Preview R2: Changes v Port

[cammo6556]

In: Cameron, Hartigan,Knight, Lyon
Out: Mackay,VB,Chaney, Aitkens

Cameron provides speed, pure and simple. That back six of Port can get flustered if put under pressure.
Pittard creates run if given the freedom so keep him honest. Both Milera and Cameron can patrol the forward line laying tackles.
Betts played too high last week, we need his poaching ability around goal. Put their defence under pressure and give them something to chase; they'll tire. Betts looks more dangerous with Charlie there,they compliment one another.
We got very few opportunist goals last week Charlie can chip in a few.

Knight was everywhere against West last week, he runs hard and is a good user of the ball.
Polec is another who needs to be checked but Knights has the ability to run off him.
He just gets more involved in the game than Mackay whom isn't as bad as everyone rates(there's just better options in front of him).
I like Knights work rate and he has the pace to match our opponents strength.

Hartigan because of his bigger body against a player like Dixon.
Lever proved last week he's courageous but he lacks the bulk to shift these mature bodied players.Lever needs a run up and jump to spoil his opponent, his just a skinny second year player who needs to gain mass which will happen in time.
Some will say he's a key position defender right now but I'm willing to argue the opposite. Lever just doesn't dominate or smother an opponent.His checking at times is suspect ,he's far more comfortable affecting a spoil and running off, or dodging and creating an outlet.
Hartigan may have the occasional brain fade but he's a disciplined defender who is getting better at recognising his limitation. Hartigan reads the ball well and is strong in the air, he's hard to move and his presence frees up Lever to play his more natural game.

Lyons because around contests he finds the ball and because he does have the ability to take an overhead mark and kick goals from the midfield.
We really need our mid fielders to begin kicking goals between them on a consistent basis. That aspect of the game stops their opponents cheating and running off into space and takes pressure off Tex and Jenkins.
Aitkens has a lovely left foot, can weave and dodge but has a hesitation in his game at times that worries me. He's one of those players that almost puts on the tackle,just gets beaten to the 50/50 ball. Again I'll upset a few posters but he needs a fiercer approach to his game.

I would dearly love to play a second ruck but that means upgrading O'Brien and how many changes can you do in a week. Jacobs needs support under this new interchange regime and we need to throw multiple men at Lobbe, Westhoff,Trengove. Very keen to see us adopt a two ruck combination in the coming months.
There is pressure building from the SANFL team, it's just a matter of elevating the right combination. I feel we got it wrong last week.

What about Dear in, and having McGovern float back from time to time to help with Dixon, Schulz and Westhoff? Then Dear can chip in against their second rucks.

 

[1970crow]

I wouldn't. Agree that he will surpass them in the not too distant future, but he's not there yet.

Milera currently struggles to get involved with the game enough. He's one of the few players who had less disposals than VB, and this has been consistent over his last 3 games.

Has definite star potential, but he still has a lot of development before he gets there.

He was about 5 touches short of Mackay on debut. That's not a lot. He may not be there yet, but it may not take much more than a couple of weeks either.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

What about Dear in, and having McGovern float back from time to time to help with Dixon, Schulz and Westhoff? Then Dear can chip in against their second rucks.

I'm a big fan of both Dear and ROB for the future but we would be too tall.

Already have Jenkins, Walker, Lynch, McGovern.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

He was about 5 touches short of Mackay on debut. That's not a lot. He may not be there yet, but it may not take much more than a couple of weeks either.

It is absolutely nonsensical to select Mackay above Milera…surely Pyke won't do it?

 

[MattyB_76]

This weekends game will be my nephews first match as a member. My Dad and I took him to a game last year plus the semi in Melbourne. We bought him a membership for Christmas. His parents are Port supporters but dont go to matches so he has missed out until now. He is very excited.

You sir, are a legend.

 

[cammo6556]

I'm a big fan of both Dear and ROB for the future but we would be too tall.

Already have Jenkins, Walker, Lynch, McGovern.

fair point... That's the conundrum against the taller forward lines I guess...

 

[rezagun]

It is absolutely nonsensical to select Mackay above Milera…surely Pyke won't do it?

Its chalk and cheese.

 

[Vader]

He's playing in a totally different position!

Do you remember how well VB performed last year on the high HF rotation?!

There is zero chance Milera would play worse than VB as the 7th defender.

Not commenting on VB, but I think your expectations of Milera are a bit higher than what he is currently capable of delivering.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

Not commenting on VB, but I think your expectations of Milera are a bit higher than what he is currently capable of delivering.

I expect he would get 10+ possessions running off the half back line, make good decisions, have minimal clangers and actually keep up with his opponent defensively.

 

[Vader]

He was about 5 touches short of Mackay on debut. That's not a lot. He may not be there yet, but it may not take much more than a couple of weeks either.

Big difference when you're talking about almost doubling his total output.

I have no doubt that he will get there. I'm not quite as bullish with the time lines as you, but I think it will be sooner rather than later. It's just not now.

 

[Vader]

It is absolutely nonsensical to select Mackay above Milera…surely Pyke won't do it?

It's not nonsensical at all. Milera is very, very promising, but he does have aspects of his game that need improvement. They may well decide that this development is better happening in the SANFL.

 

[1970crow]

Big difference when you're talking about almost doubling his total output.

I have no doubt that he will get there. I'm not quite as bullish with the time lines as you, but I think it will be sooner rather than later. It's just not now.

4 is double 2 and 2 difference is not a lot. Because Mackays numbers are consistently low, it won't take much improvement for Milera to cover him for possessions, which is your main knock at the moment. If it was Thommo's 30 touches against Mrouch's 15, then I'd agree. But we're talking about a low benchmark here, really only 1 touch per quarter and he's there. Couple of weeks if he's afforded them and up to it.

 

[Wright Away]

Lynch will be a good in this week, he was sorely missed against North.

Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk

 

[TheLeftFist8]

It's not nonsensical at all. Milera is very, very promising, but he does have aspects of his game that need improvement. They may well decide that this development is better happening in the SANFL.

Apart from increasing his possession count (which is partly positional), which aspects need improving?

It's not as if he's competing against complete footballers for a spot!

 

[Tex200]

Lynch will be a good in this week, he was sorely missed against North.

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Interesting Scott made the call to play a hard tag in him. Hurt us. The secret of the Chief is out!

 

[BunjiMac]

My team:

Brown, Talia, Hartigan/shaw
Smith, lever, Cheney
Sloane, M.Crouch, seedsman
Atkins, Tex, lynch
Betts, jj, McGovern

Jacobs, B.Crouch, Thompson


Interchange:

Milera, Douglas, Laird, knight


The week after I want to see Cameron, menzel, and CEY putting some serious pressure on this group.

 

[Wright Away]

Interesting Scott made the call to play a hard tag in him. Hurt us. The secret of the Chief is out!

Well he needs to overcome if he wants the big dollars and the attention from the player managers.

He could try dobbing in the tagger to the umps!

 

[Golumless]

Mackay had 4 tackles for the game. Only 3 Adelaide players had more (Brad Crouch, Betts, Sloane). So, he's done very well according to 2 of the 3 stats...

My problem with Mackay is that stuff like tackles are all well and good, but for someone in his role, it shouldn't be a defining factor. (No one can fault his work rate).

Offensively, he provides very little is my problem, as he is in a role that needs to have a big offensive output.

The last 5 pages of this thread have been hilarious to read. Adelaide publishes a stat that favours Mackay, indicating that he played a good game (which he did). The haters respond with "that stat is meaningless rubbish" (which it patently is not). Mackay supporters say "6 coaches have selected him now". The haters respond with the borderline demented response of "5 of those coaches were proven failures, so their opinion is irrelevant". The fact is that those 5 coaches have all forgotten more about football than the posters in question will ever know, and by attacking them the posters just make themselves look like complete idiots.

Really. It was a good game by Mackays standard. For most, it's what i'd expect at least.

The stat that was quoted wasn't meaningless rubbish, but what it shows is Mackays work rate is really the main thing about him. It's why he and VB survive week in week out. Sure they may not be the most talented players, sure there are many times they do more damage then good, but at least they work hard.

The other problem is that assuming because 5 people did something, it instantly means it's right. I don't need to know much about football to see Mackay is a below average footballer, and doesn't belong in a mid table AFL side. When we laud a 13 possession game from him, due to pressure acts; this again shows he has no business being in the AFL as an outside midfielder, as the main job he has is provide offensive output (and lets face it, there is no way you could claim Mackay has an inside role). Celebrating the pressure acts just say, "jeeze he wasn't great, but boy, he works hard". In essence rewarding mediocrity.

Out of the 5 coaches though. It is a weak argument as it's circumstantial and for most we really don't know what would happen in the long run. Craig, and in essence Bickley needed to play him as he was the future at that stage, Sanderson had no other options partly due to drafting strategy and partly due to loss of draft picks. Going by Campos selections straight after Walshs death, it's a fair thing to assume Mackay had begun to fall out of favor, and he was last man selected for Campo.

The simple fact is that Mackay had a good game on the weekend. Better than a whole host of more favoured players, including Sloane, Brad Crouch, Seedsman, Betts and Milera (to name just a few). Haters, it's time to get over it...

Good is too strong, as it wasn't a good game. It was average. Mediocre. He was solid, but limited offensively (Goal and nothing else of note), and didn't make any mistakes defensively, whilst worked hard. That should be the absolute bare minimum expected for any player. Not lauded.

By the metric of how you are rating him having a good game, Sloane, Betts absolutely killed it. (I feel they both had better games then what we're giving credit for, but that's the price of expectation), because the amount of pressure they put on.

Mackay still gets dropped for me, purely because we have a better footballer in Knight waiting in the wings, and ready.

And Seedsman who had even fewer possessions also stay's .......so are we going to select sides purely on stats ? ......don't need match committee in that case

At least those disposals were damaging. Plus he gets some leeway due to being a new player with weapons that if he clicks, will be an absolute gun winger. In 4-5 weeks it won't though.

Mackay had a barely passable game and needs to lift (like most of the team) or he'll be on the chopping block.

I suspect most players will lift. I'm not sure Mackay is capable of it

Mackay should be on the chopping block regardless because as it stands, we have a better player sitting in the SANFL in Knight.

Most of the BF luvvies were ordinary, it's an inconvenient truth. How the hell we got so close is a mystery

I'm not going to argue that, but it bodes well.

That said, holy shit, how quick were we? It misfired in the second half, and we probably need to be fitter, but once it clicks we are going to absolutely belt teams.

 

[Golumless]

Question folks.

Can Milera, Cameron, Menzel and Betts all
play in the same side?

Absolutely. All have X-factor. All are match-winners and you can never have enough of those.

 

[BunjiMac]

Absolutely. All have X-factor. All are match-winners and you can never have enough of those.

I actually can't wait for the day that this happens. Betts is the only permanent forward out of the four with the rest capable of playing multiple positions.

Cameron in the centre square would be exciting.

 

[azza77]

Wonderful post Golumless, hit the nail on the head!

*insert some sort of applause gif here*

 

[Jeffcrowe]

One thing that is clear is that pressure acts rank a distant third behind actually having the ball and tackles. A pressure act is what you get when you either can't get to a player quick enough or can't hold the player once there. A pressure act doesn't have to affect the opponents disposal to be recorded. But it is evidence that a player is working to contests and remaining in them. But I'm sure the coaches would prefer them to have the ball or execute an actual tackle.

not the most important thing but definitely important

main correlation is between pressure acts and contested possessions. This I think has been the hallmark to Sydney's consistent success over the last 5 years as they have been in the top few in both consistently

Winning teams generally have higher pressure (180 on average) than losing teams (176 on average), though increased pressure can often just be a way for an outclassed team to stay within touch. 77 per cent of teams who won both pressure and contested possessions in a match in 2015 have won (65 of 84), compared to just 57 per cent of teams who won the contested possession but were out-pressured (47 of 83). The below graph shows the influence of pressure on the final margin, adjusted for contested possessions.

back when introduced

''Trialled during 2010 and handed to clubs during the off-season, the pressure act stat shows a direct correlation between winning and losing. In an era where defensive pressure wins games, the new stat is certain to become a key indicator for coaches trying to find the common winning denominator.
The stat has exposed the myth "win the tackles, win the game". Based on 2010, this is wrong. If you won the tackles in a quarter last year, you won the quarter on the scoreboard just 49.7 per cent of the time, making it only a 50-50 bet.
Win the pressure factor - based on physical and implied pressure - and a team wins 62.1 per cent of its quarters. Win the pressure factor and contested possession stats and this rose to a high 78.5 per cent winning ratio.''

who would you predict is our best 'pressure act' player over last 5 seasons? don't need to think too hard given our lack of 2 way runners in this period

 

[NTRabbit]

Absolutely. All have X-factor. All are match-winners and you can never have enough of those.

They can't all play in the same forward line though, two of them have to be in the midfield at any given time.

 

[scoota10]

My Side
Menzel Walker Cameron
Lynch Jenkins Betts
Atkins Thompson Sloane
Seedsman Lever Smith
Laird Tallia Cheney

Jacobs,Douglas M Crouch

Inter Henderson, Brown, B Crouch, MCgovern

in Henderson,Cameron,Menzel
out VB Mackay Milera

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

My Side
Menzel Walker Cameron
Lynch Jenkins Betts
Atkins Thompson Sloane
Seedsman Lever Smith
Laird Tallia Cheney

Jacobs,Douglas M Crouch

Inter Henderson, Brown, B Crouch, MCgovern

in Henderson,Cameron,Menzel
out VB Mackay Milera

Knight a certainty to come in before the others