Top 3 Improvers and Decliners

[NthBondiDoggies]

How about who we think will be the big 3 Improvers this year and the biggest decliners?

Maybe a couple of rules: will be judged by an average points per game improvement - from the last (or first for new players) 10 games and the last 10 games played. Dropped but fit is avg less 5 points?

Does CD have points or should we do super coach?

My three Improvers are:

- Talia
- Hrovat
- Stringer

My three decliners:

- Gia (one of my favourite players but can't see him making it through without being nursed)

- Boyd - will just have more ball taken by others

- Goodes - think he will find it hard to stay in the side

 

[ossie_21]

Improving -

Stringer, seems a lot fitter and as long as he doesn't pick up injuries he will improve his output
Jones, with Crameri in the side that should take one of the two defenders that usually sit on him, he will be more like when BBB was alongside him. That and also he will get better delivery as our midfield is improving (I hope)
Wallis, will relish his new found role and looks like he's got the mindset to challenge hinself and everyone else to get the best out of each other


I'll ignore Gia as a decliner because he already is pretty much going to be our sub in at least 50% of the games he will play in his final season, he's already more of a coach.

Declining-

Boyd, will probably have less time on the ball with our younger midfield taking over and will start working on a new role
Picken, another older player being challenged for his spot which won't be the best feeling as he was already eased out of his midfield tagging/run with role to a defensive role. Just don't see him having as much influence as past years even though I love what he does and he will take a hammering for the team
Cordy, as Campbell offered a lot more with less opportunities and unless he can shoulder (pun sort of intended) a decent amount of ruck duties it's hard to see a spot for him. Probably the #1 guy on the list I'd love to see prove me and a lot of people wrong

 

[King Harold]

I can see why people will nominate Boyd because of age , but if he has a injury free run , not sure he will drop off that much.

 

[Royale]

I think Boyd will be back to his best if he stays injury free. His numbers late in the season were around what we've expected.

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Biggest Improvers:

• Stringer - had no preseason last year, will be so much better with a good lead-in to 2014.
• Hunter - really looking forward to what he will bring in 2014. Tearing it up on the track currently.
• Young - fitness was a problem in 2013, but he has really improved over the break and was one of the stand-outs at training just before Christmas.

Biggest Sliders:

• Boyd - was making fewer tackles last year than previously in career primarily because his pace is slowing. Trend will only be downwards from here. Still has a role as an inside-mid in 2014, but will be more and more likely to be exposed on the outside than ever before.
• Gianciracusa - certainly won't be expecting him to be our leading goalkicker in 2014. Great servant but will primarily only play a pinch-hit role in 2014.
• Howard - I don't him to be retained beyond 2014. Not beginning with much of a base from which to decline admittedly, but will be left behind by the improvement in so many others.

 

[cleveland]

Improvers-

Stringer

Stevens

Hunter

Decliners-

Gia

Goodes

Picken

 

[timtamWB]

Those saying Picken will have some red faces end of next year. He'll be part of our back 6 taking the most dangerous small forward. We have no one else that can do that except for Pearce and I don't think he'll break into the team next year, even though I love him.

 

[Dav1d]

-Hunter
-Talia
-Macrae

To be big improvers next year, won't bother doing decliners

 

[TiAn_]

Having a look at our list to answer this question, it's pleasing to note that there are far more candidates for 'improving' as opposed to 'declining'.

To address the latter first, our list has a glut of half-back flankers. Two or more of the group of Goodes, Howard, Johannisen, Wood, Young, Picken, Pearce and Fuller will miss out. The obvious candidates are Howard, Pearce and Goodes. I also think Jason Tutt's time is numbered, given the recent influx of young skilled mids.

Several players stand out as having the greatest room for improvement over the course of a single season. By sheer force of his potential, and his multi-position capabilities, Stringer, now a further year removed from his recovery from a severely broken leg, could take a huge leap forward next season, whether as a forward or midfielder (most likely a combination of the two). His potential is limitless and still largely untapped.

Of the midfield group, I foresee a majority of players making more incremental improvements as opposed to monumental leaps (Macrae, Hunter, Smith, Liberatore and Wallis), and building upon strong performances. However, there are two I think are primed to make the big leap from good to very good (think Liberatore this year): Koby Stevens and Luke Dahlhaus.

Over the last 6 games of the season, Dahlhaus averaged a hair under 22 disposals per game, booting 11 goals during that same period (14.88 disposals and 17 goals in his other 16 games). If his late season burst can be sustained, 20 Disposals per game and 35 goals is within his reach.

Stevens, unlike Dahlhaus, didn't have an obvious stretch of outstanding performances, rather, he had a season of peaks (28, 29 and 31 disposal games) and troughs (8 games of single-digit disposals). I'm expecting (hoping...) a far more consistent, breakout, year from Koby, with many more peaks and less troughs.

 

[Fossie 32]

Hunter
Hrovat
Stringer

no decliners

 

[fronkalicious]

1. Macrae - will be one of the leagues blue chip young mids by seasons end.

2. Talia - will be one of the leagues blue chip young key defenders by seasons end.

3. Dickson - will have a top 10 finish in the Coleman medal on his resume by seasons end.

Decline:

1. Tutt - just too flawed a player to get there

2. Wood - I've been a fan but I'm wavering big time. If he can't nail a lock down defensive role, he's in trouble.

That's all I got. I can see some of the younger guys being delisted at the end of the year (Howard, Jong, greenwood etc) but that's hardly a revelation.

I think Boyd will bounce back and have a very competitive season.

 

[fitzroybowiedog]

Improvers

Jones - I like Jones, and I hope now with a bigger body in Crameri he'll kick on a bit like when bad bazza was around, if he doesn't I think I'll have to jump off the bandwagon. may have held on a bit long already. one more year.

Dahlhaus - I hope with another preseason under his belt his engine will get to point where he can spend more time being a chaotic entity in the midfield. love his forward work, but I think he can be an amazingly dymanic rotating mid/fwd

Grant - yes his career is on thr ropes, people dont have that much patience left for him, but, fingers crossed, he will keep taking the positive steps he took at the end of the season. Smokey for our leading goalkicker.

Hunter/Hrovat/Stringer/McRae/Talia/Roughie/Wallis - I think are all gimmies for improvement purely based on natural development.

Decliners
Griffen - controversial I know, but I think with the development of our midfield, we wont need to rely on him as much. He will still be a gun, our best, but I think it would take a very special effort to replicate this year with a stronger midfield around him.

Goodes - crafty pick up, that served a purpose well, but I can see him on the fringes of the team, rather than the apparent lock.

Wood - I think Wood has hit his ceiling, and will turn into the Addison, a great player to have when injuries hit, but you kinda hope he's not in our best 22.

Gia/Boyd/Murphy/Morris - Father time is catching up, can they stay one step ahead?

 

[littlenails]

Here is my consideration of the list:

Stay much the same or go up or down slightly
Jarrad Grant
Robert Murphy
Shaun Higgins
Tom Williams
Ryan Griffen
Adam Cooney
Will Minson
Liam Jones
Jordan Roughead
Koby Stevens
Tory Dickson
Tom Young
Brett Goodes

Decliners
Daniel Giansiracusa
Dale Morris
Liam Picken
Matthew Boyd

Improvers
Jake Stringer
Jack Macrae
Clay Smith
Jason Tutt
Tom Liberatore
Nathan Hrovat
Lachie Hunter
Michael Talia
Jason Johannisen
Tom Campbell
Ayce Cordy
Mitch Wallis
Luke Dahlhaus
Lin Jong

No base or don't know
Stewart Crameri
Josh Prudden
Sam Darley
Marcus Bontempelli
Matthew Fuller
Mitch Honeychurch
Alex Greenwood
Jack Redpath

Cannot get any worse, and are they lucky to be still on the list?
Easton Wood
Fletcher Roberts
Daniel Pearce
Christian Howard
Mark Austin

Out of the Improvers my top 3 would be:
1. Libba, already good but will get better and give that Brownlow a shake.
2. Jack Macrae, has the size and the smarts and the moves.
3. Nathan Hrovat, Gets around like a chain saw.

Out of the decliners
1. Liam Picken, never been a real wrap for him.
2. Daniel Giansiracusa, calf injuries and muscle fatigue of an aging body.
3. Dale Morris, didn't think he had a good 2013, problems associated with age and prior injuries will hold him back.

 

[NthBondiDoggies]

Jones is am interesting one - he has incredible talent but has never really looked settled - with BBB he had the luxury of having the freedom to come in where he wanted.

With BBB gone he has to take the focus AND want it.

He is not there yet but with Crameri and an emerging Campbell he has another setup to get used to - when you are the star the rest of the team moves around you - when that changes it can effect even great forwards (eg Buddy).

If he settles well and finds a consistent way to contribute he can be the big improver if not he could fall quickly.

My view - he will make it and start crushing defenders.

 

[True Dog]

Out of the decliners
1. Liam Picken, never been a real wrap for him.
2. Daniel Giansiracusa, calf injuries and muscle fatigue of an aging body.
3. Dale Morris, didn't think he had a good 2013, problems associated with age and prior injuries will hold him back.

Dude, you may be right and Morris could slide in 2014 but that's only because he had a great 2013.... The guy finished in the top 5 in our B&F

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Out of the decliners
3. Dale Morris, didn't think he had a good 2013, problems associated with age and prior injuries will hold him back.

For your sins, thou shalt watch this video 100 times.

 

[dogwatch]

Improvers
Stringer
Hrovat
Prudden

Declining (hope I'm wrong with these! All three could still be best 22 though)
Murphy - a year older - perhaps losing a bit of zip?
Cooney - we might not be as lucky with the knee as we were in 2013
Morris - age may start to catch up

 

[King Harold]

Hoping our most improved is Stringer.
If we can get this guy up and about it will make a world of difference to our side.
Could even make us top eight contenders.
Hrovat and Talia will be definite improvers.

As for the decliners :
Dannnnnnnnn , BRG93 and Dogwatch.
Can't see them getting up again , another year older and with the quality pack chasing them it may get a little to hard.
Since their MPV awards ,the quality has just dropped off a little.
Is it just a lack of hunger or have they just become "smug bastards" ?

 

[littlenails]

Dude, you may be right and Morris could slide in 2014 but that's only because he had a great 2013.... The guy finished in the top 5 in our B&F

That's my opinion. I saw him getting beaten quite often when he needn't have been. He is not the player he was you know. Played all 22 games and finished very low in the rankings, few disposals despite the ball being in our back half most of the time. He did some good things for sure but for me, since he lost his leg, he has changed status from very good player to ordinary player. I don't put very much faith in the team voting.

 

[littlenails]

For your sins, thou shalt watch this video 100 times.

That was great play. Did he do that every match did he? During 2013 I didn't think that he was anywhere near the player that he was prior to his broken leg.

 

[Obscene]

Top 3 improvers :

1. Lachlan Hunter - still cant believe that Macrae was voted best first year player. Has footy smarts.
2. Liam Jones - harshly judged as a young key position player and will only get better.
3. Ryan Griffin - captaincy responsibility will elevate his game to another level

Top 3 decliners :

1. Will Minson - don't forget that Mark Jamar had a "one off" great season and made All Australian.
2. Tom Williams/Shaun Higgins - injured again and please delist
3. Jack Redpath/Ling Jong/Alex Greenwood - all third year rookies who have shown nothing thus far and one of the most unbelievable list management decisions to re rookie them and decide not to inject new rookie talent into the 2014 squad.

 

[Dav1d]

That was great play. Did he do that every match did he? During 2013 I didn't think that he was anywhere near the player that he was prior to his broken leg.

You may be right about him not been the same player prior to his injury, but he certainly isn't ordinary
He also does things off the ball which doesn't get him enough credit
First season back after a broken leg as well, better to judge him next season
I think he'll have two more seasons left in him though

 

[Interloper]

Top 3 improvers :

1. Lachlan Hunter - still cant believe that Macrae was voted best first year player. Has footy smarts.
2. Liam Jones - harshly judged as a young key position player and will only get better.
3. Ryan Griffin - captaincy responsibility will elevate his game to another level

Top 3 decliners :

1. Will Minson - don't forget that Mark Jamar had a "one off" great season and made All Australian.
2. Tom Williams/Shaun Higgins - injured again and please delist
3. Jack Redpath/Ling Jong/Alex Greenwood - all third year rookies who have shown nothing thus far and one of the most unbelievable list management decisions to re rookie them and decide not to inject new rookie talent into the 2014 squad.

I can think of a couple reasons why that decision may have been made. The talent available outside may not be perceived to be any or significantly better than the talent/potential those 3 have. Those 3 have been in the system under Macca for 2 seasons so the accumulated knowledge and training benefits gained in that time may be considered of more benefit to the Footscray team in its first year than introducing new and perhaps physically underdeveloped players. I suspect that the decision is as much about providing Footscray with semi-established and physically developed players who are familiar with the senior teams set ups as it is about anything else.
The stragglers and injury prone are likely to be picked off over the next few seasons but some may have value for a period of time at the next level down while Footscray is established.

 

[maddog37]

That's my opinion. I saw him getting beaten quite often when he needn't have been. He is not the player he was you know. Played all 22 games and finished very low in the rankings, few disposals despite the ball being in our back half most of the time. He did some good things for sure but for me, since he lost his leg, he has changed status from very good player to ordinary player. I don't put very much faith in the team voting.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion. My opinion is that you have no idea

 

[dogwatch]

I can think of a couple reasons why that decision may have been made. The talent available outside may not be perceived to be any or significantly better than the talent/potential those 3 have. Those 3 have been in the system under Macca for 2 seasons so the accumulated knowledge and training benefits gained in that time may be considered of more benefit to the Footscray team in its first year than introducing new and perhaps physically underdeveloped players. I suspect that the decision is as much about providing Footscray with semi-established and physically developed players who are familiar with the senior teams set ups as it is about anything else.
The stragglers and injury prone are likely to be picked off over the next few seasons but some may have value for a period of time at the next level down while Footscray is established.

Still doesn't make sense to me. Why not just list them for Footscray then?

I am OK with retaining Jong and am prepared to give some benefit of doubt to Redpath (though not convinced yet). However Greenwood I don't get at all.

The great and proven value of the rookie system is that you can bring low cost players into the system without sacrificing a high pick. If you try enough of them you will occasionally unearth a star (eg Morris, Boyd, Dahlhaus, etc). To make this work you have to be prepared to turn rookies over fairly promptly if they aren't showing much. Why aren't we doing that?

I just hope J Mac knows something we don't wrt Greenwood and Redpath.