The poison chalice that is pick one

[PP34]

With Carlton looking like a lock for pick one, I’ve obviously been paying attention to the draft and had a look at previous pick ones.

Why year after year do clubs fail to take the best player in the draft with pick one?

Are recruiters getting it that wrong every year? Or do these clubs suck at developing talent?

Decided to look at the drafts from 2000-2015.

2015: Jacob Weitering. Oliver or Curnow clearly look like being the best of the draft.

2014: Paddy McCartin. No real standout yet, but Petracca, Brayshaw, De Goey clearly better.

2013: Tom Boyd drafted ahead of Cripps, Bont. Kelly etc.

2012: Lachie Whitfield. Good player but Wines and Macrae better in my opinion.

2011: Jonathon Patton. Again good player but the likes of Mitchell, Docherty etc ahead.
2010: David Swallow. Numerous ahead of him.

Could go on but I think the point has been made. Going back to 2000 I think there’s only been two drafts where the best player has gone number 1. Goddard in 2002 and Riewoldt in 2000. Even dating back to the start of the draft teams continually don’t draft the best player.


Should bottom teams like Carlton actually think about this when thinking of what to do with the pick?

Clearly either players are being overrated year after year or clubs are developing their pick ones horribly.

 

[DrEvil_]

Take Hodge pick 1 every time.

 

[Jootube]

Lets say hypothetically pick 1 has a ~20% chance of being the best player in the draft, pick 2 ~19%, pick 3% ~18%, so on.
When the best player ISN'T pick 1 4/5th of the time, it gets really easy to say that pick 1 is overrated.

Another way to look at it, can you show me a single pick that you would take ahead of the first pick? Totally unfair to compare picks 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9.... to just pick 1.

 

[PP34]

Take Hodge pick 1 every time.

Oh look it’s taken about two minutes for a Hawks fan to make the predictable Hodge comment.

 

[yeahmate]

Oh look it’s taken about two minutes for a Hawks fan to make the predictable Hodge comment.

Predictable because its true

 

[PP34]

Predictable because its true

Where did I ever say Hawks fans shouldn’t be happy with Hodge?

 

[Yeti]

It's pretty hard for a talented player to become elite when he walks into clubs at the bottom of the ladder with poor development history and in worse cases, into clubs with poor leadership to set the training and preperation standards.

 

[yeahmate]

Where did I ever say Hawks fans shouldn’t be happy with Hodge?

You said pick 1 was a poison chalice except for Riewold and Goddard. Think leaving Hodge out of the summation was either a deliberate attempt to provoke Hawk supporters or otherwise a fairly serious omission for the main premise of your thread

 

[Tony Harrison]

They seem to struggle with the hype and attention.
Gotta pick someone that can overcome that.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Trade us the pick #1 & problem solved.

Would be nice to have our 1st one given the SA talent available.

 

[RUNVS]

It's pretty hard for a talented player to become elite when he walks into clubs at the bottom of the ladder with poor development history and in worse cases, into clubs with poor leadership to set the training and preperation standards.

I wonder how many players who were drafted by Carlton or Melbourne over the years who were actually really good players, and would have succeeded had they been drafted to a different club but because their development was so bad at Melbourne or Carlton they never even began to realise their potential.

I still firmly believe Luke Tapscott would have been a good player if he was drafted to a better club.

 

[Cincinnatus]

When SOS would rather protect his ego over building a decent list its hard for no. 1 picks to carry the extra load.

 

[PP34]

You said pick 1 was a poison chalice except for Riewold and Goddard. Think leaving Hodge out of the summation was either a deliberate attempt to provoke Hawk supporters or otherwise a fairly serious omission for the main premise of your thread

You’re just nitpicking for the sake of it.

Only Hawks fans would think Hodge is the standout from that draft.

 

[STPer18]

Would swap our 1st pick for Carlton's if it's such a hassle.

 

[juss]

You could say the same for pick 2 not being second best in the draft, pick 3 not the third best and so forth.

Newsflash: players drafted at 18 don't always follow the same trajectory of development. Luck, injuries, development coaches, genetics, biological development, work ethic, the club they play for, family circumstances, health, psychology and about a million other variables all play a part in determining the player.

Put simply, pick 1 gives you the certain chance at getting the exact player you want. That's why it is valuable.

 

[Tony Harrison]

I wonder how many players who were drafted by Carlton or Melbourne over the years who were actually really good players, and would have succeeded had they been drafted to a different club but because their development was so bad at Melbourne or Carlton they never even began to realise their potential.

I still firmly believe Luke Tapscott would have been a good player if he was drafted to a better club.

I think some players need more guided development than others.
We drafted Cotchin and Martin while our development was woeful and they still turned out as stars.
We had plenty of promising picks that failed to come on though.

 

[nahnah]

eventually Carlton will get one right, have faith

 

[PP34]

I wonder how many players who were drafted by Carlton or Melbourne over the years who were actually really good players, and would have succeeded had they been drafted to a different club but because their development was so bad at Melbourne or Carlton they never even began to realise their potential.

I still firmly believe Luke Tapscott would have been a good player if he was drafted to a better club.

Then on the contrary I’ve always wondered how someone like Joel Selwood would have turned out if he was drafted by a bottom side.

 

[Tony Harrison]

Then on the contrary I’ve always wondered how someone like Joel Selwood would have turned out if he was drafted by a bottom side.

He would have still been good.
Like how Patrick Cripps is a gun for you guys.
Some players have that combination of natural talent and self directed work ethic that they'll get there anyway.
Others benefit from a good system.

 

[Snarls Barkley]

https://www.draftguru.com.au/picks

Pick 1 averages more games than any other pick. Not every pick 1 is going to be a gun but there is a lot less chance that they’re going to be a complete bust

 

[Brunswick Trap King]

https://www.draftguru.com.au/picks

Pick 1 averages more games than any other pick. Not every pick 1 is going to be a gun but there is a lot less chance that they’re going to be a complete bust

Could that also be because they get more chances than other picks?

 

[Anja_Nees]

The reason a lot of these clubs have the #1 pick in the first place is that they are bad at drafting.

 

[PP34]

He would have still been good.
Like how Patrick Cripps is a gun for you guys.
Some players have that combination of natural talent and self directed work ethic that they'll get there anyway.
Others benefit from a good system.

Yeah, but would he have had any flaws that never got fixed? Would he have trained as hard if he was playing under s**t leaders?

Not saying he wouldn’t have been a good player because I absolutely think he would be, just wonder how differently things would look.

Same with Cripps even. If he can standout at Carlton, how amazing would he be playing for the Tigers?

 

[PP34]

Could that also be because they get more chances than other picks?

Yeah you can be the biggest spud in the world as a top 5 pick and still play plenty of games. You might even get multiple chances at different clubs because of that golden word known as potential.

Meanwhile some bloke drafted pick 60 may play two games, not perform and never see AFL gametime again.

 

[Jpw22511]

I like turtles.