Who is your 2022 AFL grand final pick

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I feel like if Geelong at least don't make the GF now it's a decent choke. It's theirs for the taking.

Geelong v someone I reckon

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I agree its a fail if we dont at least make the GF from here. Im not sure who else will make it i think sydney are a good shot to get there if they get top 2. Melbourne are still the best team in it but very out of form.
 

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The odd thing about Geelong is how they don't have any players where I think "how the hell are we going to stop them". Melbourne for instance have Gawn but I can't think of the Geelong equivalent. Not sure if that is a good or a bad thing for Geelong that I don't think they have that extreme star power in their side.

Probably cameron/hawkins but tbh now that we have a much more attacking gameplan and better complementary forwards than in the past (stengle is a gun and close is breaking out) we dont rely on them in the sense that if we get enough supply i back us to kick enough goals even if the big 2 dont get them. But i know what you mean we are a more even side than in the past which is why danger being frequently injured and selwood running on fumes doesnt impact us the way it would have in other years.

I think sydney have improved in this area too you dont rely on buddy and your other senior guys as much as you used to you are more even across the board.

Melbourne are still a threat simply because gawn petracca and oliver are all in the top 6-8 players in the comp so if they all fire in finals they can matchwin games but a lot of their other teammates are very out of form.
 
Geelong v Collingwood

Redemption a decade in the making.

I think that it looms as the most entertaining match up, and these two sides are no strangers to each other in finals. Seems like Cats and Pies play each other nearly every year in finals.
 
The odd thing about Geelong is how they don't have any players where I think "how the hell are we going to stop them". Melbourne for instance have Gawn but I can't think of the Geelong equivalent. Not sure if that is a good or a bad thing for Geelong that I don't think they have that extreme star power in their side.

The player who’s influence is hardest to curb I would say is Cameron.

He’s been touted as one of the best 2-3 players in the competition which is subjective and up for debate and he’s not going out there and kicking 4 goal quarters and clunking marks on blokes’ shoulders and kicking goals off it etc etc but I think it’s legitimate to say that he is the one player we’ve got at the moment who is finding a way to influence every game no matter what the flow of that game is. He’s running blokes off their feet, he’s kicking goals, he’s winning contested ball and clearances when needed.

Stewart is an excellent player and never plays a bad game but his intercepts and precise kicking won’t make us unstoppable if we can’t still get it past the middle or half forward

Cameron is the guy I’d be focusing on if I was a coach
 
From a Swans fan perspective I don't recall Cameron (or Hawkins) troubling us too much over time.

We're not big on gorilla defenders so I suspect we've usually managed to cut them out of the equation by shutting down their supply, and perhaps that's an answer for other teams against the Cats.
 
From a Swans fan perspective I don't recall Cameron (or Hawkins) troubling us too much over time.

We're not big on gorilla defenders so I suspect we've usually managed to cut them out of the equation by shutting down their supply, and perhaps that's an answer for other teams against the Cats.


Cameron averages 2 goals per game vs Sydney so slightly below average
Hawkins is about 1.96 so again a bit below average.

Off the top of my head Hawkins’ best football against Sydney has a few times been ruined by errant kicking
 
Cameron averages 2 goals per game vs Sydney so slightly below average
Hawkins is about 1.96 so again a bit below average.

Off the top of my head Hawkins’ best football against Sydney has a few times been ruined by errant kicking
Your post suggesting Cameron's best value to you does not necessarily appear in the score sheet under his name appeared after I'd penned my post and is perhaps a very relevant factor at play here.
 

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Your post suggesting Cameron's best value to you does not necessarily appear in the score sheet under his name appeared after I'd penned my post and is perhaps a very relevant factor at play here.


Even last night he kicked 2 and one of them was fairly opportunistic off the ground but he just runs and for all Hawkins’ attributes - and for a big guy he’s actually quicker than most people give him credit for - he’s never going to just run an opponent into submission. Cameron can do that and is doing that and it’s huge. Yes it’s cliched because the commentators mention it every game but Blicavs running combined with Cameron’s means there are going to be two very tired and logically very important opposition players called upon to bust themselves.

I think that’s something that we can really try and exploit. Putting real time into maybe two guys who can rotate off Cameron would be a starting point for an opponent I reckon
 
Think of it this way, which is often the case with premiership teams.

18 - GF
19 - PF
20 - SF
21 - miss
22 - ?

What’s changed that much in 4-5 years? Window is still there due to quality of the list. In fact all you’ve done is added to make it better.

Richmond prior to 17 made finals in 13,14,15 and missed 16. We made finals in 18, bombed for two years, won it last year. Hawks before 13?

12 - Runners up
11 - PF
10 - EF
09 - miss
08 - flag
07 - SF

Mate! Come on. This is how form lines trend. Even Eagles in 18.

17 - SF
16 - EF
15 - Runners up

Finishing 17th last year means squat. Your club was shot due to Buckley and Ed driving you deep into the mire. So much off field stuff happening. I am telling you, you look back at the previous periods of premiers and they’ll always be in the mix.

Collingwood is / has been in the *en mix!
Pies talking themselves down after 11 in a row and beating the reigning premiers 😂

They are in it up to their eyeballs.
 
Pies talking themselves down after 11 in a row and beating the reigning premiers 😂

They are in it up to their eyeballs.
If we beat Sydney and finish top 4, we can then afford to believe. Until then, we are less likely to win a flag from 5th and lower than any other side (Freo, Carlton and Richmond) that also finishes 5th-8th.
 
The odd thing about Geelong is how they don't have any players where I think "how the hell are we going to stop them". Melbourne for instance have Gawn but I can't think of the Geelong equivalent. Not sure if that is a good or a bad thing for Geelong that I don't think they have that extreme star power in their side.
Because we rely on a team first mentally/system now. Not individual players.

No extreme star power?
Hawkins
Selwood
Dangerfield
Stewart
Cameron

What on earth have you been watching? Certainly not Geelong games.
 
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Everyone’s got a different set of formulas around why Collingwood can or can’t win this year’s premiership based on previous season data. The one doing the rounds is our percentage and no side winning a flag with 106%. There’s multiple ways to look at it.

My views above are based on this season, which is technically the past too I guess.

Either way, it’s exciting and I’m loving the crunch games we’ve got for Rounds 21, 22 and 23 - this season has come alive!

So much can happen in the next few weeks and first couple of weeks of finals. There’s seriously no guessing who’ll be winning it this year, and it’s bloody great.
My set of formulas is right.
 
The odd thing about Geelong is how they don't have any players where I think "how the hell are we going to stop them". Melbourne for instance have Gawn but I can't think of the Geelong equivalent. Not sure if that is a good or a bad thing for Geelong that I don't think they have that extreme star power in their side.
You don’t watch Geelong very closely if this your assumption.
 
Another one from the odd 'century before' trend of Grand Final coincidences that has been going for 12 years now, perhaps Sydney Swans for premiers, given South Melbourne were last in 1922?
 
Geelong-Sydney will probably be a relaxed and comfortable buildup without worrying about losing.

Would also be interesting as both the Cats and Swans were 8th and 9th in 1922
 
Out of curiosity, why do McKay/Curnow concern you but Hawkins/Cameron don't? It would be the same principle wouldn't it?
Honestly not sure, I think I see the Curnow and McKay combo as stronger and better in the air (plus I swear I rarely see a point between them!)

Hawkins and Cameron ofcourse are the more experienced and professional key forward pairing on the comp and are both having great years, but for whatever reason I feel we are more likely to contain them in a final.
 

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