Analysis Why are we s**t?

[Zach Package]

i don't mind them, but you want to see progress. take the 5 years post-ban.

Woosha era
'17 - Make finals. Seem to pat ourselves on the back despite losing by 10 goals.
'18 - Win/Loss stays the same, as does %. Tread water.
'19 - Win/Loss stays the same. % drops by 10. Lose another final by 10 goals.
'20 - Hit a low lower than the drugs years. Feeling around the club gives less hope.

Rutten era
'21 - Make finals with one less win but better % than recent years. Lose by 10 goals.
'22 - Shaping up as a finals miss.

Make finals, drop, make finals was a theme with Knights as it was Hird, then Woosha.
i am yet to be convinced the club knows how to take the next step.

I don’t really think this emphasises what you think it does.

Top 10 in the 2017 bnf was (in order)
Daniher
Goddard
Heppell
Merrett
Zaharakis
Hurley
AMT
Fantasia
Hooker
Kelly

So 4 retires, 2 in their prime guns request trades away, Heppell is physically finished, AMT a slow road back after some problems, Hurley on the road back from literal near death and Merrett is our best player.

There’s no linear upward progression from then to now because we’ve essentially turned the whole list over since then and started over, it’s actually remarkable we’ve managed to bob around in the middle of the ladder while doing so, but it’s been to our detriment because other sides have beaten us to be bottom, reloaded and come again.

Contrast that with the Dees 2017 BnF, 11 of the top 20 ended up playing in their flag last year.

You’d be looking at the guys that were drafted between 2016 and 2022 as the next clutch of players to drive the group forward, there’s some serious talent there but they need time to grow together as the Dees did. And then maybe an acquisition or two to fill a need like Langdon or May once the needs become apparent.

 

[Albertross]

For everything heppell does good he does something also quite bad.

he is Slow and has poor disposal by foot and hand. I don't question his work ethic. But he is a liability on the backline.

Work ethic is our biggest issue though. That's why players such as Durham, Guelfi, Snelling get praised. Not the most talented, but **** me they at least put in to make a contest and do the team thing.

Most of the team have over estimated their ability with a dicky disposal that misses the target. We are not Melbourne. I can live with that though, mostly.

What shits me is the complete lack of defensive effort. The unwillingness to chase, to get to a contest. Most of the side are guilty of this and therefore a liability. The whole midfield are guilty of this.

I hate losing, but if we at least put in the effort, the loss doesn't sting as much. This season smells like 2020.

 

[eth-dog]

Dust settled… are we really shit?

Not really, imo.

We’re average though. I think we basically had to start again in 2021 both in terms of the team and having a coach who had half a clue.

We rode a nice curve upward pretty much all last year and life seemed good, but it doesn’t just happen in a linear fashion.

We’re still a very young team.

We have substantial injuries at the moment.

Our draw last year flattered us in the end. Our record against good sides was terrible.

We’ve faced some bloody good sides in the first five weeks - incl Freo who are a fair bit ahead of what many people realise.

We are still very, very much in the throes of rebuild. Everybody was super positive last year, Merrett went from supposedly nearly leaving to signing a long term deal because he wanted to be part of the future. I don’t think you throw all that away in the space of a month.

We have to keep getting games into Caldwell (19 games), Cox (25), Draper (26), Durham (11), Hobbs (1), Jones (16), Martin (4), Perkins (26) and Reid (1). We need to work out Cox’s position and Jones and Reid’s bodies are a concern. But they’re the focus.

Nailed it.

We basically have no midfield depth. If we include Merrett (which we shouldn't) we have 6 inside midfielders on the list in McGrath, Parish, Caldwell, Merrett, Hobbs and Shiel. Plenty of wingers with guys like Langford, Durham, Martin, Cutler and Ham at a minimum.

Freo started their rebuild in 2017. Their core of Darcy, Brayshaw, Lobb, Taberner, Ryan, Pearce, Cox and Schultz (although he didn't line up) have all played a lot of footy together and they've nailed most of their drafts in that time, as well as getting the right trades at the right times. They're a genuine top 6 side this year and could go deep in September IMO.

 

[citizen-erased]

I don’t really think this emphasises what you think it does.

Top 10 in the 2017 bnf was (in order)
Daniher
Goddard
Heppell
Merrett
Zaharakis
Hurley
AMT
Fantasia
Hooker
Kelly

So 4 retires, 2 in their prime guns request trades away, Heppell is physically finished, AMT a slow road back after some problems, Hurley on the road back from literal near death and Merrett is our best player.

There’s no linear upward progression from then to now because we’ve essentially turned the whole list over since then and started over, it’s actually remarkable we’ve managed to bob around in the middle of the ladder while doing so, but it’s been to our detriment because other sides have beaten us to be bottom, reloaded and come again.

Contrast that with the Dees 2017 BnF, 11 of the top 20 ended up playing in their flag last year.

You’d be looking at the guys that were drafted between 2016 and 2022 as the next clutch of players to drive the group forward, there’s some serious talent there but they need time to grow together as the Dees did. And then maybe an acquisition or two to fill a need like Langdon or May once the needs become apparent.

of their top 10, not that different

Oliver
Viney
Jones
Lewis
Jetta
Hibberd
Tracc
Garlett
McDonald
Tyson

if you take a look at their drafting over that time, they've just hit so many
Jackson, Kosi, Bowey, Sparrow, Fritsch, Spargo, Rivers all part of the GF side.

Added May, Lever, Brown, Langdon and Tomlinson at the same time as drafting them too

they're doing recruitment, development, fitness and coaching a lot better than us.

 

[citizen-erased]

Dust settled… are we really shit?

Not really, imo.

We’re average though. I think we basically had to start again in 2021 both in terms of the team and having a coach who had half a clue.

We rode a nice curve upward pretty much all last year and life seemed good, but it doesn’t just happen in a linear fashion.

We’re still a very young team.

We have substantial injuries at the moment.

Our draw last year flattered us in the end. Our record against good sides was terrible.

We’ve faced some bloody good sides in the first five weeks - incl Freo who are a fair bit ahead of what many people realise.

We are still very, very much in the throes of rebuild. Everybody was super positive last year, Merrett went from supposedly nearly leaving to signing a long term deal because he wanted to be part of the future. I don’t think you throw all that away in the space of a month.

We have to keep getting games into Caldwell (19 games), Cox (25), Draper (26), Durham (11), Hobbs (1), Jones (16), Martin (4), Perkins (26) and Reid (1). We need to work out Cox’s position and Jones and Reid’s bodies are a concern. But they’re the focus.

I think you can walk off the geelong game. They're a good contested team.

The next 3 werent good. Everyone talks about being better against good teams, but melb and brissy barely warmed up against us.

Crows game was a defence-less shootout that could have gone either way.

Then this.

Its just all too familiar ground we've been on for 2 decades.
Hard to be positive there is a light at the end of a tunnel when we've spent so long here

 

[fairbump_playon]

Have to remember we are playing 4-5 20 year old kids every week.
Martin, Cox, Perk, Durham, Hobbs. They are effectively replacing Stringer, Langford, Snelling and Merrett.

That’s a massive impact on our ability to run out games, and compete against the bigger stronger teams.

Having said that, Freo had at least that many 20 or under

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Five of the Top 10 in the BnF last year were not out there yesterday.

One of our top five goal scorers last year was out there yesterday.

We were an 11-11 side last year.

I am more amazed that people think we should be more competitive rather than where we sit on the ladder.

I don't think people really care if we lose as long as we compete in the contest, rather on the scoreboard. What happened yesterday was anything short of competition. There we people walking/jogging while Fremantle players were running/sprinting.

I don't care if we lose as long as the guys walk off the ground spent, and give it their all. That was not yesterday.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

I don't think people really care if we lose as long as we compete in the contest, rather on the scoreboard. What happened yesterday was anything short of competition. There we people walking/jogging while Fremantle players were running/sprinting.

I don't care if we lose as long as the guys walk off the ground spent, and give it their all. That was not yesterday.

It was definitely the case, particularly in the second half. It also happened against Geelong. Two uncompetitive displays in five rounds is unacceptable.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

It was definitely the case, particularly in the second half. It also happened against Geelong. Two uncompetitive displays in five rounds is unacceptable.

yep and too me that's cultural, there is no fire in bellies.

Essendon might as well be a superannuation company. That's all it delivers. Woosha was a complete soft **** as a coach and i wouldn't be surprised if that culture still remained. Truck needs to sort it out ASAP.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

yep and too me that's cultural, there is no fire in bellies.

Essendon might as well be a superannuation company. That's all it delivers. Woosha was a complete soft **** as a coach and i wouldn't be surprised if that culture still remained. Truck needs to sort it out ASAP.

I'm of the same opinion re Worsfold. He was a very poor coach and his re-signing to a second contract was a massive error which gets overshadowed by the drug saga.

I've got faith in Rutten.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

I'm of the same opinion re Worsfold. He was a very poor coach and his re-signing to a second contract was a massive error which gets overshadowed by the drug saga.

I've got faith in Rutten.

Wooshas job was to get through 2016. I get that. he needed to hold hands and sing gentle tunes to players to make hem feel OK. The problem is he turned the place into an IT company. There was Zero competition for spots and absolute hacks kept getting games.

I thought Truck would be different. I'm yet to see it.

 

[NAB777]

Just as an aside - anyone else think we should get back to the MCG?

 

[yodellinhank]

Just as an aside - anyone else think we should get back to the MCG?

Unfortunately we're probably too shit now. Back in the day we were averaging over 50k. We're under that now even with all the dead pet members the club keeps on the books.

 

[Goat Hird]

yep and too me that's cultural, there is no fire in bellies.

Essendon might as well be a superannuation company. That's all it delivers. Woosha was a complete soft **** as a coach and i wouldn't be surprised if that culture still remained. Truck needs to sort it out ASAP.

Honestly, Truck looks just as much of a soft ****. Does he have the balls to drop a key player like Parish for casually jogging back on d? Kane was bang on last night in saying that our guys are selfish; If we don't have the ball, we're not interested.

 

[tonygeeks]

Chin up folks , Merret , stringer and tippa for 3 of your lesser lights and that is a different game entirely


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Foxx]

Chin up folks , Merret , stringer and tippa for 3 of your lesser lights and that is a different game entirely


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

It's not just that game mate. A club that hasn't won a final in 18 years has a much deeper problem.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Chin up folks , Merret , stringer and tippa for 3 of your lesser lights and that is a different game entirely


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

3 players doesn't change a teams culture.

We don't care if we win, but players walking whilst your mob are running is the issue.

 

[tonygeeks]

It's not just that game mate. A club that hasn't won a final in 18 years has a much deeper problem.

Yeah fair enough , wrong thread


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Bombers1234]

Medical and fitness department is a huge issue. Very hard to judge the players and coaches when we consistently haven't had our best 22 on the park. Is this a legacy from the supplements saga perhaps? Maybe there is a directive/culture to not 'push the envelope' regarding the best medical practices.

It also pains me to say, but the foregoing of 1st and 2nd round draft picks to acquire the likes of Shiel, Stringer, Smith etc was in hindsight a poor strategy. Brisbane Lions went down the path of accumulating youngsters for 5-6 years before they recruited Daniher, Neale to top up their list. Feel we should have been drafting in those years (circa 2017-19) instead of poaching senior players.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Medical and fitness department is a huge issue. Very hard to judge the players and coaches when we consistently haven't had our best 22 on the park. Is this a legacy from the supplements saga perhaps? Maybe there is a directive/culture to not 'push the envelope' regarding the best medical practices.

It also pains me to say, but the foregoing of 1st and 2nd round draft picks to acquire the likes of Shiel, Stringer, Smith etc was in hindsight a poor strategy. Brisbane Lions went down the path of accumulating youngsters for 5-6 years before they recruited Daniher, Neale to top up their list. Feel we should have been drafting in those years (circa 2017-19) instead of poaching senior players.

I disagree tbh on the last bit.

Stringer was a good get. He wins games. He wasn't injury prone when he came to us though you could blame us not getting him right.

Smith was a good get at the time. His first Year he was an absolute jet, again injuries since joining us have gotten the better of him.

Shiel though was 100% a bad trade. his disposal is below avg at best and simply is not worth what we gave for him.

 

[TheGrizz]

The reality is it will take 2 more years of solid drafting to turn this list over.

I would be surprised if the club sees players like Guelfi, Smith, Stewart, Zerk-Thatcher etc as long term viable options and a part of our next successful team.

But Rome isn't built in a day, and the club has now added 4 first round picks in two years and will likely need another 3/4 more over the next two years plus hitting on a few 2nd and 3rd round gems. The majority of our next successful list build isn't drafted yet.

I would encourage everyone to look at Carltons list build. Loaded up on KPP prospects in 2015, and then added elite mids around them as they developed like Walsh, Kennedy etc. Calrton are only now seeing the benefit of their list build 6/7 years later. If we consider 2020 to be our bottom out, we have a couple more years of drafting to go whilst Jones/Reid/Cox etc grow into their KPP roles at AFL level.

 

[Beerfish]

Adrian Dodoro could be the water boy and he'd still be the one people talk about on BigFooty

No wonder the water tastes average and hasn't won a final in 20 years.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Medical and fitness department is a huge issue. Very hard to judge the players and coaches when we consistently haven't had our best 22 on the park. Is this a legacy from the supplements saga perhaps? Maybe there is a directive/culture to not 'push the envelope' regarding the best medical practices.

It also pains me to say, but the foregoing of 1st and 2nd round draft picks to acquire the likes of Shiel, Stringer, Smith etc was in hindsight a poor strategy. Brisbane Lions went down the path of accumulating youngsters for 5-6 years before they recruited Daniher, Neale to top up their list. Feel we should have been drafting in those years (circa 2017-19) instead of poaching senior players.

It’s an approach that the club abandoned in 2020 in favour of a draft-driven rebuild. Since then we've brought in

Wright - cost a fourth rounder and has been a superb trade
Caldwell - 20yo with 11 games to his name
Hind - cost a fourth rounder and an immediate replacement for Saad/McKenna
Cox - National draft
Perkins - National draft
Reid - National draft
Eyre - NGA
Brand - NGA
Durham - MSD
Kelly - FA
Hobbs - National draft
Lord - National draft
McDonagh - National draft
Voss - Rookie
Wanganeen - Supp selection
Martin - Supp selection

So tbf, they have totally switched paths.

 

[eth-dog]

It’s an approach that the club abandoned in 2020 in favour of a draft-driven rebuild. Since then we've brought in

Wright - cost a fourth rounder and has been a superb trade
Caldwell - 20yo with 11 games to his name
Hind - cost a fourth rounder and an immediate replacement for Saad/McKenna
Cox - National draft
Perkins - National draft
Reid - National draft
Eyre - NGA
Brand - NGA
Durham - MSD
Kelly - FA
Hobbs - National draft
Lord - National draft
McDonagh - National draft
Voss - Rookie
Wanganeen - Supp selection
Martin - Supp selection

So tbf, they have totally switched paths.

Caldwell did cost 2x seconds but otherwise yes.

 

[yodellinhank]

I disagree tbh on the last bit.

Stringer was a good get. He wins games. He wasn't injury prone when he came to us though you could blame us not getting him right.

Smith was a good get at the time. His first Year he was an absolute jet, again injuries since joining us have gotten the better of him.

Shiel though was 100% a bad trade. his disposal is below avg at best and simply is not worth what we gave for him.

How many games has Stringer won?