Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[Sparkle]

Found my ladder prediction after I predicted every match back in March, and chucked it into the 'Rate My Ladder' feature on Squiggle (nice addition by the way). Fair to say I was a little off

 

[The_torpedo]

Found my ladder prediction after I predicted every match back in March, and chucked it into the 'Rate My Ladder' feature on Squiggle (nice addition by the way). Fair to say I was a little off

View attachment 734164

I'm not much better: https://squiggle.com.au/rate-my-ladder/?q=2019nkqiaderjmplgbofch

 

[Final Siren]

It’s based purely on number of games played there over a certain period (don’t know what that period is exactly). Would come pretty damn close to zero when two tenants meet I’d say. Last night was +1.7pts to Collingwood and Essendon play most home games at Etihad.

Yep, this is correct. Squiggle looks at 3 previous years plus the current year.

Different models do HGA in different ways. It's hard to know who's right, since they usually agree within a handful of points, which is too small to test rigorously.

So we can be confident that an HGA estimate for a particular match is about right - within a goal, for most matches - but we can't really be sure whether it should be a couple of points higher or lower.

 

[Final Siren]

I'm not much better: https://squiggle.com.au/rate-my-ladder/?q=2019nkqiaderjmplgbofch

You both beat Damien Barrett!

https://squiggle.com.au/rate-my-ladder/?experts=1

Predicting ladders is hard, but even so, Barrett's ladder is terrible. It's the worst one I've seen on the internet. He managed to get only 4 finalists, had Fremantle as his big improver, and tipped Adelaide to take out the minor premiership, along with the more common misses like having Melbourne far too high and Brisbane far too low.

If you closed your eyes and randomly placed teams into ladder positions, you would do better than Barrett 10% of the time.

 

[hk89]

Yep, this is correct. Squiggle looks at 3 previous years plus the current year.

Different models do HGA in different ways. It's hard to know who's right, since they usually agree within a handful of points, which is too small to test rigorously.

So we can be confident that an HGA estimate for a particular match is about right - within a goal, for most matches - but we can't really be sure whether it should be a couple of points higher or lower.

Have you done any modelling on home crowd sizes vs pure HGA? I often wonder how much of the HGA is down to local knowledge of the ground vs the impact of the crowd support on the local team (and the umpires). Probably not that useful for predictive modelling given you don't the crowd ahead of time, but might be interesting to know if there is a pure crowd size effect (and to a degree crowd sizes are probably somewhat predictable, so might not have zero predictive value, although probably not enough to be practically useful).

 

[Final Siren]

Who is the best squiggle team to not make finals? Hawthorn surely up there this year.
GWS game helped a bit

Mmm, I may tweak this in retrospect because I think the lower scoring has created a pretty significant distortion.

But anyway, Geelong 1993 are the best team to not make finals -- finished Home & Away as the top-rated team in an absolute car crash season of footy.

 

[Final Siren]

Have you done any modelling on home crowd sizes vs pure HGA? I often wonder how much of the HGA is down to local knowledge of the ground vs the impact of the crowd support on the local team (and the umpires). Probably not that useful for predictive modelling given you don't the crowd ahead of time, but might be interesting to know if there is a pure crowd size effect (and to a degree crowd sizes are probably somewhat predictable, so might not have zero predictive value, although probably not enough to be practically useful).

I haven't tried it since, as you say, it's not very helpful for prediction as you don't know crowd sizes in advance. But yes, I do believe from what I've read that crowd size (& noise/passion) is likely to be a very significant factor - even more important than things like travel & ground familiarity.

 

[caloschwaby]

Not too bad considering I had Melbourne in my Top 4. LOL
Got 4 teams exactly right, including Collingwood, so I'd like to think I'm somewhat of a genius?

Spoiler: Proof of my prediction :)

 

[caloschwaby]

Also did another one closer to the season which was less accurate (can't remember if I was taking the piss on this one as I had Collingwood winning the GF, not sure)

Spoiler: Proof of my prediction :)

 

[Rotayjay]

Anyone who gets a B or an A at predicting the ladder in March ... you deserve a beer

 

[Falconx]

Was just mashing the random button a bunch and this one came up.

Spoiler

Only one real outlier in the Lions, but other than that rest are fairly accurate.

 

[caloschwaby]

Anyone who gets a B or an A at predicting the ladder in March ... you deserve a beer

I'll take my beer for a C

 

[The_torpedo]

Final Siren did any experts pick Brisbane in the finals?

 

[Final Siren]

Final Siren did any experts pick Brisbane in the finals?

Paul Bastin from AFL.com.au had Brisbane 8th. His is the best preseason ladder by a human expert.

On Squiggle Rate My Ladder: https://squiggle.com.au/rate-my-ladder/?q=2019ndakqigbelmjfproch

His other preseason predictions turned out well, too: https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-03-13/crystal-ball-aflcomaus-2019-season-predictions

 

[Xtreme]

The Squiggle's forecast has already eliminated Essendon!!

 

[GROTTO]

Looking forward to the Squiggle this weekend.

 

[richoatthedisco]

Squiggle is asleep at the wheel.

 

[Pessimistic]

If you call hawthorn and geelong outliers (so few flags won on the defensive flank) a collingwood richmond grand final sounds likely.

But heres a question. Who deserves top spot ie the home strip?

 

[Pessimistic]

The Squiggle's forecast has already eliminated Essendon!!

Has a finalist been so poor in squiggle?

Also compare 2016 and 2019. 2016 was a close finals because so many team in premiership zone. 2019 close because they arent in the zone at all

 

[HTT]

Quite the contrast between Hawthorn (2nd on the squiggle, 9th IRL) and Essendon (16th on the squiggle, 8th IRL).

 

[GROTTO]

Squiggle is on holidays?

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Quite the contrast between Hawthorn (2nd on the squiggle, 9th IRL) and Essendon (16th on the squiggle, 8th IRL).

A little bias, but by my eyes Squiggle was right.

 

[HTT]

A little bias, but by my eyes Squiggle was right.

Certainly back end of the year your form was on par with the best.

 

[Pessimistic]

Probably 85% of the hawks squiggle move from the bowels of the peleton to its final place came from the two wins over GWS

 

[Corkintheocean]

For curiousities sake, is the model able to chart West Coast games not involving Naitanui vs West Coast with Naitanui over say the last three seasons?