Hot Topic Trade/Free Agency Talk 2021 edition

[DangerousD]

Dockers might be satisfied with pick 7 and and 26 from the Tigers, Hawks pick 5

Things change, like Shiel taking less $, Martin coming to us rather than *

Until he nominates

Im sure the Dockers would want 5 from the Hawks and 7 and 26 from the Tigers, they are both better offers than 6, but you can use your experience, why would a player change their preference over one draft place? When has a player ever changed their club of choice half way through trade period?

Martin picked a different club 12 months later and Shiel picked the Bombers, nothing changed

 

[Jimmyonesix]

I said nothing of the sort. I've been arguing that it won't have any impact on that.

I'm sorry I misread or come in on the end of what you been saying .. apologies ..

 

[KnaveyBlue]

Why the comparisons to Prestia?

By the time he was traded, Prestia had enjoyed more 30+ possession games than hot meals.

Cerra has had 4.

 

[Jimmyonesix]

Would cerra rate closer to Taylor adams

3

Taylor Adams

Age

30

Ht

181cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

24.9

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.4

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

4.8

5star

CL

5.0

5star

D

20.4

5star

K

12.4

5star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

5.9

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

18.2

5star

K

11.0

4star

HB

7.2

5star

M

4.4

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

2.2

4star

or prestia for trade value

 

[Arr0w]

Im sure the Dockers would want 5 from the Hawks and 7 and 26 from the Tigers, they are both better offers than 6, but you can use your experience, why would a player change their preference over one draft place? When has a player ever changed their club of choice half way through trade period?

Martin picked a different club 12 months later and Shiel picked the Bombers, nothing changed

Cerra hasn't nominated a club yet has he?

Martin, hence things change

We had more money and better draft capital, yet Shiel went to *

 

[DangerousD]

Hypothetically speaking, if Gold Coast offered us pick 19 for LOB and the pick we are probably getting for SPS (either 29 or 35) would you do it ?

Just a Hypothetical question that is very unlikely to happen, but one I find intriguing.

If you were a list manager Elmer, would you offer a top 20 pick, for a player who managed 4 games in 2 years, injury free, at one of the bottom clubs, who is out of contract and is currently without a deal?

To answer your question, yes, LOB has little to no trade value.

 

[DangerousD]

Cerra hasn't nominated a club yet has he?

Martin, hence things change

We had more money and better draft capital, yet Shiel went to *

Cerra hasn’t officially nominated anyone yet, you’re right.

What relevance is Martin? He didn’t change clubs during the trade period, it was 12 months later.

What relevance is why Shiel chose Essendon over us? We are discussing why a player would change clubs mid trade period, after nominating one only days earlier.

I asked if it’s ever happened and you’ve referenced two players, who didn’t do it.

Clearly this whole discussion on what Cerra is worth and what we should/shouldn’t pay is based on the assumption he nominates us, which is being heavily reported.

 

[Arr0w]

Cerra hasn’t officially nominated anyone yet, you’re right.

What relevance is Martin? He didn’t change clubs during the trade period, it was 12 months later.

What relevance is why Shiel chose Essendon over us? We are discussing why a player would change clubs mid trade period, after nominating one only days earlier.

I asked if it’s ever happened and you’ve referenced two players, who didn’t do it.

Clearly this whole discussion on what Cerra is worth and what we should/shouldn’t pay is based on the assumption he nominates us, which is being heavily reported.

So what are you actually debating?

If he nominates us, I think it will be our 1st plus some shuffling in the Dockers advantage

What do you think?

 

[DangerousD]

Why the comparisons to Prestia?

By the time he was traded, Prestia had enjoyed more 30+ possession games than hot meals.

Cerra has had 4.

Just using his trade as comparison, to determine fair value for Cerra

 

[DangerousD]

So what are you actually debating?

If he nominates us, I think it will be our 1st plus some shuffling in the Dockers advantage

What do you think?

Originally I was after what you thought Freo would do, if we held firm on pick 6, do you think they would risk losing him for nothing if 6 was on the table?

As I think there is no way a club would throw away a player for free (send to the draft), so I don’t see why we should be offering more, Ive been referencing the Prestia trade a bit as I think he had a lot more runs on the board, that worked out to be around 10.

So I would hope we would be pushing to get a pick swap back in our favour, I’m sure Freo will fight this and we eventually settle on 6.

 

[TENACIOUS]

Could be wrong...

But...
Think I read somewhere that Carlton are going to go down the data, analytical path of coaching and list management...

Which is why Tim Lincoln joined the board..
Tim has a wealth of data and analytics experience and has been an expert in the field for over 30years...

This is pretty exciting... Should allow us to make better choices that lead to better outcomes, just shows how far behind the times we really were...

Wonder how long it wold take to implement into list management?
Allowing us to pick specific targeted players, instead of just the biggest name available

 

[Kings of Lygon]

I agree Freo will knock it back, but they won’t send him to the draft and get nothing, they have too much to lose. In regards to Saad, it’s slightly different, Essendon had a pick before us in both drafts, they threatened to redraft Saad if he went to the draft and I guess there was enough doubt there on our behalf, I also think we overpaid there, but not as much as others, in that situation, Essendon could also take a harder line, as they just been gifted a top pick for JD.

I wonder if Austin in his first trade period got schooled a little, hopefully he is better for it.

Im not going to cry if we sweeten the deal on Cerra, but it shouldn’t be anymore than a token upgrade, like we swap second rounders. I see this trade being similar to the Prestia deal, which worked out to be about pick 10

Perhaps. We can revisit if/when the trade is done. I just don't think we will risk not getting Cerra for the sake of what people in here are haggling over. I think we were desperate to get Saad and didn't want to run the risk and miss out on another, after the Papley ordeal. Austin didn't impress me much last year, if he can pull off 6 on it's own for Cerra, I'll change my mind on him.

As for your asking of players who changed their mind during the trade period, both Mitch Clark and Kurt Tippett did it. Wanted to be 'traded home' then mysteriously ended up elsewhere. They had a sudden change of heart when they saw more money offered late in the piece. Rare, but has happened. Then there are the litany of players who have asked for trades, not gotten them and ended up staying. Bit different because they were all contracted, but it goes to show that things can change.

Cerra has surprised me by just nominating Victoria and leaving any potential club nomination until perhaps this week. Indicates that perhaps he isn't like all the others who hard nominated a club. He may yet nominate us, but it's not like he seems hell bent on it, otherwise why the delay? Just food for thought.

 

[mrkyuss]

Originally I was after what you thought Freo would do, if we held firm on pick 6, do you think they would risk losing him for nothing if 6 was on the table?

As I think there is no way a club would throw away a player for free (send to the draft), so I don’t see why we should be offering more, Ive been referencing the Prestia trade a bit as I think he had a lot more runs on the board, that worked out to be around 10.

So I would hope we would be pushing to get a pick swap back in our favour, I’m sure Freo will fight this and we eventually settle on 6.

Hoping so - Austin at best broke even year 1, needs to show some stones this year.

 

[Metalcrusher]

Could be wrong...

But...
Think I read somewhere that Carlton are going to go down the data, analytical path of coaching and list management...

Which is why Tim Lincoln joined the board..
Tim has a wealth of data and analytics experience and has been an expert in the field for over 30years...

This is pretty exciting... Should allow us to make better choices that lead to better outcomes, just shows how far behind the times we really were...

Wonder how long it wold take to implement into list management?
Allowing us to pick specific targeted players, instead of just the biggest name available

There is only ONE problem with data analytics, it lacks the smell, sound, taste, feel test ... you get the eyes, and the back ground of the eyes ... but missing a few other key ingredients unless it as a holistic approach.

If that's the approach they use, great, but it needs to be holistic.

 

[Arr0w]

Originally I was after what you thought Freo would do, if we held firm on pick 6, do you think they would risk losing him for nothing if 6 was on the table?

As I think there is no way a club would throw away a player for free (send to the draft), so I don’t see why we should be offering more, Ive been referencing the Prestia trade a bit as I think he had a lot more runs on the board, that worked out to be around 10.

So I would hope we would be pushing to get a pick swap back in our favour, I’m sure Freo will fight this and we eventually settle on 6.

And I have already responded to this.

If the Dockers want more than pick 6, we either pay more or lose him to a side that will pay more.

Stop thinking this revolves purely around pick 6, Dockers also need points this year for 2 or 3 NGA players, so while reluctant they will take a later 1st if getting better overall value

It it's only pick 6, great, but IMHO, it will be slightly more, and very much doubt we will get something back if we offer 6 only

As for the Prestia comparison, Cerra has more versatility and is younger than Prestia at the time of trading. Prestia was also coming off 2 years of injuries. So the comparison is flawed

 

[bmaurizio]

Steady lads, if Adam Cerra officially nominates CFC then we can begin to speculate trade value which will change once again when Adam becomes an OOC player later in the month then the fun and games begin p6 and not too much more will get it done, if Cerra selects the Baggers as his preferred destination club.

 

[Metalcrusher]

And I have already responded to this.

If the Dockers want more than pick 6, we either pay more or lose him to a side that will pay more.

Stop thinking this revolves purely around pick 6, Dockers also need points this year for 2 or 3 NGA players, so while reluctant they will take a later 1st if getting better overall value

It it's only pick 6, great, but IMHO, it will be slightly more, and very much doubt we will get something back if we offer 6 only

As for the Prestia comparison, Cerra has more versatility and is younger than Prestia at the time of trading. Prestia was also coming off 2 years of injuries. So the comparison is flawed

You still up campaigner?

 

[Arr0w]

You still up campaigner?

No, my PA hacked my account

 

[F_therest]

Why the comparisons to Prestia?

By the time he was traded, Prestia had enjoyed more 30+ possession games than hot meals.

Cerra has had 4.

I hope he kills it for us, but honestly there are a lot of mids I'd prefer over Cerra...preferably ones who win more ball, are more aggressive, have more speed and kick more goals.

He will no doubt improve our midfield cause it's terrible, but I dont think he's actually exactly the type we need...maybe just what we could get.

 

[DangerousD]

And I have already responded to this.

If the Dockers want more than pick 6, we either pay more or lose him to a side that will pay more.

I asked you a really easy question, to which you responded the above, which didn’t answer the simple question I asked you at all.

I know that you know how trading works, so I’m quite puzzled how you would respond by saying, if a Freo don’t like our offer, they will just get more off of someone else, you know that clubs don’t choose who to trade with, if Cerra nominates Carlton and all we offer is pick 6, it means nothing, if another club offers pick 5 or 7 and 26.

So we can put it to bed, if Carlton only offer pick 6, do you think Fremantle would reluctantly accept or risk losing him for nothing?

 

[bmaurizio]

If Adam Cerra officially nominates CFC Bell will do the chest beating early, Walls their list manger is more reserved & resonable.
When Adam becomes an OOC player, Bell continues the nonsense , but eventually during last day of trading Freo & Bell will succumb.
No way they’ll risk losing Adam for zilch

 

[Kings of Lygon]

If Adam Cerra officially nominates CFC Bell will do the chest beating early, Walls their list manger is more reserved & resonable.
When Adam becomes an OOC player, Bell continues the nonsense , but eventually during last day of trading Freo & Bell will succumb.
No way they’ll risk losing Adam for zilch

Are we prepared to take it there though is another question worth asking. We certainly weren't last year and Essendon absolutely got the better of us.

 

[PoultryinMotion]

Keen to hear your thoughts on your last point, what do you think Fremantle would do, if we only offered pick 6? Do you think they would potentially miss out on pick 6 to prove a point?

In a transaction, where we are the only buyer, pick 6 is a good offer, I’m sure they will want more, but I see no way, they risk losing pick 6, to gain a pick swap in their favour, even in the even of another club coming in to the equation, I don’t see any of them offering more than pick 6.

I don’t see the point in Freo threatening to send Cerra to the draft, unlike the GC deal with Martin, where GC threatened to redraft Martin and Essendon the same with the Saad deal, Freo have no leverage, in both drafts, they pick after us.

i reckon it is one of the only loopholes (although not without potential risk) in the system for lowly teams to exploit so go for it where possible- but we shouldn’t need to for Cerra. Pick 6 and an exchange should satisfy both parties.

 

[Arr0w]

I asked you a really easy question, to which you responded the above, which didn’t answer the simple question I asked you at all.

I know that you know how trading works, so I’m quite puzzled how you would respond by saying, if a Freo don’t like our offer, they will just get more off of someone else, you know that clubs don’t choose who to trade with, if Cerra nominates Carlton and all we offer is pick 6, it means nothing, if another club offers pick 5 or 7 and 26.

So we can put it to bed, if Carlton only offer pick 6, do you think Fremantle would reluctantly accept or risk losing him for nothing?

Read my responses again

These deals are normally negotiated before the nomination. But, even then it's not to the final value

It seems you only want to consider 2 options, us offering only pick 6 and the Dockers accepting it, without having other suitors. It really doesn't work that way

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

If Adam Cerra officially nominates CFC Bell will do the chest beating early, Walls their list manger is more reserved & resonable.
When Adam becomes an OOC player, Bell continues the nonsense , but eventually during last day of trading Freo & Bell will succumb.
No way they’ll risk losing Adam for zilch

Which is probably why he's delayed nominating a club.

I have no doubt that Bell and D'Orazio are negotiating with a number of clubs to broker the best deal for all parties. So (for example) if Richmond come up with a better offer than we come up with, they'd be saying to Cerra "would you be happy to go there for a 5 year deal on $xxx,xxx?" It's good negotiating....a bit like a hidden auction.

Once they have an 'in principle' agreement with a club that all parties are comfortable with, Cerra will then announce the club. There is no chance that Freo or Cerra will risk going through the pre season draft by nominating a club without negotiating beforehand.

Which is also why the threat of splitting the pick or lowballing an offer is potentially fraught with danger if we're looking to go down that path.