We flogged you on the G in 2019 as well. Regular season doesn’t matter.
It all changes in finals.
The premiership race is not wide open
- Thread starter Red Bear
- Start date
- Tagged users None
It all changes in finals.
Some players have issues in finals. I really hope Cameron isn't one of them. Blessed with almost everything you could hope for in a footballer. Dominates during the home & away.
His finals record at GWS (and last year) isn't the best. 1.7 goals per game from more than enough appearances.
Having said that, I have much more faith in Cameron averaging his 2-3 goals this year than what I would Hawkins.
He’ll need to lift his game obviously from the 2.5 he’s averaged in his last 8 finals then.
And yes before you say it we know it’s only the finals you deem relevant that count.
Or his 2 per game in his last 16.
Yeah I’ve got no faith he can average 2 or 3 either
Oh look, cherry picking stats to prove a point again
What about we check out his averages from the past three finals then?
I would love to live in your head where you see the world exactly how you want to see it.
The team of the 90's probably won a flag as well.
Oh look, cherry picking stats to prove a point again
What about we check out his averages from the past three finals then?
I would love to live in your head where you see the world exactly how you want to see it.
The team of the 90's probably won a flag as well.
Cherry picking stats - 8 and 16 match sample sizes aren’t enough but 12 is.
Interesting.
The guy kicked 15 goals in his first 12 finals. In his 17 since then he’s averaged 2 per game over a decade.
How the f*** is that cherry-picking?
I would love to live in your head where facts and figures simply don’t matter and your utter disdain for the team you claim to support rules above all else
Of course we would be ‘worried’ in the sense that nothing is a sure thing and no one can be taken for granted. But to claim that Geelong would go in as anything other than justified favourites (at this stage and on current form) is an utter pile of horse manure. For god’s sake just go barrack for someone else - your consistent negativity is beyond a joke.
My favourite habit of fans of his ilk is when for example the issue of game plan comes up and there’s the whole ‘we told you so. Needed to do this and this and this’ as though all the players who’ve improved and developed as they’ve gotten 20-50 games into them were always capable of executing the current approach.
Then when you point that out, they say ‘it’s the coach and club’s fault for not picking them earlier.’ It gets pointed out that we did pick young players. They simply didn’t show as much.
So then they rag on the recruitment.
Which is easily countered by saying we have never had a good draft hand.
‘Maybe if we stopped trading picks we would.’
In which case we probably would have fallen down the table, been out of finals for the best part of a decade, and had no idea when we would ever get back into the competitive mix.
It’s just a never ending shitfest of trying to find excuses to bag anyone and everyone involved in the club and God only knows what would motivate anyone at the club to try and perform for people like that
They're a mathematical possibility, in a quantum physics kind of way...
- Apr 30, 2015
- 13,618
- 24,444
- AFL Club
- West Coast
I'm not sure that even quantum physics is that strange.
I did not pick the number 12.
That is the total number of finals appearances he has had throughout his career. Perhaps in your mind he has played 16 or more but that isn't the reality of the situation.
He had already played 92 games before that first appearance.
Not as if he was still finding his feet in the game.
21 goals from 12 matches. A goal average of 1.75.
No way would I justify us as favorites.
Absolutely no way in the world.
We have been in this situation on numerous times in the past. You lot just choose to forget and brush it under the carpet once another year has been wasted away.
I think any team that secures 4th, would be licking their lips at the prospect of playing a side who have the entire city riding on their shoulders. Knowing this is the same side who get flustered in finals and half the squad is well past it's prime.
Only a fool would put money on us.
- Sep 3, 2019
- 17,241
- 49,912
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Chris Scott even addressed it last year or maybe the year before and how it would be on the minds of the players. Was refreshingly honest
It's all a matter of probability.
Any of the remaining 9 or 10 teams could win the flag.
All that's being debated is the likelihood of each. That's what the OP of this thread was about.
Geelong is absolutely a real chance. If their odds were $5 I'd think that was good value. $4 or $4.50 seems about right.
At their current odds of $2.75 I wouldn't touch them with the proverbial 10 foot pole.
Which is not the same as saying they can't, or won't win.
Anything could happen and Geelong is right in the mix, and in better form than anyone.
Those of us questioning their finals credentials are really just expressing scepticism at them being short priced favourites.
Any of the remaining 9 or 10 teams could win the flag.
All that's being debated is the likelihood of each. That's what the OP of this thread was about.
Geelong is absolutely a real chance. If their odds were $5 I'd think that was good value. $4 or $4.50 seems about right.
At their current odds of $2.75 I wouldn't touch them with the proverbial 10 foot pole.
Which is not the same as saying they can't, or won't win.
Anything could happen and Geelong is right in the mix, and in better form than anyone.
Those of us questioning their finals credentials are really just expressing scepticism at them being short priced favourites.
Our finals performances this year will have NOTHING to do with what happened last year or any other year. It’s completely irrelevant. How does anything that happened previously affect what’s going on now? This is a footy fallacy that numbnuts journalists use to fill up empty space: “Team X/Y/Z went badly in finals last time round so they’ll probably do the same again.” There’s no logic to it - it’s completely guesswork and hot air as far as I’m concerned. Most of what the media spews out is utter crap - sometimes it’s entertaining just like those rubbish Marvel movies are entertaining (for some) but in the end it’s a complete load of bollocks.
How many premierships have Sydney won under Longmire (who has been in control about as long as Chris Scott)? ONE. How many times has Goodwin coached Melbourne to a premiership? ONE. How many times has he coached them to failure? MANY. How many premierships has Fly won as coach? ZERO. So by your logic and based on past experience, they have no more hope of winning it than us. Are those teams any more or less ‘flustered’ than ours??? They should all be according to your logic. So where’s the disadvantage to us?
We have a supporter base behind us (or call it a ‘city’ if you prefer). Other teams also have their supporter bases - to say that this is a reason that other teams will be ‘licking their lips’ at the prospect of playing us makes no sense at all. In fact it’s idiotic.
We’re a side that gets ‘flustered’? What do you base that on, Sigmund Freud? The fact that we’ve failed to win a premiership lately? Again, there’s no logic in your statement - you sound like a journalist who has to say something because silence is death for the media and so they make this pop psychology stuff up as they go along. It’s good for a laugh to read their cr*p but not much else.
We are favourites based on current form and the way we are playing and our personnel. That doesn’t mean we definitely will win it. It’s just a gauge of where we are at. And it’s justified based on CURRENT events, not on what happened last season or five seasons ago.
You and the other gloom merchants should zip it permanently or go barrack for St Kilda. Seriously, why do you bother ‘supporting’ the Cats?
Last edited:
Interested to see what your odds would be for the 10 remaining teams.
Mine would be (with actual odds in brackets):
$3 Geelong ($2.75)
$5 Sydney ($7)
$6 Collingwood ($8)
$7 Melbourne ($4)
$10 Brisbane ($12)
$15 Fremantle ($16)
$25 Richmond ($17)
$50 Bulldogs ($101)
$500 St Kilda ($151)
$1000 Carlton ($41)
My starting point is each teams' likelihood of finishing top 4, with Premiership odds basically in that order.
If it was completely irrelevant, we'd be unbackable favorites to win the flag right now. The footy world knows we have some issues which come abound in September.
I remember feeling very confident heading into the 2016 qualifying final against Hawthorn. Our form was red hot while they were WLWLW.
We barely scraped past them. Literally took Isaac Smith's missed shot at goal to hand us the win. It should never have been close to begin with. The Bulldogs put them to the sword the following week with one strong quarter of football.
This is why every Geelong supporter should be feeling uneasy. But it appears they are not. Quite confident and somewhat arrogant and that is always a worry. The players would sense that living in the bubble that they do. Never bodes well for us.
Hope I'm wrong but Collingwood wouldn't mind meeting us at the MCG in week one. I think Sydney wouldn't mind it either.
I am not confident, I just don't think it has a bearing. I think people in general place far more emphasis on history than they should. Richmond had a s**t finals record as well until they didn't. Eagles couldn't win at the MCG until they could, Hawthorn couldn't beat Geelong until they did. It makes no difference. The team is playing different enough that what happens in finals is unrelated to previous years.
But Richmond's age demographic was primed. They had one the best midfield' in the game at the time. Sure, no one saw what was to eventually become of them but they were starting to click on all four cylinders. It's similar to what we are seeing with Sydney right now.
I said that we are favourites based on current form and events.
Nothing is certain. That’s a no-brainer Captain Obvious.
But no worries Sigmund Freud. You’ve completely ignored just about everything I wrote in your response but you just keep on going if it makes you happy.
Last edited:
$4 Melbourne ($4)
$4.50 Geelong ($2.75)
$6 Sydney ($7)
$10 Brisbane ($13)
$11 Collingwood ($8)
$14 Richmond ($15)
$20 Fremantle ($15)
$40 Carlton ($41)
$60 Dogs ($101)
$100 St Kilda ($151)
Something like that.
So I rate Sydney, Brisbane, Richmond as better chances than the odds. Geelong, Collingwood, Fremantle worse.
Geelong was old in 2011 as well, especially up against Collingwood. It didn't matter.
I am not saying Geelong will for sure win the Flag. But people worry too much. Just enjoy life. I love how Geelong are playing right now, I love watching the games and I think they have some terrific young players coming through, I just enjoy it. There are a thousand and one reasons I could come up with why they won't win the Flag and sit here and analyse every imaginable bit of data, but I choose to just enjoy the moment and if they win it great, if not... I am sure I will get over it.
I think Collingwood is very underated still here. Your game is just set up for big finals with the crowd behind you. 4 quarters of what you did the other night will overwhelm Geelong in a final.
Similar threads
