where you're coming from. I feel his time might be up. We need to make list space somewhere and he might be one of the stiff players to make way.

Here's the guy we should target. 200cm mobile Victorian boy whom we've shown interest in in the past and been rebuffed, but despite his good form this year in the Swans reserves he hasn't gotten opportunities. He's had injury concerns in the past but has been on top of them this season. I'd be surprised if we weren't sounding him out.

O'Kennedy won't be picked up by us. Parsons is no longer on scholarship, whether the club website lists him or not.

Great job with this thread, Quicky.

Totally agree on Currie. I've liked everything i've seen and read about him. Would love to get him and I think we have the depth to trade to Sydney for him coupled with a good trading history with them.

I thought that may have been the case with Parsons - post updated accordingly.

Interesting on O'Kennedy but getting on our rookie list will be tight this year so doesn't surprise me. Cribbin from his footage is one i'm excited about but unfortunately as an Irishman takes up a rookie spot.

 

[Optimax]

Currie put on any weight or is he still and absolute rake good at small man stuff?

 

[Quicky]

Also I should add my predicted list changes:

Delist: Cook, Corrie (possible: Rusling, Francis)

Retirements: O'Bree, (possible: Prestigiacomo, Lockyer, Fraser)


GC targets (though I'm not convinced any will sign these are my possibles): Ben Reid (earlier on this season though this might happen, but if he keeps his spot in the side which looks likely I don't see why he would move), Cameron Wood (looks increasingly likely with his poor form this season), Jack Anthony (don't want to see him go and really hope he doesn't leave. I see him developing into a successful backman in the James Clement mold who also could move forward when things are not happening)

Trade bait: I really don't consider anyone trade bait and the club and would be mainly willing to trade draft picks away for players who might be able to have an impact or players who's careers we think that we can turn around. But Cameron Wood and Jack Anthony would be popular trade targets from opposition clubs. I'd personally do everything I can to retain both players because I still view both have a future with our club, but if it means a serious upgrade of talent then either player could come into talks.

Also some trade targets to consider: Mitch Morton (will depend on his position in the team at seasons end whether he becomes considered a disposable player or not), James Sellar (possible tall utility who can play ruck, back or forward. handy for depth, depends on how highly valued from within the club), Richard Tambling (every season he plods along but never seems to make progress, depending on how highly valued he is at Richmond he could be a possibility), Daniel Wells (Has had his injury troubles and a bit like Tambling has never really reached his potential fully again depends on how highly valued he is with his club), David Armitage (Just hasn't received the chances this season that he has deserved and if available is another who could be looked at, again depends on how highly his club value him).

Possible for scrap heap: Steven King, Jamie Charman (and other players of similiar experience who could be of value). Would obviously just be depth for Jolly, but having them on the list for a season or two and able to step in could be possible.

Possible mature age recruits: Myles Sewell (best player in the VFL and could come into any side and make their best 22 in my view), Orren Stephenson (immediate ruck help, best ruckman in the VFL competition and depth to cover Jolly. Not amazing around the ground but can beat AFL quality ruckman). Various other names could come up but these are just two possibilities.

I didn't go into depth about the possibility of losing players to GC but is a definite possibility. Losing Reid would be an absolute disaster for our list but I don't see it happening. Anthony and Wood are definitely vulnerable to GC as they are out of the side and quality. Both are very very important for our depth and for our long term plans. It's really critical that we retain both for the strength of our list. If we lost either however i'd hope we get adequate compensation and it would make the national draft more interesting.

I think of the recycled players you mention their respective sides would be asking too much in compensation and those types may well get sucked up by GC anyway. From that list Charman and Stephenson are two i'd find interesting that would fill needs on our list although i'd prefer Currie.

 

[Quicky]

Currie put on any weight or is he still and absolute rake good at small man stuff?

He's listed at 97kg which is plenty solid.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Reid won't be going to the GC. Players who play nearly every game of the season in a top 4 club, and are wanted by the club, just don't leave very often.

Goldsack would be our biggest worry, because he's playing out of his skin and will still be on the verge of getting dropped when Heater comes back.

 

[Swooop]

Reid won't be going to the GC. Players who play nearly every game of the season in a top 4 club, and are wanted by the club, just don't leave very often.

Goldsack would be our biggest worry, because he's playing out of his skin and will still be on the verge of getting dropped when Heater comes back.

Is Goldsack the type of guy who could play other roles in the team, eg like eg Lockyer has done.

Could he play wing or HFF?

They may give Shaw another week anyway, he looked pretty stiff and sore the other week.

 

[Quicky]

Reid won't be going to the GC. Players who play nearly every game of the season in a top 4 club, and are wanted by the club, just don't leave very often.

Goldsack would be our biggest worry, because he's playing out of his skin and will still be on the verge of getting dropped when Heater comes back.

If we were to lose Goldy i'd be hoping it was for a player like Currie. I'd hate to lose him to GC because we wouldn't get fair compensation given his experience and where we picked him up in the draft. He's only contracted to the end of this year as well.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

I definitely think Goldsack could play wing, no question in my mind.

 

[knightwheelrqr]

Notes on Quicky’s analysis:

Defence:
In recent seasons I have really been onto the idea of stealing a small defender but I’m beginning to cool somewhat on the idea. Defences these days are often much bigger if you look at St Kilda and Geelong. I think our backline is probably better than both at handling dangerous small forwards with Toovey who is a great shutdown backman, Harry O’Brien who can play any size (ideally I see him playing more medium size but can still chop and change) and with few teams if any able to exploit this I don’t really see this as being a priority.
Having: Toovey, Presti, O’Brien, Shaw, Reid, Maxwell.
Depth: Goldsack, Brown.
Is huge. And has the versatility to cover any forwardline. Really settled group who I’m really tempted to leave as is. Tom Young short term could possibly add to that depth down back though I agree that won’t be his permanent position. Far too talented to play in a negating role.

Midfield:
A tagger if you can get a quality guy like a Ryan Crowley then you take him, but you don’t need to overpay for a Adam Selwood or even Kane Cornes (though the latter is probably the better option of the pair). I don’t really see it a great need because it’s not something I’ve necessarily seen as a bad thing under a Mick Malthouse system.
In terms of outside midfielders which I agree on I think further depth would be handy. The types of forwards I’m looking at I’d be looking at to also be able to play those types of roles in addition to playing forward. Jayden Pitt is an example of one who can play outside midfield who has incredible foot skills but also can push forward. In an outside player I’d be stressing incredible footskills and I think we will with Nathan Buckley now one of our coaching staff.

Forward:
Next season I’d want Sidebottom and Beams to spend more time in the midfield and again next year I’m sure questions will come up of Davis and Medhurst and Lockyer as you mentioned could retire at the end of the season so our depth is really lowering in this area and fast which is why a small/ medium forward is my priority.

Rucks:
Could come down to whether or not Fraser retires or not or if Wood goes to GC. I’d probably say if we can get a Charman or King off the scrap heap, do it. Orren Stephenson again as mentioned earlier is another possibility. But at this stage I’d probably focus on improving our other areas (assuming both Fraser and Wood are still with us).


As for your list changes:
Not so sure Fraser will retire. I won’t deny it is a possibility, but I think he will continue for atleast another season unless he feels really crippled by injury and doesn’t think he can go on. Has been an outstanding servant for the club, but he isn’t even 30 despite what some might think. I think he will battle it out for atleast another season, but no guarantee.
Prestigiacomo I’d add to the might column, but his form is so good that another season would be great!
Barham I’m not so sure he will go. I know I’m a fan but I value the things he does. He is pretty unique to our list and his form has really gone up to a new level this season. I see him as being a top 30 guy on the list and with few outside mids I think he is safe for another season.

Draft strategy: “Our biggest priority is to get clever midfielders/forwards with class, creativity and goal sense.” *Bingo* Just my thinking and that's exactly what I'm looking for with our first selection.

I'd also add a KPF (probably in the ND) and KPD (possible in the RD, though if there is one we like we can select in ND), small defender I have always really till now considered a priority. If there is one we like we could look into this, but our backline is flooding with depth and I wouldn't really add another small/ mediums just because there is already well and truely enough depth down back. Outside of this we are really only addressing depth and future needs. Our biggest priority is to get clever midfielders/forwards with class, creativity and goal sense. Outside of this we may look at a developing ruck, key forward or small defender. Given how strong our depth we might also see us trade away some of our depth if we think it will improve our list. For example we may try to recruit a ready-made ruckman and would likely need to lose a player to achieve this. Overall though I think we will be pretty quiet this draft and trade period and stick to recruiting the best creative forward/midfielder that is available at our picks.

 

[Zahki]

Wow fantastic write up Quicky, great stuff. I reckon this trade week the club should go balls out for a quality key forward, Dawes is coming along nicely, but he's not quite the forward we need yet. White we still have Davis, Medhurst and Didak I think our forward line would be hugely improved with the addition of a mature key forward. Dunno who we could reasonably get though.

If that doesn't pan out then a ruck and small forward would be the obvious next gaps to fill.

 

[Heater39]

I don't think Fraser will retire, we need him as depth imo.

Delist- Cook, Corrie, Barham, Rusling (pending vfl form), Buckley would be the only other one in danger but he'll probably get at least 1 more year.

Retire- O'Bree, Lockyer and possibly Presti

Elevate- Reed, Young, Blair, Keefe

Francis will probably be delisted if it's his last year on the rookie list

Anthony and Goldsack may seek a trade

I think we should look at a small forward and a mature aged KPD in the draft, the other selections best available.

 

[Paddywhackers]

I definitely think Goldsack could play wing, no question in my mind.

Yep, I agree with that.

 

[Dundalis]

We should be looking to get players with elite foot skills over the next 2 or 3 drafts. I feel like we concentrate on battlers with great work ethic over kids with geniune elite skills. Which is ok, as we've got some decent players out of it, but we need both types. Players like Didak don't come around very often but if we had another player like him we would be quite good. Not that we aren't currently, but I think we could really do with another player with absolute elite foot skills, as we simply don't have very many. In fact Didak's probably the only one I'd say has absolute elite disposal, then below him are a few players whom I'd categorise as very good. Also when I say elite foot skills, I don't just mean short passing, I also mean someone with quality depth. There are plenty of players going around whom are very good kicks, but only within 40- 45m.

Hopefully we can do some trades with GC and move up in the draft. Anthony or Rusling and pick 25 for a top 15 or top 12 pick for example. We would probably like to keep one or the other for insurance purposes, but don't absolutely require both IMO. Neither are KP players, and only really pinch hit in the role. They are third talls.

 

[Paddywhackers]

Anthony and Goldsack may seek a trade

I think we should look at a small forward and a mature aged KPD in the draft, the other selections best available.

It would be unlikely Goldsack will see a trade. Really establishing himself (again) now this time he may stay in the side for good. Well until he gets old in football terms. He seems to have really improved. IMO, and this can happen to players after massive hits, he had stagnated since he had his nose caved in and looked to have done an ACL at the same time against the Lions two years ago. But now, he looks to be flying in his development.

Anthony is a good option for a trade.

I would not go for a mature KPD though. We have Reid who is developing into a star, than there is Brown. Keefe is developing nicely. OBrien kind of plays tall. Even Anthony may turn into a KPD.

Not too sure who we will go for in the draft to be honest. We seem to hava all bases covered. Maybe they should go for the best player available. They have my faith that's for sure.