Preview R2: Changes v Port

[1970crow]

I wouldn't be surprised if we go in unchanged.

Gut feel is Knight in for McGovern or Millera.

 

[GROTTO]

This is my concern. Which means we need to lose to see the back of these guys. We win and the lineup remains unchanged (except for the young guys who might get a rest).

Selection committee historically has responded only when our team is humiliated on the park.

"Why change a winning formula?"

"Why overreact to a narrow loss?"

 

[GROTTO]

Gut feel is Knight in for McGovern or Millera.

Knight for Milera
Hartigan for McGovern

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Knight for Milera
Hartigan for McGovern

Is this your prediction or what you'd like to see. Assume it's the former.

 

[GROTTO]

Is this your prediction or what you'd like to see. Assume it's the former.

Prediction. Like 95% in here we all know which two have used up their gold passes.

 

[jackster83]

The difference between our defensive structure and what the Eagles had last year is that their smaller defenders (Yeo, Wellingham, Hurn and Sheppard) are still tallish and can give a contest overhead or take a chop out mark. With Smith, Laird, Brown and VB/Cheney, we don't have that aerial ability therefore we must play three KPD's.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

The difference between our defensive structure and what the Eagles had last year is that their smaller defenders (Yeo, Wellingham, Hurn and Sheppard) are still tallish and can give a contest overhead or take a chop out mark. With Smith, Laird, Brown and VB/Cheney, we don't have that aerial ability therefore we must play three KPD's.

Take hurn out of that list and I agree. He is a no contest in the air against a taller opponent. Perhaps gov can switch back.

 

[Stiffy_18]

I would be surprised if Mackay gets dropped. He was far from our worst on Saturday. I would have liked him to get more of the ball but he was OK. Certainly better than Seedsman who had a couple of cameos in the game and was nowhere to be seen for the rest of the game.

I guess someone needs to cop it and it can't be the new guy.

 

[1970crow]

I would be surprised if Mackay gets dropped. He was far from our worst on Saturday. I would have liked him to get more of the ball but he was OK. Certainly better than Seedsman who had a couple of cameos in the game and was nowhere to be seen for the rest of the game.

I guess someone needs to cop it and it can't be the new guy.

As soon as the new guy proves beyond doubt that his ceiling as as low as Saturday's performance, then he'll be copping it too.

 

[NikkiNoo]

I would be surprised if Mackay gets dropped. He was far from our worst on Saturday. I would have liked him to get more of the ball but he was OK. Certainly better than Seedsman who had a couple of cameos in the game and was nowhere to be seen for the rest of the game.

I guess someone needs to cop it and it can't be the new guy.

Interesting stat released by the club

Rory Sloane and David Mackay led the way for Adelaide with 19 pressure acts apiece, while hard-working debutant Mitch McGovern had 15 in 74 per cent game time.

 

[Scorpus]

Analysis of defensive setups last year

Wins in 2015 per Tall Defence Setup:
Three Talls:
Talia - Hartigan - Lever: 4 Wins (West Coast, Essendon, Richmond, Port Adelaide*) 3 Losses (West Coast, Sydney, Geelong)
Hartigan - Lever - Shaw: 1 Win (Gold Coast)
Talia - Hartigan - Shaw: 1 Win (Brisbane)

Two Talls:
Talia - Hartigan - Cheney: 3 Wins (North, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs), 1 Loss (Hawthorn)
Talia - Hartigan - Kelly: 1 Win (Melbourne) 1 Loss (Western Bulldogs)
Talia - Lever - Cheney - Kelly: 2 Wins (Gold Coast, St Kilda), 2 Losses (GWS, Fremantle)
Talia - Hartigan - Cheney - Kelly: 2 Wins (Carlton, Brisbane) 1 Loss (Hawthorn)

One Tall:
Talia - Kelly - Cheney: 1 Loss (Port Adelaide)

Based on this information we had success of 66% (3 talls), 62% (2 talls) and 0% (1 tall)

Against Top 8 sides this changes to 50% (3 talls) and 33% (2 talls)

Our most effective setup was Talia - Hartigan - Cheney, followed by Talia - Hartigan - Lever. We actually never played with Talia - Hartigan - Lever - Cheney at any stage

*Talia subbed out early

 

[Tex200]

Analysis of defensive setups last year

Wins in 2015 per Tall Defence Setup:
Three Talls:
Talia - Hartigan - Lever: 4 Wins (West Coast, Essendon, Richmond, Port Adelaide*) 3 Losses (West Coast, Sydney, Geelong)
Hartigan - Lever - Shaw: 1 Win (Gold Coast)
Talia - Hartigan - Shaw: 1 Win (Brisbane)

Two Talls:
Talia - Hartigan - Cheney: 3 Wins (North, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs), 1 Loss (Hawthorn)
Talia - Hartigan - Kelly: 1 Win (Melbourne) 1 Loss (Western Bulldogs)
Talia - Lever - Cheney - Kelly: 2 Wins (Gold Coast, St Kilda), 2 Losses (GWS, Fremantle)
Talia - Hartigan - Cheney - Kelly: 2 Wins (Carlton, Brisbane) 1 Loss (Hawthorn)

One Tall:
Talia - Kelly - Cheney: 1 Loss (Port Adelaide)

Based on this information we had success of 66% (3 talls), 62% (2 talls) and 0% (1 tall)

Against Top 8 sides this changes to 50% (3 talls) and 33% (2 talls)

Our most effective setup was Talia - Hartigan - Cheney, followed by Talia - Hartigan - Lever. We actually never played with Talia - Hartigan - Lever - Cheney at any stage

*Talia subbed out early

There are a stack of variables that affect a result - extrapolation of wins based purely on defensive set up is a huge stretch

 

[Scorpus]

There are a stack of variables that affect a result - extrapolation of wins based purely on defensive set up is a huge stretch

On top of that there's no clear pattern anyway. We really weren't any better or worse with 3 or 2 talls

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

There are a stack of variables that affect a result - extrapolation of wins based purely on defensive set up is a huge stretch

I doubt that was the assertion.

 

[Stiffy_18]

Interesting stat released by the club

Rory Sloane and David Mackay led the way for Adelaide with 19 pressure acts apiece, while hard-working debutant Mitch McGovern had 15 in 74 per cent game time.

Don't mention that Nikki! It just ruins everyone's theory behind why Mackay should be dropped!

I was at the game and at no stage did I think that Mackay was having a shocker. Would I have liked to see more? Sure but that also applies to a long list of senior players who under performed by their standards against North Melbourne. I thought Dmac did some good things against North. Even started in a center square a couple of times and got a couple of clearances but let's not stop the facts get in a way of a great whinge-fest and the sky is falling brigade.

 

[DJ75]

It might be simple and correct, but it won't happen, will it?

Highly unlikely because... you know... leadership....intangibles...non-statistical roles...long term contracts... etc...

 

[ad victoriam]

Cheney might be a fringe workhorse, he's still 5x the player that Shaw is and ever will be.

Comparison stats between Shaw and Cheney, Highlight not that much difference, One has play 54 games the other 24 games, Where Cheney will only be a 13 to 18 disposal player Shaw has the potential to jump that to 25, he is also 193, and faster than Cheney at this time Cheney may have the better tank hard to tell.
But watching Shaw before during and After his injury, and watching Cheney, Shaw is the better footballer, By some distance. Cheney a workhorse you know what you going to get, But a fit Shaw give you more and a Fit Shaw is a better kick, and soon to be highlighted a penetrating kick. Oh and he can take a mark against a 197 forward. and spoil a 200 plus forward
I would take a Fit Shaw over Cheney and Hartigan, KEY WORD is a FIT Shaw. I would also take Hartigan over Cheney.

 

[hey shorty]

If Shaw has another good couple of games in the Reserves he'll be in. Coaching staff have huge faith in him, lets see if that faith is misguided.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

Don't mention that Nikki! It just ruins everyone's theory behind why Mackay should be dropped!

I was at the game and at no stage did I think that Mackay was having a shocker. Would I have liked to see more? Sure but that also applies to a long list of senior players who under performed by their standards against North Melbourne. I thought Dmac did some good things against North. Even started in a center square a couple of times and got a couple of clearances but let's not stop the facts get in a way of a great whinge-fest and the sky is falling brigade.

Agreed, he played an ok game by his standards.

But who would you rather in the team, Mackay or Knight? Mackay or Cameron?

 

[TheLeftFist8]

Comparison stats between Shaw and Cheney, Highlight not that much difference, One has play 54 games the other 24 games, Where Cheney will only be a 13 to 18 disposal player Shaw has the potential to jump that to 25, he is also 193, and faster than Cheney at this time Cheney may have the better tank hard to tell.
But watching Shaw before during and After his injury, and watching Cheney, Shaw is the better footballer, By some distance. Cheney a workhorse you know what you going to get, But a fit Shaw give you more and a Fit Shaw is a better kick, and soon to be highlighted a penetrating kick. Oh and he can take a mark against a 197 forward. and spoil a 200 plus forward
I would take a Fit Shaw over Cheney and Hartigan, KEY WORD is a FIT Shaw. I would also take Hartigan over Cheney.

I agree with all this, and I'm not anti-Cheney either!

 

[huludicidal]

Mackay will not be dropped. The pressure acts stat released by the club (see posts above) confirms this.

VB, McGovern, Milera are the 3 in the gun. Cheney is safe.

Knight will absolutely come in for one of the 3 above. Lock it in.

Hartigan / Cameron may come in for another.

Lyons / CEY are both an outside chance if we feel we need an extra mid, or if there's a secret injury.

Nobody else is even remotely in the frame. Not Beech, not Henderson, not Menzel. Nobody.

Gut feel is 1-2 changes, with the only in or out I'm certain about being Knight in.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

What odds on Crows selectors dropping McGovern and Milera for the showdown?

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Interesting stat released by the club

Rory Sloane and David Mackay led the way for Adelaide with 19 pressure acts apiece, while hard-working debutant Mitch McGovern had 15 in 74 per cent game time.

Stop that Nikki ......you'll defeat the whole purpose of why this forum flourish's

Any stat that suggests Mackay is not talentless and useless .....will not be accepted, but hotly rebutted

Would be very surprised if McGovern was dropped ...thought his first game was full of merit ....lovely hands, touch of aggression, and provides huge flexibility for "the Don"

 

[Stiffy_18]

Agreed, he played an ok game by his standards.

But who would you rather in the team, Mackay or Knight? Mackay or Cameron?

It's not as simple as that. There are different roles in the team that players fill. The role that Mackay fills is not going to be filled by Cameron or Knight. There is no question that those two are in our best 22 but they both play different roles to Mackay. If you are looking for role similarity, Mackay and Seedsman play similar roles. Outside running mids/wingers who are there to provide a bit of pace, dash and run and carry. Both didn't get enough of it against Kangaroos but both did well with the possessions they did get, both kicked a goal.

 

[VSTone]

Interesting stat released by the club

Rory Sloane and David Mackay led the way for Adelaide with 19 pressure acts apiece, while hard-working debutant Mitch McGovern had 15 in 74 per cent game time.

what is the definition of a pressure act?