The Crows Soft Draw

[Big Sledge #32]

Sigh - this is not an Essendon thread but I will try and explain it for the intellectual giants out there. They are currently rated a $2.05 chance to make the 8 which means that the people that matter (not BF nuffies) obviously think they are a big chance to be a finalist this year. They are the 9th highest ranked side according to betting agencies with the next best (Melbourne) rated a fair way off them.

Of the top 9 sides currently in betting - Adelaide only play 2 of them twice (obviously excluding themselves).

I hope thats clear for everyone. Realise that maths isn't a subject that many schools treat seriously these days.

If you like, I will do a matrix up later which will explain it a bit more clearly.

My point was when the AFL made their draw Essendon were a bottom 4 team & Adelaide was a bottom 8 team (2010). So for their planning purposes in 2011 they probably weren't planning on either team making the 8. So when you put on the list of top 8 teams from last year that we only play once then take Essendon off of that list. It just happens that both teams are improving to the point where they might challenge for the 8.

I am not denying it isn't a particularly fortunate draw, I'm just saying it isn't the cakewalk you think it's going to be. It isn't as hard as some other teams and it gives us the capacity to get off to a great start. But to claim that serious questions need to be asked if Adelaide don't make top 4 is ludicrous.

 

[sumavich]

I'd say its a pretty good draw! They play two of the first three at home, and the game in the middle they had a bye. Soft start, hopefully that helps us this w/end.

 

[Daytripper]

My point was when the AFL made their draw Essendon were a bottom 4 team & Adelaide was a bottom 8 team (2010). So for their planning purposes in 2011 they probably weren't planning on either team making the 8. So when you put on the list of top 8 teams from last year that we only play once then take Essendon off of that list. It just happens that both teams are improving to the point where they might challenge for the 8.

Again - not arguing there is a vast conspiracy or anything. Just that as it has happened to turn out, they have been very fortunate with the way the draw has fallen.

I am not denying it isn't a particularly fortunate draw, I'm just saying it isn't the cakewalk you think it's going to be. It isn't as hard as some other teams and it gives us the capacity to get off to a great start. But to claim that serious questions need to be asked if Adelaide don't make top 4 is ludicrous.

Disagree

 

[Hank93]

As a crows fan I will admit that we have an easy draw. We play two teams from last years top 8 twice (St Kilda and Geelong). It is fair to say that STK look like they are struggling and Geelong are not flying either. Despite a terrible year in 2010, we were able to beat Geelong and St Kilda. The other 4 double up games are against Port, Brisbane, Gold Coast and West Coast. Argubly the bottom 4 teams for 2011. We also do not travel to another state outside of Victoria until round 20 against Brisbane. First three games of the year are AAMI Stadium. Not complaining in the slightest.

 

[melanChronic]

Just reading this it seems a few people are quite convinced that the AFL factors in ladder positions last year and potential income gained from a particular team doing well when making the fixture. They are talking almost as if it is an established fact that the AFL makes adjustments year by year to try and propel teams up or down the ladder.

Of course there is the equalisation policies such as draft and salary cap, and it seems pretty obvious that the AFL designs the fixture to maximise matchday revenues, but I think it's a fair stretch- probably entering the realm of conspiracy- to say that the AFL is actively trying to give the Crows a fair go with their draw this year because last year they struggled a bit.

 

[Jars458]

Easy solution, get rid of four Melbourne teams and then everyone can play everyone else twice.

I nominate Carlton Collingwood Richmond and oh let me see now..........ESSENDON.

Seriously though, the draw is so compromised its a lottery every year as to how good your draw is. We thought we had a good draw last year, and ended up 0-6.

 

[woopedazz]

Just reading this it seems a few people are quite convinced that the AFL factors in ladder positions last year and potential income gained from a particular team doing well when making the fixture. They are talking almost as if it is an established fact that the AFL makes adjustments year by year to try and propel teams up or down the ladder.

Of course there is the equalisation policies such as draft and salary cap, and it seems pretty obvious that the AFL designs the fixture to maximise matchday revenues, but I think it's a fair stretch- probably entering the realm of conspiracy- to say that the AFL is actively trying to give the Crows a fair go with their draw this year because last year they struggled a bit.

If you're referring to my post I do believe the AFL have a slightly contrived fixture, but the fixture is not set to favour us; simply to maximise profits.

 

[Jars458]

Oh and on Crowds. Since 1991 the highest avearage home attendance season for the Crows was 46 266 and the lowest was 35 766.

For Essendon in that time the highest was 57 309 and the lowest 36 804.

Clearly lots of different factors at play but celarly Essenodn's varaition was at alot more than Adelaide's. Roughly 36% to 22% drop from highest to lowest.

 

[melanChronic]

If you're referring to my post I do believe the AFL have a slightly contrived fixture, but the fixture is not set to favour us; simply to maximise profits.

Yeah not really to yours so much, but I still think there is a big difference between the AFL looking to maximise profits through maximising crowd attendances (i.e. 2 rivalry games each year, Collingwood bunking down in Melbourne for first 2 thirds of the season) and it maximising profits by ensuring a certain team has an easy draw so that its supporters remain interested (I could be agreeing with you here, this is more a general comment).

 

[MarkT2]

Luck of the draw is just that but they should have high expectations of challanging for the top 4.

 

[anthc]

Just reading this it seems a few people are quite convinced that the AFL factors in ladder positions last year and potential income gained from a particular team doing well when making the fixture. They are talking almost as if it is an established fact that the AFL makes adjustments year by year to try and propel teams up or down the ladder.

Of course there is the equalisation policies such as draft and salary cap, and it seems pretty obvious that the AFL designs the fixture to maximise matchday revenues, but I think it's a fair stretch- probably entering the realm of conspiracy- to say that the AFL is actively trying to give the Crows a fair go with their draw this year because last year they struggled a bit.

leave bigfooty now, and take your sensible posts with you

 

[Consolaçao]

Firstly they play Lions and Suns twice and no disrespect intended but they are basically 4 guaranteed wins plus a percentage booster as well.

Then they play the following teams only once.

Carlton (away)
Collingwood (away)
Hawthorn (home)
Fremantle (home)
Sydney (home)
Essendon (home)
Bulldogs (away)

It is a seriously soft draw and questions need to be asked if they don't at least make top 4 in my opinion.

You're right. We have an absolute Collingwood of a draw this year, so hopefully we can take advantage of it. I think anything less than top 4 would be a disappointment.

 

[tribey]

3 games at AAMI and a bye in the first month. Pretty shmick. I'm sure the AFL will even things out by sending them to Subiaco in Round 22 next year.

 

[Cap]

what the hell - we came 11th last season (well something like that)

we don' get a "soft draw" we don't even deserve the implied thought that we are good enough to have a soft draw.

 

[ok.crows]

what the hell - we came 11th last season (well something like that).

The Crows play these sides twice: Port, Brisbane, GC, Geelong, St Kilda, Eagles

So that makes three sides of that six who finished above the Crows last year. So six games against higher teams there. The Crows finished 11th, so apart from those six games they play another seven games against another seven sides who finished above the Crows last year. In thirteen games out of 22 this year the Crows have to play against sides who finished above them last year.

That is one hell of a tough draw compared with Collingwood's.

 

[afc9798]

Firstly they play Lions and Suns twice and no disrespect intended but they are basically 4 guaranteed wins plus a percentage booster as well.

Then they play the following teams only once.

Carlton (away)
Collingwood (away)
Hawthorn (home)
Fremantle (home)
Sydney (home)
Essendon (home)
Bulldogs (away)

It is a seriously soft draw and questions need to be asked if they don't at least make top 4 in my opinion.

It's not the worst we've had, but it's certainly not a soft draw. A soft draw is when you are Collingwood. Every year is a soft draw due to their crowd pulling power. I can understand why the AFL do it, but does make for an uneven playing field and makes it even harder for other clubs to catch up. Good luck to them, but if you want to talk soft draws....look no further.

 

[Byron_Clanger]

Everyone apparently have a soft draw as opposed to their clubs, get over it

 

[Primetime Pricey]

It's not the worst we've had, but it's certainly not a soft draw. A soft draw is when you are Collingwood. Every year is a soft draw due to their crowd pulling power. I can understand why the AFL do it, but does make for an uneven playing field and makes it even harder for other clubs to catch up. Good luck to them, but if you want to talk soft draws....look no further.

Oh dear

This season our draw is fairly easy but last year we had one of the tougher draws out of all the teams. We were only 1 of 2 sides who played Saints, Cats, Dogs and Hawks twice. There is always a team who has a better draw then us but the focus goes on us cause we are Collingwood. This year Melbourne have the easiest draw and last year it was Essendon.
Crows cant complain, dont leave AAMI or Melbourne until Round 20 so travel is not a real factor this year for them. They would be very happy

 

[MarcusP2]

3 games at AAMI and a bye in the first month. Pretty shmick. I'm sure the AFL will even things out by sending them to Subiaco in Round 22 next year.

We are at Subiaco in round 24 this year.

 

[WAG]

Firstly they play Lions and Suns twice and no disrespect intended but they are basically 4 guaranteed wins plus a percentage booster as well.

Then they play the following teams only once.

Carlton (away)
Collingwood (away)
Hawthorn (home)
Fremantle (home)
Sydney (home)
Essendon (home)
Bulldogs (away)

It is a seriously soft draw and questions need to be asked if they don't at least make top 4 in my opinion.

I'm not really sure what your point is, particularly your last statement. What questions would need to be asked?

BTW in 2007 Essendon finished 12th. In 2008 you played two games against WB (13th), Carlton (15th) and Richmond (16th). You only played one top four team twice in WC (3rd) who subsequently ended up finsihing 15th in 2008. You only traveled outside of Victoria on four occasions. If that isn't the softest of fixtures I don't know what is.

What did you do with this dream fixture? You finished 12th again!!

What questions did you ask at the end of 2008? Afterall, if you couldn't make the top four with that seriously soft fixture, questions need to be asked!


Finally, why are you including Essendon in your calculations? In the last four years you have finsihed 12th, 12th, 8th and 14th. Using betting odds as justification is just embarrassing.

 

[Geoffa32]

Good to hear. We have some clout in VFL house. Probably the most influential club outside of Vic, and more than some of the Vic minnows. Our CEO Triggy is well connected, and may even have Vlads job one day. Note the clubs that are proactive in forming great relationships are the favoured ones. Not any different to other aspects in life.

Still have to win the games. Our draw was not too bad last year either.

The flipside to this soft draw is that we have not faced enough quality come September.


LOL at Ports draw BTW. 18th consideration of the AFL, proven by sending them to the outer suburbs of Adelaide to play GWS in the final scratch match. Two weeks before playing Collingwood.

 

[yibbida]

Just reading this it seems a few people are quite convinced that the AFL factors in ladder positions last year and potential income gained from a particular team doing well when making the fixture. They are talking almost as if it is an established fact that the AFL makes adjustments year by year to try and propel teams up or down the ladder.

Of course there is the equalisation policies such as draft and salary cap, and it seems pretty obvious that the AFL designs the fixture to maximise matchday revenues, but I think it's a fair stretch- probably entering the realm of conspiracy- to say that the AFL is actively trying to give the Crows a fair go with their draw this year because last year they struggled a bit.

I agree about with your point that they are not trying to assist the Crows in particular.

However, if you look back over the last few years you will see teams that finish bottom 8 tend to play each other more than the top 8 teams. Which also means top 8 teams play each other more often than bottom 8 teams. This gives teams outside the 8 the opportunity to "come from nowhere" to make the top 8.

All of this is slighlty skewed by the fact there are some teams that will always play each other twice regardless of ladder positions (ie showdowns, derbys, Carlton V Collingwood, Carlton V Essendon, Essendon V Collingwood etc).

The AFL want all teams to play finals over a certain period (5 - 8 years). The draft and salary cap obviously contributes to this also. Can you name a team that hasn't played finals in the last 8 years?

 

[damuzzdu]

I agree about with your point that they are not trying to assist the Crows in particular.

However, if you look back over the last few years you will see teams that finish bottom 8 tend to play each other more than the top 8 teams. Which also means top 8 teams play each other more often than bottom 8 teams. This gives teams outside the 8 the opportunity to "come from nowhere" to make the top 8.

All of this is slighlty skewed by the fact there are some teams that will always play each other twice regardless of ladder positions (ie showdowns, derbys, Carlton V Collingwood, Carlton V Essendon, Essendon V Collingwood etc).

The AFL want all teams to play finals over a certain period (5 - 8 years). The draft and salary cap obviously contributes to this also. Can you name a team that hasn't played finals in the last 8 years?

Yes, Richmond

 

[juzz88]

I'm more annoyed by the fact that Carlton, Richmond, Essendon and Collingwood play each other twice EVERY year.

So IF (big if, but I'm just giving an example) we are all top 8 or better sides in the same year we are at a massive disadvantage.

As others have stated, it's all about revenue.

A double round robin home and away season is the only fair way to run the league, but unfortunately this will never happen. The AFL should have been looking to move Melbourne teams interstate (eg. Tassie Hawks) and letting teams fold (Norf) to reduce the number of teams so that maybe in the future a double round robin is feasible. 14 clubs in a 26 round home and away season could have been achieved quite easily.

Instead they added two more teams, making the league season even more unbalanced.

Well done AFL, you are a joke.

 

[WAG]

I'm more annoyed by the fact that Carlton, Richmond, Essendon and Collingwood play each other twice EVERY year.

So IF (big if, but I'm just giving an example) we are all top 8 or better sides in the same year we are at a massive disadvantage.


Well done AFL, you are a joke.

Just to put your mind at ease, this has never happened in over 30 years of AFL/VFL ! I only went back to 1980, however in that time Carlton, Richmond, Collingwood and Essendon have never finished in the top 8 together (or top six/five as we go back further). The closest it came was in 2001 when Collingwood finished 9th.