Prediction Watch the narrative change

[Carey4life]

There are five games left in the season and North play three of those against last year's bottom six (Hawks, Adelaide and GC), one against a current bottom four team (Essendon) and one against Sydney at Marvel.

With a new coach and unshackled game style, as well as a healthier list (touch wood) there is a chance we look a lot more competitive in the coming weeks.

If we do win a game (or two) and don't have blow outs on the scoreboard, I bet the media narrative changes from: (1) self-inflicted horrible list that no one could manage, so don't deserve a priority pick; to, (2) emerging young talent with stabilising footy department (and the footy department issues were self-inflicted) so don't deserve a priority pick.

Lets see how this plays out, although there could be some mental gymnastics coming from the media cheap seats that we have all unfortunately come to expect.

 

[SMaturin]

100%

 

[Colby Cheer Squad]

If we were to land Clarko, and as we take media-friendly scalps like Richmond last night, and possibly Hawthorn and Essendon to come, I fully expect the narrative to switch to being too good for a PP.

 

[HTPunter]

So essentially you're saying IF our performance changes for the better, people will change their opinions?

IF the club does string together a good last 6-7 weeks of footy and goes from "historically bad" (1-14, 47% with the only win being a hard fought win over a WAFL side) to just bad (a competitive loss here, an upset win there, maybe finish the year 3-19 60%) then yes, the narrative will change.

Why wouldn't it?

 

[HTPunter]

It's not mental gymnastics in the slightest (in this hypothetical) - it will show that it was attitude/relationship based and that with some better morale and guidance the list is not historically bad. Why should there be a PP in that case when we've clearly decided ourselves for example that a 2nd rounder this year wasn't necessary?

Of course if this was just a right time of year upset win and we go back to 10+ goal losses for the rest of the season, that will be evidence that the list just sucks, never seen a suckier bunch of sucks to have sucked.

 

[The Filth Wizard]

If we were to land Clarko, and as we take media-friendly scalps like Richmond last night, and possibly Hawthorn and Essendon to come, I fully expect the narrative to switch to being too good for a PP.

If that happens then that's fine, means we're on the right track but I can still see something happening, even if we win another 2 games. We were never seeing start of first round but there'd be some real value for us with pick 11 (one GC got twice in a row) as you could target one of the decent KP options and still take best available (Wardlaw, Ashcroft, Sheezel) with 1/2.

 

[Masked Avenger]

There are five games left in the season and North play three of those against last year's bottom six (Hawks, Adelaide and GC), one against a current bottom four team (Essendon) and one against Sydney at Marvel.

With a new coach and unshackled game style, as well as a healthier list (touch wood) there is a chance we look a lot more competitive in the coming weeks.

If we do win a game (or two) and don't have blow outs on the scoreboard, I bet the media narrative changes from: (1) self-inflicted horrible list that no one could manage, so don't deserve a priority pick; to, (2) emerging young talent with stabilising footy department (and the footy department issues were self-inflicted) so don't deserve a priority pick.

Lets see how this plays out, although there could be some mental gymnastics coming from the media cheap seats that we have all unfortunately come to expect.

Although the priority pick issue remains, we won't feature too greatly now particularly if we perform for the rest of the year

The caravan has moved on after it got what it wanted - its pound of flesh in Noble and seeing a proud Club in dissaray.

 

[shinboner magic]

There are five games left in the season and North play three of those against last year's bottom six (Hawks, Adelaide and GC), one against a current bottom four team (Essendon) and one against Sydney at Marvel.

With a new coach and unshackled game style, as well as a healthier list (touch wood) there is a chance we look a lot more competitive in the coming weeks.

If we do win a game (or two) and don't have blow outs on the scoreboard, I bet the media narrative changes from: (1) self-inflicted horrible list that no one could manage, so don't deserve a priority pick; to, (2) emerging young talent with stabilising footy department (and the footy department issues were self-inflicted) so don't deserve a priority pick.

Lets see how this plays out, although there could be some mental gymnastics coming from the media cheap seats that we have all unfortunately come to expect.

Media are contradicting goldfish

 

[Carey4life]

It's not mental gymnastics in the slightest (in this hypothetical) - it will show that it was attitude/relationship based and that with some better morale and guidance the list is not historically bad. Why should there be a PP in that case when we've clearly decided ourselves for example that a 2nd rounder this year wasn't necessary?

Of course if this was just a right time of year upset win and we go back to 10+ goal losses for the rest of the season, that will be evidence that the list just sucks, never seen a suckier bunch of sucks to have sucked.

The point in the hypothetical wasn't to deride the media if they became incrementally more positive on the North if we show signs of improvement.

It was more an observation of the ridiculousness of the last couple of weeks where the narrative was that our historically bad list was self-inflicted and not worthy of a priority pick.

If we have a post sacking form bounce into an easier draw over a short sample of 6 weeks, those views on the lack of talent from expert footy analysts shouldn't change, should they?

I personally think priority picks, academies, and father sons should all be done with as they compromise the competition, although I'll save that data for another post.

 

[ozzyoslo]

If we were to land Clarko, and as we take media-friendly scalps like Richmond last night, and possibly Hawthorn and Essendon to come, I fully expect the narrative to switch to being too good for a PP.

MY mates already talking of that last night.

 

[gokangas]

If we were to land Clarko, and as we take media-friendly scalps like Richmond last night, and possibly Hawthorn and Essendon to come, I fully expect the narrative to switch to being too good for a PP.

Not many supporting us for a PP right now so only will get worse. Do you honestly think Clarko is a chance? I've heard he is a no but not my best source.

 

[Colby Cheer Squad]

The point, if I can reinterpret for the OP, is that you can't be both self-inflicted list problems bad and also too good. The self-inflicted part gets wiped out. And therefore, the AFL makes the call on the win-loss record and not whether it was self-inflicted.

 

[Colby Cheer Squad]

Not many supporting us for a PP right now so only will get worse. Do you honestly think Clarko is a chance? I've heard he is a no but not my best source.

My personal opinion, putting myself in his shoes (and also noting that I am known to be insanely one-eyed) is this - if Clarko wants to coach next year and his only choices are North Melbourne or GWS, then obviously he picks us. I honestly can't understand why anyone thinks GWS has a better chance of success than us. I don't see it. If he wants to win a premiership, he comes to us.

 

[gokangas]

My personal opinion, putting myself in his shoes (and also noting that I am known to be insanely one-eyed) is this - if Clarko wants to coach next year and his only choices are North Melbourne or GWS, then obviously he picks us. I honestly can't understand why anyone thinks GWS has a better chance of success than us. I don't see it. If he wants to win a premiership, he comes to us.

If that's his choice then don't under estimate the strength of the AFL who would be desperate to get him to GWS.

 

[King Hansen]

(2) emerging young talent with stabilising footy department (and the footy department issues were self-inflicted) so don't deserve a priority pick.

mind if I tweet something along this and tag Kane Cornes and Sonja?

 

[Disco Dew]

Couldn't give two shits about priority picks tbh. If we continue performing like we have over the last 2 weeks for the rest of the year then it would make complete sense for the media to push even harder on "north don't need/deserve a PP". It would show that the list is in fact up to it and that there were other issues (obviously) impacting our ability on field.

Honestly, I find the constant battle against the media tiresome and boring. We all know they are a bunch of campaigners, it's time to switch it off my dudes!

Enjoy this week and hope for more to celebrate as the year finishes up.

 

[Carey4life]

mind if I tweet something along this and tag Kane Cornes and Sonja?

I'd probably wait a week, but you do you

No one likes when a man* goes to early ...

*Apologies if you're a women.

 

[King Hansen]

I'd probably wait a week, but you do you

No one likes when a man* goes to early ...

*Apologies if you're a women.

never too early with this reactive AFL media

 

[Roo202]

It's not mental gymnastics in the slightest (in this hypothetical) - it will show that it was attitude/relationship based and that with some better morale and guidance the list is not historically bad. Why should there be a PP in that case when we've clearly decided ourselves for example that a 2nd rounder this year wasn't necessary?

Of course if this was just a right time of year upset win and we go back to 10+ goal losses for the rest of the season, that will be evidence that the list just sucks, never seen a suckier bunch of sucks to have sucked.

If we continue to show the improved effort of the last two weeks for most of the last 5 games of the season, then it won't be inaccurate for the media to report that we are showing improvement. The point to me is the hysterical extremes with which it happens. A couple of weeks ago, we had all kinds of talk and stats to suggest we were the worst team in the history of the game, stench of the end of Fitzroy etc. For that to switch all the way to being entirely of no need of assistance, based on a few better performances, would be hypocritical and at the very least premature.

The improvement we showed at the end of last year had many calling us the best wooden spoon team ever, which was nice for our optimism, but also killed any suggestion (which at the time was probably a touch premature) of draft assistance. It also proved to be a bit of a false dawn.

Even if (and it is a big IF) we were able to win two of our last five games from here, that would be four wins for the season and 11.5 wins in the last three (maybe should be 12.5 to even it out historically due to the shortened 2020 season) On pretty much any measure that would still be justification that the rational conversation should be around how much assistance we get, not whether we need it. Not expecting anything remotely in the ball park, but even with two more wins, our last three years will still be worse than the three years leading into GC getting their massive assistance package.

 

[speedy]

The narrative that I’ve heard often that really irritates me is that we don’t deserve a priority pick because our current predicament is of our own doing?

Well no sh*t! Who else‘s fault would it be? Just like any other club languishing down the bottom of the ladder, it’s their own freaking fault!

 

[speedy]

Couldn't give two shits about priority picks tbh. If we continue performing like we have over the last 2 weeks for the rest of the year then it would make complete sense for the media to push even harder on "north don't need/deserve a PP". It would show that the list is in fact up to it and that there were other issues (obviously) impacting our ability on field.

Honestly, I find the constant battle against the media tiresome and boring. We all know they are a bunch of campaigners, it's time to switch it off my dudes!

Enjoy this week and hope for more to celebrate as the year finishes up.

* that I want a priority pick. I’m sick seeing other teams getting kissed on the d*ick with priority picks, compensation picks, academy picks and father sons.

 

[northbergs]

Just say we won all of our last 5 games does the argument hold up about needing a priority pick? I would not hope nor care care if we get one.

For one, a team that finishes with 7 wins does not deserve a priority pick, and it also means our list OK. And like every other team that has gaps to fill, we do our best to trade in what we need or get what we need from the draft over the next two years (albeit our draft hand this year is not great).

I’ll caveat the above by saying while all our remaining matches are winnable it doesn’t mean we’ll win them all (we’ll do we’ll to win two), so the priority pick in that situation should be something we still push for if we have 5 or less wins.


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[Caracas]

We’re nothing if not adept at second guessing the bad things that are destined to happen to us if things get better. We’re almost pathological in that regard. I’m inclined to go with:-

The Die has already been cast as regards the PP.

Sonja is fast becoming the face and heart and soul of a new North Melbourne.

LDU and Simpkin will be referred to as two proper “Charlies” in the future.

We’re going to land a name coach.




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