Preview Round 18: Essendon vs Gold Coast, Docklands, Sunday 17/07/2022 @ 4:40 PM

Winner?


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Last Game

Essendon: The Bombers managed to make it back to back wins and 3 wins in 4 weeks against a depleted but still top 4 fancies Brisbane, a five goal to two second quarter setting up the win for the Bombers. Jye Caldwell played his best game for the Dons, keeping Lachie Neale to 21 disposals whilst collecting 26 and a goal himself, whilst key forward Peter Wright kicked 5, and winger Kyle Langford 4.

Gold Coast: The Suns had a huge come from behind win against Richmond, a 6 goal to 1 final quarter winning the game for Gold Coast in hopes of keeping their finals chances alive. Noah Anderson's 26th disposal and second goal was the winner for them, whilst former Tiger Mabior Chol kicked 3 goals in his first game against his old club, and captain Jarrod Witts continued to press his case for All Australian selection with 17 disposals and 39 hit outs.


Head to Head (last 5)

Essendon 4-1-0 Gold Coast


Form Guide

Essendon: 3W 2L
Gold Coast: 3W 2L


Possible sides

Essendon vs Gold Coast

FB: Sean Lemmens - Sam Collins - Charlie Ballard

FF: Matthew Guelfi - Peter Wright - Jake Stringer
HB: Jack Bowes - Caleb Graham - Brandon Ellis
HF: Will Snelling - Harrison Jones - Sam Durham
MF: David Swallow - Noah Anderson - Jeremy Sharp
MF: Dyson Heppell - Dylan Shiel - Nic Martin
HF: Ben Ainsworth - Mabior Chol - Nick Holman
HB: Nick Hind - Jayden Laverde - Mason Redman
FF: Izak Rankine - Levi Casboult - Sam Day
FB: Jake Kelly - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Jordan Ridley
OB: Jarrod Witts - Touk Miller - Matthew Rowell
OB: Sam Draper - Jye Caldwell - Zachary Merrett
IC: Elijah Hollands - Hewago Paul Oea - Brayden Fiorini - Jack Lukosius
IC: Andrew McGrath - Kyle Langford - Ben Hobbs - Andrew Phillips
MS: Sam Flanders
MS: Alec Waterman

Essendon in: Redman, Waterman; out: Massimo D'Ambrosio (corked quad), Brayden Ham (sub)

Gold Coast in: Rankine, Hollands; out: Malcolm Rosas jr (hamstring), Rory Atkins (sub)


Gold Coast defence vs Essendon forward line

So far Essendon have kicked a goal 21.72% of the time it enters their forward 50, 16th in the AFL. Gold Coast have conceded a goal 22.4% of the time it enters their defensive 50, 10th in the AFL as things stand. The Bombers will be lead by former Sun Peter Wright, who has kicked 40 goals this year through his 16 games, but struggled against his former club last time they met, not getting a goal against former teammate Sam Collins who will take the big key forward again. Harrison Jones missed last game the two sides met and will probably receive attention from Caleb Graham, and Charlie Ballard will kick likely be on the ever dangerous Jake Stringer.


Midfield/rucks battle

Gold Coast are 4th for contested possession difference and 6th in clearance difference in the AFL currently, whilst Essendon are 13th and 12th for those areas respectively. The Dons might look to use Jye Caldwell on star midfielder Touk Miller after his efforts on Lachie Neale, with Dylan Shiel and Zach Merrett being the main ball winners on the inside for the Bombers. Matthew Rowell and Noah Anderson are the main players for the Suns on the inside alongside the aforementioned Miller, and have been much improved in their 3rd year on an AFL list. On the outside, Essendon have been using a rotation of Nic Martin, Sam Durham, Dyson Heppell and Kyle Langford on the wings and forward, whilst former captain David Swallow and young winger Jeremy Sharp have been the guys for the Suns. Rucks wise, Sam Draper and Andrew Phillips have been a strong partnership since forming but have to face probably the best ruck for this year in Jarrod Witts.


Gold Coast forward line vs Essendon defence

Gold Coast have kicked a goal 22.02% of the time it enters their forward 50, 13th in the AFL. Essendon's defence has been very leaky, conceding a goal 25.82% of the time it enters defensive 50, which is 17th in the AFL currently. Mabior Chol has enjoyed his move back to his home state, having 34 goals this year, the undersized Jayden Laverde likely to take the athletic tall. Levi Casboult has also ejoyed the move north, having 27 goals in his 15 games so far and will most likely get attention from the much improved Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, whilst dangerous small Izak Rankine will be played on by Jake Kelly.


X-Factor Player

Top 10 draft pick Elijah Hollands has been impressive in the VFL and could be in line for his debut, the midfielder possessing a rare balance of power and skill for the Suns, averaging 20.8 disposals in the VFL this year.


Key stat

Essendon: Clearances. Of the Bombers 5 wins, only 1 have they trailed in clearances, so it's very important for the Bombers to win this area of the ground.

Gold Coast: Goals/Inside 50. The Suns have 3 targets up there that are bigger than their bombers counterparts so they need to exploit that to win.


Tip

Gold Coast are pushing for finals and they should get over the top by 22 points.
 

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IN: Redman, Menzie, Waterman
OUT: Kelly, D’Ambrosio Ham

Ridley Zerk Hind
Redman Lav McGrath
Durham Shiel Martin
Langford Stringer Guelfi
Jones 2MP Menzie

Draper Caldwell Merrett

Bench: Heppell Hobbs Snelling Phillips
SUB: Waterman


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Jake Kelly holds the best small forward in the AFL to one goal and you still want to drop him.
 
I don’t think he was directly on Charlie Cameron if that’s who you are referring to - and yes - I’d like to see us debut Menzie


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I don’t think he was directly on Charlie Cameron if that’s who you are referring to - and yes - I’d like to see us debut Menzie


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He was on Cameron all game. The commentary mentioned it about 20 times. And he completely demolished him.

And you want to debut a small forward so you drop a defender. Makes perfect sense.
 
He was on Cameron all game. The commentary mentioned it about 20 times. And he completely demolished him.

And you want to debut a small forward so you drop a defender. Makes perfect sense.

Im bring in Redman for Kelly, and a debutant for a 2 gamer as we have more than enough defenders…Charlie just had a poor game - but according to you Kelly ‘demolished’ him. Your a funny guy 🤣. Now go to sleep Ethan

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Charlie just had a poor game - but according to you Kelly ‘demolished’ him. Your a funny guy 🤣


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Just had a poor game. Unable to give him credit. Even the most ardent Kelly detractors said he played a great game. Oh yeah, the one goal Cameron kicked? Was because Draper took 5 blokes on, got caught and he was forced to cover a deeper forward on the turnover because we were out of position.

What's next, Laverde had a s**t game on Daniher who simply had a poor game?
 
IN: Redman, Menzie, Waterman
OUT: Kelly, D’Ambrosio Ham

Ridley Zerk Hind
Redman Lav McGrath
Durham Shiel Martin
Langford Stringer Guelfi
Jones 2MP Menzie

Draper Caldwell Merrett

Bench: Heppell Hobbs Snelling Phillips
SUB: Waterman


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So... Kelly ran over your dog? Got your daughter pregnant? Didn't give way at a roundabout?
 
So... Kelly ran over your dog? Got your daughter pregnant? Didn't give way at a roundabout?
Looked at him sideways but did not kick it to him 😛
 
Obvious challenge but winnable at home.

Could be a really good game if we show up.

Good test for GC to beat a team they should beat but who has found some form and is at home.
 

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We're still a mathematical chance for 8th if we win every game and all the sides between 8th and 15th somehow lose most of their games
 
Redman in for D’Ambrosio would be all I’d do, Waterman as the sub.

Although Merrett did make mention of them being pretty spent in the last quarter, maybe 1 or 2 of the young fellas have a rest and we get a look at Menzie potentially.
 
Of course I'll be barracking for us but part of me won't be too upset if we lose because I would love to see the Suns make the finals.
 
Im bring in Redman for Kelly, and a debutant for a 2 gamer as we have more than enough defenders…Charlie just had a poor game - but according to you Kelly ‘demolished’ him. Your a funny guy 🤣. Now go to sleep Ethan

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Usually don’t agree with Ethan, but you just need to take a L on this one mate. Kelly gave Cameron a bath.
 
Of course I'll be barracking for us but part of me won't be too upset if we lose because I would love to see the Suns make the finals.
Yep, same.
Usually don’t agree with Ethan, but you just need to take a L on this one mate. Kelly gave Cameron a bath.
Good to see you finally talking sense ;)
Yep, I'd rather get a look at Menzie than bring Waterman in. Give the kid a few games and let's find out what we've got.
Waterman would only come in as sub.
 
We're still a mathematical chance for 8th if we win every game and all the sides between 8th and 15th somehow lose most of their games
I just put $100 of Heppell for the Norm
 
It was a good run of wins, but I think Gold Coast will win this one. If I were to pick the game to lose between St Kilda, Sydney, Brisbane and Gold Coast, I'd pick Gold Coast. I'd be very happy with a win of course, but a close loss won't be disastrous.

Caldwell goes straight to Miller. Let's see if he can back up his game vs Neale.
 
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