Preview Round 21 - Fremantle vs Brisbane Lions • Sunday 6 August 2023 • 4:40 PM • Optus Stadium

[KissKiss]

Round 21 sees us on the road for the second week in a row and facing the longest regular trip in footy and facing Fremantle in their traditional Sunday afternoon timeslot. We knocked them off pretty easily by 48 points in Round 7 but dont be fooled the return leg is not an easy game on any measure.

For a preview I'd normally like to at least to watch a few of their games but with a new baby in the house and me suffering from a cold I really cant be bothered. So most of this preview will be copied from my effort last year patched together with a few tidbits from their own board

Flagmantle to Flopmantle
Last year Fremantle were one of the surprise packets of the year and one of the people's favourites for the flag. They finished in 5th and were eventually knocked out by Collingwood in the Semi-final. Their year was based off the best defence, fantastic run off the half back line and quick forwards. They knocked us off 99-85 with exactly those weapons. Big things were expected for them in 2023 with the return of their aging superstar Fyfe.

But somehow this year (to the Death-Riding Melbourne fans delight) they have completely dropped off this year. Instead of having a top 4 pick they are handing it off to the Dees. The trading out of role players Lobb and Acres has not been bettered by selling the farm for Luke Jackson

9

Luke Jackson

Age

22

Ht

199cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

3star

K

3.3

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

. Fyfe has had another injury plagued year. It just hasnt seemed to come together at all this year. Although last week knocking off Geelong in Geelong showed they still can be a weapon who on their day can put it all together.

Looking at their team they still have a few critical components to be aware of:

• A potent midfield - Serong and Brayshaw are underrated stars and Jackson seems to be getting much better now he is solo rucking. No Darcy potentially helps us though. O'Meara is a solid veteran as is Aish these days. They can definitely be competitive
• Run off the half back line - I like seeing the run of Young and Clarke, while Ryan is putting up another big year. Hamling and Captain Pearce are both good defenders holding down key spots
• A potential Rising Star winner - sadly with Ashcroft on the outer their is a potential winner out west in Jye Amiss. 33 goals from a 20 year old is pretty impressive and he should getting votes come the end of the year.

Changes this week
I admit, despite sitting in a great position 3rd on the ladder, Ive been vocally disappointed in many aspects of our year so far. There are a bunch of small little factors that we just dont look like handling properly to give ourselves the best chance of winning the premiership. But all we can do is keep looking forward to the future and see if we can learn from our mistakes and do better. Its not normally in our coaching DNA to make many changes but I think this week we might be forced to. We have a few potential injuries that might need managing, a few midfielders short and some effort levels that need improving.

I'd like to see the following considered:

• Gunston out - Dev in. I havent been happy with Gunston's selection for most of the year but think there should be little chance of him flying this week. His fitness and run has dropped way off again and he looks like he needs another "training block". Even if he was fit I think we would look to rest him from this trip anyway. With Rayner and Ah Chee (in career best form) we should be fine dropping a forward and bringing in an extra mid. From all reports Dev was the best VFL mid last year and is never say die attitude is needed in the firsts
• Lohman out - Bailey in. Simple change Bailey is best 22 ahead of Lohman. We dont need the extra small forward and Bailey can pick up some extra mid minutes.
• Oscar out (injured)- Fort in. I think Oscar is a bit underrated on this board, he does struggle against the best rucks but is a solid mid tier ruckman. But he also struggles as he gets worn down over the year. He was off injured late on the weekend so a break this week could do him good. Fort is there as a decent back up so now is the time to use him.
• Coleman (injured) - not sure what to do here but if he is injured. Rich is the like for like and could do with a farewell game at home in WA. Not sure there are many other options.

Prediction
This is a major danger game for us. Freo definitely have the pace to push us and we must be feeling pretty flat about leaving the Gabba again. Hopefully we fire up again and go with a smaller and faster line up. With much trepidation I'll say we get up by 7 points.

 

[Tom14]

View attachment 1761316

Round 21 sees us on the road for the second week in a row and facing the longest regular trip in footy and facing Fremantle in their traditional Sunday afternoon timeslot. We knocked them off pretty easily by 48 points in Round 7 but dont be fooled the return leg is not an easy game on any measure.

For a preview I'd normally like to at least to watch a few of their games but with a new baby in the house and me suffering from a cold I really cant be bothered. So most of this preview will be copied from my effort last year patched together with a few tidbits from their own board

Flagmantle to Flopmantle
Last year Fremantle were one of the surprise packets of the year and one of the people's favourites for the flag. They finished in 5th and were eventually knocked out by Collingwood in the Semi-final. Their year was based off the best defence, fantastic run off the half back line and quick forwards. They knocked us off 99-85 with exactly those weapons. Big things were expected for them in 2023 with the return of their aging superstar Fyfe.

But somehow this year (to the Death-Riding Melbourne fans delight) they have completely dropped off this year. Instead of having a top 4 pick they are handing it off to the Dees. The trading out of role players Lobb and Acres has not been bettered by selling the farm for Luke Jackson. Fyfe has had another injury plagued year. It just hasnt seemed to come together at all this year. Although last week knocking off Geelong in Geelong showed they still can be a weapon who on their day can put it all together.

Looking at their team they still have a few critical components to be aware of:

• A potent midfield - Serong and Brayshaw are underrated stars and Jackson seems to be getting much better now he is solo rucking. No Darcy potentially helps us though. O'Meara is a solid veteran as is Aish these days. They can definitely be competitive
• Run off the half back line - I like seeing the run of Young and Clarke, while Ryan is putting up another big year. Hamling and Captain Pearce are both good defenders holding down key spots
• A potential Rising Star winner - sadly with Ashcroft on the outer their is a potential winner out west in Jye Amiss. 33 goals from a 20 year old is pretty impressive and he should getting votes come the end of the year.

Changes this week
I admit, despite sitting in a great position 3rd on the ladder, Ive been vocally disappointed in many aspects of our year so far. There are a bunch of small little factors that we just dont look like handling properly to give ourselves the best chance of winning the premiership. But all we can do is keep looking forward to the future and see if we can learn from our mistakes and do better. Its not normally in our coaching DNA to make many changes but I think this week we might be forced to. We have a few potential injuries that might need managing, a few midfielders short and some effort levels that need improving.

I'd like to see the following considered:

• Gunston out - Dev in. I havent been happy with Gunston's selection for most of the year but think there should be little chance of him flying this week. His fitness and run has dropped way off again and he looks like he needs another "training block". Even if he was fit I think we would look to rest him from this trip anyway. With Rayner and Ah Chee (in career best form) we should be fine dropping a forward and bringing in an extra mid. From all reports Dev was the best VFL mid last year and is never say die attitude is needed in the firsts
• Lohman out - Bailey in. Simple change Bailey is best 22 ahead of Lohman. We dont need the extra small forward and Bailey can pick up some extra mid minutes.
• Oscar out (injured)- Fort in. I think Oscar is a bit underrated on this board, he does struggle against the best rucks but is a solid mid tier ruckman. But he also struggles as he gets worn down over the year. He was off injured late on the weekend so a break this week could do him good. Fort is there as a decent back up so now is the time to use him.
• Coleman (injured) - not sure what to do here but if he is injured. Rich is the like for like and could do with a farewell game at home in WA. Not sure there are many other options.

Prediction
This is a major danger game for us. Freo definitely have the pace to push us and we must be feeling pretty flat about leaving the Gabba again. Hopefully we fire up again and go with a smaller and faster line up. With much trepidation I'll say we get up by 7 points.

Did anything happen to Coleman other than being falconed late in the game? I assume we will find out soon if he went into the concussion protocol as a result.

 

[Nunez]

Did anything happen to Coleman other than being falconed late in the game? I assume we will find out soon if he went into the concussion protocol as a result.

Was an eye issue not concussion .

 

[Sproj]

We are a bit banged up on top of being a but shellshocked on top of being a bit clueless on how to fix issues that have been there for three years on top of a long trip. Hope I’m wrong but I’m worried Good Coast might have broken us. Would be nice if this team comes out and makes a statement but I fear another decent loss coming on.

 

[Viceregal]

Weirdly enough...

Fremantle 70 - 82 Brisbane Lions

Perth Stadium (WA)
HGA:

+13.6 pts
Ins/Outs:

+0.0 pts

Mind you it also has Port losing to Geelong (good) and Melb crushing the Roos (not so good)

 

[mpal6]

We are a bit banged up on top of being a but shellshocked on top of being a bit clueless on how to fix issues that have been there for three years on top of a long trip. Hope I’m wrong but I’m worried Good Coast might have broken us. Would be nice if this team comes out and makes a statement but I fear another decent loss coming on.

Needs a faster line up on a faster deck.

Up to match committee now.

 

[Dalions]

Needs a faster line up on a faster deck.

Up to match committee now.

Enter - Daniel Rich

 

[Nathan Barley]

Weirdly enough...

Fremantle 70 - 82 Brisbane Lions

Perth Stadium (WA)
HGA:

+13.6 pts
Ins/Outs:

+0.0 pts

Mind you it also has Port losing to Geelong (good) and Melb crushing the Roos (not so good)

Is our poor away form starting to be included or are freo just that good at home?

 

[M Malice]

Needs a faster line up on a faster deck.

Up to match committee now.

I am holding off going into full meltdown mode, although if we lose this one I think some serious conversations and consequences will be needed at selection.

Berry, Rayner, Zorko, Gunston, McInerney will all be selected this weekend.. they should be on notice and need to perform. The likes of Sharp, Tunstill, Fort, Cockatoo, Robertson should be pressuring them for their spots in the side.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Oscar has now dropped out of the top 20 rucks for % hit outs to advantage

 

[Viceregal]

Is our poor away form starting to be included or are freo just that good at home?

From the website..

There is a bias there – home advantage is worth something – but it’s not a guaranteed ride to the Top Eight, or even a single extra win. You still actually have to be a good team.


(In the above table, “Significant Home Advantage” means games between interstate teams at a home ground, Geelong playing anyone at Kardinia Park, and Hawthorn or North dragging anyone off to Tassie.)


Of course, there are different degrees of home advantage. In Round 19 alone, we had:

• West Coast vs St Kilda @ Perth Stadium (WA) – an interstate game with fervent crowd support for the home team – that’s about as extreme a case as you’ll find, and good for 13.3 pts, by Squiggle’s model, which is generally calibrated to the level of crowd support
• Carlton vs GWS @ Docklands (Victoria) – an interstate game with good home crowd support, at a venue frequented fairly often by the away team – that’s 7.9 pts
• Brisbane vs Gold Coast @ the Gabba (Queensland) – two teams with smaller fan bases from the same state at one’s home ground – 2.8 pts
• Collingwood vs Essendon @ MCG (Victoria) – an extremely well-supported team hosts a very well-supported team at the Magpies’ home ground – 2.6 pts
• North Melbourne vs Hawthorn @ Bellerive Oval (Tasmania) – two teams in their secondary state, at a ground more often played by the Kangaroos – 2.0 pts

 

[Nathan Barley]

From the website..

There is a bias there – home advantage is worth something – but it’s not a guaranteed ride to the Top Eight, or even a single extra win. You still actually have to be a good team.


(In the above table, “Significant Home Advantage” means games between interstate teams at a home ground, Geelong playing anyone at Kardinia Park, and Hawthorn or North dragging anyone off to Tassie.)


Of course, there are different degrees of home advantage. In Round 19 alone, we had:

• West Coast vs St Kilda @ Perth Stadium (WA) – an interstate game with fervent crowd support for the home team – that’s about as extreme a case as you’ll find, and good for 13.3 pts, by Squiggle’s model, which is generally calibrated to the level of crowd support
• Carlton vs GWS @ Docklands (Victoria) – an interstate game with good home crowd support, at a venue frequented fairly often by the away team – that’s 7.9 pts
• Brisbane vs Gold Coast @ the Gabba (Queensland) – two teams with smaller fan bases from the same state at one’s home ground – 2.8 pts
• Collingwood vs Essendon @ MCG (Victoria) – an extremely well-supported team hosts a very well-supported team at the Magpies’ home ground – 2.6 pts
• North Melbourne vs Hawthorn @ Bellerive Oval (Tasmania) – two teams in their secondary state, at a ground more often played by the Kangaroos – 2.0 pts

Seems pretty dumb if it's mostly based on the percentage of your teams fans in the crowd

 

[Viceregal]

Seems pretty dumb if it's mostly based on the percentage of your teams fans in the crowd

That blurb also seems a bit out of date as the presented figures don't match what they have been using in practice.

 

[Nathan Barley]

That blurb also seems a bit out of date as the presented figures don't match what they have been using in practice.

I mean we've won 100% of home games and 33% away but they usually put our HGA at 7 or 8 points which is ridiculous

 

[Quigley]

When we lose our defensive run is poor and we fall off way too many tackles. Fix those aspects and we win virtually every time.

The problem is that we are constantly trying to cover for McCluggage and to a lesser extent Neale through the middle of the ground. Those two often leave too many gaps fast teams can utilise and last weekend there just wasn't the will to recover. The Suns got more of the ball than we did in better positions and the used it better and worked harder. No-one stepped up to win the ball Ashcroft usually does. Now is probably the time to give Robertson a go onball to see if he is going to make it. That is his best position and we need help there. He will provide effort if nothing else. Lohman comes out. Bailey coming back would be a complicating factor.

O is a guy who usually relies on breaking even in the middle but against Melb and GC he was exceptionally poor and Daniher offers nothing as the back up. Fort usually is solid when he comes in but he also was well beaten on the weekend and is not really demanding selection. With that being the case I think you have to pick both of them against Freo and with Gunston again being our clear worst player I would see the change there as being an easy one.

If Coleman goes out I would like to see Madden get another shot. Last time he did not get much of the ball but he has been the best small defender in the VFL and I think he shores up our defense. It would be a different look to replace Coleman with him but different is not always worse.

Personally I would also like to see Sharp given a chance at some stage. I have been a staunch supporter of Berry but it has gotten to the stage where even I have to question whether we might be better looking at others especially when he is not really a winger who is played on the wing.

 

[Nathan Barley]

When we lose our defensive run is poor and we fall off way too many tackles. Fix those aspects and we win virtually every time.

The problem is that we are constantly trying to cover for McCluggage and to a lesser extent Neale through the middle of the ground. Those two often leave too many gaps fast teams can utilise and last weekend there just wasn't the will to recover. The Suns got more of the ball than we did in better positions and the used it better and worked harder. No-one stepped up to win the ball Ashcroft usually does. Now is probably the time to give Robertson a go onball to see if he is going to make it. That is his best position and we need help there. He will provide effort if nothing else. Lohman comes out. Bailey coming back would be a complicating factor.

O is a guy who usually relies on breaking even in the middle but against Melb and GC he was exceptionally poor and Daniher offers nothing as the back up. Fort usually is solid when he comes in but he also was well beaten on the weekend and is not really demanding selection. With that being the case I think you have to pick both of them against Freo and with Gunston again being our clear worst player I would see the change there as being an easy one.

If Coleman goes out I would like to see Madden get another shot. Last time he did not get much of the ball but he has been the best small defender in the VFL and I think he shores up our defense. It would be a different look to replace Coleman with him but different is not always worse.

Personally I would also like to see Sharp given a chance at some stage. I have been a staunch supporter of Berry but it has gotten to the stage where even I have to question whether we might be better looking at others especially when he is not really a winger who is played on the wing.

Madden is out for the season

 

[Nunez]

When we lose our defensive run is poor and we fall off way too many tackles. Fix those aspects and we win virtually every time.

The problem is that we are constantly trying to cover for McCluggage and to a lesser extent Neale through the middle of the ground. Those two often leave too many gaps fast teams can utilise and last weekend there just wasn't the will to recover. The Suns got more of the ball than we did in better positions and the used it better and worked harder. No-one stepped up to win the ball Ashcroft usually does. Now is probably the time to give Robertson a go onball to see if he is going to make it. That is his best position and we need help there. He will provide effort if nothing else. Lohman comes out. Bailey coming back would be a complicating factor.

O is a guy who usually relies on breaking even in the middle but against Melb and GC he was exceptionally poor and Daniher offers nothing as the back up. Fort usually is solid when he comes in but he also was well beaten on the weekend and is not really demanding selection. With that being the case I think you have to pick both of them against Freo and with Gunston again being our clear worst player I would see the change there as being an easy one.

If Coleman goes out I would like to see Madden get another shot. Last time he did not get much of the ball but he has been the best small defender in the VFL and I think he shores up our defense. It would be a different look to replace Coleman with him but different is not always worse.

Personally I would also like to see Sharp given a chance at some stage. I have been a staunch supporter of Berry but it has gotten to the stage where even I have to question whether we might be better looking at others especially when he is not really a winger who is played on the wing.

Madden is out for the season

 

[Milux]

I'd love to see rich back but I'm not sure he finished the VFL game on Saturday. Looked hobbled and in a jumper when they were walking to the sheds.

 

[M Malice]

Injuries could see Rich return as Lions look to bounce back
Coleman out and Big O could be out.

From Fish >

BRISBANE will be without rebounding defender Keidean Coleman for Sunday's match against Fremantle, while ruckman Oscar McInerney is also in doubt to make the trip west.

Coleman's absence could open the door for Daniel Rich to revive his season after the veteran defender was dropped seven weeks ago, initially for a training block and then not recalled.

 

[M Malice]

I'd love to see rich back but I'm not sure he finished the VFL game on Saturday. Looked hobbled and in a jumper when they were walking to the sheds.

IMO Rich has been strikingly ordinary in his games in the reserves, has not earnt a recall.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Kiddy is a huge loss. If fit and in form Rich would make sense. Need another decent kick down back.

Maybe play Dizzy and get Lester to play more of a quarterback role?

Or Zorko?

 

[Nathan Barley]

I'd go

Fort for Oscar
Bailey for Gunston or Lohmann
Dev for Kiddy

Zorko down back

 

[Dalions]

IMO Rich has been strikingly ordinary in his games in the reserves, has not earnt a recall.

Even at VFL level he takes an Eternity to make a decision with the ball. Especially at kick ins.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Even at VFL level he takes an Eternity to make a decision with the ball. Especially at kick ins.

Might have something to do with up the field as well

 

[Dalions]

I'd go

Fort for Oscar
Bailey for Gunston or Lohmann
Dev for Kiddy

Zorko down back

Hopefully we rest Oscar and Gunston anyway.
Both are looking battered and sore.
Hopefully Fort and Cam Rayner make it a hard decision for Fages to bring them straight back in.