Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

Which team has the better future prospects on-field?


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FairKouta

Premiership Player
Aug 3, 2016
3,139
7,038
MELBOURNE
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Carlton
Not saying there's been no improvement. You sacked the coach last year after all.

You can think of the following as percentage above or below par:

2010 +14.9
2011 +34.9
2012 -1.4
2013 -9.3
2014 -39.2
2015 -65.7
2016 -38.9
2017 -41.0
2018 -80.5
2019 -30.3
2020 -17.4

That's nine straight years below par. Next best/worst is North with six. Yes, there has been some improvement, but it's been a slow burn since Silvagni coined the "66-game rebuild" in what? April 2015?

Yes, Carlton have more cause for optimism than supporters of a few other clubs. And that hasn't been the case for a while.
Weitering mckay curnow jsos cunningham and willamson were drafted at the end of 2015. Apart from this draft the other drafts have been underwhelming. The rebuild started in 2016. We are 5 years into it.
if we don’t make finals next year then we will have failed imo. Still need a couple of elite mids and a gun small forward.
 

btdg

Premiership Player
Oct 7, 2005
4,166
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Melbourne
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Carlton
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Not saying there's been no improvement. You sacked the coach last year after all.

You can think of the following as percentage above or below par:

2010 +14.9
2011 +34.9
2012 -1.4
2013 -9.3
2014 -39.2
2015 -65.7
2016 -38.9
2017 -41.0
2018 -80.5
2019 -30.3
2020 -17.4

That's nine straight years below par. Next best/worst is North with six. Yes, there has been some improvement, but it's been a slow burn since Silvagni coined the "66-game rebuild" in what? April 2015?

Yes, Carlton have more cause for optimism than supporters of a few other clubs. And that hasn't been the case for a while.
Yep, it's been a brutal stretch.

2012 we sat top of the ladder after 3 games with a relatively young team and things looked very rosy. Then we had a brutal stretch of injuries that exposed the team a bit - great top-end talent but weak depth. We moved onto Malthouse from 2013-15 and he so thoroughly destroyed the club it was always going to take a long time to recover.

The '66 game rebuild' was always a bit of a misnomer - it was about rebuilding the list, not a path to success. By and large it worked with 66 games, too.

In 2015, we finished last, and yet our best players were either finished (Judd) or aged 27-28 (Murphy, Kreuzer, Gibbs). We have Cripps and Docherty in their early 20s, and most of the good players we had in between had either already left (Betts, Garlett, Waite, Robinson), or were leaving (Henderson, Yarran, Bell). The problem wasn't that we sucked. It was that we sucked AND were going to get worse.

The '66 game rebuild' was a list management strategy - spend 4 drafts (3 years) building a core of players to build around; we did that by trading even more players out to get heavily into those drafts (Touhy, Gibbs), trying to find guys from teh same drafts or the one previous elsewhere (Marchbnak, Kennedy, Setterfield) who came available, etc. But that core is still only 20-22. They're entering their prime now-ish - next year is realistically the first where we can compete, imo.

Those players might not be the next GWS or Geelong or whatever, but there's clearly a core to add to, and it gives us a 7-8 year run to get it 'right'.
 

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Manuel Labour

Draftee
Aug 17, 2009
1
0
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
We will be on par with 2020 St Kilda next year.

Consider our best 22, with those marked with an asterisk as "New" (Players that featured in less than 5 games this year are included, as well as hopeful blow ins)

BP: Marchbank* FB: Jones BP: Newman*
HBF: Docherty CHB: Weitering HBF: Plowman
W: E. Curnow C: Cripps W: Graham* (Rich)
HFF: Martin CHF: C. Curnow* HFF: Cunningham
FP: De Koning FF: McKay FP: Fisher

Followers: Pittonet,Z Wiliams*(GWS), S Walsh

Interchange:
Setterfield, Williamson, Murphy, Gibbons

I think it's realistic that we could obtain Jack Graham and Zac Williams, or at least one. Depending on their decisions of course. If we were to get the both of them, I really see this as a solid best 22.

The forward line is reasonably stacked, the Midfield / Wingers would be stacked. The backline outside Plowman/Williamson would be stacked too. If we couldn't finish at least 6th with that list on the park for the best part of a whole season then I'd be very disappointed. A lot of this hinges on Z Williams/Graham coming to the club of course. Or at least players of a similar ilk. Really, we can't afford not to get Williams. That transforms our center bounce team.

Obviously, we might not get anybody this trade period which would be disastrous. Our list profile is good though, of that best 22 I've highlighted you'd only have Murphy and Ed Curnow over 30 if I'm not mistaken?
No Sam Petrevski Seton?? (Surely in the best 22 but may be pushed out by Newman, Docherty and Williamson - Then again it will be horses for courses.) So out of best 22 would be J. Silvagni, Dow, O'Brien, McGovern, Newnes, Casboult,

Youngsters - Stocker, Philp, Ramsey, Honey, O'Dwyer, Phillips, Cottrell

Others/Could be gone - Kennedy/Lang/Betts/MacRaedie/Polson/B. Silvagni/Owies/Goddard/Moore - Assuming lists will need to be cut down

Retirees - Simmo and Kruezer
 

PetterdHoisted

Premiership Player
Apr 27, 2014
4,756
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Richmond
I’m tipping at least four of SOS retreads leaving the club at the end of the season.

Looking back, his talent identification of recycled players has been well below average.
yep, getting a Richmond bloke into the club who could actually pull the trigger on Bambi was a massive step forward for the Blues. SOS would still be there otherwise irrespective of performance, like Hirdy at EFC, near-untouchable by anyone with a long term association with the club.
 

GROTTO

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Jul 5, 2013
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No Sam Petrevski Seton?? (Surely in the best 22 but may be pushed out by Newman, Docherty and Williamson - Then again it will be horses for courses.) So out of best 22 would be J. Silvagni, Dow, O'Brien, McGovern, Newnes, Casboult,

Youngsters - Stocker, Philp, Ramsey, Honey, O'Dwyer, Phillips, Cottrell

Others/Could be gone - Kennedy/Lang/Betts/MacRaedie/Polson/B. Silvagni/Owies/Goddard/Moore - Assuming lists will need to be cut down

Retirees - Simmo and Kruezer
Glory be. 11 years a member on here and this is your 1st post?
 

btdg

Premiership Player
Oct 7, 2005
4,166
4,316
Melbourne
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Carlton
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yep, getting a Richmond bloke into the club who could actually pull the trigger on Bambi was a massive step forward for the Blues. SOS would still be there otherwise irrespective of performance, like Hirdy at EFC, near-untouchable by anyone with a long term association with the club.
I think describing SOS as untouchable is just flagrantly wrong.

He was only at the club for 5 years before leaving. During that time, he was over-ruled by the coach on list management issues multiple times, had a veteran brought it to oversee drafting (because the club felt he was a strong list manager, but not so good with draft picks), and then ultimately moved on, basically of his own accord, because he didn't want to manage the conflict of interest with his own two (and possibly three) sons.

Hardly a Bambi/Hird scenario. He was a high-profile list manager because 12 months after joining the club the team fell into a massive hole and he oversaw one of the most comprehensive 'tear it down and built it up again' situations the league has seen. He also made some fairly high-profile trades and was therefore pretty prominent in trade week.
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
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As you know we take our time at Carlton.
I love though seeing a guy makes his first post after 10+ years joining on. Its hilarious. TBH it was a good post, obviously a backup alias.

I remember seeing one last year from 2007.
 

RobR

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 16, 2014
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Baghdad Central
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I love though seeing a guy makes his first post after 10+ years joining on. Its hilarious. TBH it was a good post, obviously a backup alias.

I remember seeing one last year from 2007.
Yeah probably an account he forgot he had. It took me two years to post but that was because i wasn't to sure of my computer skills, and as it turned out i was right to worry.
 

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chunkylover53

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 13, 2008
6,394
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From Where You'd Rather Be
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Carlton
Yeah Weitering has become a fine player in his own right. Just asking who the next to reach that level will be. Walsh will get there, but he's second-year. There should be others before him.

Williamson/Fisher/McKay/De Koning have polled 10 coaches votes between them. McKay and De Koning look good but might take a while to click as talls. We're still waiting for Curnow to do it consistently.

Carlton has the potential to jump up and I'm not predicting what they'll do next year. Only commenting on progress to date.
Fair enough, as I said, give us Jack Graham.

That's ok we don't need all our kids getting coaches votes, we need them to contribute at AFL level in wins when we don't depend on Cripps, Docherty, Murphy, Simpson and Kreuzer - this is exactly what we did this year.

The failure has been in the development of guys like SPS, Dow, O'Brien, Cuningham who have just not kicked on, but it looks like others have. It's not the perfect year but its a step forward.

Unless we get a midfielder I can't see us improving that much. The gap between Cripps and our next best is enormous. Walsh is a jet but is mostly on the wing and the opposition hasn't put much effort into him yet. Setterfield is slowly building but is defensive-minded.

There's a spot right there for Cuningham, SPS or Dow to take a midfield spot but they're not up to it, which is why we need to chase one and make them compete for a spot.

We need one of the untried guys to bring a bit of X-factor too - Kemp or Honey.
 

RudyBlue

Premiership Player
Nov 11, 2015
4,230
9,087
AFL Club
Carlton
Add a fit C.Curnow, Marchbank and Fisher in that Carlton team and they’ll be much better overall. Cripps and Docherty were playing injured this year. Those two should be better next year.

Another pre-season for Walsh, Setterfield, De Koning and Cunningham. I don’t think they’ll be that bad. There’s only one thing holding Carlton back, inconsistency.
Torched Geelong on their home track for 3 quarters (almost fluffed it in the last) and smashed the dogs. Two very good scalps built on good ball use and forward efficiency.

Good showings against Port and WC too.

Have also had terrible losses against your mob and Adelaide.

I think we have a system that can work, it just requires more ruthlessness when we have momentum and more importantly the ability to lock down against an opposition when they get a run on.

As you pointed out, I too see plenty of upside in the list for 2021, even before potential mature additions like Crouch and Williams etc.
 

La Dispute

La Dispute
Jul 14, 2005
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yep, getting a Richmond bloke into the club who could actually pull the trigger on Bambi was a massive step forward for the Blues. SOS would still be there otherwise irrespective of performance, like Hirdy at EFC, near-untouchable by anyone with a long term association with the club.
Carlton supporters mostly hated it, but it was the right move. SOS has largely dined out on his 2015 draft haul, which to be fair he smashed out of the park, but that can sometimes be the nature of taking a number of top prospects at once. We also got lucky with Geelong and Brisbane being happy to trade reasonably high picks for Henderson and Bell (we then converted one of these picks and another early second into the pick that ended up being Curnow).

He's got 3 reasonably good footballers in SPS, Fisher and Williamson in 2016, he then torched two 1st round picks in 2017, got an absolute gimme in Walsh the next year and then traded down pretty well to get Kemp (and Philp) in 2019.

Overall I think he broke even as a List Manager, but a big part of that was the huge headstart he had with his first draft and being gifted two Pick 1's, which are hard to blow. He has never really had to maintain a list over a long period of time, but from all available evidence he's a bit all over the place with contracts; McGovern's monster contract, Curnow's 800k contract and our 1 million dollar offer to Shiel come to mind. Plus having 2 sons on the list was always going to be difficult to manage going forward. Plus he recruited so many duds with our rookie picks that could have been used on project type players or guys from the State Leagues who deserved a crack. It wasn't until 2018 we actually went the other way and brought in Gibbons and Cottrell who are and projected to be best 22 players for the club.

At the absolute least Liddle is keeping the club accountable at each juncture. SOS' sacking was one obvious example - apparently he has questioned the club about keeping Betts on for next year as well. Keeping in mind it's not especially clear what the correct move is, that is exactly the kind of oversight the club has needed for a long period of time.
 
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La Dispute

La Dispute
Jul 14, 2005
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Torched Geelong on their home track for 3 quarters (almost fluffed it in the last) and smashed the dogs. Two very good scalps built on good ball use and forward efficiency.

Good showings against Port and WC too.

Have also had terrible losses against your mob and Adelaide.

I think we have a system that can work, it just requires more ruthlessness when we have momentum and more importantly the ability to lock down against an opposition when they get a run on.

As you pointed out, I too see plenty of upside in the list for 2021, even before potential mature additions like Crouch and Williams etc.
Our mid-season form was awesome, with some of the best ball movement I had seen from any team against the Bulldogs. We've showed it in patches, but have kind of collapsed into a heap at the end of the year, partly trying to balance out our need to develop with remaining competitive.

From what has been suggested we are going to go hard at bringing in some midfielders at the end of the year, which is going to go a long way in making us competitive long-term. Currently we're a few quality mids short, which probably explains our horrible showings against Hawthorn, Adelaide, Sydney and Melbourne.
 

RudyBlue

Premiership Player
Nov 11, 2015
4,230
9,087
AFL Club
Carlton
Stupid enough to deal in facts? Yeah that's me. 6th oldest team and 7-9 is a fail. I offered Carlton an out via COVID; suggest you take it.


But will their performance be on par with 2020 West Coast and St.Kilda? That's what my post was about. Flags aren't won by building down in age. Carlton's development relative to age is average at very best, below average if you're honest.

Obviously every supporter hopes next year is the one their team takes a leap forward.
At 3-3, after wins against the Dogs and Geelong, I thought we really had a good shot at a spot in the bottom half of the 8. Especially given Simpson and co would be pushing the younger guys to give them one last crack at a finals series.

I guess treading water in terms of ladder position is entirely possible if we project our age profile in the coming years (e.g. Freo and WB of recent years).
 

Ron The Bear

Come on Sydney, come on!
Jul 4, 2006
33,629
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Melbourne
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Richmond
I guess treading water in terms of ladder position is entirely possible if we project our age profile in the coming years (e.g. Freo and WB of recent years).
Think there are some wrong perceptions about the Dogs, sometimes from their own supporters. They fell back to average 2017-18 but have been well above in 2019-20. They're in good shape, just need to fill needs at the bookends to be contenders. And I've got Freo improving in each of the last four years, to almost average in 2020.
 

Gethelred

Brownlow Medallist
May 1, 2016
14,720
28,266
AFL Club
Carlton
On the subject of overpaying for players...
It comes into play later, when Moore, DeGoey, Langdon, Crisp, Adams are a little older, when you keep buying players like Treloar for overs and you wind up needing to buy cheap options to compensate. You're lucky you've still got the remainder of 2010 around, to keep your midfield working whilst the rest develop.

Give it time.
Hmmm...
 

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