The Run Home 2025 - Project Your Optimism or Pessimism Here

[Simon Crawshay]

There are several ways for us to make it, so I think it is still a reasonable change, assuming we beat brisbane, any of the following happening would have us to top 4:

• Pies lose against Melbourne , unlikely but not out of the question, I think Melbourne are better than their ladder position, we were lucky Gunston had a day out, otherwise we lost a bunch of important stats, and could have been a very close game.
• GC lose against either Port or Essendon. Again unlikely , but Hinkley is the master at getting Port up for emotional games, and Boak's retirement could the emotional leverage he needs to go out a winning in his last game as coach. GC managed to lose to Richmond, so losing to Port is not out of the question. Problem for us is they will likely pick up a big percentage boost against bombers, passing us.
• Geelong lose to both Sydney and Richmond. This seems the least likely scenario. I can see them dropping a game against Sydney, but it is hard to see Richmond beating them. If they do lose both games, they could plummet to 8th spot, and end up doing something like needing to travel to play GWS in the first week in finals. While the least likely way for us to make top 4, this is perhaps the sweetest option
• Pies and GC win all their remaining games but we get a big win against Lions, and one of Pies or GC do not win by enough in their matches to finish ahead of us on percentage. Should none of the first 3 options come through this option remains open right up to the final H&A game of the season, so we at least go into that game knowing what we need for percentage to put us top 4, and this path is the one that is most under out control (while still relying on smaller margin sizes in other games, but not actual upsets).

It is a pity we were not able to put some of the bottom 9 teams to the sword. A few games where we got out to big early leads, and then seemed to put the queue in the rack for the rest of the game have hurt us. Of course those games where were leading against top 9 sides at the final break only to lose have had a massive impact on where we finish too.

So individually none of those 4 paths looks overly likely, but the fact that 4 paths exist gives us a reasonable chance, as we only need one of them to pay off. All reliant on us beating Brisbane though, and as they showed by their comfortable win in Perth, they still have a good deal of firepower even without Lachie Neale. It is insane that the team that ends up 9th could well be within a single win (and percentage) of third of even second spot if Geelong drop a game.

Option 3 please

 

[bamp]

He’s now in satire territory. Changes tact every Monday and then throws out the I told you so like he knew it all along. Horrible.

I think David King's views make much more sense if you think of him as more as a performance artist than anything else.

 

[CD Xbow]

I think David King's views make much more sense if you think of him as more as a performance artist than anything else.

A rather poor performance artist in that case.

 

[Tall poppy Syndrome]

I think David King's views make much more sense if you think of him as more as a performance artist than anything else.

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

To finish above the Pies, we need to beat Brisbane by around 7 - 8 points more than Pies beat Dees. Then it will be up to GC on the Wednesday to try to overtake us and Pies. Will be tight. Reckon win and we finish fifth. Lose and it’s 8th.

I think you are right, unfortunately

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

 

[Gene Simmons]

The way Pies are wobbling, I think Melbourne could give them a shake.
And/or
Hopefully Port get inspired by Boak & Hinkley's send off and can upset the Suns.

We just need to beat Lions and more than likely we'll finish top 4.

 

[Come back Cyril]

Maybe, maybe not. There will be unexpected results next week, that’s a given. One of those may well be our game given Brisbane’s patchy form at home this year. Gunston is the key. Last time he was held goalless for the only time this year and because of his importance to team now, he’ll either need greater output himself or act as a decoy to allow our other key forwards a central role. But this game is a real 50/50 proposition.

I'd like to think so, but I fear Brisbane will be very hard to beat. They rarely lose the games that matter and have the most talented mids/runners in the AFL. They are the only team I genuinely fear are better than us at the moment.

 

[badgrill]

This is why you don't concede 3 late goals when it's so tight. Take percentage out of the equation. They lose and stay ahead of us. Let this be a lesson in future. I'll probably end up with egg on my face when we beat Brisbane but alot has to go right for us to get top 4 now.

And if those goals had happened say in the second quarter instead? What about the other goals we "gave up" earlier in the match?

 

[badgrill]

At the end of the day we are extremely lucky that by the time we play Brisbane we know exactly what we need to do. There is plenty still to play out here.

The fact that we are a live shot at a double chance is a bonus given we completely squibbed the Cats, Suns, Dockers and Crows games. Win any of those games and three junk time goals don’t matter. Especially when we were up at 3/4 time in three of them.

This x 1000%

 

[Simon Crawshay]

I'd like to think so, but I fear Brisbane will be very hard to beat. They rarely lose the games that matter and have the most talented mids/runners in the AFL. They are the only team I genuinely fear are better than us at the moment.

Moat other teams in it have obvious weaknesses (Collingwood's forward line, Doggies backline, etc) but the Lions are pretty much the complete package across the field.

What will be working against them is it's very hard to win it two years in a row.

Be a ripper game next Sunday either way.

 

[SA HAWK]

Moat other teams in it have obvious weaknesses (Collingwood's forward line, Doggies backline, etc) but the Lions are pretty much the complete package across the field.

What will be working against them is it's very hard to win it two years in a row.

Be a ripper game next Sunday either way.

I think with their injuries they have a few weaknesses backline looks vulnerable to me their forward line looks a little average on paper also.

Powerful midfield.

Need to play someone on Zorko don't just let him run riot.

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

Could be a world where we finish 8th and have a home final. Would require Gold Coast to have two 40 point wins and Collingwood a 20 point win.
We lose and then finish 8th. Collingwood finish 5th and then home final.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Can anyone else smell an away elimination final against GWS?

Worst possible result (pessimistic much)

Footy is funny game. Let's hope for some chaos in the last round.

A home elimination final against GWS is my dream, because I'd be a chance at getting tickets. Never seen a live final before, let alone a Hawks one.

 

[Randy Campbell]

I reckon the boys knew it too, very subdued celebrations post match. Now is not the time to put the cue in the rack late in a game when everything is so close with teams around you. It certainly felt like that watching from the ground. Don't just be happy to make it, be emphatic while doing it. Footy is mental as well as physical.

I liked the lullaby version of the song.

Kids always provide the best lessons in emotional control.

 

[StackedHunch]

Could be a world where we finish 8th and have a home final. Would require Gold Coast to have two 40 point wins and Collingwood a 20 point win.
We lose and then finish 8th. Collingwood finish 5th and then home final.

TBH more than a remote possibility, given Essendon's disarray (and you never know if Port will bother showing up), and Melbourne's competitiveness. Of course, that also might mean just the one away final (GC or Adelaide semi), with a home prelim against the Cats, which we would go into well in contention.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

TBH not a remote possibility, given Essendon's disarray (and you never know if Port will bother showing up), and Melbourne's competitiveness. Of course, that also might mean just the one away final (GC or Adelaide semi), with a home prelim against the Cats, which we would go into well in contention.

Collingwood vs Hawks is shortening as a potential EF. Suns win there last 2 by enough it won't matter if Collingwood comfortably beat Melbourne. They will finish 5th. We lose we finish 8th unless GWS also lose which is unlikely.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Dogs vs GWS will be the other EF IMO.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

My optimism hat says win against bris we are top 4. Hopefully 4th and play Adelaide. Learn from our mistakes from a few weeks ago and we have a home prelim.

But my pessimism beanie says 8th after losing to the lions, and we play GC away. Then mad Monday.

Pies vs Hawks more likely. Suns are close enough percentage wise to make up the ground needed with 2 solid wins.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

To finish above the Pies, we need to beat Brisbane by around 7 - 8 points more than Pies beat Dees. Then it will be up to GC on the Wednesday to try to overtake us and Pies. Will be tight. Reckon win and we finish fifth. Lose and it’s 8th.

Most likely scenario, I think we will run the Lions close and have a very competitive loss 2-3 goals which won't harm our resolve and confidence going into finals l. More than capable of winning but I reckon of all the teams in the 8 The Lions best is better than ours. Will be the best win of the year if we pull it off because they need to win to have a chance at a home final or we go ahead of them so expect them at their best.

 

[earthworms]

Stick with 4

1. Lewis is playing the old school chf role which sees him push right up the ground, which opens up the forward line as no opponent is going to let him roam on his own.

2. Calsher is not a traditional tall. Barely touches a pack, instead reads the play like a small. He's also tackling too

3. Gunston is actually leading. If he doesnt get the ball he's taken his direct opponent away from the contest

4. Chol is a bit hit and miss, but he's providing match-up headaches. Even when not playing well, he is still having a defender go to him

Our last few weeks the 4 tall set up has prevented opponents from zoning

everything else is spot on but isn't calsher dear a pack marker who regularly takes hangers?

 

[Mitchell Madness]

everything else is spot on but isn't calsher dear a pack marker who regularly takes hangers?

Not the traditional pack marker. He doesn't crash packs and take bodies, thats what i was getting at

 

[Dewnior]

A home elimination final against GWS is my dream, because I'd be a chance at getting tickets. Never seen a live final before, let alone a Hawks one.

Yeah I don't like your dream very much. My dream is to finish top 4.

You can get tickets for the Prelim.

 

[Gut Runner]

I think with their injuries they have a few weaknesses backline looks vulnerable to me their forward line looks a little average on paper also.

Powerful midfield.

Need to play someone on Zorko don't just let him run riot.

Sam Day and Fort look vulnerable

 

[Gut Runner]

Most likely scenario, I think we will run the Lions close and have a very competitive loss 2-3 goals which won't harm our resolve and confidence going into finals l. More than capable of winning but I reckon of all the teams in the 8 The Lions best is better than ours. Will be the best win of the year if we pull it off because they need to win to have a chance at a home final or we go ahead of them so expect them at their best.

Until we beat an interstate side away we are just making up the numbers. Prove that you are good enough hawks.