Whats he future for us in 3 years time?

[bashar]

hey guys, im basking in our glory right now and extreamly enjoying our team play. but im slightly worried about the future more so rebuilding phase.
all succesful prem teams go through it, look at the lions, bombers, port and west coast.
what will happen with us our core group i.e. from the 1999,2000,and 2001 draft come into thie twighlight years... will we suffer as much as the other team? do we have enough young stars to take over the raigns and guide us to the next chapter of our history?
i personally think we could do with a few more stars i.e. top 5 pick kind of players, only sellwood and hawkins seem to be in the catagory as egan might never recover. recruiting and rebuilding will be a difficult task especially since 2 more teams are coming into the competition, that will hord up all the early draft picks. all i can say is geelong must make someshrewed dissions regarding trading and drafting this year..
just want to hear your thoughts and whether you feel that this is an issue we'll have to deal with or not
cheers

 

[Tay29]

How far we bottom out really comes down to how well we have drafted. It's hard to say. In 3 years time we'll probably be without Scarlett, Milburn and Harley. Ottens, Wojo and Mooney will be on their last legs if they are still playing. Chappy, Enright and Corey won't be far behind. That is a far chunk of quality that is going to be hard to replace. Hawkins for Mooney is the obvious. Harry Taylor for Scarlett. Mackie will slot into the role of Milburn you would probably say. He might even take over from Scarlett if you look who he has manned up on this year. Blake and West will probably be our ruck department. Mumford maybe but I still rate West better than Mummy.

The good news for us is that in 3 years if we are starting to slide, the draft concessions for West Sydney and Gold Coast should have ended or that they have far less advantage. Our lowest finish in the past 25 years is 12th which is great but hinders in getting some really high draft picks. But as has been shown with this team, you don't need #1 draft picks to win a premiership. So it comes back to my first point. Comes down to picking good talent from the picks you have.

 

[cat_fanatic]

The core group will still be at its peak in three years time. Some players will have left and new players will have arrived. The players that will be 30+ and approaching or may have retired are Harley, Ling, Milburn, Mooney, Ottens, Scarlett and Wojcinski.

In terms of replacements we already have:


Egan > Harley
Hawkins/Nathan > Mooney
Mumford/D. Simpson > Ottens
Taylor > Scarlett
Donahue > Wojcinski

This Leaves Ling, Milburn and Rooke without any obvious replacements, keeping in mind that Mackie, Selwood, Prismall etc are already part of the team and are not considered replacements.

Backline in three years:
Enright (29)
Hunt (29)
Egan (28)
Mackie (27)
Taylor (25)
Donahue (21)
…with the possibilities/bench players of Djerrkura and some new draftees. Average age of 26 years and the possibility of Scarlett still being a handy attacking player at age 32, which is likely, will ensure we still have one of the premier defences in the comp.

Midfield in three years:
Corey (29)
Ablett (27)
Bartel (27)
Kelly (27)
Prismall (25)
Selwood (23)
Varcoe (23)
Hogan (22)

Average age of 25 years. Obviously Jimmy, Gaz and Kel will still be going strong but Corey and Ling will most likely be given reduced midfield time with a likely move down back/ up forward for these players respectively.

Forward line in three years:
Mooney (31)
Chapman (29)
S. Johnson (28)
Lonergan (27)
Stokes (26)
N. Ablett (25)
Davenport (25)
Hawkins (23)
Gamble (23)
Simpson (21)

Average age of 25.5 years, with Mooney probably still playing a role as a KPP and Lonergan, Hawkins and hopefully Nathan holding down KP’s and rotating. We need to invest in some small/medium forwards in the coming years as Chapman and Stokes will be less agile and Varcoe most likely playing in the middle. Djerrkura may be an option up forward also.

Rucks in three years:
Ottens (31)
Blake (25)
Mumford (25)
West (23)
D. Simpson (22)

Ottens will most certainly be less mobile and a little more injury prone, but hopefully still be able to play a role. Blake and Mumford will both be 25 and approaching their peaks, with the former having shown he will be a great player. Mumford is no certainty to still be with the cats, but you’d think one of he, West and D. Simpson would be ready to step up to AFL level. I think we should invest in one more ruckman in the coming years if none of these players have shown much.

Players not mentioned are still too raw to analyse or likely not to be with the cats IMO.

Conclusion:

We have enough young talent coming through to ensure we are still a premiership contender in three years. However, we will have quite an old list particularly in the midfield and small forward departments. I think we will focus on mids and small forwards/small backs in the coming few drafts to ensure there is a new wave coming through to replace Ling, Rooke, Ablett, Chapman, Enright, Corey etc.

 

[scottydeewah]

I would trade the next 10 years if someone could guarantee us back to back flags this year - stop worrying about it mate, put your faith in Wells and enjoy dominance that you may not see for the rest of your life!

 

[Rubberducky]

I've always thought we look well set up, as already posted we have the Key Positions covered, with the likes of Egan, Taylor, Hawkins, Simpson, West, Mumford, Nathan... History will show that these are the hardest to draft and develop so to have some depth that is showing signs early for a 3 year forecast should be good.

Midfield depth won't be an issue looking forward just yet, midfielders take less time to develop so it's more of a 2 year outlook at any given time in my opinion. Over the next 2 years we'll be able to continue to recruit as per list needs and focus on priorities coming to the end of year 2 for short term.

The list planning appears to be on track, you just couldn't doubt the team that put this list together!

 

[Faz 2000]

You guys will win this year in a romp. The only possible way that doesn't happen is if Hawthorn play one game totally out of left field and somehow pip you. But I don't see it happening.

I think the way for Geelong to stay at the top is to not stand still. Every year the roster stays the same and gets one year older, you're getting closer to a drop-off.

If, however, you find that for salary cap reasons or balance reasons some exceptional players need to be traded off, you turn them into HIGH draft picks and continually re-stock the cupboards.

So if, for example, there is salary-cap pressure this off-season that maybe means Paul Chapman or someone similar needs to be shipped, you make sure you get a 1st and a 2nd back for him, and re-load. No other team in the league could cover the loss of a Paul Chapman. But the Cats could and STILL be the best, plus have two brand new shiny super-talented kids on cheap contracts to push through in a few years.

That's how you can stay right near the top, I reckon.

And make no mistake, everyone else in the league is really just standing back and admiring where the Cats are at right now, they're that danm good. I'm THRILLED with the progress Carlton have made this year, but we're half a team and years off touching you guys.

 

[The Cork Soaker]

Number one priority for Geelong is to keep Stephen Wells at the club. He is without doubt the best recuiting manager in the comp.
Number one priority for the poster is to learn to spell.

 

[ant0s]

I would trade the next 10 years if someone could guarantee us back to back flags this year - stop worrying about it mate, put your faith in Wells and enjoy dominance that you may not see for the rest of your life!

you damn right

 

[candiehappy]

the fact is that the "system" is designed to send teams up and down the ladder. To be where we are without having hit the bottom is prety amazing, but others will attribute that to the father/son rule. Could be some merit in that!
I would have thought the issue in 5 years is the back line where we will have lost plenty. But I can't be bothered worrying about it - enjoy the moment!

 

[Duskfire]

Scarlett will still be around in three years surely. He'll only be 32? (not sure on that) and very rarely gets injured. Never seems tired. Obviously no one can read the future, but it wouldnt surprise me if he is still running around at 35 - albeit at a slightly different position.

 

[Budda 230]

I would trade the next 10 years if someone could guarantee us back to back flags this year - stop worrying about it mate, put your faith in Wells and enjoy dominance that you may not see for the rest of your life!

I'm sure that everyone who supports Geelong has faith in Wells. I'm also sure that all Geelong supporters are more than enjoying the dominance.

I think this is a great thread as I find the next 3 years a fascinating prospect. It is interesting, more than worrying, to try and assess which direction the club is going to take with an ageing list.

Appreciating how the dynasty was built and preserved is just as enjoyable as seeing Tom Harley hold up the Premiership Cup.

 

[cat in sydney]

Scarlett will still be around in three years surely. He'll only be 32? (not sure on that) and very rarely gets injured. Never seems tired. Obviously no one can read the future, but it wouldnt surprise me if he is still running around at 35 - albeit at a slightly different position.

100 goal per year Full Forward

 

[ant0s]

Faz was pretty spot on

 

[DanA]

Number one priority for Geelong is to keep Stephen Wells at the club. He is without doubt the best recuiting manager in the comp.
Number one priority for the poster is to learn to spell.

I think I read recently he has signed on for 3 more years

 

[SunKing]

History has shown in a few years you guys will be mid table or thereabouts. In 2002 people were saying the lions would be playing the next six GFs. Other teams will rise,players will retire or be war ravaged from being so long at the top,salary cap will squeeze out a few players etc. Trust me you won't be on top in three or four years so enjoy your time in the sun.

 

[Rik E Boy]

How far we bottom out really comes down to how well we have drafted. It's hard to say. In 3 years time we'll probably be without Scarlett, Milburn and Harley. Ottens, Wojo and Mooney will be on their last legs if they are still playing. Chappy, Enright and Corey won't be far behind. That is a far chunk of quality that is going to be hard to replace. Hawkins for Mooney is the obvious. Harry Taylor for Scarlett. Mackie will slot into the role of Milburn you would probably say. He might even take over from Scarlett if you look who he has manned up on this year. Blake and West will probably be our ruck department. Mumford maybe but I still rate West better than Mummy.

The good news for us is that in 3 years if we are starting to slide, the draft concessions for West Sydney and Gold Coast should have ended or that they have far less advantage. Our lowest finish in the past 25 years is 12th which is great but hinders in getting some really high draft picks. But as has been shown with this team, you don't need #1 draft picks to win a premiership. So it comes back to my first point. Comes down to picking good talent from the picks you have.

The most important person to retain at our club is Stephen Wells.

regards,

REB

 

[Copernicus]

Have to say I am not too worried about it. We have Mr. Wells in charge so I reckon he'll keep us competitive while our main core is still around.

With the midfield we have, I can't see us suffering any kind of major lapse any time in the next five years. All those 23-25 year old blokes we have will ensure that we'll stay pretty strong. Who knows, though.

 

[hamG]

It will be very interesting to see what path our list managers take. Basically, we either push for as many premierships with this list as it is or while still peaking make a few moves, shift out one or two of our latter aged midfielders (JC, Enright for example) for good draft picks with the intention to have great blokes ready and in the team at 20-23 years old while we still have Gaz, Jimmy, Selwood, Hawk, Egan, Harry etc still at prime playing age while still being able to push for top 4.

We built this list without crapping out in the AFL cellar, I hope we can make shrewd, harsh but smart moves to pull a double whammy of success before we'd need to pull the pin like everyone else does.

 

[Rik E Boy]

Getting back to this thread again I think the answer to the question posed was probably illustrated on how we handled the list after our premiership. Out the door went the honest but limited Callan and Playfair. Time up also for Charlie Gardiner who many would agree got more games than his ability entitled him to. Steven King was allowed to leave the club and this decision has been vindicated by the improved form and confidence of the much younger Mark Blake.

In the meantime we got more kids in. I believe we can do so again. Tenace will surely go and perhaps the time is near for D Johnson and Byrnes. A decision will have to be made on N Ablett also. I reckon we should retain Prismall and keep the pressure on players to remain in the league side. We need to keep one eye on the future, especially with the Ironmen (LOL) coming in soon and snaffling the draft picks at the end of next year.

If we recruit and draft prudently this year then we will have a younger group who can take up the baton when the established stars start to slow down, get hurt or hang up the boots.

regards,

REB