Preview R2: Changes v Port

[Jeffcrowe]

Question folks.

Can Milera, Cameron, Menzel and Betts all
play in the same side?

Yep

 

[1970crow]

not the most important thing but definitely important

main correlation is between pressure acts and contested possessions. This I think has been the hallmark to Sydney's consistent success over the last 5 years as they have been in the top few in both consistently

Winning teams generally have higher pressure (180 on average) than losing teams (176 on average), though increased pressure can often just be a way for an outclassed team to stay within touch. 77 per cent of teams who won both pressure and contested possessions in a match in 2015 have won (65 of 84), compared to just 57 per cent of teams who won the contested possession but were out-pressured (47 of 83). The below graph shows the influence of pressure on the final margin, adjusted for contested possessions.

back when introduced

''Trialled during 2010 and handed to clubs during the off-season, the pressure act stat shows a direct correlation between winning and losing. In an era where defensive pressure wins games, the new stat is certain to become a key indicator for coaches trying to find the common winning denominator.
The stat has exposed the myth "win the tackles, win the game". Based on 2010, this is wrong. If you won the tackles in a quarter last year, you won the quarter on the scoreboard just 49.7 per cent of the time, making it only a 50-50 bet.
Win the pressure factor - based on physical and implied pressure - and a team wins 62.1 per cent of its quarters. Win the pressure factor and contested possession stats and this rose to a high 78.5 per cent winning ratio.''

who would you predict is our best 'pressure act' player over last 5 seasons? don't need to think too hard given our lack of 2 way runners in this period

Have you got the pressure act premiership table for the last 2-3 years?

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Have you got the pressure act premiership table for the last 2-3 years?

I saw last years but couldn't get the others

St kilda hawthorn and Sydney were the top 3 in order

We were crap and Carlton was bottom with pressure differential

Outliers - west coast worse than us , Essendon 7th and st kilda obviously

Sloane our best pressure act player in last 5 years by country mile hence he is ranked 6th best player in league by champion data ( they use pressure stats to help with player rankings )

Want to dig up some info on our pressure differential in the 3 zones for 2015 ( forward mid and back ) as I suggest our forward line is pretty good with betts and Cameron elite in applying pressure and I suspect our midfield is v poor . Have the book at home so will check it out

 

[Barneythecrab]

Shaw or Hartigan for VB can't decide

Would love to fit CEY in somehow but I think Thomo has proven himself too many times in a showdown to drop. I would prob drop otherwise.

And how do we get Riley Knight back in? Maybe drop Milera?

Sounds like McGovern won't be dropped, I want him in anyway.

Very hard this week.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I expect he would get 10+ possessions running off the half back line, make good decisions, have minimal clangers and actually keep up with his opponent defensively.

Milera's 10 possessions are worth at least 20 of VBs .... Score involvements per possession would be at least 2x ratio of VBs at a guess and then factor in the upside

That mark he took in centre square - now imagine him intercept marking across half back . I have no doubt he would be a success there . You wouldn't play him on gray or Wingard but then again you wouldn't play VB on those guys either

Toumpas likely plays this week and you would back Milera in on Toumpas every day of the week to have more impact

 

[Golumless]

They can't all play in the same forward line though, two of them have to be in the midfield at any given time.

Yeah, i feel that all 3 of Cameron/Milera/Menzel will develop that bow sooner rather than later.

 

[1970crow]

I saw last years but couldn't get the others

St kilda hawthorn and Sydney were the top 3 in order

We were crap and Carlton was bottom with pressure differential

Outliers - west coast worse than us , Essendon 7th and st kilda obviously

Sloane our best pressure act player in last 5 years by country mile hence he is ranked 6th best player in league by champion data ( they use pressure stats to help with player rankings )

Want to dig up some info on our pressure differential in the 3 zones for 2015 ( forward mid and back ) as I suggest our forward line is pretty good with betts and Cameron elite in applying pressure and I suspect our midfield is v poor . Have the book at home so will check it out

Significant outliers suggest that there's a quality to it just as there is with disposals and other events. Or as you suggest, perhaps the area of the ground might fine tune it a bit. But, whilst on average pressure act differential is linked to success, in isolation it doesn't necessarily imply the same. I think that this was the point being made regarding this stat. Saints weren't close to being a consistently good team last year, so Mackay Accumulating plenty as an individual doesn't automatically mean he's had a successful performance just as Saints were mostly no chop. You can have a stinker and be just off it all day and rack these up, intent is there but performance not quite.

This is where Wayne's-World would tell us that our eyes need to be on the game, not the stat sheet. Except in this circumstance it's supporting one of his favoured, little plodders, so the stat sheet will be the only important piece of evidence.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Significant outliers suggest that there's a quality to it just as there is with disposals and other events. Or as you suggest, perhaps the area of the ground might fine tune it a bit. But, whilst on average pressure act differential is linked to success, in isolation it doesn't necessarily imply the same. I think that this was the point being made regarding this stat. Saints weren't close to being a consistently good team last year, so Mackay Accumulating plenty as an individual doesn't automatically mean he's had a successful performance just as Saints were mostly no chop. You can have a stinker and be just off it all day and rack these up, intent is there but performance not quite.

This is where Wayne's-World would tell us that our eyes need to be on the game, not the stat sheet. Except in this circumstance it's supporting one of his favoured, little plodders, so the stat sheet will be the only important piece of evidence.

My view is stats by itself have limited story telling ability ......where on the ground ...which qtrs ...actual influence of stats in a chain of play .....so many factors that have to be overlayed to the stats themselves

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Significant outliers suggest that there's a quality to it just as there is with disposals and other events. Or as you suggest, perhaps the area of the ground might fine tune it a bit. But, whilst on average pressure act differential is linked to success, in isolation it doesn't necessarily imply the same. I think that this was the point being made regarding this stat. Saints weren't close to being a consistently good team last year, so Mackay Accumulating plenty as an individual doesn't automatically mean he's had a successful performance just as Saints were mostly no chop. You can have a stinker and be just off it all day and rack these up, intent is there but performance not quite.

This is where Wayne's-World would tell us that our eyes need to be on the game, not the stat sheet. Except in this circumstance it's supporting one of his favoured, little plodders, so the stat sheet will be the only important piece of evidence.

Depends which way you look at things - as usual with these things

Without the pressure differential success perhaps the saints stay at the bottom of the ladder rather than climb up compared to prev year

West coast interests me particularly since pyke comes from there . I will try research them more thoroughly in regard to this as they went v well without ranking high in this . I would have expected them to have gone very well in this stat last year given their lack of key defenders and the need to pressure the ball carrier as such to protect their undermanned defence

Pies 2010 premiership was built on pressure in the forward half

Sydney has consistently been the best with hawthorn not far behind

Nobles ' non statistical ' quote makes more sense now given wright was a well performed pressure player . An example of using the stat in the wrong way . You need to also have other traits to survive at this level like contested ball, ball use , kicking and obviously creating scoring opportunity including kicking goals yourself where wright clearly failed last year

I'm very confident that if the we pushed up into top 4 of pressure differential and improved our tackling that we would push top 4 and even have a shot at a flag . Obviously this would only be possible because we have the offensive weapons and contested ball capability ie no point being st kilda of last year

As for Mackay - it doesn't save his bacon at all and I never suggested it does but his stats in that area on sat should not be discounted completely . The need to have a balanced view is paramount

The thing against Mackay is that knight and Cameron possess the same ability to apply pressure but also contest better and make things happen more . They also rise to the Occassion when the team needs them . Prime example is knight in last years SF and also in the second showdown . There is no way Mackay takes a difficult mark one on one 15 m out in a showdown like knight did and converts or calmly slots 2 set shots from difficult angles in a SF when the team needs a goal like knight did in his FIRST final

In summary - the stat is not a be all and end all but an important piece of the puzzle in being successful

 

[WaynesWorld19]

As for Mackay - it doesn't save his bacon at all and I never suggested it does but his stats in that area on sat should not be discounted completely . The need to have a balanced view is paramount

The thing against Mackay is that knight and Cameron possess the same ability to apply pressure but also contest better and make things happen more . They also rise to the Occassion when the team needs them . Prime example is knight in last years SF and also in the second showdown . There is no way Mackay takes a difficult mark one on one 15 m out in a showdown like knight did and converts or calmly slots 2 set shots from difficult angles in a SF when the team needs a goal like knight did in his FIRST final

This .....

 

[DD#23]

I'll take someone capable of scoreboard pressure acts any day

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I'll take someone capable of scoreboard pressure acts any day

So would I

There are times however when you need to win the ball back off the opposition and we have been shite at for too long

 

[skins62]

No way I would be dropping Milera. Kid is absolute silk and class. He will get better with every game. Being more on ball means he gets to see the pill a lot more than a forward (McGovern).

He didn't see more of it in the NAB cup and he didn't see more of it game one. So how can you be so sure he will see more of it than McGovern. I agree Milera looks all class, but he doesn't see much of the pill at all, or at least not so far in 3 x Nab and one official game.

 

[1970crow]

He didn't see more of it in the NAB cup and he didn't see more of it game one. So how can you be so sure he will see more of it than McGovern. I agree Milera looks all class, but he doesn't see much of the pill at all, or at least not so far in 3 x Nab and one official game.

So he was selected off his NAB form and didn't drop off much going into season proper. Looks like he's tracking very well.

 

[DD#23]

So he was selected off his NAB form and didn't drop off much going into season proper. Looks like he's tracking very well.

its like no one remembers how little of the ball Charlie saw early in the season last year, and how much good it did him for the rest of the season.

if Milera gets dropped before the likes of Mackay or VB we are cooked, COOKED! as a footy club.

 

[Mego Red]

its like no one remembers how little of the ball Charlie saw early in the season last year, and how much good it did him for the rest of the season.

if Milera gets dropped before the likes of Mackay or VB we are cooked, COOKED! as a footy club.

Jeez, cooked is a bit much.

VB should go first, then probably the Gov for structure. Then you can flip a coin on Mackay and Milera - they're the next two.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

It's not flipping a coin though. It's two diametrically opposed philosophies that would reveal how our club is going to operate under Pyke.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Just put myself through the pain of watching the second half again.

Mackay provided a contest and had some valuable touches. Apart from the one Occassion where atley pushed him aside he was ok.

That third quarter was painful. Self inflicted doesn't even explain what we did there. Should have won the gam.

As for VB. He is completely cooked. There were 4 or 5 occasions where NM players ran away from him, at one stage it was ****ing firrito, the fat plodder! And then of course that last goal! Let alone he fact that he doesn't get the ball himself and when he does he panics. we cannot possibly ever play him again. Surely!

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Jeez, cooked is a bit much.

VB should go first, then probably the Gov for structure. Then you can flip a coin on Mackay and Milera - they're the next two.

Gov was quite good in the second half. Chased hard, created opportunities for others and himself, just couldn't convert. Should keep getting games if he can get a few more touches and convert a few of his shots. A goal,or two a game and that pressure will be valuable.

 

[Golumless]

As for VB. He is completely cooked. There were 4 or 5 occasions where NM players ran away from him, at one stage it was ******* firrito, the fat plodder! And then of course that last goal! Let alone he fact that he doesn't get the ball himself and when he does he panics. we cannot possibly ever play him again. Surely!

You'd think so, but this club has a habit of sticking with players that are absolutely cooked.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

You'd think so, but this club has a habit of sticking with players that are absolutely cooked.

He is as cooked as anyone I've ever seen pull on our guernsey. Beyond cooked. I'm a fat 40 year old and I reckon I could outrun him in a sprint.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

its like no one remembers how little of the ball Charlie saw early in the season last year, and how much good it did him for the rest of the season.

if Milera gets dropped before the likes of Mackay or VB we are cooked, COOKED! as a footy club.

I share the despair in this post. Taking VB into a game is effectively going in one short. If he stays whilst others go there is little hope for our chances of success.

 

[Ozzie]

No I am not. I was at the SANFL game on the weekend, looking forward to seeing Knight and Cameron really pressing their claim as I would prefer them in the team, but they were not quite up to the standard we require. You said you wanted Mackay out for either Knight or Cameron and I'm saying, on what I saw, Cameron is not ready and Knight maybe if you only looked at the half a game he did.

I would put Seedsman in the 6/10 mark as well on the weekend, so why is no one calling for his head? Sloane was bad. Why no one calling for him to be dropped? Crouch and Atkins both thought they were playing SANFL. No calling for them to be dropped. Why do those players get a leeway? Because the group think is that Mackay is bad and can't improve on that 6/10. He has played well above that before but hasn't reached those heights in a while, I agree, but there is the possibility there and I'm willing to wait a little longer than one game in the proper season to hang him out to dry. He isn't John Butcher.

We allow the others more leeway because we trust that they can get to the higher level again, except that Sloane has been poor all pre-season, well below his standard that I expect to see from him. Mackay has performed okay, and done some good things.

I found it interesting that he was equal first (with the poor Sloane) for pressure acts, which implies hardness at the ball carrier, which is something people say he doesn't do well. Those stats seem to say otherwise.

I got pummelled for daring to suggest similar thoughts yesterday.

 

[ClintEastwood]

Gray is a poor comparison. You should be comparing Menzel to Wingard.

Gray plays mostly mid with stints up fwd.

Gray plays wherever he wants / feels he needs to.

 

[absolutezero]

I got pummelled for daring to suggest similar thoughts yesterday.

I was at the game, Sloane was applying actual pressure constantly - more than anyone else on the ground for me. Couldn't believe how hard he was working. Sure he didn't stand out for a nice goal, or run down the wing, but he played well in that regard.

I'd much rather be tackled by Mackay any day of the week than Sloane, Mackay would most likely grab on for a second and end up on the ground like usual.