Preview Rd 8 Geelong v Melbourne Sat May 4th 730pm @ MCG

[Footy_Fan2007]

16 straight in 2022 I don't believe in due.

Fair point but I highly doubt we win 16 on the trot again.
It’s still only so early. 7 rounds in…
So much can happen between now and finals.

 

[iameviljez]

A few of the old hairline crack showed. Losing Danger..I cant see them dropping Parfitt..and to be honest ..do we have anyone in the VFL that screams... pick me over BP?

Hardie, Mannagh and Knevitt are all ready and waiting.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Weitering was hugely involved. Just because we won the war, doesn't mean we won every battle.

I am finding I disagree with most of what you say this year
It's as of we watch different games.

 

[iameviljez]

I am finding I disagree with most of what you say this year
It's as of we watch different games.

That's nice dear.

 

[Mr Meow]

Fair point but I highly doubt we win 16 on the trot again.
It’s still only so early. 7 rounds in…
So much can happen between now and finals.

But does "due a loss" actually make sense? No more than you are "due a red" on the roulette table after 5 blacks in a row. Which isn't something that's real.

If you provided more information like "I think the boys are looking tired" or "I have a feeling we will be complacent" or "Melbourne match up well on us" - fair enough. But being due a loss or performance just for the sake of it isn't really a concept that makes sense. We have done plenty wrong on this 7-0 journey, it is not like we have been impossibly flawless.

 

[iameviljez]

But does "due a loss" actually make sense? No more than you are "due a red" on the roulette table after 5 blacks in a row. Which isn't something that's real.

This is a statistics major arguing with a superstitious sports fan

 

[Finknottle]

... And Jezza kicked 5 and O.Henry kicked 3 as Weitering was occupied elsewhere. Ergo it worked.

Thx

Interesting logic, while other forwards pick up the slack, Hawkins is safe.

 

[Finknottle]

Weitering was hugely involved. Just because we won the war, doesn't mean we won every battle.

Exactly.

 

[BIGANT]

I am finding I disagree with most of what you say this year
It's as of we watch different games.

Who's too say there aren't conversations weekly these past few weeks since Tom has been quiet.
Worrying yeah? Panic stations ? nah. I hope CS is asked thus question at today's presser or generally after training Thursday.
Should he be put under the microscope ? He's got alot of credits and I am sure he'll make the right unselfish decision when it comes

 

[Finknottle]

I wouldn't be surprised if Scott makes a bunch of changes this week. Stanley vs Conway, Hawkins vs Neale, Hardie for Dangerfeld, Rohan for Atkins or Parfitt. But maybe none of the above. Looking forward to the team announcement.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Interesting logic, while other forwards pick up the slack, Hawkins is safe.

Not sure what is hard to understand about Saturday. Hawkins may not have had a great game but his mere presence demanded Weitering.

He does not play and Neale does instead and Weitering mans Cameron, and likely less than 5 are scored. Things have flow on effects.

It's why I can't see a Mooney/Hawkins repeat tbh. Hawkins just occupying space is still more useful than Neale

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

But does "due a loss" actually make sense? No more than you are "due a red" on the roulette table after 5 blacks in a row. Which isn't something that's real.

If you provided more information like "I think the boys are looking tired" or "I have a feeling we will be complacent" or "Melbourne match up well on us" - fair enough. But being due a loss or performance just for the sake of it isn't really a concept that makes sense. We have done plenty wrong on this 7-0 journey, it is not like we have been impossibly flawless.

alright I should of added to it.
I do think Melbourne match up well on us. I think that without Danger this week their midfield will get on top, which doesn’t necessarily mean a loss… as we saw last week. But it won’t help either.
I think we may be a little gassed after 2 big games, and over all just have a down week.

Agreed, we aren’t playing unstoppable football at the moment, and plenty to work on.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Overblown.

Plays against two brilliant fullbacks, one of which he played as a decoy to occupy Weitering (we targeted him 4 times for the game)... And he should have had a goal when Henry burnt him in Q1.
Other game was in a monsoon where the other key forwards in the game kicked 0, 0, 0.

Zero chance Neale knocks him off his perch in 2024.

I agree with nearly everything but I would say the while the probability of Neale pushing him out is not high, it's also not zero.

We are all about back half rebounding and Neale has the tools to make that work well in his favour. Still talking like 10% but Jim Carey says it's a chance

 

[Turbocat]

On The Couch- all over Geelong, and how Demons must sit on and squash Cameron and Miers. I hope Hawkins steps up this week, and other players can cover for Miers, if Melbourne has the personnel to do the squashing.

On the Couch..

Lyon says ... we bring back Zac Guthrie .. and then Carlton who probably prepared for him but Geelong put him down back ( derrr Cam Gathrie )

Buckley says... yes and then he kicked three goals... ( derrr. Zac 2e)


Not than unusaul I guess... yesterday I heard them on SEN go on an on about the Jack Henry mark on the line ..whether it was a mark or a point (derr Ollie )


Putting that aside ... yes the attention geelong are getting attention. Did we get that in 2022? I think that the down side of hitting form early is the attention you gather. Miers for example. Almost certainly going to get more attention with the focus they put upon him.

 

[iameviljez]

Not sure what is hard to understand about Saturday. Hawkins may not have had a great game but his mere presence demanded Weitering.

He does not play and Neale does instead and Weitering mans Cameron, and likely less than 5 are scored. Things have flow on effects.

I'm not sure I agree with that logic, though I do see where you're coming from.

If Weitering would take Cameron if Neale played, then surely he takes Cameron anyway even if Hawkins plays, because Cameron is currently a far more dangerous forward than Hawkins.

If I were an opposition coach and you offered me taking Cameron out of the game vs taking Hawkins out of the game, it's the guy who can kick five and have 20+ that I'm shutting down.

The big guys like Weitering don't play on Cameron at the moment, because he just wears them out. He's like a version of Buddy Franklin who can mark.

 

[moond0g]

This is a statistics major arguing with a superstitious sports fan

'Due a loss' is one of my pet hates. We're 'due' in the sense that regression to mean implies we'll lose one soon enough and people will take that as evidence they were right.

 

[iameviljez]

'Due a loss' is one of my pet hates. We're 'due' in the sense that regression to mean implies we'll lose one soon enough and people will take that as evidence they were right.

It reminds me of advice during a sales job trial many many moons ago - "every rejection is one rejection closer to the next success!".

Well, no, bullshit, because there's no cause and effect making success more likely due to a previous rejection. If anything, it's an indication that the probability of success is lower than you first thought.

I didn't get the job.

 

[Turbocat]

Hardie, Mannagh and Knevitt are all ready and waiting.

Any idea on their tackle stats. The game just gone probably not the best to judge by when you win by so much. I suspect that this side of his game is liked by CS.

Hardie looks fitter this year ..pressing for a game

 

[Johanpetro]

Why are people saying “give Stewart another weeks rest”? He would’ve played against Blues if it were up to him.

 

[Turbocat]

Hawkins is concerning for me. Goalless three weeks in a row? That would hardly have happened his whole career. I know we are still winning but if this keeps happening we may be faced with a similar scenario to Mooney/Hawkins with Hawkins/Neale at some stage.

I don't think it would be anyones interest to see his goaless streak continue. Of course he brings more than the goals ... and he could have had a couple against Carlton if he had not been out of luck and form... hope he manages to find a couple of easy chances against melb.

 

[Munich]

Why are people saying “give Stewart another weeks rest”? He would’ve played against Blues if it were up to him.

Yeah why does he need rest?

 

[iameviljez]

Yeah why does he need rest?

Concussion.

Two weeks off is pretty common now for concussion, regardless of symptoms.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

This, I agree with - and the same goes for the argument "He takes the opposition's biggest defender".

Well, yes, he does - and it's the same for any big bastard who we might pop in up front. It's the lowest hurdle to possibly vault, and it's vaulted simply by walking onto the field.

Can we just call a spade a spade? Hawkins has played six games this year, and had almost zero influence in four of them, being absolutely spanked by his direct opponent in three. This isn't some kind of four-dimensional chess decoy strategy; he is just getting beaten.

I think it would be interesting to consider how Neale would have fared against Weitering.

Hawkins isn't mobile and Weitering matched him for strength. Hawkins was basically there to keep him in a position and not run off until the point where it was clear Hawk wasn't being targeted

Neale wouldn't match him for strength but could Weitering really then go and play loose? I don't think he could with the way we rebound. If the ball is kicked into space Neale would leave Weitering in the dust for leg speed. A clear run at the ball and Neale can find space so you can't ignore him. There's also no other obvious match ups for Weitering.

In a slow build up game Weitering would smash Neale and it's not a conversation, but if Neale is running like a second Stanley and we're going for fast rebounds then I think Neale presents a bigger challenge for weitering than Hawkins simply because he can apply both defensive and offensive pressure.

Probably best though he didn't play, because if he went in and played decoy like Hawkins did people would be howling for him to be delisted.

 

[iameviljez]

In a slow build up game Weitering would smash Neale and it's not a conversation, but if Neale is running like a second Stanley and we're going for fast rebounds then I think Neale presents a bigger challenge for weitering than Hawkins simply because he can apply both defensive and offensive pressure.

Frankly, I think that if Neale had played, Weitering would have likewise given him a bath. That said, that isn't a strong argument for not playing a five-game key forward, because you kind of accept with those players that their first fifty to seventy games are really at the expense of the team.

PS - right now, I do NOT want a "second Stanley"

 

[cats_09]

Why are people saying “give Stewart another weeks rest”? He would’ve played against Blues if it were up to him.

Maybe because there isn't a clear time line or recovery for one after concussion

If you break an arm, there's a pretty standard recovery process, but it's not the same with concussionn

While he looked pretty ok sitting on the bench in the second half of the Brisbane clash, it doesn't mean every day has been the same since

We've also shown a tendency to be conservative with a players return from concussion, and as Stewart has been concussed on a couple of occasions, we may again take the cautious approach