Review Talls taken in the National Draft

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rogiebear93

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I'll be honest, I still don't fully get the hype around Darcy.
I don't know if this will make sense to people but form the footage I've seen of him he seems a little too.... much of a straight line, if that makes sense.
All for him being highly rated if it helps us get a better pick/into the draft quicker, but yeah.
Here's a quick analysis on "the best" key forward in each draft, vs the bloke who actually became the best forward from that draft. Very rarely does best forward in the draft actually end up meaning best forward, most of the time kids who dominate those positions U18 are just more developed. Especially if they are as you say, straight line mark and kick goals players.

Starting at 2017, just to give a decent few years to show output:

2017: Naughton highest rated, and current best
2016: Todd Marshall (Pick 16) highest rated, Nick Larkey (Pick 73) current best
2015: Josh Schache (Pick 2) highest rated, McKay/Hipwood (10, 14) current best
2014: Paddy McCartin (Pick 1) highest rated, pretty light on for key forwards in this draft - Peter Wright is the current best (Pick 8)
2013: Tom Boyd (Pick 1), Ben Brown (Pick 47) current best
2012: Joe Daniher (Pick 10 f/s) highest rated and current best
2011: Jon Patton (Pick 1) highest rated and best, despite retiring (woeful key forward year)
2010: Sam Day (Pick 3) highest rated, Jack Darling/Tom Lynch (Pick 26, Pick 11) best
2009: John Butcher (Pick 8) highest rated, Jack Gunston (Pick 29) best
 

rei154

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Here's a quick analysis on "the best" key forward in each draft, vs the bloke who actually became the best forward from that draft. Very rarely does best forward in the draft actually end up meaning best forward, most of the time kids who dominate those positions U18 are just more developed. Especially if they are as you say, straight line mark and kick goals players.

Starting at 2017, just to give a decent few years to show output:

2017: Naughton highest rated, and current best
2016: Todd Marshall (Pick 16) highest rated, Nick Larkey (Pick 73) current best
2015: Josh Schache (Pick 2) highest rated, McKay/Hipwood (10, 14) current best
2014: Paddy McCartin (Pick 1) highest rated, pretty light on for key forwards in this draft - Peter Wright is the current best (Pick 8)
2013: Tom Boyd (Pick 1), Ben Brown (Pick 47) current best
2012: Joe Daniher (Pick 10 f/s) highest rated and current best
2011: Jon Patton (Pick 1) highest rated and best, despite retiring (woeful key forward year)
2010: Sam Day (Pick 3) highest rated, Jack Darling/Tom Lynch (Pick 26, Pick 11) best
2009: John Butcher (Pick 8) highest rated, Jack Gunston (Pick 29) best
Yep. Because of this I think that taking a KPF in the top 5 is incredibly risky.
I think going off current form I'd say Amiss and JVR would be higher on my list of players to take for that role, but I wouldn't want to spend a sub15 pick on any of them.
 

Brishawk

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Here's a quick analysis on "the best" key forward in each draft, vs the bloke who actually became the best forward from that draft. Very rarely does best forward in the draft actually end up meaning best forward, most of the time kids who dominate those positions U18 are just more developed. Especially if they are as you say, straight line mark and kick goals players.

Starting at 2017, just to give a decent few years to show output:

2017: Naughton highest rated, and current best
2016: Todd Marshall (Pick 16) highest rated, Nick Larkey (Pick 73) current best
2015: Josh Schache (Pick 2) highest rated, McKay/Hipwood (10, 14) current best
2014: Paddy McCartin (Pick 1) highest rated, pretty light on for key forwards in this draft - Peter Wright is the current best (Pick 8)
2013: Tom Boyd (Pick 1), Ben Brown (Pick 47) current best
2012: Joe Daniher (Pick 10 f/s) highest rated and current best
2011: Jon Patton (Pick 1) highest rated and best, despite retiring (woeful key forward year)
2010: Sam Day (Pick 3) highest rated, Jack Darling/Tom Lynch (Pick 26, Pick 11) best
2009: John Butcher (Pick 8) highest rated, Jack Gunston (Pick 29) best
This is a good start but you are censoring out potential champion players by only including first picked and best. I’ll try knock something up. I should have a good dataset for this already. From memory, kpf taken in the top ten out perform log through the rest of the draft. So while one kpf may turn out to be a champion taken at pick 70, the odds of landing one at around that pick are probably much worse than top ten.
 

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Brishawk

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For anyone who is interested, these charts are based on the whole history of the draft. This shows where players who have kicked more than 200 goals were drafted.

1631183292095.png

Count of players to kick over 200 goals by draft pick range.
1631183844072.png


This is a heat map of players chosen in each draft range and goals kicked.
1631183726746.png

Basically, plenty if star goal kickers picked all through the draft but top 5 still your best shot at it. 6-10 looks like a bit of a death zone. Top 20 is generally solid though and your chances diminish as you pick gets bigger. Note also that there is a bunch chaos at the beginning of the draft.

From 2000 onwards:
1631184137334.png


1631184084509.png

1631184180008.png


EDIT: does not include rookie draft.
 

tommyk72

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For anyone who is interested, these charts are based on the whole history of the draft. This shows where players who have kicked more than 200 goals were drafted.

View attachment 1230794
Count of players to kick over 200 goals by draft pick range.
View attachment 1230806

This is a heat map of players chosen in each draft range and goals kicked.
View attachment 1230805
Basically, plenty if star goal kickers picked all through the draft but top 5 still your best shot at it. 6-10 looks like a bit of a death zone. Top 20 is generally solid though and your chances diminish as you pick gets bigger. Note also that there is a bunch chaos at the beginning of the draft.

From 2000 onwards:
View attachment 1230810

View attachment 1230809
View attachment 1230811

EDIT: does not include rookie draft.
I’ll be bloody annoyed if we kick a KPF with our first pick this year ;)

On another note, can you somehow zoom in on only KPFs? For eg, I imagine lethal is in there.
 

rogiebear93

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Yep. Because of this I think that taking a KPF in the top 5 is incredibly risky.
I think going off current form I'd say Amiss and JVR would be higher on my list of players to take for that role, but I wouldn't want to spend a sub15 pick on any of them.
I agree, unless they have a really outstanding trait. The King brothers are obviously worth the punt early because they ran under 3 second 20m sprint times, which is truly outstanding.

This is a good start but you are censoring out potential champion players by only including first picked and best. I’ll try knock something up. I should have a good dataset for this already. From memory, kpf taken in the top ten out perform log through the rest of the draft. So while one kpf may turn out to be a champion taken at pick 70, the odds of landing one at around that pick are probably much worse than top ten.
It wasn't intentional. It was more a point that key forwards highly rated based on output in the U18 contests are rarely going to be the best forwards, for example Schache, Boyd, Patton who were selected early based on being 3 of the best goal scorers in the history of the U18 carnival despite being relatively one dimensional.

It was more that its statistically a bad idea take the risk on using a top 3 pick for a key forward.

90% of the best forwards have been taken somewhere between 5 and 15.
 

rogiebear93

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For anyone who is interested, these charts are based on the whole history of the draft. This shows where players who have kicked more than 200 goals were drafted.

View attachment 1230794
Count of players to kick over 200 goals by draft pick range.
View attachment 1230806

This is a heat map of players chosen in each draft range and goals kicked.
View attachment 1230805
Basically, plenty if star goal kickers picked all through the draft but top 5 still your best shot at it. 6-10 looks like a bit of a death zone. Top 20 is generally solid though and your chances diminish as you pick gets bigger. Note also that there is a bunch chaos at the beginning of the draft.

From 2000 onwards:
View attachment 1230810

View attachment 1230809
View attachment 1230811

EDIT: does not include rookie draft.
I think this is skewed by the fact that a lot of goal kicking midfielders are taken early.
Example, Dustin Martin at pick 3 is the second highest scoring player from the 09 draft behind Gunston.
 

The Chad and I

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For anyone who is interested, these charts are based on the whole history of the draft. This shows where players who have kicked more than 200 goals were drafted.

View attachment 1230794
Count of players to kick over 200 goals by draft pick range.
View attachment 1230806

This is a heat map of players chosen in each draft range and goals kicked.
View attachment 1230805
Basically, plenty if star goal kickers picked all through the draft but top 5 still your best shot at it. 6-10 looks like a bit of a death zone. Top 20 is generally solid though and your chances diminish as you pick gets bigger. Note also that there is a bunch chaos at the beginning of the draft.

From 2000 onwards:
View attachment 1230810

View attachment 1230809
View attachment 1230811

EDIT: does not include rookie draft.
Great charts, thanks for posting.
Just goes to show that the top end draft picks are more about mitigating risk than identifying the most talented.
That's why midfielders dominate those picks. Still, the best forwards are taken at the top-end, but most forwards are taken with middle round picks.
 

Brishawk

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I’ll be bloody annoyed if we kick a KPF with our first pick this year ;)

On another note, can you somehow zoom in on only KPFs? For eg, I imagine lethal is in there.
Lethal wasn’t drafted so he is out already. 😉

I’ll need to merge the draft data with the player height data and go from there. It will thin the herd. Might do it tomorrow night or over the weekend. Problem is the player names are written differently on every bloody site so makes it hard to join them.
 

Brishawk

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I think this is skewed by the fact that a lot of goal kicking midfielders are taken early.
Example, Dustin Martin at pick 3 is the second highest scoring player from the 09 draft behind Gunston.
But none of them have kicked 500 goals. Dusty is just shy of 300 goals. I’ll attempt to join to height data and remove the obvious mids and small forwards and redo the charts when I get a chance.
 

Brishawk

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I agree, unless they have a really outstanding trait. The King brothers are obviously worth the punt early because they ran under 3 second 20m sprint times, which is truly outstanding.



It wasn't intentional. It was more a point that key forwards highly rated based on output in the U18 contests are rarely going to be the best forwards, for example Schache, Boyd, Patton who were selected early based on being 3 of the best goal scorers in the history of the U18 carnival despite being relatively one dimensional.

It was more that its statistically a bad idea take the risk on using a top 3 pick for a key forward.

90% of the best forwards have been taken somewhere between 5 and 15.
Half the players drafted since 2000 that have managed 500 goals have come in the top 5. So I don’t think your 90% stat is a true reflection of where the very best forwards are taken. The years in which the best forwards go later in the draft are likely because a top talent flopped at AFL level. Great forwards just aren’t that common that you can simply expect them every year.
 

rogiebear93

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But none of them have kicked 500 goals. Dusty is just shy of 300 goals. I’ll attempt to join to height data and remove the obvious mids and small forwards and redo the charts when I get a chance.
Yeah, good work though - 200 might just be a smidge too low. Take the 2008 draft for example, first round was full of KPFs and of the 4 players to kick over 200, only Tom Lynch (Saints and Adelaide) is over 190cm and he barely qualifies.

Half the players drafted since 2000 that have managed 500 goals have come in the top 5. So I don’t think your 90% stat is a true reflection of where the very best forwards are taken. The years in which the best forwards go later in the draft are likely because a top talent flopped at AFL level. Great forwards just aren’t that common that you can simply expect them every year.
Yeah that's my bad, I was going based only on my memory of the picks and I thought Josh Kennedy was a pick 5. Worth remembering that total goals is probably an unfair cut off as well as you're omitting a lot of more recent draftees and including a lot of long serving midfielders. Average goals per game would be better.
 

tommyk72

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Lethal wasn’t drafted so he is out already. 😉

I’ll need to merge the draft data with the player height data and go from there. It will thin the herd. Might do it tomorrow night or over the weekend. Problem is the player names are written differently on every bloody site so makes it hard to join them.
Touche :)

Also, forgot to say first up that this is great analysis. Love your work Brishawk.
 

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tommyk72

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But none of them have kicked 500 goals. Dusty is just shy of 300 goals. I’ll attempt to join to height data and remove the obvious mids and small forwards and redo the charts when I get a chance.
I reckon upping it to 250 from your current 200 is required to thin the herd. I did an eye scan of this table here and the vast majority between 200-250 goals are not KPFs: https://afltables.com/afl/stats/alltime/careergoals.html

The other challenge is that you've also got your small forwards in there, as well as your goal kicking midfielders. The player heights would be great, but my guess is that even that would now be skewed, as so many midfielders these days are bigger than the KPFs from back in the day!
 

Alite

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Great info and graphs. Love the set up and topic. What is missed in this analysis of the modern Tall Fwd, …. and I do not think it can be shown, … is the ability to bring the ball to ground. Or, being put another way, to stop the backmen from intercepting the ball (read: while I like him a lot, Jeka has some work to do). Kozie is the quintessential backman‘s forward. His “starving for a muffin” attack on the ball does not end in him eating that muffin, but the smalls fwd’s feast at his feat.
 

Brishawk

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Is this isolated to KPF though? How often are the best players ever taken in the top 5
Off of the top of my head, nick riewoldt, roughy, buddy, pav and josh Kennedy were all taken in the top five of the draft. Jeremy Cameron didn’t go through the draft but I’m sure would have been taken at the top end. He was incredible from day one. Jack Riewoldt was taken at around 11 I think. Hawkins was father son. That pretty much covers the top kpf drafted in the last 20 years in terms of best of the best. It is a bit early to judge some of the current generation against them and that doesn’t mean you can’t find a decent kpf elsewhere in the draft but the absolute elite have come from the top or not being available in the general draft pool.
 

threesixpio

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For anyone who is interested, these charts are based on the whole history of the draft. This shows where players who have kicked more than 200 goals were drafted.

View attachment 1230794
Count of players to kick over 200 goals by draft pick range.
View attachment 1230806

This is a heat map of players chosen in each draft range and goals kicked.
View attachment 1230805
Basically, plenty if star goal kickers picked all through the draft but top 5 still your best shot at it. 6-10 looks like a bit of a death zone. Top 20 is generally solid though and your chances diminish as you pick gets bigger. Note also that there is a bunch chaos at the beginning of the draft.

From 2000 onwards:
View attachment 1230810

View attachment 1230809
View attachment 1230811

EDIT: does not include rookie draft.
Great thread rogiebear93 !!

Lore - I imagine these graphs from Brishawk would be pretty useful in the Trade/Draft forum. Not sure how they would get in there though
 

threesixpio

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For anyone who is interested, these charts are based on the whole history of the draft. This shows where players who have kicked more than 200 goals were drafted.

View attachment 1230794
Count of players to kick over 200 goals by draft pick range.
View attachment 1230806

This is a heat map of players chosen in each draft range and goals kicked.
View attachment 1230805
Basically, plenty if star goal kickers picked all through the draft but top 5 still your best shot at it. 6-10 looks like a bit of a death zone. Top 20 is generally solid though and your chances diminish as you pick gets bigger. Note also that there is a bunch chaos at the beginning of the draft.

From 2000 onwards:
View attachment 1230810

View attachment 1230809
View attachment 1230811

EDIT: does not include rookie draft.
PS I can see you Buddy (!) in your lonesome blue rectangle. He he
 

Blackhawk42

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I still reckon if Gibcus is there, we're a chance at taking him. Sam will want the most elite talent at that pick.
I don't personally believe he is a top 10 pick this year. The GWS recruiter mentioned him publically which upped his perceived value IMO. We'd be crazy not to take a midfielder. You could throw a blanket over about 5 who would be best available at our selection.
 

TylerDurden

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I don't personally believe he is a top 10 pick this year. The GWS recruiter mentioned him publically which upped his perceived value IMO. We'd be crazy not to take a midfielder. You could throw a blanket over about 5 who would be best available at our selection.
Agree, but if we see Gibcus as the best talent available, we will take him.
 

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