Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 3

[Mobbs]

There's reasons for LGBT being outlawed, and Abortion being criminalised, in Russia. I mean its ALSO because they are fascists, but it's timed to coincide with elections, to divert the attention away from criticism of Putin's worthiness for another go around. Now HE isn't even up for election, he just elects himself. But he still rules a party which contests elections in constituencies.

So history repeats itself : the last time Putin's popularity was flagging in Russia, suddenly there was a tone of "gee how bad are those gay people huh"? and here we are again.

The RF don't need to be kicked out of Ukraine. The RF need to be kicked out of RUSSIA.

Also mentioned is how there is a new exodus from Russia on the horizon, but this time they're not running from mobilisation, or from being associated with a genocidal state. They they don't wanna stay where their lifestyle is criminalised before their eyes.

 

[Mobbs]

In Denys Davydov's video today he talks about how there is rumour Ukraine might attempt another counter-offensive of unknown goal or size, in very near future. I think he was on-reporting from Bild and one of the reasons for this suggestion is based on how basically none of the Abrams tanks have been seen on the frontline yet - it leads to suggestions that Ukraine have held back a lot of resources and the possible reasons why.

There's also ramped up recruitment in Ukraine for the military recently, sometimes quite pushy (let's say!) and perhaps there is something in the wings. They have hard winter time right now, wet winter comes later with thaws, so its definitely possible to move resources en masse. Denys then started talking about the insufficient RF defence lines over the Kherson left bank, wasn't hard to tell what his guesstimate was - potentially cutting Crimea off from occupied Zaporizhzhe and Kherson oblasts.

Meanwhile Avdiivka region loses a couple of metres here and there every now and then at the expense of massive meatwaves of RF forces.

Edit: Well if his words didn't give away his guesses, then his thumbnail sure does!

 

[Cap]

There's reasons for LGBT being outlawed, and Abortion being criminalised, in Russia. I mean its ALSO because they are fascists, but it's timed to coincide with elections, to divert the attention away from criticism of Putin's worthiness for another go around. Now HE isn't even up for election, he just elects himself. But he still rules a party which contests elections in constituencies.

So history repeats itself : the last time Putin's popularity was flagging in Russia, suddenly there was a tone of "gee how bad are those gay people huh"? and here we are again.

The RF don't need to be kicked out of Ukraine. The RF need to be kicked out of RUSSIA.

Also mentioned is how there is a new exodus from Russia on the horizon, but this time they're not running from mobilisation, or from being associated with a genocidal state. They they don't wanna stay where their lifestyle is criminalised before their eyes.

This stuff is also intended to keep the GOP onside as well.

Keeps up his strong man , Christian values that appeals to our far right brethren

 

[Mobbs]

Ukraine launched an attack reportedly targetting an airfield near Rostov. No details on success or lack thereof.

The moment of a night UAV attack on Morozovsk in the Rostov region was caught on video. According to preliminary data, the drones were trying to attack a local military airfield. The regional governor said that “most of the drones were destroyed, there were no casualties.”

According to open data, the 559th Guards Bomber Guards Regiment (military unit 75392) is based at the military airfield in Morozovka. Front-line bombers Su-24, Su-24M, Su-34 are stationed at the airfield .

from [Astra TG]. More images at the post.

View attachment IMG_9142.mp4

 

[Mobbs]

An RF attack in the Kupyansk direction meets with some resistance. Location is given as Syn'kivka.

CAUTION - soldiers are clearly killed here, in fact I think some of them are visible, or parts thereof.

Source TG withheld

Spoiler: visible deaths

View attachment video_2023-12-17_19-55-51.mp4

 

[Visions]

He's probably referring to Geroman.

 

[schneebly111]

In Denys Davydov's video today he talks about how there is rumour Ukraine might attempt another counter-offensive of unknown goal or size, in very near future. I think he was on-reporting from Bild and one of the reasons for this suggestion is based on how basically none of the Abrams tanks have been seen on the frontline yet - it leads to suggestions that Ukraine have held back a lot of resources and the possible reasons why.

There's also ramped up recruitment in Ukraine for the military recently, sometimes quite pushy (let's say!) and perhaps there is something in the wings. They have hard winter time right now, wet winter comes later with thaws, so its definitely possible to move resources en masse. Denys then started talking about the insufficient RF defence lines over the Kherson left bank, wasn't hard to tell what his guesstimate was - potentially cutting Crimea off from occupied Zaporizhzhe and Kherson oblasts.

So I’ve researched this Denys Davydov character and he is a commercial airline pilot. He has zero training in war and tactics, and zero military experience in any form.

His analysis is laughable I have to admit. There’s no Ukrainian offensive coming from Kherson. There’s a massive river in between and no bridges to move equipment. At best they’re getting small units across to the marshy south bank of the Dniper via tinnies. The troops on that bank can barely hold ground. They can’t establish a pontoon bridge or a regular ferry crossing let alone anything that’ll move the several thousand heavy tanks, artillery pieces and Logistical vehicles needed to mount an offensive across western Zaporizhia to get to the Crimean peninsula.

The NY Times even admits it’s a futile exercise.

Ukrainian Marines on ‘Suicide Mission’ in Crossing the Dnipro River

Soldiers frustrated by positive reports from Ukrainian officials break their silence, describing the effort as brutalizing and, ultimately, futile.

www.nytimes.com

Reviewing Denys’s channel it seems he’s been ridiculously over optimistic about Ukraine’s chances. Obviously he wants to boost morale and convince everyone Ukraine is on the verge of victory, but he’s been saying that for a year.

 

[schneebly111]

And this is bad for Ukraine.

A Ukrainian drone operator who directs artillery fire on the southern front line and who requested not to be named told the BBC that the number of artillery engagements from the Ukrainian side in the south had dramatically dropped over the past few months.

"During the peak period of the counter-offensive and even just a few months ago, the ratio between Russian and our artillery fire was largely 1:1 or bigger in our advantage. Now, we fire one round for every four or five rounds that Russia fires."

Ukraine war: Shell shortages force us to limit firing, Ukrainian troops tell BBC

The BBC visits a front line where ammunition is low and hears troops' fears of wavering Western support.

www.bbc.com

So this is with the stocks of ammunition they’ve gotten up until now, before the GOP and some EU right governments starting to cut the purse strings this month. Their ability to maintain counter battery fire is reduced now and only gets worse early next year. If they can’t respond to Russian artillery then the only thing will be happening is the softening up of Ukraine defences (which aren’t as strong as Russian lines) and the slow costly Russian advance becoming faster and less costly for them……

I hate Russia, I hate Putin, I love Ukrainians and their resilience and strength.

But I also live in reality. Yes the GOP and other governments should’ve better supported Ukraine, but they didn’t. It may be time to cease fire, sue for peace and accept their currently held territory as the end game. Because if this drags on then Russia may have more advances, more land and advance all the way up the Kyiv.

 

[Mobbs]

So I’ve researched this Denys Davydov character and he is a commercial airline pilot. He has zero training in war and tactics, and zero military experience in any form.

His analysis is laughable I have to admit. {Dnipr bridgeheads comments not ignored but talking about Davydov here}

If you're taking a cursory glance or an armchair review then I guess it can seem so. I'm pretty sure his previous work as a commercial pilot is pretty much in his profile (and on his 2nd channel too) so that's not too deep a dive.

But Davydov uses info from contacts he trusts, he on-reports more than he analyses and commonly states that his own opinion is just that, however he has personal friends from the air force working with the military and even quotes them with links on occasion (he's given one or two memoriams for those lost in battle due to a them being people he knew personally),. he's also not so overly optimistic as he commonly explains the difficulty and the bad news that others don't, repeatedly reminding his viewers that he wants to show the bad news as well as the good. He repeats every day that many Ukrainians lose their lives on the frontline.

Reviewing Denys’s channel it seems he’s been ridiculously over optimistic about Ukraine’s chances. Obviously he wants to boost morale and convince everyone Ukraine is on the verge of victory, but he’s been saying that for a year.

No he doesn't do that, though he does say Ukraine will eventually be victorious. But "on the verge" is wrong, as he says repeatedly that unfortunately its going to be a drawn out long-term process, made even longer by the broken promises in western support.

He's not my favourite source, he's a youtuber now and the ****ing thumbnails with his scowls and thumbs-ups are extremely cringey to me (though Georgij is heaps worse). But he's converting info into dumbspeak for us nuffies and adding his own commentary on top. The hint of a new offensive upcoming is not his story, his guess at where it might happen, is.

 

[LewisHall]

There's also ramped up recruitment in Ukraine for the military recently, sometimes quite pushy (let's say!) and perhaps there is something in the wings. They have hard winter time right now, wet winter comes later with thaws, so its definitely possible to move resources en masse. Denys then started talking about the insufficient RF defence lines over the Kherson left bank, wasn't hard to tell what his guesstimate was - potentially cutting Crimea off from occupied Zaporizhzhe andKherson oblasts.

NYT reports: (ditto the Irish times)

"‘People Snatchers’: Ukraine’s Recruiters Use Harsh Tactics to Fill Ranks. Ukrainian men are reporting incidents of wrongful draft notices, unprofessional medical commissions and coercive mobilization tactics."


'quite pushy' is one way of saying it. The videos for months have been brutal of new 'recruitment' to the UA

Anytime someone spells it as Kiev, alarm bells are raised.

I also say Twitter instead of x and men instead of cis men. I wouldn't read too much into using the traditional spelling

 

[LewisHall]

Dude. Russia isn't advancing on all fronts, do you have a direct link to Russia bot central for your info?

There are a few places where there have been Russian advances, but there are still places Ukraine advances. In both cases, usually counted in hundreds of metres.

Give me your best estimates.

At the current pace of Russian advance, how long until they reach Kiev?

Mine is in about 100 years.

Does that count as winning in your book?

It's like, your wife is jumped by a rapist, intent on knocking her down quickly and raping her.

An hour later, she is still on her feet and still fighting. While she is still fighting, and not being knocked out and raped, she is winning.

The rapist needs a victory, or they need to run away, she just needs to keep fighting.

On SM-X200 using BigFooty.com mobile app

After the long term stalemate, post Russia taking Bakhmut. The RA seem to be finally making progress pushing out - taking the surrounding region and putting pressure around the Ukraine strong point of Chasiv Yar.

Russian fighters continue to plant flags on the outskirts of Marinka.

Again, for all the optimism on here; the guys actually doing the fighting might be getting a bit nervous if they are located in and around Avdiivka. Many of the population centers past that city are now under the pump too.

In the north of the Frontline, the UA seems to have been losing ground for some time.

Robotyne some of the area taken in the failed counter offensive is under assault with some reported losses of territory. [Which is not ideal given the amount of Ukraine men and western armor lost there]

From what I can tell there is significant pressure and some progress from the RA along most of the fronts , especially given it's the winter.

ISW analyses Russiaâs war plan up to 2026, published by Bild

The German publication Bild, referring to intelligence data and sources, has reported that Russia plans to occupy Ukrainian territory beyond the borders of the four illegally annexed Ukrainian oblasts during 2024-2026. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has noted that these targets...

www.pravda.com.ua

I expect Russia would be quite confident winning a war of attrition and the above map isn't too far from how it might unfold.

I do look at pro Russ sources but also pro uke and mostly neutral mapping. I recommend 'defence politics Asia' (Twitter and YouTube) as a balanced source of analysis if people are interested in a more realistic outlook.

Ukraine is currently holding a line of strong points and fortifications. Some of them dug in for many years -
so the pace of progress may quicken when they start to fall. As the defensive lines as not that thick as Russia continues to progress. My guess is a lot less than 100 years. Cheers

 

[Mobbs]

In the north of the Frontline, the UA seems to have been losing ground for some time.

 

[Mobbs]

Robotyne some of the area taken in the failed counter offensive is under assault with some reported losses of territory.

 

[LewisHall]

View attachment 1874032

My understanding was the orks made some decent progress in the Kupyansk sector in recent times.

Ukraine seems to be doing well with the bridgehead region tbf

 

[Mobbs]

Avdiivka could be argued that the RF have made some reportable headway. Whether its worth the immense losses, only they can know.

 

[LewisHall]

Avdiivka could be argued that the RF have made some reportable headway. Whether its worth the immense losses, only they can know.
View attachment 1874035

Like bakhmut. Both sides seem to be losing considerable amounts in Avdiivka.

Reports a bunch of ua reserves have been moved there also

 

[Mobbs]

My understanding was the orks made some decent progress in the Kupyansk sector in recent times.

Ukraine seems to be doing well with the bridgehead region tbf

Kupyansk etc. I'd read of some territory taken, some lost. I honestly didn't know the extent until your post inspired me to go check it out.

I'm out of time due to leaving for work - re Bakhmut (Chasiv Yar) I don't see any threat to Chasiv Yar but an area north of Bakhmut regained by Ukraine, was lost again, so it might be relevant to that.

The Mariinka claim is generally correct. For every two pro-Russian claims of Mariinka territory claimed, about one ends up being true. Recent claims all of Mariinka is now in RF hands was shown to be false, however the percentage of Mariinka in RF hands is now probably about 95% so in another sense it might as well be true.

One thing that does need to be accepted is that even if RF haven't taken as much territory as they claim, they ARE trying to, and they DO have massive troops buildup in those regions.

 

[Chief]

It may be time to cease fire, sue for peace and accept their currently held territory as the end game. Because if this drags on then Russia may have more advances, more land and advance all the way up the Kyiv.

Russia will just use that time to plan their full takeover. That's what they do.

 

[Millky95]

Russia will just use that time to plan their full takeover. That's what they do.

 

[wannabejack]

Survey Reveals Those Accepting Territorial Concessions to Russia Growing

The poll indicates only one-fifth of Ukrainians now ready to cede territory to stop Russia's war against them.

www.kyivpost.com

As of December 2023, the survey indicates that 19% of Ukrainians surveyed are open to territorial concessions. Notably, this marks a gradual increase from 10% in May, 14% in October, to the current figure.

Conversely, the percentage of those opposing territorial concessions has decreased from 84% in May to 80% in October and further to 74% in December. Despite this shift, a clear majority of Ukrainians still maintain the stance that Ukraine should not relinquish any of its territories.

 

[Mobbs]

I wonder if anything is actually different this time around. The one possible effectual difference is that this time most of the rest of the world said "now hang on a minute". Devils advocate in my does question if RF, like a child, steals it's last cookie now that its been noticed.

The other angle is the Malifice one , namely this time its Ukraine which does a Russia and lies that it'll stop there. Then reload.

But overall it still seems too dangerous to accept a ceasefire.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Cap]

I can only hope that whilst the US and its allies have to deal with Russian backed interference in the form of the GOP and Hungary they are working out exactly what Ukraine need and actually give it to them.

 

[wannabejack]

Swedish Archer Howitzer Revolutionizes the Ukrainian Battlefield in the Fight Against Russian Forces

Swedish Archer Howitzer Revolutionizes the Ukrainian Battlefield in the Fight Against Russian Forces

www.armyrecognition.com

The ARCHER howitzer stands out for its rapid rate of fire, dispatching up to six rounds per minute, and its ability to relocate quickly after engagement. This provides a tactical advantage, allowing for sustained operations with minimal exposure to enemy fire.

The fully automated magazine of the ARCHER carries 21 rounds and can handle both standard and smart munitions...

The ARCHER howitzers are part of a larger trend of military support from various countries to Ukraine, including different types of self-propelled howitzers like the Zuzana 2, M777, FH70, CAESARs, M109A6, Krab, and PzH 2000.

The urgent need for artillery systems in Ukraine to combat Russian forces has been a significant aspect of the ongoing conflict. The situation on the ground in Ukraine highlights the crucial role of artillery in modern warfare, especially in the context of Ukraine's defense against Russian aggression.

...there remains a significant artillery shortage on the Ukrainian front, defining the nature of the conflict. The demand for shells in Ukraine has been so high that even major defense companies like Rheinmetall have struggled to keep up. The U.S. has provided cluster munitions as a "bridging capability" to meet immediate needs. Meanwhile, Russia has experienced its own challenges, relying on Soviet-era reserves and facing shell rationing due to a significant deficit in artillery ammunition.

 

[Cap]

I thought the world was meant to be increasing production of artillery?

Weren't Australia expanding capacity?

Australia invests in expanding 155mm munitions, aerial bomb capacity

The investment will boost production capacity for 155mm artillery ammunition and 500-pound aerial bombs at Thales-managed factories.

www.defensenews.com

It's genuinely surprising the West can't outproduce 3 countries.

 

[Visions]

After the long term stalemate, post Russia taking Bakhmut. The RA seem to be finally making progress pushing out - taking the surrounding region and putting pressure around the Ukraine strong point of Chasiv Yar.

You are so full of BS!

Post the orcs taking Bakhmut, there was no stalemate as the UAF took a large amount of territory south of the town back including the settlements of Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

And now they are nowhere near putting pressure on Chasiv Yar despite your claims.

Prove me wrong? (Rhetorical question as you never back up your BS).

You go on about people here being optimistic about Ukraines chances, yet all Russia needs to do is attack with 10 men and one tank and according to you have collapsed the defensive lines.

Just like your previous claim that Russia are advancing on all fronts when they gained 4 square kilometres last month. So much disinformation in every post of yours, its so draining.