Bang for buck draft picks

[triangulation_squared]

Jai Newcombe, mid season rookie...

Dane Swan - 58

Gary Ablett Sr - drafted straight out of Myrtleford

Paul Puopolo - 66

Taylor Walker - 75, echoes of Mitch Lewis at 76

 

[Agent Smith]

didn't Carltank give him a car as well to sign the original form?

And he enthusiastically waved to them in the rear view mirror as he happily drove it to Glenferrie Oval.

 

[The Chad and I]

16. Pick 78 – Richie Vandenberg

with all due respect to Richie's contribution to the club, his abilities were about a pick 78, but his character, effort, and application were elite.

 

[Scrads]

Jai Newcombe, mid season rookie...

Dane Swan - 58

Gary Ablett Sr - drafted straight out of Myrtleford

Paul Puopolo - 66

Taylor Walker - 75, echoes of Mitch Lewis at 76

Taylor Walker was some sort of NSW Academy type pick where it was pre-assigned before the draft (a bit like the old rookie elevations).

 

[grumbleguts]

Taylor Walker - 75, echoes of Mitch Lewis at 76

Now with 25% more racism.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

I overlooked this thread. It's worth taking a look at the average career length based on the round in which the player has been drafted. Fortunately, DraftGuru has already done the work for me:

Draft	Pick range	Players picked	Average age	Career games average	Club games average	Brownlow votes average	Average years to play a 20 game season	Average years to play 50+ games
National	Pick 1	19	17.9	227.7	168.3	57.6	2.6	3.6
National	Pick 2	19	17.9	197.5	159.3	41.8	3.0	3.8
National	Picks 3-5	57	18.2	164.8	119.9	39.4	4.3	5.4
National	Picks 6-10	95	18.2	128.3	93.6	18.4	6.8	6.8
National	Picks 11-20	190	18.1	120.3	93.0	17.0	7.2	7.1
National	Picks 21-30	189	18.4	85.8	63.5	9.2	8.0	8.1
National	Picks 31-50	376	18.9	79.3	61.9	10.5	8.3	8.3
National	Picks 51-70	324	19.5	47.6	38.1	4.4	9.2	9.4
National	Picks 70+	163	20.0	40.4	33.8	2.8	9.0	9.0
Rookie	Picks 1-10	146	19.6	46.7	33.5	4.0	9.5	9.8
Rookie	Picks 11-30	278	19.6	36.9	28.1	2.6	10.5	10.3
Rookie	Picks 31-50	219	19.7	34.5	26.3	3.5	10.2	10.5
Rookie	Picks 50+	206	19.6	22.7	16.0	1.4	10.9	11.0

Unsurprisingly, this table demonstrates that the later the pick in either the national or the rookie draft, the less games the selected player will play and the longer it takes a player picked in a certain tier to play 50+ games. This allows one to find the outliers who have succeeded despite the odds being stacked against them (based on draft position).

It should be noted that the table does get skewed slightly because of things such as zone selections (e.g., Harry Cunningham was a NSW zone selection of the Swans back in 2011 and he played 161 games for the Swans).

Probably the biggest outlier of them all is Chris Grant, who was selected with pick 105 in the 1988 national draft by Footscray and went on to play 341 games, kick 554 goals, and miss out on a Brownlow medal.

Matt Suckling is also a candidate for an outlier award. He was selected by the Hawks with the 81st pick in the 2009 rookie draft and went on to play 102 games for Hawthorn (and 178 career games, including his time with the Western Bulldogs), winning premierships in 2014 and 2015. However, this is misleading, since Hawthorn first drafted Suckling with the 22nd pick in the 2007 rookie draft and in order to comply with rookie listing rules in place at the time, delisted Suckling after two seasons then re-drafted him in the rookie draft.

Carlton selected Zach Tuohy with the 73rd pick in the 2009 rookie draft (as an international selection) and he's played 250 games, including 130 games for Geelong, winning the premiership with the Cats in 2022. Carlton also drafted Sam Jacobs with the 76th pick in the 2008. This cheats a little bit, because he was first drafted by Carlton with the first pick of the 2007 rookie draft and to comply with the rules regarding retaining rookie selections for two years, Carlton delisted him and then re-rookied him. Jacobs only played 17 games for Carlton, but then went on to play 184 games with the Crows (including the 2017 grand final loss to Richmond) before finishing his career with the Giants.

There are a couple of stand-outs from the 2006 rookie draft (that followed the 2005 national draft). At pick 34 in the rookie draft, Hawthorn selected former Port Adelaide defender, Stephen Gilham, who went on to play in the 2008 premiership a few years later. Gilham played 98 games for Hawthorn before being traded to the Giants at the end of 2012.

In the same draft, Hawthorn selected Ben McGlynn with the 55th pick in the rookie draft. McGlynn played 44 games for Hawthorn from 2006 to 2009, and was then traded to Sydney as part of the Josh Kennedy trade (in which Hawthorn landed the picks to draft Ben Stratton). McGlynn was a premiership player for the Swans in 2012, and also played in their loss to Hawthorn in 2014, playing 127 games for the Swans between 2010 and 2016.

The Swans found their own diamond in the rough in the 2006 rookie draft, selecting Kieren Jack with the 58th pick in the rookie draft. Jack played 256 games for the Swans, was All-Australian in 2013 and a premiership player in 2012.

The following year, with the same pick (e.g., the 58th pick in the 2007 rookie draft), St Kilda selected Jarryn Geary, who has played 207 games for St Kilda.

Another outlier is James Podsiadly. He was first drafted by the Bombers with the 58th pick in the rookie draft of 1999, but never played for Essendon. He was delisted by Essendon and then selected by Collingwood with the 8th pick in the 2002 rookie draft. Again, he never played a game for the Pies and was delisted after one season. After kicking bags of goals for Werribee in the VFL, and winning the J.J. Liston trophy in 2008, the Cats gave him one last shot, picking him with the 50th pick in the 2010 rookie draft. Podsiadly repaid the faith, playing 83 games for Geelong between 2010 and 2014, kicking 169 goals and helping Geelong win the premiership in 2011.

 

[TheFourPillars]

I overlooked this thread. It's worth taking a look at the average career length based on the round in which the player has been drafted. Fortunately, DraftGuru has already done the work for me:

Draft	Pick range	Players picked	Average age	Career games average	Club games average	Brownlow votes average	Average years to play a 20 game season	Average years to play 50+ games
National	Pick 1	19	17.9	227.7	168.3	57.6	2.6	3.6
National	Pick 2	19	17.9	197.5	159.3	41.8	3.0	3.8
National	Picks 3-5	57	18.2	164.8	119.9	39.4	4.3	5.4
National	Picks 6-10	95	18.2	128.3	93.6	18.4	6.8	6.8
National	Picks 11-20	190	18.1	120.3	93.0	17.0	7.2	7.1
National	Picks 21-30	189	18.4	85.8	63.5	9.2	8.0	8.1
National	Picks 31-50	376	18.9	79.3	61.9	10.5	8.3	8.3
National	Picks 51-70	324	19.5	47.6	38.1	4.4	9.2	9.4
National	Picks 70+	163	20.0	40.4	33.8	2.8	9.0	9.0
Rookie	Picks 1-10	146	19.6	46.7	33.5	4.0	9.5	9.8
Rookie	Picks 11-30	278	19.6	36.9	28.1	2.6	10.5	10.3
Rookie	Picks 31-50	219	19.7	34.5	26.3	3.5	10.2	10.5
Rookie	Picks 50+	206	19.6	22.7	16.0	1.4	10.9	11.0

Unsurprisingly, this table demonstrates that the later the pick in either the national or the rookie draft, the less games the selected player will play and the longer it takes a player picked in a certain tier to play 50+ games. This allows one to find the outliers who have succeeded despite the odds being stacked against them (based on draft position).

It should be noted that the table does get skewed slightly because of things such as zone selections (e.g., Harry Cunningham was a NSW zone selection of the Swans back in 2011 and he played 161 games for the Swans).

Probably the biggest outlier of them all is Chris Grant, who was selected with pick 105 in the 1988 national draft by Footscray and went on to play 341 games, kick 554 goals, and miss out on a Brownlow medal.

Matt Suckling is also a candidate for an outlier award. He was selected by the Hawks with the 81st pick in the 2009 rookie draft and went on to play 102 games for Hawthorn (and 178 career games, including his time with the Western Bulldogs), winning premierships in 2014 and 2015. However, this is misleading, since Hawthorn first drafted Suckling with the 22nd pick in the 2007 rookie draft and in order to comply with rookie listing rules in place at the time, delisted Suckling after two seasons then re-drafted him in the rookie draft.

Carlton selected Zach Tuohy with the 73rd pick in the 2009 rookie draft (as an international selection) and he's played 250 games, including 130 games for Geelong, winning the premiership with the Cats in 2022. Carlton also drafted Sam Jacobs with the 76th pick in the 2008. This cheats a little bit, because he was first drafted by Carlton with the first pick of the 2007 rookie draft and to comply with the rules regarding retaining rookie selections for two years, Carlton delisted him and then re-rookied him. Jacobs only played 17 games for Carlton, but then went on to play 184 games with the Crows (including the 2017 grand final loss to Richmond) before finishing his career with the Giants.

There are a couple of stand-outs from the 2006 rookie draft (that followed the 2005 national draft). At pick 34 in the rookie draft, Hawthorn selected former Port Adelaide defender, Stephen Gilham, who went on to play in the 2008 premiership a few years later. Gilham played 98 games for Hawthorn before being traded to the Giants at the end of 2012.

In the same draft, Hawthorn selected Ben McGlynn with the 55th pick in the rookie draft. McGlynn played 44 games for Hawthorn from 2006 to 2009, and was then traded to Sydney as part of the Josh Kennedy trade (in which Hawthorn landed the picks to draft Ben Stratton). McGlynn was a premiership player for the Swans in 2012, and also played in their loss to Hawthorn in 2014, playing 127 games for the Swans between 2010 and 2016.

The Swans found their own diamond in the rough in the 2006 rookie draft, selecting Kieren Jack with the 58th pick in the rookie draft. Jack played 256 games for the Swans, was All-Australian in 2013 and a premiership player in 2012.

The following year, with the same pick (e.g., the 58th pick in the 2007 rookie draft), St Kilda selected Jarryn Geary, who has played 207 games for St Kilda.

Another outlier is James Podsiadly. He was first drafted by the Bombers with the 58th pick in the rookie draft of 1999, but never played for Essendon. He was delisted by Essendon and then selected by Collingwood with the 8th pick in the 2002 rookie draft. Again, he never played a game for the Pies and was delisted after one season. After kicking bags of goals for Werribee in the VFL, and winning the J.J. Liston trophy in 2008, the Cats gave him one last shot, picking him with the 50th pick in the 2010 rookie draft. Podsiadly repaid the faith, playing 83 games for Geelong between 2010 and 2014, kicking 169 goals and helping Geelong win the premiership in 2011.

Great stuff Dixy

 

[play2win]

I overlooked this thread. It's worth taking a look at the average career length based on the round in which the player has been drafted. Fortunately, DraftGuru has already done the work for me:

Draft	Pick range	Players picked	Average age	Career games average	Club games average	Brownlow votes average	Average years to play a 20 game season	Average years to play 50+ games
National	Pick 1	19	17.9	227.7	168.3	57.6	2.6	3.6
National	Pick 2	19	17.9	197.5	159.3	41.8	3.0	3.8
National	Picks 3-5	57	18.2	164.8	119.9	39.4	4.3	5.4
National	Picks 6-10	95	18.2	128.3	93.6	18.4	6.8	6.8
National	Picks 11-20	190	18.1	120.3	93.0	17.0	7.2	7.1
National	Picks 21-30	189	18.4	85.8	63.5	9.2	8.0	8.1
National	Picks 31-50	376	18.9	79.3	61.9	10.5	8.3	8.3
National	Picks 51-70	324	19.5	47.6	38.1	4.4	9.2	9.4
National	Picks 70+	163	20.0	40.4	33.8	2.8	9.0	9.0
Rookie	Picks 1-10	146	19.6	46.7	33.5	4.0	9.5	9.8
Rookie	Picks 11-30	278	19.6	36.9	28.1	2.6	10.5	10.3
Rookie	Picks 31-50	219	19.7	34.5	26.3	3.5	10.2	10.5
Rookie	Picks 50+	206	19.6	22.7	16.0	1.4	10.9	11.0

Unsurprisingly, this table demonstrates that the later the pick in either the national or the rookie draft, the less games the selected player will play and the longer it takes a player picked in a certain tier to play 50+ games. This allows one to find the outliers who have succeeded despite the odds being stacked against them (based on draft position).

It should be noted that the table does get skewed slightly because of things such as zone selections (e.g., Harry Cunningham was a NSW zone selection of the Swans back in 2011 and he played 161 games for the Swans).

Probably the biggest outlier of them all is Chris Grant, who was selected with pick 105 in the 1988 national draft by Footscray and went on to play 341 games, kick 554 goals, and miss out on a Brownlow medal.

Matt Suckling is also a candidate for an outlier award. He was selected by the Hawks with the 81st pick in the 2009 rookie draft and went on to play 102 games for Hawthorn (and 178 career games, including his time with the Western Bulldogs), winning premierships in 2014 and 2015. However, this is misleading, since Hawthorn first drafted Suckling with the 22nd pick in the 2007 rookie draft and in order to comply with rookie listing rules in place at the time, delisted Suckling after two seasons then re-drafted him in the rookie draft.

Carlton selected Zach Tuohy with the 73rd pick in the 2009 rookie draft (as an international selection) and he's played 250 games, including 130 games for Geelong, winning the premiership with the Cats in 2022. Carlton also drafted Sam Jacobs with the 76th pick in the 2008. This cheats a little bit, because he was first drafted by Carlton with the first pick of the 2007 rookie draft and to comply with the rules regarding retaining rookie selections for two years, Carlton delisted him and then re-rookied him. Jacobs only played 17 games for Carlton, but then went on to play 184 games with the Crows (including the 2017 grand final loss to Richmond) before finishing his career with the Giants.

There are a couple of stand-outs from the 2006 rookie draft (that followed the 2005 national draft). At pick 34 in the rookie draft, Hawthorn selected former Port Adelaide defender, Stephen Gilham, who went on to play in the 2008 premiership a few years later. Gilham played 98 games for Hawthorn before being traded to the Giants at the end of 2012.

In the same draft, Hawthorn selected Ben McGlynn with the 55th pick in the rookie draft. McGlynn played 44 games for Hawthorn from 2006 to 2009, and was then traded to Sydney as part of the Josh Kennedy trade (in which Hawthorn landed the picks to draft Ben Stratton). McGlynn was a premiership player for the Swans in 2012, and also played in their loss to Hawthorn in 2014, playing 127 games for the Swans between 2010 and 2016.

The Swans found their own diamond in the rough in the 2006 rookie draft, selecting Kieren Jack with the 58th pick in the rookie draft. Jack played 256 games for the Swans, was All-Australian in 2013 and a premiership player in 2012.

The following year, with the same pick (e.g., the 58th pick in the 2007 rookie draft), St Kilda selected Jarryn Geary, who has played 207 games for St Kilda.

Another outlier is James Podsiadly. He was first drafted by the Bombers with the 58th pick in the rookie draft of 1999, but never played for Essendon. He was delisted by Essendon and then selected by Collingwood with the 8th pick in the 2002 rookie draft. Again, he never played a game for the Pies and was delisted after one season. After kicking bags of goals for Werribee in the VFL, and winning the J.J. Liston trophy in 2008, the Cats gave him one last shot, picking him with the 50th pick in the 2010 rookie draft. Podsiadly repaid the faith, playing 83 games for Geelong between 2010 and 2014, kicking 169 goals and helping Geelong win the premiership in 2011.

Just going off memory here so not 100% sure, but mcglynn didn’t play in the swans 2012 flag, I think he did a hammie in previous week(s)

 

[Dixie Flatline]

Just going off memory here so not 100% sure, but mcglynn didn’t play in the swans 2012 flag, I think he did a hammie in previous week(s)

You're correct.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Now we can finally put to bed the fallacy that early picks don't matter.

 

[Symons]

McGlynn was a premiership player for the Swans in 2012, and also played in their loss to Hawthorn in 2014, playing 127 games for the Swans between 2010 and 2016.

It's a great post (thank you) - but a small correction: McGlynn didn't become a premiership player. He was a fixture of their team in 2012 but he sustained a hamstring injury in finals and didn't play.

He did play in the losses in 2014 and 2016.

Edit: Oh, beaten, should've refreshed the tab before posting!

 

[Yuley95]

I overlooked this thread. It's worth taking a look at the average career length based on the round in which the player has been drafted. Fortunately, DraftGuru has already done the work for me:

Draft	Pick range	Players picked	Average age	Career games average	Club games average	Brownlow votes average	Average years to play a 20 game season	Average years to play 50+ games
National	Pick 1	19	17.9	227.7	168.3	57.6	2.6	3.6
National	Pick 2	19	17.9	197.5	159.3	41.8	3.0	3.8
National	Picks 3-5	57	18.2	164.8	119.9	39.4	4.3	5.4
National	Picks 6-10	95	18.2	128.3	93.6	18.4	6.8	6.8
National	Picks 11-20	190	18.1	120.3	93.0	17.0	7.2	7.1
National	Picks 21-30	189	18.4	85.8	63.5	9.2	8.0	8.1
National	Picks 31-50	376	18.9	79.3	61.9	10.5	8.3	8.3
National	Picks 51-70	324	19.5	47.6	38.1	4.4	9.2	9.4
National	Picks 70+	163	20.0	40.4	33.8	2.8	9.0	9.0
Rookie	Picks 1-10	146	19.6	46.7	33.5	4.0	9.5	9.8
Rookie	Picks 11-30	278	19.6	36.9	28.1	2.6	10.5	10.3
Rookie	Picks 31-50	219	19.7	34.5	26.3	3.5	10.2	10.5
Rookie	Picks 50+	206	19.6	22.7	16.0	1.4	10.9	11.0

Unsurprisingly, this table demonstrates that the later the pick in either the national or the rookie draft, the less games the selected player will play and the longer it takes a player picked in a certain tier to play 50+ games. This allows one to find the outliers who have succeeded despite the odds being stacked against them (based on draft position).

It should be noted that the table does get skewed slightly because of things such as zone selections (e.g., Harry Cunningham was a NSW zone selection of the Swans back in 2011 and he played 161 games for the Swans).

Probably the biggest outlier of them all is Chris Grant, who was selected with pick 105 in the 1988 national draft by Footscray and went on to play 341 games, kick 554 goals, and miss out on a Brownlow medal.

Matt Suckling is also a candidate for an outlier award. He was selected by the Hawks with the 81st pick in the 2009 rookie draft and went on to play 102 games for Hawthorn (and 178 career games, including his time with the Western Bulldogs), winning premierships in 2014 and 2015. However, this is misleading, since Hawthorn first drafted Suckling with the 22nd pick in the 2007 rookie draft and in order to comply with rookie listing rules in place at the time, delisted Suckling after two seasons then re-drafted him in the rookie draft.

Carlton selected Zach Tuohy with the 73rd pick in the 2009 rookie draft (as an international selection) and he's played 250 games, including 130 games for Geelong, winning the premiership with the Cats in 2022. Carlton also drafted Sam Jacobs with the 76th pick in the 2008. This cheats a little bit, because he was first drafted by Carlton with the first pick of the 2007 rookie draft and to comply with the rules regarding retaining rookie selections for two years, Carlton delisted him and then re-rookied him. Jacobs only played 17 games for Carlton, but then went on to play 184 games with the Crows (including the 2017 grand final loss to Richmond) before finishing his career with the Giants.

There are a couple of stand-outs from the 2006 rookie draft (that followed the 2005 national draft). At pick 34 in the rookie draft, Hawthorn selected former Port Adelaide defender, Stephen Gilham, who went on to play in the 2008 premiership a few years later. Gilham played 98 games for Hawthorn before being traded to the Giants at the end of 2012.

In the same draft, Hawthorn selected Ben McGlynn with the 55th pick in the rookie draft. McGlynn played 44 games for Hawthorn from 2006 to 2009, and was then traded to Sydney as part of the Josh Kennedy trade (in which Hawthorn landed the picks to draft Ben Stratton). McGlynn was a premiership player for the Swans in 2012, and also played in their loss to Hawthorn in 2014, playing 127 games for the Swans between 2010 and 2016.

The Swans found their own diamond in the rough in the 2006 rookie draft, selecting Kieren Jack with the 58th pick in the rookie draft. Jack played 256 games for the Swans, was All-Australian in 2013 and a premiership player in 2012.

The following year, with the same pick (e.g., the 58th pick in the 2007 rookie draft), St Kilda selected Jarryn Geary, who has played 207 games for St Kilda.

Another outlier is James Podsiadly. He was first drafted by the Bombers with the 58th pick in the rookie draft of 1999, but never played for Essendon. He was delisted by Essendon and then selected by Collingwood with the 8th pick in the 2002 rookie draft. Again, he never played a game for the Pies and was delisted after one season. After kicking bags of goals for Werribee in the VFL, and winning the J.J. Liston trophy in 2008, the Cats gave him one last shot, picking him with the 50th pick in the 2010 rookie draft. Podsiadly repaid the faith, playing 83 games for Geelong between 2010 and 2014, kicking 169 goals and helping Geelong win the premiership in 2011.

That Pods story is amazing. The bloke had heart and resilience that's for sure.

 

[grumbleguts]

I overlooked this thread. It's worth taking a look at the average career length based on the round in which the player has been drafted. Fortunately, DraftGuru has already done the work for me:

Draft	Pick range	Players picked	Average age	Career games average	Club games average	Brownlow votes average	Average years to play a 20 game season	Average years to play 50+ games
National	Pick 1	19	17.9	227.7	168.3	57.6	2.6	3.6
National	Pick 2	19	17.9	197.5	159.3	41.8	3.0	3.8
National	Picks 3-5	57	18.2	164.8	119.9	39.4	4.3	5.4
National	Picks 6-10	95	18.2	128.3	93.6	18.4	6.8	6.8
National	Picks 11-20	190	18.1	120.3	93.0	17.0	7.2	7.1
National	Picks 21-30	189	18.4	85.8	63.5	9.2	8.0	8.1
National	Picks 31-50	376	18.9	79.3	61.9	10.5	8.3	8.3
National	Picks 51-70	324	19.5	47.6	38.1	4.4	9.2	9.4
National	Picks 70+	163	20.0	40.4	33.8	2.8	9.0	9.0
Rookie	Picks 1-10	146	19.6	46.7	33.5	4.0	9.5	9.8
Rookie	Picks 11-30	278	19.6	36.9	28.1	2.6	10.5	10.3
Rookie	Picks 31-50	219	19.7	34.5	26.3	3.5	10.2	10.5
Rookie	Picks 50+	206	19.6	22.7	16.0	1.4	10.9	11.0

Unsurprisingly, this table demonstrates that the later the pick in either the national or the rookie draft, the less games the selected player will play and the longer it takes a player picked in a certain tier to play 50+ games. This allows one to find the outliers who have succeeded despite the odds being stacked against them (based on draft position).

It should be noted that the table does get skewed slightly because of things such as zone selections (e.g., Harry Cunningham was a NSW zone selection of the Swans back in 2011 and he played 161 games for the Swans).

Probably the biggest outlier of them all is Chris Grant, who was selected with pick 105 in the 1988 national draft by Footscray and went on to play 341 games, kick 554 goals, and miss out on a Brownlow medal.

Matt Suckling is also a candidate for an outlier award. He was selected by the Hawks with the 81st pick in the 2009 rookie draft and went on to play 102 games for Hawthorn (and 178 career games, including his time with the Western Bulldogs), winning premierships in 2014 and 2015. However, this is misleading, since Hawthorn first drafted Suckling with the 22nd pick in the 2007 rookie draft and in order to comply with rookie listing rules in place at the time, delisted Suckling after two seasons then re-drafted him in the rookie draft.

Carlton selected Zach Tuohy with the 73rd pick in the 2009 rookie draft (as an international selection) and he's played 250 games, including 130 games for Geelong, winning the premiership with the Cats in 2022. Carlton also drafted Sam Jacobs with the 76th pick in the 2008. This cheats a little bit, because he was first drafted by Carlton with the first pick of the 2007 rookie draft and to comply with the rules regarding retaining rookie selections for two years, Carlton delisted him and then re-rookied him. Jacobs only played 17 games for Carlton, but then went on to play 184 games with the Crows (including the 2017 grand final loss to Richmond) before finishing his career with the Giants.

There are a couple of stand-outs from the 2006 rookie draft (that followed the 2005 national draft). At pick 34 in the rookie draft, Hawthorn selected former Port Adelaide defender, Stephen Gilham, who went on to play in the 2008 premiership a few years later. Gilham played 98 games for Hawthorn before being traded to the Giants at the end of 2012.

In the same draft, Hawthorn selected Ben McGlynn with the 55th pick in the rookie draft. McGlynn played 44 games for Hawthorn from 2006 to 2009, and was then traded to Sydney as part of the Josh Kennedy trade (in which Hawthorn landed the picks to draft Ben Stratton). McGlynn was a premiership player for the Swans in 2012, and also played in their loss to Hawthorn in 2014, playing 127 games for the Swans between 2010 and 2016.

The Swans found their own diamond in the rough in the 2006 rookie draft, selecting Kieren Jack with the 58th pick in the rookie draft. Jack played 256 games for the Swans, was All-Australian in 2013 and a premiership player in 2012.

The following year, with the same pick (e.g., the 58th pick in the 2007 rookie draft), St Kilda selected Jarryn Geary, who has played 207 games for St Kilda.

Another outlier is James Podsiadly. He was first drafted by the Bombers with the 58th pick in the rookie draft of 1999, but never played for Essendon. He was delisted by Essendon and then selected by Collingwood with the 8th pick in the 2002 rookie draft. Again, he never played a game for the Pies and was delisted after one season. After kicking bags of goals for Werribee in the VFL, and winning the J.J. Liston trophy in 2008, the Cats gave him one last shot, picking him with the 50th pick in the 2010 rookie draft. Podsiadly repaid the faith, playing 83 games for Geelong between 2010 and 2014, kicking 169 goals and helping Geelong win the premiership in 2011.

Superb post.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I have to wonder if the games played average of higher draft picks is not impacted by the fact the players wouldn’t get so many games to prove their worth, were they taken later in the draft.

Richard Tambling for example. If he was a Pick 25, would he have been given so many opportunities to find his form? I think I know the answer to that. Clubs are stubborn and can often try very hard to redeem themselves for bad selections.
Josh Schache is another that comes to mind.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

I have to wonder if the games played average of higher draft picks is not impacted by the fact the players wouldn’t get so many games to prove their worth, were they taken later in the draft.

Richard Tambling for example. If he was a Pick 25, would he have been given so many opportunities to find his form? I think I know the answer to that. Clubs are stubborn and can often try very hard to redeem themselves for bad selections.
Josh Schache is another that comes to mind.

Makes you wonder just how bad Mitch Thorp actually was that we only gave a pick 6 two games!

I don't want to stir s..t either but would we have given DGB as many games as he has had so far if he had been a pick 36 instead of a pick 6? I'd argue not based on his exposed form (not saying he won't make it but he has definetly been gifted quite a few games).

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Makes you wonder just how bad Mitch Thorp actually was that we only gave a pick 6 two games!

I don't want to stir s..t either but would we have given DGB as many games as he has had so far if he had been a pick 36 instead of a pick 6? I'd argue not based on his exposed form (not saying he won't make it but he has definetly been gifted quite a few games).

I cannot fathom the amount of posters that have queried DGB, who is learning one of the toughest roles on the field(KPP that must also intercept and lock onto an opponent at moments notice). His output, and certainly his temperament for a youngster in his role is where it needs to be, and is not at all similar to Thorp or Schache who both weren’t right above the shoulders.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

I cannot fathom the amount of posters that have queried DGB, who is learning one of the toughest roles on the field(KPP that must also intercept and lock onto an opponent at moments notice). His output, and certainly his temperament for a youngster in his role is where it needs to be, and is not at all similar to Thorp or Schache who both weren’t right above the shoulders.

I'm basing this on observing him on the field.

He wasn't AFL level for either fitness or strength the last two years yet we played him regardless. Given our list position it didn't really matter since we weren't making finals anyway but I can't believe we would have done the same if he had been a speculative second rounder. On form alone he hasn't deserved the amount of games he has played, that's pretty evident.

I compare DGB to Blank who we picked up in the MSD. Blank didn't exactly set the world on fire last year but he at least looked capable and able to match it with AFL forwards at a physical level.

Blank has had to earn his games on output alone, not based on being a top ten pick.

 

[KermitJagger]

I'm basing this on observing him on the field.

He wasn't AFL level for either fitness or strength the last two years yet we played him regardless. Given our list position it didn't really matter since we weren't making finals anyway but I can't believe we would have done the same if he had been a speculative second rounder. On form alone he hasn't deserved the amount of games he has played, that's pretty evident.

I compare DGB to Blank who we picked up in the MSD. Blank didn't exactly set the world on fire last year but he at least looked capable and able to match it with AFL forwards at a physical level.

Blank has had to earn his games on output alone, not based on being a top ten pick.

Blanck is older and more physically developed than DGB.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

On form alone he hasn't deserved the amount of games he has played, that's pretty evident.

I simply cannot agree with this.

Everyone gushed over his debut game. He’s showed the same tenacity in every game he’s played when the ball is there to be won, while trying to negate his somewhat kamikaze flair for the bettterment of the team.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

Blanck is older and more physically developed than DGB.

That's true.

But look at it this way.

Blank is being played because his current ability/fitness level/physical build means he can play as an AFL key position defender.

Whereas DGB is being played on the assumption that he will develop the ability/fitness level/physical build to become an AFL key position defender.

And a large part of that assumption comes from the fact he was pick 6 not pick 36.

Again I am not saying DGB won't eventually make it (he did start to show some signs last year on occasion) but it goes to SYL's point that high draft picks get a lot more opportunities to prove themselves.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

I simply cannot agree with this.

Everyone gushed over his debut game. He’s showed the same tenacity in every game he’s played when the ball is there to be won, while trying to negate his somewhat kamikaze flair for the bettterment of the team.

I agree DGB does have tenacity but you won't make a career in the AFL out of just being tenacious.

There aren't many (any?) pure lockdown backmen these days, you need to have an attacking edge to your game as well (Sicily being the exemplar example of the key back who can both defend and attack equally well).

In saying that I did see some brief flashes from DGB last year where he took a couple of intercept marks (which from what I understand was his main strength in the SANFL).

Definetly a big year for DGB in 2023, he needs to play more of those games where we see his ability come through.

 

[grumbleguts]

That's true.

But look at it this way.

Blank is being played because his current ability/fitness level/physical build means he can play as an AFL key position defender.

Whereas DGB is being played on the assumption that he will develop the ability/fitness level/physical build to become an AFL key position defender.

And a large part of that assumption comes from the fact he was pick 6 not pick 36.

Again I am not saying DGB won't eventually make it (he did start to show some signs last year on occasion) but it goes to SYL's point that high draft picks get a lot more opportunities to prove themselves.

His rebound is elite. How do you think he is going to match it with monster backs being a stick figure if he doesn't build the two things he needs to do so, bulk and experience. The bulk he can build off the field. The experience...

 

[Simon Crawshay]

His rebound is elite. How do you think he is going to match it with monster backs being a stick figure if he doesn't build the two things he needs to do so, bulk and experience. The bulk he can build off the field. The experience...

I'm not sure I would put DGBs rebounding ability up with CJs (or even Scrimshaws or Sicily's).

He's only averaging 8 possessions a game so it's not like he is getting enough of the ball to be a high possession rebound defender.

That's my main query in DGB. What position will he end up playing? I can't see him ever having the build to be a Weitering/May KPD and he is probably the worst runner on our list which makes me query whether he can make it as a pure rebound defender.

He needs a massive pre season to build both his strength and fitness.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I agree DGB does have tenacity but you won't make a career in the AFL out of just being tenacious.

He's got tenacity, skill, flair and courage.

I find it completely odd that people can't see it.

 

[TheFourPillars]

Fitness is what is holding DGB back. Other teams exploited this weakness last year by just running him up the ground. This is a real problem at present as we are still playing man on man in general play. Team defence will help him as he can just roll off and not follow his opponent up the ground. He still has all the tools, and I am still backing him in to be a star for us