The Unofficial List Management thread... :-)

[Thaihawk]

OK - This is for those debating whether or not we should trade players for high draft picks to rebuild our list.

As promised I have looked at the five national drafts between 2008 - 2012, which includes those 2010 & 2011 heavily subsidized towards the new clubs.

2008:

1. Players who warranted top picks and are still with their original clubs:
Nic Nitanui, Stephen Hill, Hamish Hartlett, Michael Hurley,Daniel Rich, Jack Ziebell = 60%

2. Players who changed clubs:
Chris Yarran, Ty Vickery, Phil Davis. = 30%

That leaves Jack Watts, I'll leave him up to your individual opinion.

2009:

1. Still with original clubs:
Dustin Martin, Ben Cunnington: =20%

2. In my opinion very expensive as a top 10 pick, but still with original club.
Jack Trengrove, Gary Rohan, Brad Shepherd: = 30%

3. Wasted picks:
Anthony Moribito, John Butcher, Jordan Gysberts, Kane Lucas. = 40%

That leaves Tom Scully - well worth top pick, pity Melbourne couldn't hold him. GWS had enough assistance without their help.

2010. A draft aimed at getting as many top juniors in the country to the Gold Coast:

1. Worthy top ten picks still at original club.

David Swallow, Andrew Gaff, Sam Day, Dyson Heppell. = 40%

2. Players who have moved on.
Harley Bennell, Jared Polec, Josh Caddy, Dion Prestia, Daniel Corringe. = 50%

That leaves Reece Conca, a B grader at best.

2011

1. Players still with original clubs:
John Patton, Steven Coniglio, Matt Buntine, Chad Wingard, Nich Haynes, Adam Tomlinson. = 60%

2. Players with other clubs:
Dom Tyson, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Billy Longer, Liam Sumner. = 40%

2012

1. A grade players still with original clubs:
Lauchie Whitfield, Jake Stringer, Jackson Macrae, Ollie Wines, Joe Daniher. = 50%

2 Players who have moved on:
Jono O'Rourke, Lauchie Plowman, Jimmy Toumpas. = 30%

Leaving Sam Mayes and Nick Vlastuin, not quite A grade in my view.

Summing up - these are entirely the views of the author, and no correspondence will even be read:

1. Top ten picks are overrated. While clubs were fighting to draft the country's top talent, we were quietly selecting players from other clubs and offering them to be part of history, some of whom were struggling to get a senior game each week, but we picked them as we had a role for them at our club.

 

[Hodginator]

TOB has re-signed.

 

[Thaihawk]

I actually have done something similar before. Here's a list of players drafted 2008 - 2013. I've included the first round for each year.

1: Watts, Scully, Swallow, Patton, Whitfield, Boyd
2: Naitanui, Trengove, Bennell, Coniglio, O'Rourke, Kelly
3: Hill, Martin, Day, Tyson, Plowman, Billings
4: Harlett, Morabito, Gaff, Hoskin-Elliott, Toumpas, Bontempelli
5: Hurley, Cunnington, Polec, Buntine, Stringer, Kolodjashnij
6: Yarran, Rohan, Conca, Wingard, Macrae, Scharenberg
7: Rich, Shepperd, Caddy, Haynes, Wines, Aish
8: Vickery, Butcher, Heppell, Longer, Mayes, McDonald
9: Ziebell, Moore, Prestia, Tomlinson, Vlastuin, Salem
10: Davis, Melksham, Gorringe, Sumner, Daniher (F/S), Freeman
11: Sidebottom, Gysberts, Lynch, Greene, Menzel, Sheed
12: Johnston, Lucas, Cook, Docherty, Jaksch, Lennon
13: Lynch, Talia, Tape, Adams, Lonergan, Cripps
14: Cordy (F/S), Jetta, B Smith, D Smith, Corr, McCarthy
15: Brown, Howard, Smedts, Ellis, Garner, Jones
16: Schoenmakers, Pittard, B Jacobs, Sheridan, Thurlow, Lang
17: Blease, Menzel, Atley, C Smith, Simpson, Apeness
18: Shuey, Tapscott, Watson, McKenzie, Grundy, Dunstan

So, from that 6 years of first round picks, a total of 108 players:
32 are either duds, career ended prematurely by injury, or realised a far lower return than their draft pick warrants. 20 of these were after pick 10
17 I have the jury out on
59 have gone on to have acceptable careers, or are looking like they will. That's a strik rate of 55%, rising to 60% in the first 10

Horrible odds in my opinion

It really is a gamble, as we well know from first hand experience.

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

OK - This is for those debating whether or not we should trade players for high draft picks to rebuild our list.

As promised I have looked at the five national drafts between 2008 - 2012, which includes those 2010 & 2011 heavily subsidized towards the new clubs.

2008:

1. Players who warranted top picks and are still with their original clubs:
Nic Nitanui, Stephen Hill, Hamish Hartlett, Michael Hurley,Daniel Rich, Jack Ziebell = 60%

2. Players who changed clubs:
Chris Yarran, Ty Vickery, Phil Davis. = 30%

That leaves Jack Watts, I'll leave him up to your individual opinion.

2009:

1. Still with original clubs:
Dustin Martin, Ben Cunnington: =20%

2. In my opinion very expensive as a top 10 pick, but still with original club.
Jack Trengrove, Gary Rohan, Brad Shepherd: = 30%

3. Wasted picks:
Anthony Moribito, John Butcher, Jordan Gysberts, Kane Lucas. = 40%

That leaves Tom Scully - well worth top pick, pity Melbourne couldn't hold him. GWS had enough assistance without their help.

2010. A draft aimed at getting as many top juniors in the country to the Gold Coast:

1. Worthy top ten picks still at original club.

David Swallow, Andrew Gaff, Sam Day, Dyson Heppell. = 40%

2. Players who have moved on.
Harley Bennell, Jared Polec, Josh Caddy, Dion Prestia, Daniel Corringe. = 50%

That leaves Reece Conca, a B grader at best.

2011

1. Players still with original clubs:
John Patton, Steven Coniglio, Matt Buntine, Chad Wingard, Nich Haynes, Adam Tomlinson. = 60%

2. Players with other clubs:
Dom Tyson, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Billy Longer, Liam Sumner. = 40%

2012

1. A grade players still with original clubs:
Lauchie Whitfield, Jake Stringer, Jackson Macrae, Ollie Wines, Joe Daniher. = 50%

2 Players who have moved on:
Jono O'Rourke, Lauchie Plowman, Jimmy Toumpas. = 30%

Leaving Sam Mayes and Nick Vlastuin, not quite A grade in my view.

Summing up - these are entirely the views of the author, and no correspondence will even be read:

1. Top ten picks are overrated. While clubs were fighting to draft the country's top talent, we were quietly selecting players from other clubs and offering them to be part of history, some of whom were struggling to get a senior game each week, but we picked them as we had a role for them at our club.

Gresat work Thaihawk.

I think this highlights a few things:

1) A top ten pick won't necessarily make it - over 50% don't become A graders.

2) For whatever reason, many leave clubs (around 40%), particularly if they are not from your home state.

 

[Mrzohs]

I actually have done something similar before. Here's a list of players drafted 2008 - 2013. I've included the first round for each year.

So, from that 6 years of first round picks, a total of 108 players:
32 are either duds, career ended prematurely by injury, or realised a far lower return than their draft pick warrants. 20 of these were after pick 10
17 I have the jury out on
59 have gone on to have acceptable careers, or are looking like they will. That's a strik rate of 55%, rising to 60% in the first 10

Horrible odds in my opinion

100% my point in my early post. i think you will also find if look at picks 20-50 the strike rate is very similar to that of the top 20 its a lottery.
blokes can dominate juniours that have already reached there peak. 16,17 yo have not developed.
alot also depends on the club and there system they are drafted into.

 

[WWSD]

Is James Cousins likely to be elevated onto the senior list for next year? If he's put on the senior list, suddenly we have the midfield depth we didn't have this year with O'Rourke, Lovell and Cousins. Then you've got Glass playing on the wing next year.

 

[Billyc]

An interesting extension of the discussion would be players who clubs have traded first round picks for.

 

[Holy Rioli]

Is James Cousins likely to be elevated onto the senior list for next year? If he's put on the senior list, suddenly we have the midfield depth we didn't have this year with O'Rourke, Lovell and Cousins. Then you've got Glass playing on the wing next year.

No. He recently signed a 2 year rookie extension. It is a bit of a moot point though, all Cat A rookies will be eligible for senior selection next year without having to be elevated to the senior list.

 

[Luv_our_club]

OK - This is for those debating whether or not we should trade players for high draft picks to rebuild our list.

As promised I have looked at the five national drafts between 2008 - 2012, which includes those 2010 & 2011 heavily subsidized towards the new clubs.

2008:

1. Players who warranted top picks and are still with their original clubs:
Nic Nitanui, Stephen Hill, Hamish Hartlett, Michael Hurley,Daniel Rich, Jack Ziebell = 60%

2. Players who changed clubs:
Chris Yarran, Ty Vickery, Phil Davis. = 30%

That leaves Jack Watts, I'll leave him up to your individual opinion.

2009:

1. Still with original clubs:
Dustin Martin, Ben Cunnington: =20%

2. In my opinion very expensive as a top 10 pick, but still with original club.
Jack Trengrove, Gary Rohan, Brad Shepherd: = 30%

3. Wasted picks:
Anthony Moribito, John Butcher, Jordan Gysberts, Kane Lucas. = 40%

That leaves Tom Scully - well worth top pick, pity Melbourne couldn't hold him. GWS had enough assistance without their help.

2010. A draft aimed at getting as many top juniors in the country to the Gold Coast:

1. Worthy top ten picks still at original club.

David Swallow, Andrew Gaff, Sam Day, Dyson Heppell. = 40%

2. Players who have moved on.
Harley Bennell, Jared Polec, Josh Caddy, Dion Prestia, Daniel Corringe. = 50%

That leaves Reece Conca, a B grader at best.

2011

1. Players still with original clubs:
John Patton, Steven Coniglio, Matt Buntine, Chad Wingard, Nich Haynes, Adam Tomlinson. = 60%

2. Players with other clubs:
Dom Tyson, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Billy Longer, Liam Sumner. = 40%

2012

1. A grade players still with original clubs:
Lauchie Whitfield, Jake Stringer, Jackson Macrae, Ollie Wines, Joe Daniher. = 50%

2 Players who have moved on:
Jono O'Rourke, Lauchie Plowman, Jimmy Toumpas. = 30%

Leaving Sam Mayes and Nick Vlastuin, not quite A grade in my view.

Summing up - these are entirely the views of the author, and no correspondence will even be read:

1. Top ten picks are overrated. While clubs were fighting to draft the country's top talent, we were quietly selecting players from other clubs and offering them to be part of history, some of whom were struggling to get a senior game each week, but we picked them as we had a role for them at our club.

This post impressed me with the truth that you need 3 top ten picks in one good year to do the kind of rebuild via-draft that we did in 2004. ala Ruffy, Buddy, Lewis.

And the other benefit of that is multiple draftees of the same vintage are more likely to stay together to build, like Melbourne's current crop.

Without priority picks, I don't think Hawthorn will be in that position or would want to.

 

[flinchfree]

Is James Cousins likely to be elevated onto the senior list for next year? If he's put on the senior list, suddenly we have the midfield depth we didn't have this year with O'Rourke, Lovell and Cousins. Then you've got Glass playing on the wing next year.

I like Cousins and Lovell, and depth is all well and good.
Class is what we need an injection of.
A grade.
Then you can sprinkle liberally with depth and everyone looks better.

 

[Luv_our_club]

Sicily has RE-SIGNED!!!!!

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

Is James Cousins likely to be elevated onto the senior list for next year? If he's put on the senior list, suddenly we have the midfield depth we didn't have this year with O'Rourke, Lovell and Cousins. Then you've got Glass playing on the wing next year.

Expect Glass will continue across half back for a while yet. I am not sure we should upgrade Cousins just yet.

 

[Mitchell54]

Serious question.

Who would you rather have on the list at 500k.

Vickery or Tippett?

Perhaps we could do a straight swap with Sydney.

Nah. No dickheads policy applies. Vickery is a hopeless footballer but at least he is sane

 

[Mitchell54]

I think you definitely delist Willsmore, probably Miles also. We have Hodge, Gibson who will retire, Surman who already has and Fitzpatrick who probably will.

I think Whitecross may end up at Brisbane, Puopolo will end up elsewhere - add to that a player or two like Stratton, he would net us a decent pick. You're having a laugh if you think we get rid of Frawley, he's our only experienced and viable 1v1 key defender. Same with Vickery, we definitely lay in that bed now we've made it.

Breust won't want to go, he is contracted; but Schoenmakers, Duryea may be encouraged to explore free agency.

I think we're crazy if we trade either Frawley or Stratton. Need Frawley to take on the likes of Hawkins & Kennedy. Need Stratton because did you watch the Dangerfield show against us?

 

[Mitchell54]

I think that depends on the quality of the draft and what you mean by short cuts.

If you mean Vickeries and Hendersons vs Burtons, Hardwicks and Sicilies, I agree.

If you means O'Mearas, Mitchells and Gunstons vs the Miles' and Willsmores, I disagree...

I liked the pick up from Henderson and he is required to keep our competitive edge.
Won't be in our next premiership but we don't want to be bottoming out as we want people to come here expecting and getting success

 

[JoeHawk]

So are we safe to assume Burgoyne plays 2018? God I hope so. With Hodgey and Gibbo now gone, his seniority will be needed and he still shows class, poise and pace.

 

[Death Cab]

The only question with Silk is whether he'll go on into 2019/2020. 2018 is a given right?


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[Dewnior]

Did I hear Ralphy say last night Schoey has agreed to a 1 year contract?

 

[Death Cab]

Wright has shown he can do anything with low draft picks. He needs a year to throw as many darts at the board as possible and he could unearth another 5+ good players for us. If you don't have good darts (top 5 picks), you just needs lots of 'em.

I vote for another significant list turnover.

Gone: Hodge, Gibbo, Fitzmagic, Surman.

We usually bring 2+ in through trade/FA. I reckon we move another 8 players off the list, which would give Wrighty 10 darts to work with.

We have some kids who look like genuine talents that you would want to pencil in for our next dynasty.

Cousins, Hardwick, Morrison, Glass, Howe, Brand. Burton and Sic are givens, hopefully TOB too. JOM and Titch obviously!

There's a tier we need to see more of, and you hope 2-3 of these might also make it:
JOR, Lovell, Pitts, Stewart, Heatherly, Lewis, Hanrahan, Nash, Miles (doubtful, but contracted), Willsmore (seen enough? delist?)

We need to move some mid tier players on - I would literally take anything for them. The following have had long enough in the system and some have been overtaken by 19 year olds:

Whitecross, Durea, Shoey, Langford, Hartung, Vickery (contracted, but I'd still delist)...

We then have our premiership heroes. Hopefully some can be part of a flag tilt in their twilight years, but as a demographic they don't fit with the rest of our list. Ideally, we move on another 2-3 from this group (and get some decent trade value).

My dream is that we bring in Lever and trade Frawley and Stratton. Don't shoot me. At most, you really only want to carry one stopper in the backline who doesn't provide drive.

Poppy to GWS as a piece that helps us land Hopper.

So much movement would make top 4 and a tilt next year hard (although with the evenness of the comp, who knows!). Could set us up for a long time though...





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[PhatHQ]

I have liked Shoey for a while & sat in the positive corner but....
He is not a KPP. If he has room to move & gets a jump at the ball he is ok; yes that GF was good.
He just flat out doesn't have the strength or the height for the long bomb tactics.
Unless the game plan changes he is depth only & if Gunston is moved back to the forward line there is no room for him.
I honestly think he is a better CHF than a deep forward & that is the only position I can see him holding & Tob plays the flank or deep with Rough.

 

[burner1]

So shoey, burgs, TOB and Sicily have signed.

I reckon 2 or more of Puopolo, Stratton, Birchall, maybe Gunston will be traded out for a "retirement" contract. Langers could also go.

We need some picks. If we could engineer say Baltic, a young gws mid (hopper/Kennedy), maybe Mckenzie from suns, a FA (Rockliff?) plus still give GW some picks to play with would be a great offseason. I'd also like us to find a developing tall - not sure who is on radar?

 

[Leather Poisoning]

Does anyone have the patience or diligence to show our list ins and outs for the last five years?

From memory we always lose/move on at least 1 or 2 best 22 players. And often lose an additional player to the opposition (Hill, Suckling, Anderson, Savage and probably a few others).

We've signed up most of the young crew so they won't be used as trade chips.

Really hard to know what we'll do given we have Rioli, Frawley, Stratton Birchall and Ceglar available for next year.

Thinking about how our club usually acts I think we will:
1. Trade in a player. If we're in the race for Lever then I'm sure we'll go hard, otherwise I think we'll try and crowbar someone off the GWS list.

2. Bring in a free agent. There aren't many left and I don't think we'll get someone just for the sake of it. If we don't then go back to step one and double it.

3. Bring in a senior player from somewhere for the purpose of depth and experience. (Have done this many times in Clarko's reign with mixed results: Dew, Bruce, Guerra, Henderson, Skipper, Fitzy, Spangher and probably a bunch of others I can't remember).

4. Surprise trade! There's always a surprise. Wrighty will somehow swap a bunch of late picks for another bunch of late picks and a player. This is where the moneyball trades happen.

 

[JoeHawk]

So shoey, burgs, TOB and Sicily have signed.

I reckon 2 or more of Puopolo, Stratton, Birchall, maybe Gunston will be traded out for a "retirement" contract. Langers could also go.

We need some picks. If we could engineer say Baltic, a young gws mid (hopper/Kennedy), maybe Mckenzie from suns, a FA (Rockliff?) plus still give GW some picks to play with would be a great offseason. I'd also like us to find a developing tall - not sure who is on radar?

Gunston??? No bloody way. He's 25!!! So trade him for what....some young kid who might turn out to be as good as .......Gunston? Or most likely not?

And Birchall still has heaps to offer. You can't just get rid of older players for the sake of it. They're needed to guide the younger brigade. And Frawley is needed at least for another year to player against the bigger bodied players. Although Stratton is a more complicated. Had a poor start then got injured. And the younger guys are looking sharp. Of the above I think Stratton and perhaps Poppy could be likely to go.
Langers is also a tough call. A genuine tough nut but can't kick. But I do recall Roughy had a bad patch early in his career and got it right. So there is hope.

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

So shoey, burgs, TOB and Sicily have signed.

I reckon 2 or more of Puopolo, Stratton, Birchall, maybe Gunston will be traded out for a "retirement" contract. Langers could also go.

We need some picks. If we could engineer say Baltic, a young gws mid (hopper/Kennedy), maybe Mckenzie from suns, a FA (Rockliff?) plus still give GW some picks to play with would be a great offseason. I'd also like us to find a developing tall - not sure who is on radar?

Not sure why one would consider trading Gunners.

????

 

[Hawk Dork]

Not sure why one would consider trading Gunners.

????

Gives you something to type on Bigfooty