Game Day Round 15, 2023 - St. Kilda vs. Brisbane Lions

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Level 3 Aisle 12 - best place to watch the footy at Marvel Stadium. Expecting to see Charlie Cameron kick a bag tonight. He dominated here against St.Kilda in 2019 and an encore performance is just what we need. Cameron will deliver.
 
… also, having been critical of Fagan, happy with the side as selected. Our backline is set and really shouldn’t change from here, barring injury. Excited to see Fletcher and Lohmann getting another run and while we could tinker with the midfield rotations, that is basically “best available.” Dev Robertson needs to be picked every week. He deserves it. His attack and tackling power is just what we need. While it is clear Fagan has had to face reality with some of our older players, we have the luxury of calling on our much vaunted depth to undertake a ‘mini rebuild’ mid season. If this line up ‘clicks’, and I am expecting it will. Fagan needs to stay on course and not bring Rich, Gunston or Gardiner in, unless there is an injury to cover AND their form in the reserves merits it. Simply put, rather than being unswervingly loyal to players based on reputation, Fagan needs to give the current lineup a chance and only look at selection based on form, from here to the finals we will no doubt play in.
 
3KZ is Football said:
Level 3 Aisle 12 - best place to watch the footy at Marvel Stadium. Expecting to see Charlie Cameron kick a bag tonight. He dominated here against St.Kilda in 2019 and an encore performance is just what we need. Cameron will deliver.
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Some may think that 3KZ has certain obsessions and may not agree with all his prosnostications but here there can be no argument.

Level 3 Aisle is the best place to watch footy at Marvel unless you are a Medallion Club member
 
A loss tonight would be just as disappointing as the loss to the Hawks IMO, we really should be winning this game tonight if we are serious flag contenders.

Big ladder position ramifications too.. if we do win and the Dockers happen to beat the Bombers tomorrow we will end the round in 3rd a game clear of 4th placed Melbourne and importantly 2 games clear of 5th.
 
M Malice said:
A loss tonight would be just as disappointing as the loss to the Hawks IMO, we really should be winning this game tonight if we are serious flag contenders.

Big ladder position ramifications too.. if we do win and the Dockers happen to beat the Bombers tomorrow we will end the round in 3rd a game clear of 4th placed Melbourne and importantly 2 games clear of 5th.
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8 point game.
 

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M Malice said:
A loss tonight would be just as disappointing as the loss to the Hawks IMO, we really should be winning this game tonight if we are serious flag contenders.

Big ladder position ramifications too.. if we do win and the Dockers happen to beat the Bombers tomorrow we will end the round in 3rd a game clear of 4th placed Melbourne and importantly 2 games clear of 5th.
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Must win. 16 point game.
 
Dalions said:
We know!
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Such a funny post and such a wonderfully patient group of supporters. I was being deliberately ridiculous in the “YOU’VE BEEN DOING IT YO US ALL GAME UMPIRE! screamed by supporter at the 10 minute mark of the first quarter” kind of way. Thanks for getting it.
 
Fascinating stuff. I wonder if we will make Fort the sub or whether we will decide we've made a our bed and have to lie in it with regards to playing one less tall.

For what it's worth, I think it's a mistake, and think we look much more likely to score and create clean opportunities when we have that extra tall presence up there. I guess I'm a bit in the martinson camp on this one.

But I also recognise that if you do want to try a different look, now is the time to do it and not Round 20. So even though it's not something I would have done, I'm ok with giving it a look to see how we go.

As it is, we have essentially backed ourselves into the corner of having to move the ball quickly to be able to score. There literally will be no other option. So either our skills will have to be markedly better than they've been for the last couple of weeks, or we'll need to show we can embrace the Richmond-style pressure and chaos game that we've never really shown under Fagan.

The two keys for mine rest at both ends of the ground. How well can we keep Wilkie occupied? And can Payne go toe to toe with King after he gave Andrews a bath last year (when he didn't hurt us on the scoreboard) and in 2021.

Some KPI's which will tell us in-game whether our plans are working:

With the ball
If it's working:
  • We are transitioning with either forward handball or able to get that quick handball release after taking a mark anywhere between half back and half forward, with other handball options or uncontested marking options ahead of the play
  • Our small forwards have space to work in, either as leading targets up at the ball or when it comes to ground as a result of a marking contest with a taller player
  • When forced to kick long it's to McInerney, Hipwood or Daniher, or Rayner inside 50, who are able to compete aerially and either mark or bring it to ground
  • We're able to get good scoring opportunities, either from marks or broken play, from inside 35m and inside 45⁰
If it's not working:

  • We are forced to kick long down the line to guys who are not McInerney, Hipwood, Daniher or Rayner, and/or we get outmarked when doing so
  • On a fast break we have nobody inside 50 except Charlie running back with the flight of the ball with his opponent down his shorts. Unsustainable.
  • We will get that feeling that everything has to go perfectly for us to score, and that any skill error or bounce of the ball not going our way will result in a turnover.
  • We're forced to take long/wide low percentage shots under pressure

Without the ball (this is all mostly pretty standard but we should be able to do most of it better given we should be able to cover the ground better)

If it's working:

  • Manic pressure which starts with our forward line. Given we have one less tall (read: slow) player up there we have left ourselves no excuses in this regard.
  • We're then able to either force immediate turnovers or forced panicked kicks straight to our numbers.
  • Even when St Kilda are able to force a fast break out of our forward line, structurally we are able to work crossfield to cover all their outlets. Thus we're able to stop the opposing thrust in its tracks, forcing them either into turnover or into a lateral kick for a mark where play is then held up.

If it's not working:
  • They're able to transition easily from back to forward, either by handballing through us or (worse) kick-marking around us.
  • When they're being forced to kick long down the line (and these occasions will be rare if it's not working) they are able to take contested marks as a result of outsizing their direct opponent
  • Our defenders are consistently beaten on the lead as a result of unpressured delivery inside 50, and space for their forwards to lead into.

Ball in dispute

These things are more general and not predicated on how many talls we have. Keen to see whether we're able to keep our feet better in contested ball situations, and hence more easily match their spread. I heard the commentators talking at length about this exact thing last night during the Geelong v Melbourne game.

The other thing I want to see is that we don't have multiple players being sucked in to the same ball. How are we going matching their numbers at the contest and eliminating their loose options on the outside?



I (nearly) always enjoy going to the footy, but I'm particularly interested in going along tonight, sitting up high behind the goals and seeing live how it all functions, or dysfunctions. I might even try to squeeze in an end change at some stage to get 3 quarters at the end to which we're kicking. Hope to have some insights for the review thread over the weekend that perhaps the TV coverage won't capture 🙂
 
Oooh, some quick numbers:

We have about 5 goals up our sleeve. If we lose by about 30 points, St Kilda will go above us on the ladder.

If that does happen, we can fall as low as 6th if Essendon then beats Fremantle by about 10 goals.

Not immediately relevant as it means we would have one more win than them, but a 100 point victory would move our percentage ahead of Melbourne's. But obviously this won't be happening. St Kilda aren't that bad and we aren't going well enough 🙃
 
Yep this is a massive massive game. I think we’ll do it. I love this new look side. Good blend of youth and experience but importantly - speed and lots of two way running!

Unfortunately though I am in the land of long fences so may not get to watch live.
 
No matter the result we shall all rejoice in the knowledge that we need not watch Ross-ball every week. ***

Of course our rejoicing will be more fullsome should we come away with a delicious box of chocolates seasoned with the salty tears of our defeated foes :cool:







*** our sincerest condolences also go out to our St Kilda bretheren whose last 57 years of pain have only been increased by this latest development ... I can only imagine how it must feel to have finally been freed from the shackles of his presence only to have them placed back upon my psyche again :'(
 
3KZ is Football said:
… also, having been critical of Fagan, happy with the side as selected. Our backline is set and really shouldn’t change from here, barring injury. Excited to see Fletcher and Lohmann getting another run and while we could tinker with the midfield rotations, that is basically “best available.” Dev Robertson needs to be picked every week. He deserves it. His attack and tackling power is just what we need. While it is clear Fagan has had to face reality with some of our older players, we have the luxury of calling on our much vaunted depth to undertake a ‘mini rebuild’ mid season. If this line up ‘clicks’, and I am expecting it will. Fagan needs to stay on course and not bring Rich, Gunston or Gardiner in, unless there is an injury to cover AND their form in the reserves merits it. Simply put, rather than being unswervingly loyal to players based on reputation, Fagan needs to give the current lineup a chance and only look at selection based on form, from here to the finals we will no doubt play in.
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Excellent analysis ...an absolute need for speed in the backline and these young guys deserve a chance to get games before finals. I think Fagan also needs to lean on Bailey to be more of a team player and McCarthy to be a small crumbing forward whereas Daniher needs to be pressed to do the simple things like get in position in front - not take a big run-up for the speccie that he invariably drops.
 
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