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Brilliant preview by Mr Meow
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Geelong Cats vs North Melbourne: Round 12 - 13:45 AEST, Saturday June 9th 2018 at GMHBA Stadium
Preamble
At the start of the season not many would have predicted this to be a clash between two teams well and truly in top 4 calculations. Most people would have had Geelong thereabouts, but retirements and an early injury crisis threatened to derail the Cats season before it even got going. Meanwhile the Kangaroos are absolutely flying and have proven they can take their form on the road – desposing of Sydney and Fremantle on their home turf so far. Behind Collingwood vs Melbourne, this probably the most intriguing match of round 12 and the victor will have some serious momentum behind them.
Team Changes
Geelong is unchanged, while North Melbourne brings in Cameron Zurhaar for Jed Anderson (injured).
Team Lineups
Geelong Cats
B Aaron Black, Jake Kolodjashnij, Jed Bews
HB Tom Stewart, Mark Blicavs, Zach Tuohy
C Mitch Duncan, Joel Selwood, Jordan Cunico
HF Tim Kelly, Wylie Buzza, Sam Menegola
F Brandan Parfitt, Tom Hawkins, Jamaine Jones
FOL Rhys Stanley, Patrick Dangerfield, Gary Ablett
I/C Lachie Fogarty, Jack Henry, Lincoln McCarthy, Jordan Murdoch
EMG Ryan Abbott, Cory Gregson, James Parsons, Sam Simpson
North Melbourne
B Marley Williams, Robbie Tarrant, Majak Daw
HB Sam Wright, Scott D. Thompson, Jamie Macmillan
C Trent Dumont, Ben Jacobs, Luke McDonald
HF Kayne Turner, Mason Wood, Shaun Atley
F Jy Simpkin, Ben Brown, Jack Ziebell
FOL Todd Goldstein, Ben Cunnington, Shaun Higgins
I/C Paul Ahern, Billy Hartung, Tom Murphy, Cameron Zurhaar
EMG Ryan Clarke, Alex Morgan, Ben McKay, Will Walker
Opposition analysis
North Melbourne had appeared to be on the decline entering 2018 as they fully committed to a rebuild. After opening season 2016 with 9 consecutive wins, they proceeded to win just 9 of their next 36 games while turning over stalwarts such as Boomer Harvey and Drew Petrie. This season, however, has been a different story. A combination of increased pressure on the opposition, ability to win the contested footy (3rd in the AFL) and fluid ball movement has seen them trouble most teams they have played.
Defence
The defence has tightened up, with North Melbourne conceding the second fewest points per game. Thompson and Tarrant have been excellent, while players such as Macmillan and McDonald provide decent drive off half back and can also move up to the wings. All over the ground the Kangaroos have gained in pace as their list profile has become younger. This is an area that could definitely trouble Geelong, but the question is: can they replicate this at KP, where Geelong continually strangle opposition team’s ball movement?
Midfield
Cunnington and Higgins continue to build their cases for being genuine midfield stars – a 1-2 punch that has arguably eclipsed Selwood and Dangerfield this year. Meanwhile Ben Jacobs has been one of the AFL’s best taggers this season and Goldstein provides good service. Like Geelong this year, they haven’t been dominant in clearances but they certainly hurt you when they get the ball out from the clinches.
Attack
Ziebell’s move up forward has given the team better balance and a different kind of threat in attack. While Mason Wood remains consistent, on his day he is a potential match winner. It goes without saying that Ben Browd is an All Australian level full forward and one of the best focal points going around. It’s not as simple as saying stop Ben Brown and you stop North Melbourne, but it’s fairly high on the to do list. North Melbourne have the 5th most points scored per game and been prolific at times but have also been kept to 4 scores of < 75. It’s likely that Geelong will need to do this to win the game.
Geelong analysis
Defence
Outside of the calamitous last quarter 7 goal onslaught to Sydney, Geelong have averaged just 11.6 points against per quarter at GMHBA – or around 46 points per game. After three leaky games to start the season, they have tightened up to concede 54.3 points per game, comfortably the best in the AFL where they also now sit first overall for defence. In-game injuries undoubtedly contributed to the early heavy scores conceded, and an inexperienced group has required time to gel together. It’s started to look cohesive far earlier than expected however, with Blicavs a revelation since the move to defence, Stewart in All Australian form and Kolodashni relishing the increased responsibility at a key defensive post. Bews can be erratic with ball in hand but is a genuinely high performing lockdown player on small forwards. Touhy has been less prolific in a slightly more accountable role, but is still an important rebounding player. Even Black has come in and been surprisingly adept as a third tall down back.
I think we’ve been fearing for a long time what might happen once our defensive legends retire, but there were also murmurings that we badly needed to freshen up back there. Guys like Mackie and Lonergan were still performing ably in their last years, but we needed some more pace and energy back there. Also to some extent I think younger players were getting less responsibility and playing within themselves while they could hand over to the champions. An important factor has been retaining some of these defenders as assistant coaches. The young talent has the best guidance they could hope for and it’s paying off. It’s not all the defence itself though, because a fairly defensive set up elsewhere reduces the risk of opposition scoring freely from turnovers.
Midfield
After a slow start the midfield has started to click, or at least they’re not getting soundly beaten as they were earlier in the year. Talk of the holy trinity was always nonsense, and all three have either missed games (Ablett) or been carrying niggles (Selwood and Dangerfield). At 26 they could have been the ultimate trio but at this stage we have to settle on them as just very good, and requiring the right balance around them. The lack of a tough defensively minded player, aka Scott Selwood, has seen them exposed at times. Meanwhile Kelly started superbly but had a brief lull, and Duncan has taken some time to find top form. Without being dominant, the midfield have won the clearance count 4 of the past 5 weeks so the signs are there of things clicking. The ruck position throughout the season has been a significant weakness, especially early on when opposition ruckmen were amongst the best players on the field. Stanley has been okay against Kreuzer and Witts recently, or perhaps those two players were just down on form. It is an area of concern though because Goldstein is still one who can get well on top in that position.
Attack
Geelong’s attack seems forever in transition, more so than other parts of the field or opposition equivalent. What is encouraging is the recruitment of Fogarty and return of forwards who can pressure – formerly Gregson and now McCarthy. The latter is a lot more dangerous around goals and therefore a superior option at this stage. Pressure inside 50 has increased to my eye and it’s generally been a more balanced set up, reflective of what’s been successful in the competition in recent years. Sav looked like a genuine game changer for the Cats attack and I can’t emphasise what a loss he is. The team misses Menzel’s important timely contributions as well. The likes of Buzza and Crameri are less than adequate replacements. The forward unit face a stern test against a collection of strong one on one defenders that work hard for each other. But then you’d say exactly the same thing with the Kangaroos attack against Geelong defence, so I think the midfield will truly be the difference.
Key matchups
Blicavs looks like the main candidate for taking Brown, but same as North Melbourne will look to do against Hawkins, Geelong will be looking to double team where possible. Thompson should once again take Thompson, while Jacobs I think is best suited to take Selwood. I'm not sure who would try to negate Higgins, which is a worry. It may just end up him vs Dangerfield head to head or something similar. Kolo would probably go to Wood in the absence of Waite. Stewart on Ziebell would be a tasty match up. I suppose Daw is best suited to Buzza, while they try to free up Tarrant for his intercepting game.
What I’m most looking forward to rather than specific 1v1’s is the midfield units against each other, as this is where I expect the game to be won. It would be a decent group for Geelong to get on top of and so a good test of their mettle – will it come together, or will they return to earlier season underwhelming performances?
Prediction
I think given both teams form home ground would warrant favouritism. It’s rare that the Cats lose down at KP (unless Sydney are involved) and I doubt they will be complacent against North Melbourne given their exploits. They will certainly be pushed hard though and I expect it will still be game on in the last quarter.
Geelong by 20 points
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Geelong Cats vs North Melbourne: Round 12 - 13:45 AEST, Saturday June 9th 2018 at GMHBA Stadium
Preamble
At the start of the season not many would have predicted this to be a clash between two teams well and truly in top 4 calculations. Most people would have had Geelong thereabouts, but retirements and an early injury crisis threatened to derail the Cats season before it even got going. Meanwhile the Kangaroos are absolutely flying and have proven they can take their form on the road – desposing of Sydney and Fremantle on their home turf so far. Behind Collingwood vs Melbourne, this probably the most intriguing match of round 12 and the victor will have some serious momentum behind them.
Team Changes
Geelong is unchanged, while North Melbourne brings in Cameron Zurhaar for Jed Anderson (injured).
Team Lineups
Geelong Cats
B Aaron Black, Jake Kolodjashnij, Jed Bews
HB Tom Stewart, Mark Blicavs, Zach Tuohy
C Mitch Duncan, Joel Selwood, Jordan Cunico
HF Tim Kelly, Wylie Buzza, Sam Menegola
F Brandan Parfitt, Tom Hawkins, Jamaine Jones
FOL Rhys Stanley, Patrick Dangerfield, Gary Ablett
I/C Lachie Fogarty, Jack Henry, Lincoln McCarthy, Jordan Murdoch
EMG Ryan Abbott, Cory Gregson, James Parsons, Sam Simpson
North Melbourne
B Marley Williams, Robbie Tarrant, Majak Daw
HB Sam Wright, Scott D. Thompson, Jamie Macmillan
C Trent Dumont, Ben Jacobs, Luke McDonald
HF Kayne Turner, Mason Wood, Shaun Atley
F Jy Simpkin, Ben Brown, Jack Ziebell
FOL Todd Goldstein, Ben Cunnington, Shaun Higgins
I/C Paul Ahern, Billy Hartung, Tom Murphy, Cameron Zurhaar
EMG Ryan Clarke, Alex Morgan, Ben McKay, Will Walker
Opposition analysis
North Melbourne had appeared to be on the decline entering 2018 as they fully committed to a rebuild. After opening season 2016 with 9 consecutive wins, they proceeded to win just 9 of their next 36 games while turning over stalwarts such as Boomer Harvey and Drew Petrie. This season, however, has been a different story. A combination of increased pressure on the opposition, ability to win the contested footy (3rd in the AFL) and fluid ball movement has seen them trouble most teams they have played.
Defence
The defence has tightened up, with North Melbourne conceding the second fewest points per game. Thompson and Tarrant have been excellent, while players such as Macmillan and McDonald provide decent drive off half back and can also move up to the wings. All over the ground the Kangaroos have gained in pace as their list profile has become younger. This is an area that could definitely trouble Geelong, but the question is: can they replicate this at KP, where Geelong continually strangle opposition team’s ball movement?
Midfield
Cunnington and Higgins continue to build their cases for being genuine midfield stars – a 1-2 punch that has arguably eclipsed Selwood and Dangerfield this year. Meanwhile Ben Jacobs has been one of the AFL’s best taggers this season and Goldstein provides good service. Like Geelong this year, they haven’t been dominant in clearances but they certainly hurt you when they get the ball out from the clinches.
Attack
Ziebell’s move up forward has given the team better balance and a different kind of threat in attack. While Mason Wood remains consistent, on his day he is a potential match winner. It goes without saying that Ben Browd is an All Australian level full forward and one of the best focal points going around. It’s not as simple as saying stop Ben Brown and you stop North Melbourne, but it’s fairly high on the to do list. North Melbourne have the 5th most points scored per game and been prolific at times but have also been kept to 4 scores of < 75. It’s likely that Geelong will need to do this to win the game.
Geelong analysis
Defence
Outside of the calamitous last quarter 7 goal onslaught to Sydney, Geelong have averaged just 11.6 points against per quarter at GMHBA – or around 46 points per game. After three leaky games to start the season, they have tightened up to concede 54.3 points per game, comfortably the best in the AFL where they also now sit first overall for defence. In-game injuries undoubtedly contributed to the early heavy scores conceded, and an inexperienced group has required time to gel together. It’s started to look cohesive far earlier than expected however, with Blicavs a revelation since the move to defence, Stewart in All Australian form and Kolodashni relishing the increased responsibility at a key defensive post. Bews can be erratic with ball in hand but is a genuinely high performing lockdown player on small forwards. Touhy has been less prolific in a slightly more accountable role, but is still an important rebounding player. Even Black has come in and been surprisingly adept as a third tall down back.
I think we’ve been fearing for a long time what might happen once our defensive legends retire, but there were also murmurings that we badly needed to freshen up back there. Guys like Mackie and Lonergan were still performing ably in their last years, but we needed some more pace and energy back there. Also to some extent I think younger players were getting less responsibility and playing within themselves while they could hand over to the champions. An important factor has been retaining some of these defenders as assistant coaches. The young talent has the best guidance they could hope for and it’s paying off. It’s not all the defence itself though, because a fairly defensive set up elsewhere reduces the risk of opposition scoring freely from turnovers.
Midfield
After a slow start the midfield has started to click, or at least they’re not getting soundly beaten as they were earlier in the year. Talk of the holy trinity was always nonsense, and all three have either missed games (Ablett) or been carrying niggles (Selwood and Dangerfield). At 26 they could have been the ultimate trio but at this stage we have to settle on them as just very good, and requiring the right balance around them. The lack of a tough defensively minded player, aka Scott Selwood, has seen them exposed at times. Meanwhile Kelly started superbly but had a brief lull, and Duncan has taken some time to find top form. Without being dominant, the midfield have won the clearance count 4 of the past 5 weeks so the signs are there of things clicking. The ruck position throughout the season has been a significant weakness, especially early on when opposition ruckmen were amongst the best players on the field. Stanley has been okay against Kreuzer and Witts recently, or perhaps those two players were just down on form. It is an area of concern though because Goldstein is still one who can get well on top in that position.
Attack
Geelong’s attack seems forever in transition, more so than other parts of the field or opposition equivalent. What is encouraging is the recruitment of Fogarty and return of forwards who can pressure – formerly Gregson and now McCarthy. The latter is a lot more dangerous around goals and therefore a superior option at this stage. Pressure inside 50 has increased to my eye and it’s generally been a more balanced set up, reflective of what’s been successful in the competition in recent years. Sav looked like a genuine game changer for the Cats attack and I can’t emphasise what a loss he is. The team misses Menzel’s important timely contributions as well. The likes of Buzza and Crameri are less than adequate replacements. The forward unit face a stern test against a collection of strong one on one defenders that work hard for each other. But then you’d say exactly the same thing with the Kangaroos attack against Geelong defence, so I think the midfield will truly be the difference.
Key matchups
Blicavs looks like the main candidate for taking Brown, but same as North Melbourne will look to do against Hawkins, Geelong will be looking to double team where possible. Thompson should once again take Thompson, while Jacobs I think is best suited to take Selwood. I'm not sure who would try to negate Higgins, which is a worry. It may just end up him vs Dangerfield head to head or something similar. Kolo would probably go to Wood in the absence of Waite. Stewart on Ziebell would be a tasty match up. I suppose Daw is best suited to Buzza, while they try to free up Tarrant for his intercepting game.
What I’m most looking forward to rather than specific 1v1’s is the midfield units against each other, as this is where I expect the game to be won. It would be a decent group for Geelong to get on top of and so a good test of their mettle – will it come together, or will they return to earlier season underwhelming performances?
Prediction
I think given both teams form home ground would warrant favouritism. It’s rare that the Cats lose down at KP (unless Sydney are involved) and I doubt they will be complacent against North Melbourne given their exploits. They will certainly be pushed hard though and I expect it will still be game on in the last quarter.
Geelong by 20 points
