Dewnior
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The Run Home 2025 - Project Your Optimism or Pessimism Here
- Thread starter rdhopkins2
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Conceding a few on junk time could really cost us.
Top 8 locked in but to make the 4 we need either Pies or Suns to lose and us to win or we need to beat Brisbane by a decent amount if they don't.
Unlikely but definitely not impossible
Top 8 locked in but to make the 4 we need either Pies or Suns to lose and us to win or we need to beat Brisbane by a decent amount if they don't.
Unlikely but definitely not impossible
At the end of the day we are extremely lucky that by the time we play Brisbane we know exactly what we need to do. There is plenty still to play out here.
The fact that we are a live shot at a double chance is a bonus given we completely squibbed the Cats, Suns, Dockers and Crows games. Win any of those games and three junk time goals don’t matter. Especially when we were up at 3/4 time in three of them.
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I think stick with it. Obviously Gunston's on fire and the others are doing their bits
Yes
There are several ways for us to make it, so I think it is still a reasonable change, assuming we beat brisbane, any of the following happening would have us to top 4:
- Pies lose against Melbourne , unlikely but not out of the question, I think Melbourne are better than their ladder position, we were lucky Gunston had a day out, otherwise we lost a bunch of important stats, and could have been a very close game.
- GC lose against either Port or Essendon. Again unlikely , but Hinkley is the master at getting Port up for emotional games, and Boak's retirement could the emotional leverage he needs to go out a winning in his last game as coach. GC managed to lose to Richmond, so losing to Port is not out of the question. Problem for us is they will likely pick up a big percentage boost against bombers, passing us.
- Geelong lose to both Sydney and Richmond. This seems the least likely scenario. I can see them dropping a game against Sydney, but it is hard to see Richmond beating them. If they do lose both games, they could plummet to 8th spot, and end up doing something like needing to travel to play GWS in the first week in finals. While the least likely way for us to make top 4, this is perhaps the sweetest option
- Pies and GC win all their remaining games but we get a big win against Lions, and one of Pies or GC do not win by enough in their matches to finish ahead of us on percentage. Should none of the first 3 options come through this option remains open right up to the final H&A game of the season, so we at least go into that game knowing what we need for percentage to put us top 4, and this path is the one that is most under out control (while still relying on smaller margin sizes in other games, but not actual upsets).
It is a pity we were not able to put some of the bottom 9 teams to the sword. A few games where we got out to big early leads, and then seemed to put the queue in the rack for the rest of the game have hurt us. Of course those games where we were leading against top 9 sides at the final break only to lose have had a massive impact on where we finish too.
So individually none of those 4 paths looks overly likely, but the fact that 4 paths exist gives us a reasonable chance, as we only need one of them to pay off. All reliant on us beating Brisbane though, and as they showed by their comfortable win in Perth, they still have a good deal of firepower even without Lachie Neale. It is insane that the team that ends up 9th could well be within a single win (and percentage) of third of even second spot if Geelong drop a game.
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To finish above the Pies, we need to beat Brisbane by around 7 - 8 points more than Pies beat Dees. Then it will be up to GC on the Wednesday to try to overtake us and Pies. Will be tight. Reckon win and we finish fifth. Lose and it’s 8th.
Flukey!
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Pies should account for the Dees comfortably next week. They are desperately chasing a win and would have beaten anyone else tonight were the game not in Adelaide.
That's a significantly easier match up than what we have.
That's a significantly easier match up than what we have.
Note that if us, pies and GC win the rest of their games, and we finish above Pies on %, then we have a top 4 spot, and GC percentage then decides if we finish 3rd of 4th (assuming GWS can't bridge the large percentage gap they face to get to the top 4). 3rd means we have a very good chance of staying at the MCG for every finals game. 4th means a trip to adelaide in week 1, and then potentially a trip to GC for a prelim if we don't double-set depending on the GC vs Geelong result, which is a rough road to the GF.
Right now 5th seems most likely if we beat Lions, and 8th if we do not, but as mentioned, a few ways of getting to top 4 if we beat lions, so still have fingers crossed.
earthworms
Club Legend
We have control of whether we make the top 4 or not with the crows win. If we beat brisbane by enough we will make it no matter what, doesn’t matter which teams win or lose their games. it’s all about % (assuming we beat brisbane)
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Personally I think Gunston is on fire BECAUSE the others are doing their bits. But I'd like to see Lewis take a few in his hands instead of bouncing them off his chest.
You weren't listening to David King were you?
The guy had a bad case of verbal diarrhea in the period between the final siren and going into the rooms to sign the song about how we were too reliant on Gunston and only had 6 goal kickers and how he would drop one of the 4 but then wouldn't say who. It got so bad they had to interrupt him to save himself from himself.
Never mind the fact that had we kicked straighter Chol could of been added to that list and Macdonald would of kicked more than one out of his 4 shots. Then there was last week against a top 4 side where we had 9 goal kickers including 9 goals alone from all 4 talls (Gunston 4, Chol 3, Lewis 1, Dear 1).
Yes on the surface it appears we are too Guston focused but that's not a bad thing. He's in red hot form and is a master at his forward craft so why not go to him? But I have 100% confidence that if he was to be out with injury another forward will step up. Personally I can see Lewis doing that as being the focal point of attack was him before injury and he's now had the benefit of building match fitness in the weeks he's been back.
My favorite part of David King atm is we are too reliant on Gunston and can’t progress very far, but Geelong are going to win the flag because of Jeremy Cameron.
He’s now in satire territory. Changes tact every Monday and then throws out the I told you so like he knew it all along. Horrible.
It's not just the 'three junk time goals'.
We're a bloody good side, playing finals for the second time in a row after a dry patch, which is fabulous. But we haven't displayed the ruthlessness generally required of premiership sides. In multiple games in the latter part of this season we've had the chance to put our opposition to the sword and really boost our percentage, putting us right in the mix for a top four finish (we're currently percentage out of third, with Geelong having a potentially tricky game today). But we haven't, we've done what we had to do and then taken the foot off the gas and cruised to a regulation 3-6 goal victory.
We can still find that killer instinct, but we need to find it soon.
Hawkers Hero
Club Legend
One thing for sure, we should be hoping for a GC loss in the final two games - if we lose to Brisbane then we are almost certainly 8th and odds are our finals journey goes through Metricon (and knowing the AFL it will be a night game)
Given our record there, I would be going in with pretty low expectations.
Given our record there, I would be going in with pretty low expectations.
I don’t think this team is the finished article. We still lack genuine a genuine A-grader through the middle, have been without our best and second best players for 5 (?) and 16 weeks. Couple that with the fact that we played half our season without two of our best talls and it’s the first year that we’ve had Battle and Barass and this is still a building year.
The fact that we are still 15-7 and have a 123% (the fifth best in the AFL) says more about coaching and our system. We could have easily gone to water after the increased scrutiny from last year — let’s see how Adelaide deal with that next year.
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Maybe, maybe not. There will be unexpected results next week, that’s a given. One of those may well be our game given Brisbane’s patchy form at home this year. Gunston is the key. Last time he was held goalless for the only time this year and because of his importance to team now, he’ll either need greater output himself or act as a decoy to allow our other key forwards a central role. But this game is a real 50/50 proposition.
Friday night is big.
We will need our Melbourne and Port scarves
We are paying 3.50 for top 4 FYI which gives us around 30% chance
We will need our Melbourne and Port scarves
We are paying 3.50 for top 4 FYI which gives us around 30% chance
Stick with 4
1. Lewis is playing the old school chf role which sees him push right up the ground, which opens up the forward line as no opponent is going to let him roam on his own.
2. Calsher is not a traditional tall. Barely touches a pack, instead reads the play like a small. He's also tackling too
3. Gunston is actually leading. If he doesnt get the ball he's taken his direct opponent away from the contest
4. Chol is a bit hit and miss, but he's providing match-up headaches. Even when not playing well, he is still having a defender go to him
Our last few weeks the 4 tall set up has prevented opponents from zoning
Should also mention that he provides great support to Meek in the Ruck when needed so he doesn't always have to be played forward.
It hasn't always worked out but I love what he brings to a Ruck contest in being able to win the ball outright just with pure agility.
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The Seaword
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My optimism hat says win against bris we are top 4. Hopefully 4th and play Adelaide. Learn from our mistakes from a few weeks ago and we have a home prelim.
But my pessimism beanie says 8th after losing to the lions, and we play GC away. Then mad Monday.
But my pessimism beanie says 8th after losing to the lions, and we play GC away. Then mad Monday.
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