Racing September Daily Punt- RIP Mikaela Claridge & Mel Tyndall

Who wins the Golden Rose


  • Total voters
    25
  • Poll closed .

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HeathComeBack

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 17, 2014
7,031
7,125
AFL Club
Collingwood
So at 4 she's a moral but 5 she'd be too unfit - seems about as legit a theory as the 10k Cup rule discussion
there are statistics that show that horses win more in a certain time frame from when the date they raced before. Thats fact and has held up for decades. You ignore those facts and you will lose in the long run.
 

iluvparis

Hall of Famer
Apr 1, 2005
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there are statistics that show that horses win more in a certain time frame from when the date they raced before. Thats fact and has held up for decades. You ignore those facts and you will lose in the long run.
What if she raced next Wednesday would that be ok? Or do horses drop off a cliff if they haven't raced within 28 days?

I think you need to watch some European racing to see how made up this myth is.
 

HeathComeBack

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 17, 2014
7,031
7,125
AFL Club
Collingwood
What if she raced next Wednesday would that be ok? Or do horses drop off a cliff if they haven't raced within 28 days?

I think you need to watch some European racing to see how made up this myth is.
this is Australia. Could not give a rats rear end about European racing, its actually rubbish racing except for the big meetings and jumping.
Anyway keep doing what your doing. i am sure it works for you....
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
14,396
15,395
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
this is Australia. Could not give a rats rear end about European racing, its actually rubbish racing except for the big meetings and jumping.
Anyway keep doing what your doing. i am sure it works for you....
From what i can tell >+200m dist change when faves, drops SR from 34% to 28% and POT from -8% to -29% when between 29-59 days from last start.

thats a big drop.
 

iluvparis

Hall of Famer
Apr 1, 2005
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this is Australia. Could not give a rats rear end about European racing, its actually rubbish racing except for the big meetings and jumping.
Anyway keep doing what your doing. i am sure it works for you....
This is the kind of intellect I'd expect to see from someone who paid off their house on the punt ;)

Question avoiding Liefzy would be proud of though - if she is a moral off a 4 week break but a lay off a 5 week lay off where does this magical fitness cliff kick in? Can't you see why this seems a little bit questionable?
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
14,396
15,395
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
This is the kind of intellect I'd expect to see from someone who paid off their house on the punt ;)

Question avoiding Liefzy would be proud of though - if she is a moral off a 4 week break but a lay off a 5 week lay off where does this magical fitness cliff kick in? Can't you see why this seems a little bit questionable?
seems to be about 29 days from what i see which is effectively 5 weeks or significant change in grade as saturday to saturday is 28 days.
 

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iluvparis

Hall of Famer
Apr 1, 2005
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Calgary Flames, Man Utd
SR% drops after 28 days. POT goes up but more indication of the robot's laying them because drop in SR

14 days: 31%/-9.8%
21 days: 31%/-9.0%
28 days: 31%/+4.8%
35 days: 27%/-0.1%
42 days: 21%/-59.0%
Good stats - suggests to me old Heathsy has gone a week or so to early with his cliff theory
 

HeathComeBack

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 17, 2014
7,031
7,125
AFL Club
Collingwood
This is the kind of intellect I'd expect to see from someone who paid off their house on the punt ;)

Question avoiding Liefzy would be proud of though - if she is a moral off a 4 week break but a lay off a 5 week lay off where does this magical fitness cliff kick in? Can't you see why this seems a little bit questionable?
My intellect follows racing statistics in Australia because European statistics for Australian racing are 100 percent irrelevant.
Its not questionable at all. Proof is in the stats. Aussie training methods are different and therefore they hold up in Australia.
I have many many rules that have stood the test of time, too many to post here, i might start another thread one day to list them. They may not pick winners but they sure do stop me backing losers and this one works.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
14,396
15,395
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Good stats - suggests to me old Heathsy has gone a week or so to early with his cliff theory
sort of.

the same horse at the same price still says 28 days better. It's just the SP indicates "they" lay them incorrectly when they are only slightly inferior at 35 days.
 

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