Where are St Kilda at?

[Richter]

The Saints must've had the best injury run of any team this year. Goes a long way.

Probably of any team, any year.

Our official injury list at the start of last week was one. Sam Fisher. Amazing.

Every chance that coming back from the bye we will have every single player on the list available for 1st team selection. Not sure that has ever happened before.

 

[Scotland]

The Saints must've had the best injury run of any team this year. Goes a long way.

They've only had 6 players play every game.

By the same token we've had 11. Most of teams have had 10+. Obviously just one measure and a few of their guys wouldn't have played every game if they were fit, but I know Montagna (in my Elite DT), Fisher and Riewoldt have each missed a few.

 

[BRUUUUCE]

S

The next Richmond or Melbourne if they do everything right. Don't have a bonafide superstar or AA jet with their best players older than other bottom clubs. Nolthing is guaranteed.

Should we tank like you guys and get pick ones that are soft as butter. Out of our last 2 drafts we definitely have future superstars will just take time billings will be A grade for sure

 

[hutchy31]

They've surprised me, that's for sure. I had them as spooners winning maybe 4-5 games, but they've been pretty good in most games with a lot of their youngsters coming on leaps and bounds. Looks like there might be another dogs v saints finals meeting in the not-too-distant future, with a better result hopefully....

Watching Steven and Armitage carve up games has made me more annoyed at losing Ward to GWS - we could really have done with some similar age/experience in the midfield, maybe would have helped us when things got tricky in a few of the games we've underperformed. Of course, playing with a ruck would also have helped (Hirdy, you're behind the times - Bevo has tried that tactic more than a few times this year).

All in all, they seem to be tracking well to me and probably ahead of schedule. Keep the group together, a couple more decent drafts and top up well via f.a when they're challenging and you could easily see a flag in their future.

 

[underthestars]

The Saints must've had the best injury run of any team this year. Goes a long way.

not at all. only half a dozen have played every game. almost all our experienced players have missed games with injury. right now however we're looking pretty good with fisher and roberton likely to return next game, Billings 50/50. But that can change very quickly. fingers crossed.

 

[Saintt]

not at all. only half a dozen have played every game. almost all our experienced players have missed games with injury. right now however we're looking pretty good with fisher and roberton likely to return next game, Billings 50/50. But that can change very quickly. fingers crossed.

Surely shin soreness isn't a 3 week injury?

 

[Theo X]

not at all. only half a dozen have played every game. almost all our experienced players have missed games with injury. right now however we're looking pretty good with fisher and roberton likely to return next game, Billings 50/50. But that can change very quickly. fingers crossed.

Have many players missed significant weeks though? (Apart from Gilbert of course) I haven't paid attention to your injury list 'till last week when I saw it was just Sam Fisher.

 

[Falchoon]

Surely shin soreness isn't a 3 week injury?

shin soreness is a euphemism for shin splints, will need to be managed.

 

[Lord_Bumfluff]

Have many players missed significant weeks though? (Apart from Gilbert of course) I haven't paid attention to your injury list 'till last week when I saw it was just Sam Fisher.

Markworth, Sippos, Seb Ross, Ray were all on the long term injury list until recently, that's why we had to put Sinclair and Schneider back on the rookie list

 

[Ron The Bear]

Fantastic table Ron.

From that I would split the teams in to groups...

Kids: GC, GWS
Youthful: Collingwood, Melbourne, St Kilda
Mature: the rest
Pensioners: North, Swans

Whole season:

Club|Avg Age|Opp|Diff|Median Age|Avg Gms|Opp|Diff|Median Gms
\Ad|24.76|24.93|-0.18|25.05|82.0|88.7|-6.7|71.5
\Br|23.46|24.81|-1.34|23.78|62.9|89.1|-26.2|57.5
\Ca|25.66|24.87|+0.79|25.53|89.9|89.0|+0.9|72.5
\Co|24.41|24.68|-0.27|23.23|80.5|82.9|-2.4|49.5
\Es|25.72|25.32|+0.40|25.20|107.5|97.4|+10.1|88.5
\Fr|26.74|25.02|+1.73|26.51|124.9|90.9|+33.9|110.0
\Ge|25.57|25.52|+0.05|24.19|106.2|100.0|+6.2|71.0
\GC|23.14|24.87|-1.73|22.65|55.8|89.9|-34.1|53.0
\GWS|23.49|24.64|-1.15|22.14|73.1|80.7|-7.6|56.5
\Ha|26.45|25.16|+1.29|26.16|122.3|92.5|+29.8|95.5
\Me|24.83|25.02|-0.19|24.86|80.5|90.5|-10.0|64.5
\NM|26.66|25.33|+1.33|26.81|124.2|98.8|+25.4|107.0
\PA|25.36|25.44|-0.08|25.05|103.2|99.3|+3.9|98.0
\Ri|24.82|25.39|-0.58|25.00|88.3|98.1|-9.8|71.5
\St|24.36|24.60|-0.24|23.83|73.5|81.6|-8.2|48.5
\Sy|26.76|25.31|+1.44|26.80|124.4|96.0|+28.4|123.0
\WC|24.84|25.13|-0.29|25.03|86.1|92.0|-5.9|93.5
\WB|24.27|25.36|-1.09|22.67|63.9|95.8|-32.0|35.5

A simplistic assessment based on looking at such figures for a few years:
babies - GC, Br, GWS
young - WB, St, Co
should be playing finals or strongly contending - WC, Me, Ri, Ad
should be playing finals/pushing for top four - Es, Ca, Ge, PA
should be premiership contenders - Sy, Fr, NM, Ha

The above is not a gradual scale, it gets harder to move to the next category as you work down the list, and you don't get to the bottom as a matter of course, or by accident.

Have these sides ahead of the clock, pending results for the rest of the year:
GWS, will be insanely good in 2-3 years at this rate
Co, Buckley's work starting to come together

...and these behind:
Me, still spinning their wheels
Es, although I make some allowance for the skewing effect of Fletcher. It's not really an old list
Ca, need to rebuild
NM, alarm bells, long run of winnable games coming up though

 

[doggies ftw]

Bonts - highlights reel is great, but falling away after a fantastic start to the season. Neck and neck between him and Billings as to who will turn out better. Billings more consistent, with some X-factor, though not as proven to reach the heights as Bonts.

Stringer - agreed, he is terrific. Closest to compare, talent-wise, is Jack Lonnie who is a gun small forward.

McRae, Libba - excellent mids: our equiv are Steven and Arbitrage (obviously over 23); under 23 we have Acres, McKenzie and will spend our first pick this year on a mid

Boyd - not shown a lot so far, but obviously has a lot of promise. However, a lot of $$ has been spent with fingers crossed that he will. A huge amount has been risked on an unproven AFL talent. It may be that McCartin, who is our equivalent will actually work out as a 'better value' player than Boyd as he is more likely to buy in to the culture at St Kilda rather than the club having to entice him in with extra $$ as was the case with Boyd.

Lonie is comparable to Stringer in talent? right....

 

[WSmith]

Mmmmm been thinking ... Like hawthorn we will vwry good in 2017 when I believe Reiwoldt and Monty and dempster are still here doing well. And with GUNS having 3/4 years they will flourish.... But then I think we may drop off like hawthorn did as reiwoldt and co retire.

2017: Saints will play finals
2018, 2019: quick step backwards
2020 - 2026: will be the saints era, 3 flags.

 

[mad-saint-guy]

We are certainly ahead of where just about everyone predicted (myself included) at the start of the year. I suppose expectations were affected by our shocking run of injuries last year; our better player availability this year perhaps gives the impression that we have improved more than we actually have. Obviously teams usually fare much better in the second year of a new coach as well.

What is really encouraging is the intensity and effort shown by the 22 every week. I think we still need to recruit another 6-8 best 22 players before we have our next potential premiership list, but we're building a very solid core with a great attitude and team morale. Top priority has to be finding 2-3 elite midfielders, a gun key defender and an elite half back/wingman with serious pace.

 

[go you pups]

23 and Under

Bonti - Acres lol
Stringer - Billings, incomparable one is a flanker, the other is a tall fwd/midfield hybrid and has kicked the most AFL goals in his draft class
Boyd - McCartin
Libba - Dunstan
Wallis - Sinclair, incomparable one is a small fwd/mid rotation type, the other is an inside mid and manical tackling machine
Redpath (24 but only debuted last year) - Bruce (our KPF stocks are slim)
Johannisen - Webster
Honeychurch - Lonie
Campbell - Longer
Macrae - Ross
Roberts/Talia/Hamling - Goddard
- Membrey, our other mediums like Crameri/Grant are over 23

Wright lol, potential delist worthy, Roberton 24 at the end of the week Easton Wood who is 25 would be our closest comparable there

EFA and I haven't even mentioned Dahlhaus or Hrovat yet while Jong, Webb and Dale are contributing. Hunter is our only real problem at the moment.

 

[Doss]

Don't post spoilers, please.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Comparing St. Kilda vs Bulldogs, how about the games experienced of the two teams when they played:

It's useless to compare overall average and overall median unless you can compare player-for-player and like-for-like where the difference in experience comes: does it come at the beginning, middle or end? For example you can see here that St. Kilda played 9 largely inexperienced players (big gap between their 9th and 10th least experienced in Hickey and Weller) whilst you have to go all the way up to the 7th-most or 16th-least experienced player to get someone comparable to St. Kilda.

We had 2 players over 78 games experience, ergo we'll only have 2 players to replace in the medium to long term. St. Kilda had 9 players with similar experience, a lot more to replace in the medium to long term

 

[Richter]

Lonie is comparable to Stringer in talent? right....

Hence my comment "agreed. He is terrific" - which in the context of the original post is that I agree with the original poster that Stringer is far better than the St Kilda equivalent player.

So I presume that the sarcastic reply by you is because you simply did not understand the post.

 

[Richter]

Comparing St. Kilda vs Bulldogs, how about the games experienced of the two teams when they played:

It's useless to compare overall average and overall median unless you can compare player-for-player and like-for-like where the difference in experience comes: does it come at the beginning, middle or end? For example you can see here that St. Kilda played 9 largely inexperienced players (big gap between their 9th and 10th least experienced in Hickey and Weller) whilst you have to go all the way up to the 7th-most or 16th-least experienced player to get someone comparable to St. Kilda.

We had 2 players over 78 games experience, ergo we'll only have 2 players to replace in the medium to long term. St. Kilda had 9 players with similar experience, a lot more to replace in the medium to long term

That's a good table. But the most obvious gap there on the St. K list is the one after the top 5 players, who will as you say need to be replaced in the short term. After that every player is under 27. Bulldogs have 3 players over 28 who will also need to be replaced in the short term.

Of course the Dogs are further in to the rebuild than St Kilda are. But missing from that game also for us were 3 teenage first round picks who have already been earmarked to take over from some of the veteran players you noted.

 

[Enclosed_Animal]

Whole season:

Club|Avg Age|Opp|Diff|Median Age|Avg Gms|Opp|Diff|Median Gms
\Ad|24.76|24.93|-0.18|25.05|82.0|88.7|-6.7|71.5
\Br|23.46|24.81|-1.34|23.78|62.9|89.1|-26.2|57.5
\Ca|25.66|24.87|+0.79|25.53|89.9|89.0|+0.9|72.5
\Co|24.41|24.68|-0.27|23.23|80.5|82.9|-2.4|49.5
\Es|25.72|25.32|+0.40|25.20|107.5|97.4|+10.1|88.5
\Fr|26.74|25.02|+1.73|26.51|124.9|90.9|+33.9|110.0
\Ge|25.57|25.52|+0.05|24.19|106.2|100.0|+6.2|71.0
\GC|23.14|24.87|-1.73|22.65|55.8|89.9|-34.1|53.0
\GWS|23.49|24.64|-1.15|22.14|73.1|80.7|-7.6|56.5
\Ha|26.45|25.16|+1.29|26.16|122.3|92.5|+29.8|95.5
\Me|24.83|25.02|-0.19|24.86|80.5|90.5|-10.0|64.5
\NM|26.66|25.33|+1.33|26.81|124.2|98.8|+25.4|107.0
\PA|25.36|25.44|-0.08|25.05|103.2|99.3|+3.9|98.0
\Ri|24.82|25.39|-0.58|25.00|88.3|98.1|-9.8|71.5
\St|24.36|24.60|-0.24|23.83|73.5|81.6|-8.2|48.5
\Sy|26.76|25.31|+1.44|26.80|124.4|96.0|+28.4|123.0
\WC|24.84|25.13|-0.29|25.03|86.1|92.0|-5.9|93.5
\WB|24.27|25.36|-1.09|22.67|63.9|95.8|-32.0|35.5

A simplistic assessment based on looking at such figures for a few years:
babies - GC, Br, GWS
young - WB, St, Co
should be playing finals or strongly contending - WC, Me, Ri, Ad
should be playing finals/pushing for top four - Es, Ca, Ge, PA
should be premiership contenders - Sy, Fr, NM, Ha

The above is not a gradual scale, it gets harder to move to the next category as you work down the list, and you don't get to the bottom as a matter of course, or by accident.

Have these sides ahead of the clock, pending results for the rest of the year:
GWS, will be insanely good in 2-3 years at this rate
Co, Buckley's work starting to come together

...and these behind:
Me, still spinning their wheels
Es, although I make some allowance for the skewing effect of Fletcher. It's not really an old list
Ca, need to rebuild
NM, alarm bells, long run of winnable games coming up though

Very good analysis and a great way to compare apples with apples. Confirms a lot about where teams are at.

For me the two clear messages are:

GWS have the potential to be very very good for a long time and Carlton are faaaarked

 

[stfan]

McCartin is exciting by being a number 1 pick, but hasn't actually shown anything at AFL level. Looks a few years off it, so I wouldn't be banking him as the next Riewoldt just yet. It's not like Jesse Hogan who is already a jet after a handful of games. .

Though Jess also effectively sat out a year and so is 20.

However Hogan had huge wraps when taken whereas McCartn was ina year where the top end was not viewed as good as many. So I agree that McCartin quite possibly will not be as good as Hogan. But I think he will be more than handy once he strengthens up and builds his tank more.

And yes the Saints are still rebuilding. It is just what one is seeing at present looks to have them infront of the curve, rather than behind it.

 

[stfan]

The Saints must've had the best injury run of any team this year. Goes a long way.

Our list is low now.

But we started the year with a lot of injuries and at various stages have had many out including Roo, Joey and Fisher.

 

[Scary_Foot_9]

Bonts - highlights reel is great, but falling away after a fantastic start to the season. Neck and neck between him and Billings as to who will turn out better. Billings more consistent, with some X-factor, though not as proven to reach the heights as Bonts.

Billings is a terrific talent, rare abillity on his left peg, but here's two things he doesn't do, play in the middle and put up with a tag on a constant basis.

 

[stfan]

The next Richmond or Melbourne if they do everything right. Don't have a bonafide superstar or AA jet with their best players older than other bottom clubs. Nolthing is guaranteed.

And like picking up Judd did you the world of good....

 

[stfan]

Billings is a terrific talent, rare abillity on his left peg, but here's two things he doesn't do, play in the middle

err he was recruited as a HFF

and put up with a tag on a constant basis.

err aren't all forwards by definition tagged as they have a defender on them?

 

[Scary_Foot_9]

err he was recruited as a HFF

err aren't all forwards by defination tagged as they have a defender on them?

err if you spent a top 3 pick on a medium sized player who never spends significant time on ball you've got problems.

A large percentage of small defenders nowadays will significantly work off their opponent when they have the ball. For example when the Bulldogs played the Saints Billings "direct" oppenents would have been a mixture of Jason Johanissen, Robert Murphy and Matthew Boyd all of whom are given license to freelance.