The future

[Pevers-Legend]

This thread just highlights another reason why I really am struggling to care about AFL at all. Still love footy, but I am fast losing all respect for this comp.

 

[Yoda_]

Much over-reaction by less than learned judges. One premiership between GWS and GC by 2020 is feasible, and two is an outside chance. There is no chance of domination - Or put this way, every club has a chance to dominate the competition, though history shows this rarely happens.

You would think that this is pretty accurate. Many on here are having an over reaction to the wins.

Gold Coast have the wood over Richmond (3/4 victories) whilst Sydney went in KP happy, once the rain began to fall, they seemingly left the stadium with the KPP's hardly getting a hand on it.

Yes, they were strong, exceptional victories by any stretch of the imagination but it is one game, one round.

How many top 10 draft picks have come and go without dominating AFL football? even in recent years? the injury plagued ones, the let downs, the ones who are home sick?

Plenty of water to flow under this bridge in the next 6 years before any sort of conclusion can be made about the (expected) dominance of these two sides. We all need to remember that there are other AFL clubs, lists, just as young as these expansion clubs that are heading in the right direction, obviously the top talent has not been loaded up by fat santa (Vlad), but there are 18 teams in this competition and some teams, established teams are still searching for there first (or second) premierships in some long and established histories.

 

[Pevers-Legend]

You would think that this is pretty accurate. Many on here are having an over reaction to the wins.

Gold Coast have the wood over Richmond (3/4 victories) whilst Sydney went in KP happy, once the rain began to fall, they seemingly left the stadium with the KPP's hardly getting a hand on it.

Yes, they were strong, exceptional victories by any stretch of the imagination but it is one game, one round.

How many top 10 draft picks have come and go without dominating AFL football? even in recent years? the injury plagued ones, the let downs, the ones who are home sick?

Plenty of water to flow under this bridge in the next 6 years before any sort of conclusion can be made about the (expected) dominance of these two sides. We all need to remember that there are other AFL clubs, lists, just as young as these expansion clubs that are heading in the right direction, obviously the top talent has not been loaded up by fat santa (Vlad), but there are 18 teams in this competition and some teams, established teams are still searching for there first (or second) premierships in some long and established histories.

who have never had, nor likely ever will have the golden leg up gifted GWS and GC.

Whether they win flag after flag or not, they will be dominant teams and will be very hard to beat. Contrived results from a contrived sporting body, hence my disgust.

 

[Howard Moon]

at least we can say that their list will always have an unhealty balance to it, and they will all hit that retirement age together then drop off the face of the earth. Granted they will also all reach their pomp together but still, there is light at the end of the tunnel if it turns into a dynasty

 

[rines]

Whether they win premierships or not, who knows.. but they are going to be damn exciting to watch if you ask me..

 

[Howard Moon]

on talking footy they were just saying the last 4 premiership sides, Syd, Haw, Coll & geelong each had 11 or 12 1st round draft picks...

GWS has had 22... this is not a drill.. batten down the hatches! GC has only had 10, shows the different ways they have gone about it.

It may be a long bow to draw but the last number one Boyd may even be superflous to their needs, infact you could nearly suggest they took him in order to try poach an established gun mid from another side in the next year or so?

patton and cameron is a fair start, does boyd fit in with a patton type?

What would boyd be worth on the open market? I'm sure a club desperate for a gun key fwd would give a nice 22-24 year old mid in return...

 

[yaco55]

I'm not saying that I believe in the GC / GWS domination hypothesis but there is no historical precedent for the concessions received by GC and in particular GWS. It could end up with a massive talent raid but it is just as likely that they remain dominant for a lengthy period of time. For now though the level of talent - realised or expected - is simply incredible.

WC came in with a WA team, Adelaide came in with a SA team - WC 3 premierships in 27 years and Adelaide 2 premierships in 23 years. I rst my case.

 

[Howard Moon]

WC came in with a WA team, Adelaide came in with a SA team - WC 3 premierships in 27 years and Adelaide 2 premierships in 23 years. I rst my case.

not an ideal example!

gws/gc had access to the best talent funnelled in from every state, i.e the best of the best. The clubs you mentioned only had the best of their particular state.

 

[yaco55]

Oh excuse me, we have a learned friend in the house!

history has never shown a competition handicapped by a draft and salary cap compared to clubs without those contraints.

And why are you limiting this to 2020? Boyd and Kelly will only be 24-25. Wanna bet they will win more than one by 2024, their current window?

Ill buy you a High Mark membership if GC and GWS cant snag more than one flag by then.

I used the year 2020 because worrisome folk in the media - the so called experts stated that the two expansion teams will win premierships in their 5th or 6th years which will be 2015/16 for GC and 2016/2017 for GWS. I have given the clubs an extra 3 or 4 years.

 

[yaco55]

not an ideal example!

gws/gc had access to the best talent funnelled in from every state, i.e the best of the best. The clubs you mentioned only had the best of their particular state.

But a significant difference - Nearly all their players were 21+ - You have a much better idea if a guy can play at that age.

 

[yaco55]

who have never had, nor likely ever will have the golden leg up gifted GWS and GC.

Whether they win flag after flag or not, they will be dominant teams and will be very hard to beat. Contrived results from a contrived sporting body, hence my disgust.

But most are arguing premierships - Big difference being dominant.

 

[rines]

No matter which way you slice it.. it is unprecedented what the AFL has done.. especially if you consider the GWS stockpile.. it is double the number of first rounders ever assembled before.. will be interesting to see which 'method' works best..

And those in doubt.. clearly you can't see the forest for the trees...

 

[Big Fresh]

on talking footy they were just saying the last 4 premiership sides, Syd, Haw, Coll & geelong each had 11 or 12 1st round draft picks...

GWS has had 22... this is not a drill.. batten down the hatches! GC has only had 10, shows the different ways they have gone about it.

It may be a long bow to draw but the last number one Boyd may even be superflous to their needs, infact you could nearly suggest they took him in order to try poach an established gun mid from another side in the next year or so?

patton and cameron is a fair start, does boyd fit in with a patton type?

What would boyd be worth on the open market? I'm sure a club desperate for a gun key fwd would give a nice 22-24 year old mid in return...

Fyfe's out of contract this year and is putting off negotiations and we know GWS were after him last year. Freo obviously wouldn't want to lose Fyfe but if he requests a trade for a tonne of money they could definitely use a young gun key forward. It'd probably be Boyd + a first round pick or someone like O'Rourke for Fyfe if it happened. But overall it's improbable because both Boyd and Fyfe look like staying.

 

[Howard Moon]

Fyfe's out of contract this year and is putting off negotiations and we know GWS were after him last year. Freo obviously wouldn't want to lose Fyfe but if he requests a trade for a tonne of money they could definitely use a young gun key forward. It'd probably be Boyd + a first round pick or someone like O'Rourke for Fyfe if it happened. But overall it's improbable because both Boyd and Fyfe look like staying.

looks ideal!

fwiw, arnt we the other clubs partly to blame for letting gws stockpile 22 first rounders?

 

[Old Campaigner]

looks ideal!

fwiw, arnt we the other clubs partly to blame for letting gws stockpile 22 first rounders?

For refusing to trade their stars?

 

[fishardansin]

I tend to agree that they probably won't lose anyone that really hurts until after much, if not all, of the damage has been done.

Correct. If I was an AFL player and I had a choice of being in constant contention for a flag over a period of 6 years and had a little less responsibility in the team so I could enjoy the game more I'd happily play for $300k rather than $500k. Especially when you take into account that earning $300k over 6 years would set me up for life if managed smartly, which the club could help with by setting up a smart investment advisor on the staff.

Finally, if I was to retire with 8 or more finals series under my belt, perhaps 5 or more grand finals and a few premierships there would be a life long career in coaching or commentating .... unless you're a tool like Martin Pike or Akermanis.

 

[Yoda_]

To be fair, the other clubs are to blame for allowing GWS & Gold Coast to stockpile these first rounders.

The AFL gave GWS and Gold Coast mature age players to trade out in hope that established clubs offered established, hardened bodies for these guys. Instead, the expansion clubs stockpiled the picks offered and added some more with an eye to a dominant era rather than an immediate impact the AFL wanted.

The AFL gave these picks to the expansion clubs to go out and get the best talent in the land but the reluctance of established clubs to trade there stars for these picks has sent Gold Coast & GWS into a spin and looked to the future by stockpiling the picks and adding to them (Gold Coast in particular with the additions of Jack Martin & Jaegar O'Meara).

We can all blame the AFL, but everyone had the chance to get some of these picks on offer but didn't want to lose players.

The age old saying of having to give something good to get something good was on show when Gold Coast offered pick 2 + compensation pick for Jack Martin in the mini draft. Shows they were prepared to go all out for something they want/

 

[Whispering_Jack]

WC came in with a WA team, Adelaide came in with a SA team - WC 3 premierships in 27 years and Adelaide 2 premierships in 23 years. I rst my case.

Well actually WC 2 premierships within 9 years and 3 within 19 years. The players 'coming in from a WA team' playing in the 92 and 94 premierships can hardly be factored in much later than 10 or so years after inception.

 

[rines]

To be fair, the other clubs are to blame for allowing GWS & Gold Coast to stockpile these first rounders.

The AFL gave GWS and Gold Coast mature age players to trade out in hope that established clubs offered established, hardened bodies for these guys. Instead, the expansion clubs stockpiled the picks offered and added some more with an eye to a dominant era rather than an immediate impact the AFL wanted.

The AFL gave these picks to the expansion clubs to go out and get the best talent in the land but the reluctance of established clubs to trade there stars for these picks has sent Gold Coast & GWS into a spin and looked to the future by stockpiling the picks and adding to them (Gold Coast in particular with the additions of Jack Martin & Jaegar O'Meara).

We can all blame the AFL, but everyone had the chance to get some of these picks on offer but didn't want to lose players.

The age old saying of having to give something good to get something good was on show when Gold Coast offered pick 2 + compensation pick for Jack Martin in the mini draft. Shows they were prepared to go all out for something they want/

I think you are right to certain extent. I don't think you can entirely blame the other clubs though.. both GC and GWS made it pretty clear they want to 'build from the ground up' rather than trade.. I agree that AFL probably wanted far more trading to occur to stop the 'stockpiling' effect.. so yes the other clubs could have gone harder for the picks, but at the same time.. the new entrants weren't entirely interested.

It also co-coincided with the introduction of Free Agency, which AFL didn't properly account for.. and that meant that there were more opportunities for player movements without trade anyway..

The key will be AFTER the expected 'dominance' era.. how do the clubs go then.. look at Brisbane to see how quickly the new found gains can be lost.. less than 10 years later and they are struggling for members, money, players, on field success of any kind.. Sydney has kept the on field success for a ten year period but is still struggling for members..

They key will be how much market share GWS and GC can build in the next 3-7 years with this core group of youngsters. IMHO, coming 2020 onwards.. the 'bounce' effect will be gone and then we will truly see if we have built two strong CLUBS or just two glossy looking poster teams for a couple of years...

 

[Essendonia]

Some warped posts around.

To gain legitimacy as a new franchise club, each were given the best change to build an exciting, successful list to consolidate their place within the AFL, and win over local fans and supporters. There is no surprise to this, and there is no reason to have a sook about it. Subject to poor management, each of GC and GWS ought to be playing finals for the majority of the next decade. By the end of that period, they ought each to have established themselves solidly in foreign markets, within the league, and commercially, and equalisation should be universal.

Unfortunately, probably by the time that happens, we'll be dealing with perhaps another new franchise, a merger or some international expansion nonsense instead of simply allowing the public to enjoy a natural league, free from league intervention.

Either way, I was pumped for them both to get up, and it's great to see some of these players play. I suppose, in a way, the deprivation of State of Origin will be temporarily partially allayed when we can still see a large group of profoundly talented players sharing a jumper.

 

[King Patty]

If Gary Ablett does a career ending injury - ie Hirds foot injury then I cant see Gold coast winning the flag. they will be competitive. will make finals in the near future, but need to keep all their stars to go all the way. Plus need to continue to recruit well as wont have concessions anymore. The other thing is the coach - is Guy McKenna capable of taking this team all the way. Generally with new teams their first coach doesn't take them to a premiership. This will lead to more player movement. Plus go home factor, which has already resulted in the loss of caddy.

With GWS they have received way too many concessions. Or have been really smart and extracted the wealth of the draft by trading off unused picks and getting further up the draft. They also have the go home factor...but Sydney is also an attractive place to live - see Buddy/tippet, when GWS are closer to a flag im sure players will want to go there too, hell they got mumford and shaw this year. Their future drafting is pretty much assured as they should get some decent draft picks in return for their top 20 picked kids with development that get traded due to not being best 22 or having a surplus of that type, as a number of clubs will be vying for their services see adams.. And Rhys Palmer will not last much longer at that club. I would say GWS will play finals next year, they could even give it a shake this year, however I expect them to fade out at the end of the year. If they can front load contracts of the young guns, it will put them in good stead of keeping team together.

 

[Zach Package]

looks ideal!

fwiw, arnt we the other clubs partly to blame for letting gws stockpile 22 first rounders?

They were also given access to basically everyone in the state leagues, out of contract players, as well as the mini draft.

As far as I can remember
Adelaide (Crouch, Brown)
GC (Martin, O'Meara)
Richmond (Morris, traded down to Ellis)
Hawthorn (Boumann, Anderson and scraps),
Melbourne (Hogan, Barry, picks),
Collingwood (Elliott, Clarke),
Port (Picks for Cornes and Brogan)
Saints (Milera, Saad, Lee)
all traded with GWS, and all got significant returns. It's not the other club's fault that the AFL gave them so many tradable resources to work with in the first place

 

[fishardansin]

at least we can say that their list will always have an unhealty balance to it, and they will all hit that retirement age together then drop off the face of the earth. Granted they will also all reach their pomp together but still, there is light at the end of the tunnel if it turns into a dynasty

GWS has been shown to be very astute and GCS also for getting the best 17 year old two years in a row bringing O'Meara and Martin to the club. So I envisage that they'll keep the dynasty going. An example of all they'll have to do is offer one of their top ten picks who have been developed for a year or two for another top ten pick. They can do that every second year and make sure they have three picks in the top 20 every 2 years.

In 5 years time O'Meara or Martin may want to go back to WA and bring a deal to gold coast similar to what West Coast got with Judd. Can you imagine what Carlton would give up now for Patton or Boyd? What would Essendon give up for Bennel or Matera? Yes maybe a 2nd rounder with Dyson.

 

[fishardansin]

Everyone agreed to what they were given because they expected them to trade hard to have a team contending for the 8 immediately and potentially a top four side within a few years. They of course played the system to end up with the highest impact.

The concessions they were given would have been fair if they were forced to say trade away half their picks for players over the age of 24, or something like that.

The gifts they were given were exploited so that we have to put up with some junk games over the last few years and will now be unable to compete with the top teams. This has damaged the competition in my eyes. There should not be certainties like playing those two teams has been and there should not be sides head and shoulders above the rest for a sustained period.

 

[yaco55]

Well actually WC 2 premierships within 9 years and 3 within 19 years. The players 'coming in from a WA team' playing in the 92 and 94 premierships can hardly be factored in much later than 10 or so yeposts ars after inception.

The posts discuss total domination - It doesn't give a time frame - I am trying to give context to the argument - Anyway the rest can worry about this CERTAIN dominance by GC and GWS.