Who replaces Will in the midfield rotation?

[BuntonRules]

Just out of curiosity 3KZ (without the derailing) - who would you have taken form that 2017 draft. Only reason i ask is I'm not sure it is apples for apples when comparing where other number ones have gone post Cam. You can really only compare with who was available in the 2017 draft as that where the pick lies. There are a few that stand out but not heaps.

Even this is not really fair. Who did you want at the time? I had Dow in front of LDU

 

[Dalions]

Bailey confirmed to miss another week.
So it is down to Dev or Lyons to bring in to replace Will.
I would go Dev personally

 

[Voss the boss]

Even this is not really fair. Who did you want at the time? I had Dow in front of LDU

Great question but i didn't know enough re the cohort coming through (nor would i now). However I do remember thinking though we should not go vanilla with Brayshaw (no idea why I thought that) - but the more I watch now the more i think consistency is the key so would have welcomed him with open arms now!

 

[DERRINALPHIL]

Yeah it wasn’t the greatest draft ever, although you could definitely make an argument that Brayshaw, LDU and Cerra were all better and certainly more consistent players from the top 5.

Having said that I still think Rayner has more capacity to tear a finals series apart then them, which is what we need. We just need to find him a position to do that.

I do not agree. LDU if he gets an injury free year could be anything.

 

[M Malice]

Now with the injury to Ashcroft, people are suggesting that Cam Rayner could cover for him in the midfield, but the universal view is that he couldn’t do so full time because he lacks the physical endurance. The fact that a 23 year old player who stands at 187cm has not developed the capacity to run a game out as part of a midfield rotation is, I think, an indictment of the player and our fitness staff.

The extent to which Rayner is utilised to cover for the loss of Ashcroft will be up to Fagan and the football department. My concern is that with another Finals campaign looming, we are going to get more of the same from Cam. The best way he can help us to cover for the loss of Ashcroft is for him to FIRE UP and fulfil his potential. We need less sniff the cheese celebrations, funny pre-prepared hand shakes and jolly japes and more consistent, hard at it, blue collar football from Rayner. He should look at the tough and disciplined approach Jason Horne-Francis, who has just turned 20 and is in his second season, brings and try emulate it. When people try to defend Cam Rayner, they will point to a handful of games where he has dominated, whereas other players, like those listed above, can point to entire seasons.

Elite endurance capacity has a genetic component to it, some players will just never have the endurance to be A grade AFL midfielders and Cam is probably one.

We have another one on our list who is similar in Rhys Mathieson, I have been to many training sessions since Rhys has been on our list and he continually busts a gut in the running drills, it has also been pointed out that he has spent off seasons training with noted runners like Berry and McCluggage, no matter what he does he just doesn't seem to able to get there. Daniel Rich is another.

I still think Rayner has the potential to be a really explosive high impact per possession(17-20 possessions) mid/fwd player for us.

 

[3KZ is Football]

Elite endurance capacity has a genetic component to it, some players will just never have the endurance to be A grade AFL midfielders and Cam is probably one.

We have another one on our list who is similar in Rhys Mathieson, I have been to many training sessions since Rhys has been on our list and he continually busts a gut in the running drills, it has also been pointed out that he has spent off seasons training with noted runners like Berry and McCluggage, no matter what he does he just doesn't seem to able to get there. Daniel Rich is another.

I still think Rayner has the potential to be a really explosive high impact per possession(17-20 possessions) mid/fwd player for us.

Just looking at his numbers to date: Rayner has had a return of 17+ disposals in 16 of 105 games which is just a tick over 15% of his games. At the same time in 28 of his 105 games his disposals have been in single figures, which translates at a whisker under 27% of his games. Disposal efficiency over that period has been just under 70%. Cam has averaged 0.9 goals a game and goal assists are at 0.56 per game. By way of comparison, Linc McCarthy is averaging 1.1 goals a game and 0.57 goal assists, Zac Bailey 1.03 goals per game and 0.48 goal assists, Dayne Zorko 0.91 goals per match and 0.74 goal assists, Hugh McCluggage has an average of 0.61 goals a game and 0.77 goal assists and finally Charlie Cameron averages 1.76 goals per game and 0.66 goal assists.

The reason I quote these figures is that often people will suggest that Cam Rayner is a low disposal and high impact player, but that is not borne out by his stats when compared to his most immediate teammates. I would love Cam Rayner to step up and replace Will Ashcroft, but he just isn’t capable, based on how hard he has worked and where his career is at. I go back to what I have said before, by continually selecting Cam, irrespective of form, Fagan has not socialised Rayner in a way that is going to see him really busting a gut to wring every bit of possible improvement out of himself. If he were fit and available, I would prefer Mathieson to replace Ashcroft over Rayner every time.

 

[M Malice]

Just looking at his numbers to date: Rayner has had a return of 17+ disposals in 16 of 105 games which is just a tick over 15% of his games. At the same time in 28 of his 105 games his disposals have been in single figures, which translates at a whisker under 27% of his games. Disposal efficiency over that period has been just under 70%. Cam has averaged 0.9 goals a game and goal assists are at 0.56 per game. By way of comparison, Linc McCarthy is averaging 1.1 goals a game and 0.57 goal assists, Zac Bailey 1.03 goals per game and 0.48 goal assists, Dayne Zorko 0.91 goals per match and 0.74 goal assists, Hugh McCluggage has an average of 0.61 goals a game and 0.77 goal assists and finally Charlie Cameron averages 1.76 goals per game and 0.66 goal assists.

The reason I quote these figures is that often people will suggest that Cam Rayner is a low disposal and high impact player, but that is not borne out by his stats when compared to his most immediate teammates. I would love Cam Rayner to step up and replace Will Ashcroft, but he just isn’t capable, based on how hard he has worked and where his career is at. I go back to what I have said before, by continually selecting Cam, irrespective of form, Fagan has not socialised Rayner in a way that is going to see him really busting a gut to wring every bit of possible improvement out of himself. If he were fit and available, I would prefer Mathieson to replace Ashcroft over Rayner every time.

Cam might only need to have 1 elite game to play a huge part in a flag .... I wouldn't put it past him to rip a Prelim or Grand Final apart with a 18 possession, 4 goals, tackle busts, fend offs, bursts from stoppages, crunching tackles type game.

 

[CarterS]

Surprised if it's not Lyons for a straight swap but I do get the criticism about his defensive work.

 

[3KZ is Football]

Cam might only need to have 1 elite game to play a huge part in a flag .... I wouldn't put it past him to rip a Prelim or Grand Final apart with a 18 possession, 4 goals, tackle busts, fend offs, bursts from stoppages, crunching tackles type game.

Well there is about a 15% chance that might happen on exposed form.

 

[dlanod]

Even this is not really fair. Who did you want at the time? I had Dow in front of LDU

I vaguely recall having Dow as my second option but Rayner as a clear 1

 

[dlanod]

Cam might only need to have 1 elite game to play a huge part in a flag .... I wouldn't put it past him to rip a Prelim or Grand Final apart with a 18 possession, 4 goals, tackle busts, fend offs, bursts from stoppages, crunching tackles type game.

Tom Boyd had done less before getting the Dogs a premiership

 

[martinson]

It's not Cam's fault we selected him at No.1.

Having said that with Ashcroft and Bailey out it's a good opportunity for him to step up and turn those glimpses of brilliance into a more consistent 4 quarter effort.

For him to do that we need to get him into a more prominent role and see what he's got. Maybe he'll just always be a dangerous flanker who can bust it open occasionally or maybe he can be better than that. He's still young enough to keep improving.

 

[briztoon]

I vaguely recall having Dow as my second option but Rayner as a clear 1

1st pick LDU. 2nd pick Allen. Worpel with our 4th pick.

But the club had Brayshaw as their other choice.

 

[martinson]

1st pick LDU. 2nd pick Allen. Worpel with our 4th pick.

But the club had Brayshaw as their other choice.

Hmmmm.

It's all easy in hindsight isn't it.

I think a big part of us picking Cam was his looks and personality and we used him in marketing at the time when we were craving attention.

Not that we didn't think he also had the talent. Just a matter now of him delivering on it.

 

[notliondown]

As much as I don't think Rayner has lived up to expectations or perhaps ever will, there's a few here forgetting exactly what we needed when we selected him in the draft.

We needed a player with spirit, with enthusiasm, with a willingness to come to Brisbane and stick it out and be part of the glue and fabric of the club. This was 2017.

And in those regards Cam has excelled.

Maybe he'll never be what we all hoped for as a player, but as someone who has helped the club become what it has he can't be underestimated. His contribution is probably more valuable off field than on.

 

[briztoon]

Hmmmm.

It's all easy in hindsight isn't it.

I think a big part of us picking Cam was his looks and personality and we used him in marketing at the time when we were craving attention.

Not that we didn't think he also had the talent. Just a matter now of him delivering on it.

That wasn't hindsight. They were my prefered picks at the time, predraft in 2017.

 

[martinson]

That wasn't hindsight. They were my prefered picks at the time, predraft in 2017.

For sure. Wasn't directing my comment at you.

They were great picks.

 

[BRAB]

As much as I don't think Rayner has lived up to expectations or perhaps ever will, there's a few here forgetting exactly what we needed when we selected him in the draft.

We needed a player with spirit, with enthusiasm, with a willingness to come to Brisbane and stick it out and be part of the glue and fabric of the club. This was 2017.

And in those regards Cam has excelled.

Maybe he'll never be what we all hoped for as a player, but as someone who has helped the club become what it has he can't be underestimated. His contribution is probably more valuable off field than on.

Kind of wish we used pick 50 on a vibes pick instead of pick 1 tbh.

 

[Nunez]

Kind of wish we used pick 50 on a vibes pick instead of pick 1 tbh.

Will be hilarious when he dominates the next two months of football, starting with his back to the goals.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Elite endurance capacity has a genetic component to it, some players will just never have the endurance to be A grade AFL midfielders and Cam is probably one.

I wonder if this could be the main reason why we might resign Sharp for another 1-2 years in the future then.

 

[3KZ is Football]

Kind of wish we used pick 50 on a vibes pick instead of pick 1 tbh.

The podcast is fun and what’s not to like about sniff the cheese or the cheese grater or whatever that is.

 

[Sanchez365]

Lyons I suppose would be interesting. It's not like Ashcroft has been particularly defensive in his play. Obviously I am in the preference as I think Lyons offensive weapons aren't enough to outweigh his defensive liabilities, but the more I think about it I don't really see Fagan going any other way.

 

[irel]

As much as I don't think Rayner has lived up to expectations or perhaps ever will, there's a few here forgetting exactly what we needed when we selected him in the draft.

We needed a player with spirit, with enthusiasm, with a willingness to come to Brisbane and stick it out and be part of the glue and fabric of the club. This was 2017.

And in those regards Cam has excelled.

Maybe he'll never be what we all hoped for as a player, but as someone who has helped the club become what it has he can't be underestimated. His contribution is probably more valuable off field than on.

This is 100% accurate. To add, oh how people flavour the narrative to suit their hindsight. My recollection and my narrative is that at the time Rayner, Dow and LDU were considered top three with Rayner clear number one. It was only during a Conole interview that he also included Brayshaw as a player in our thinking.

Although Canole did not specifically say it, one could read from that, for us it was between Rayner or Brayshaw. We chose Rayner for exactly the reasons you outlined.

LDU may have been discussed by BF nuffies like us however in reality LDU was out of calculation because there were strong rumors, he made it quite clear he was going to miss mommy’s bosom too much. I still remember the scenes of LDU in embrace with his parents in tears of relief when he was selected by North and not having to leave home.

As for Dow, thank god our recruiting team had more sense than nuffies here.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Not really adding anything new here except to express my opinion that Dev should come in for this week, and that Bailey comes in for Dev once fit.

Also I wonder if we would take Zac to Perth for his first game back, particularly with a 6 day break coming up after that.

On the other hand, the cynic in me questions whether we would want to take Dev to Perth where an opposition scout or club might have the chance to take him out for a coffee while he is "visiting friends and relatives"

The only other thing I wanted to add is if our net change to Saturday's team against Geelong is Ashcroft out, Bailey in, does this give us enough midfield rotations? Is this partly the reason why we are struggling to run games out?

Finally, if Dev/Lyons/whoever comes into the 22, and stays once Bailey returns, who gets omitted?

 

[Dalions]

Not really adding anything new here except to express my opinion that Dev should come in for this week, and that Bailey comes in for Dev once fit.

Also I wonder if we would take Zac to Perth for his first game back, particularly with a 6 day break coming up after that.

On the other hand, the cynic in me questions whether we would want to take Dev to Perth where an opposition scout or club might have the chance to take him out for a coffee while he is "visiting friends and relatives"

The only other thing I wanted to add is if our net change to Saturday's team against Geelong is Ashcroft out, Bailey in, does this give us enough midfield rotations? Is this partly the reason why we are struggling to run games out?

Finally, if Dev/Lyons/whoever comes into the 22, and stays once Bailey returns, who gets omitted?

Personally I think, that when fit, Bailey comes in for Will and that is our best 22 moving forward for this year.
So whoever comes in for Will this week ie Dev or Lyons, will go out for Bailey next week.