Racing RACING FUTURES

[plays tall 1]

2 Japanese horses at value for the Doncaster:
Mozu Ascot @$41 (Lads)
Group 1 winner over 1600m in Japan and win a G3 over 1400 last start.
My Style @$31 (Lads)
4th in a G1 over 1600m 2 starts ago. Has won at G3 level and placed at G2.
Both 6yos. Both nominated and, according to Twitter sources, the plan is to come. The markets are now “All-in” so you could do your money cold. Also relatively unproven on wet tracks.
But all things considered they look worth a bit of a go to me, especially Mozu Ascot, that price looks crazy.

Mozu Ascot win a G1 in Japan today so that makes it less likely he’ll come. Bigger money elsewhere in the world in WFA races.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Starting to thing early futures betting is a mugs game

 

[FallingLiefs]

Starting to thing early futures betting is a mugs game

Unfortunately when they go up 150%-200%+ It becomes near impossible to make money long term. Biggest scam the bookies have behind multi's. There are obviously exceptions but few and far between.

 

[iluvparis]

Starting to thing early futures betting is a mugs game

Unless you have inside info - in Australia I’d be limiting myself to raiders only and even then mostly as back to lay propositions.

Stuff like LG comes around about once a decade if that.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Unless you have inside info - in Australia I’d be limiting myself to raiders only and even then mostly as back to lay propositions.

Stuff like LG comes around about once a decade if that.

Danon is already way unders

 

[iluvparis]

Danon is already way unders

not in pre noms it wasn’t. This thing will legit start 6/4 on the day if it gets there (Or maybe 2/1 if the Tassie superstar is a late nom)

 

[Gavin Excell]

not in pre noms it wasn’t. This thing will legit start 6/4 on the day if it gets there (Or maybe 2/1 if the Tassie superstar is a late nom)

Is clearly better than ours but it comes unstuck if Sydney serves up its standard autumn wet weather

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Late nominations can impact your selections too and in some cases result in getting unders

 

[plays tall 1]

Japanese Twitter sources saying the owner of Mozu Ascot has confirmed he’s still coming down for the Doncaster.

 

[iluvparis]

Geez - he'll be carrying the grandstand you'd reckon - surely the Ryder would be a better play

 

[plays tall 1]

Geez - he'll be carrying the grandstand you'd reckon - surely the Ryder would be a better play

Yep, puzzling decision, as was the decision to run yesterday when their plan was to run in a handicap at the next start. Mr Yahagi doing it his way.

 

[iluvparis]

Yep, puzzling decision, as was the decision to run yesterday when their plan was to run in a handicap at the next start. Mr Yahagi doing it his way.

My other main concern is that he has had to revert to dirt to re-find his winning form and that the move is because there is less depth in the Japanese dirt runners. His turf form had really tapered off prior to the switch.

 

[HeathySure]

Geez - he'll be carrying the grandstand you'd reckon - surely the Ryder would be a better play

handicappers are way to scared to give them weight these days. he will be thrown in given how much we over rate our horses compared to theirs

 

[come on oliver]

Unless you have inside info - in Australia I’d be limiting myself to raiders only and even then mostly as back to lay propositions.

Stuff like LG comes around about once a decade if that.

take me back

 

[IKnowtheDog]

I think it’s harsh for bookies to have all-betting in pre nom markets.

 

[iluvparis]

I think it’s harsh for bookies to have all-betting in pre nom markets.

Most long range markets you get a refund if your horse doesn't nom though.

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Most long range markets you get a refund if your horse doesn't nom though.

It appears the bookies have recently reverted to this because some had all-in on pre markets

 

[plays tall 1]

Doncaster weights and OOE:

Racing New South Wales Home

racing.racingnsw.com.au

Sydney Cup weights and OOE:

Racing New South Wales Home

racing.racingnsw.com.au

 

[HeathySure]

As suspected Mozu Ascot thrown in. Avicat and Happy Clapper topweight with 58kgs.

 

[iluvparis]

As suspected Mozu Ascot thrown in. Avicat and Happy Clapper topweight with 58kgs.

To be fair - Happy Clapper has won one with with 57 so has to get 58 and Avi won the only WFA mile in the Spring by panels and is clearly Australia's best miler

As I said - Mozu's turf form has been suspect the last 12 months and he wouldn't rate that much different to Kluger who had 53 last year. If it was on dirt he would be topweight no doubt.

 

[HeathySure]

To be fair - Happy Clapper has won one with with 57 so has to get 58 and Avi won the only WFA mile in the Spring by panels and is clearly Australia's best miler

As I said - Mozu's turf form has been suspect the last 12 months and he wouldn't rate that much different to Kluger who had 53 last year. If it was on dirt he would be topweight no doubt.

i feel like you are trolling me when you say Avicat is our best miler
he is absolutely not even in the top 5

 

[iluvparis]

i feel like you are trolling me when you say Avicat is our best miler
he is absolutely not even in the top 5

No point having a debate then if you think that.

 

[54Dogs]

i feel like you are trolling me when you say Avicat is our best miler
he is absolutely not even in the top 5

Out of interest, who do you rate the top 5 milers

 

[iluvparis]

Out of interest, who do you rate the top 5 milers

don’t even...

 

[Howard Moon]

Reckon superstorm flying under the radar against the hot pots in the guineas? Wa form been stacking up generally and it ran Arcadia queen like figures before coming across. Wary