Wiz's view on X-El:

[FIGJAM]

Colin Wisbey's comments on Xavier Ellis.

He is one of only a small number of TAC kids for whom I don't have measurements. Visually, wouldn't be at all surprised if he does have a comparative reach advantage though.

His GF wasn't his best or worst game but is typical of how he plays. Elite user in space, good vision and hands in close, clean all levels, deceptively good (for someone skinny) overhead, unaccountable, runs hard forward of the ball (but not so hard the other way), handy pace but not a noted ball-carrier. Predator rather than First Dibs.

FWIW, I am a bit out of kilter with mainstream ratings re Ellis. Although I do like him, in my rankings he sits a few spots behind where "everyone" else seems to have him. I thought his GF form was quite good and representative of what he has to offer. By this stage though, it wouldn't have mattered to me whether he played a blinder or a shocker (not that Ellis ever plays a shocker) in the GF. A lot to like about him but he definitely won't be #1 (or even in the first handful) in my rankings.

At the same age, he reminds me a lot of Sam Power. I would describe his style as a cross between Sam Power and Dal Santo but Dal Santo gets more hard ball than Ellis.

Interesting comments.

I do think Wiz has a tendency to rate the skinny "outsiders" lower than the stronger ball winners. He did push out his ranking of Dal Santo to third round pick, which in hindsight looks riddiculous, but conversely he was right about Sam Power's AFL ability (or lack thereof) when most others thought he was going to be a gun (including the recruiting guru Scott Clayton).

I've only seen the kid play a half, so I can't really comment, but on initial impression, I do think he's got a hell of a lot more AFL potential than Sam Power!

I still think Colin rates Hurn at #1.

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

I still think Colin rates Hurn at #1.

I see Hurn as being pretty similar to Luke Hodge, perhaps with a little less midfield ability, and Wiz ranked Hodge at #1 that year, so you are kind of right in saying that he does lean towards stronger players.

I don't think this said anything we didn't really know about Ellis already. His ability to get the hard ball is partly hampered by the fact that he doesn't have the body to go in for it. When he bulks up, it is likely that he'll improve in that area.

No draftee is perfect, but Ellis' main fault is how skinny he is, which is one of the easier things to fix.

 

[Murray]

I see Hurn as being pretty similar to Luke Hodge, perhaps with a little less midfield ability, and Wiz ranked Hodge at #1 that year, so you are kind of right in saying that he does lean towards stronger players.

I don't think this said anything we didn't really know about Ellis already. His ability to get the hard ball is partly hampered by the fact that he doesn't have the body to go in for it. When he bulks up, it is likely that he'll improve in that area.

No draftee is perfect, but Ellis' main fault is how skinny he is, which is one of the easier things to fix.

We need to be a bit carefull about 'Bulking up'

Some players can't bulk up and for other players it takes away from the current attributes.

If one of Ellis's skills is speed bulking up may slow him.
It appears he is an 'outside' player so he may well not need the bulk.

Interesting info though.

 

[FIGJAM]

I see Hurn as being pretty similar to Luke Hodge, perhaps with a little less midfield ability, and Wiz ranked Hodge at #1 that year, so you are kind of right in saying that he does lean towards stronger players.

I don't think this said anything we didn't really know about Ellis already. His ability to get the hard ball is partly hampered by the fact that he doesn't have the body to go in for it. When he bulks up, it is likely that he'll improve in that area.

No draftee is perfect, but Ellis' main fault is how skinny he is, which is one of the easier things to fix.

He's very bottom age too, which must surely work in his favour.

Hodge was strong bodied in 2001, but so was Ball and Judd, so that's not much of an argument. The 2001 argument, would be his high rating of McGough. I'm a confessed MCG fan, but realise that he was born 15 years too late. You can't predict the "fashion trends" all the time!

 

[pieman1]

The key phrase is elite user in space. He's also one touch and doesn't fumble, speed is also well above average. Don't read to much into his Grand Final performance, These TAC sides have their rotations and structures in place when the school kids become available again, why upset the apple cart and put noses out of joint if you don't have too, thats why they stuck him in a back pocket. Just a pity you didn't get to see him much up the ground, TAC backs have to play a chipping possession type game (doesn't everyone?). Very outside at the moment but he can play wing or a flank till the body is ready to mix it up inside. Played mostly wing for Vic Country with short stints on ball and flanks. Raking left foot kick and can deliver the ball on target over long distances, you look at him and think the ball with die but it just keeps going. Not much to look at but his game does the talking for me, botton age and alot to work with. Happy to see him in black and white stripes.

 

[Jabso]

Only truely A-grade players are great users in traffic.
X-El may develop this in time once he gets a bigger body (around the size of Dal Santo now which isn't that big) and is able to go in traffic without being pushed around.
And once X-El gets AFL experience under his belt he will gain composure, composure to think calmly in traffic and get off quality disposals. Not a ready made player but is all class.

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

Only truely A-grade players are great users in traffic.
X-El may develop this in time once he gets a bigger body (around the size of Dal Santo now which isn't that big) and is able to go in traffic without being pushed around.
And once X-El gets AFL experience under his belt he will gain composure, composure to think calmly in traffic and get off quality disposals. Not a ready made player but is all class.

Playing in the backline and having seen a few other games of his, one thing I actually did notice from him was exceptional composure.

He doesn't seem to look over his shoulders for tacklers, he seems to just have a sense of where they are.

He almost always finds time to steady before kicking, and unlike Nick Dal Santo who just looks like he has all the time in the world, but isn't actually super fast, Ellis has another gear in terms of pace.

People are confusing Ellis not having the body to go in an AFL midfield with him not having the skills to do it. From everything I've seen he moves well in traffic, and is not afraid of the contest. Simply standing on the outside of a contest does not make you afraid of it - that's what outside players do much of the time. Xavier Ellis, I feel, actually throws his body around with reckless abandon sometimes when perhaps he shouldn't, given his slight frame.

The biggest downsides I see to Ellis are him not being able to bulk up (which I doubt, considering he's only 17 - if he was 18 and still this skinny it'd be a bigger concern) and perhaps not being able to be a true on-baller, but more of a wingman/flanker. Being too outside or afraid of the contest are not problems that should be expected with him.

As for those saying that bulking up could affect his pace, look at Rhyce Shaw. When he was drafted he was basically a twig, and he put on close to 10kgs and never lost a step. Chris Tarrant is much the same, put on a heap of muscle and never slowed down, which is actually kinda incredible considering he put a lot of that weight on his upper body.

 

[Jabso]

It depends on the player whether they will slow down once bulked up. Rusling will still be pretty fast no matter how much bulk he gets because he has that athletic running action. If a player is fast because he is skinny/light those are the players that struggle.

vinnie thanks for your views, I have only seen Ellis that GF and glimpses of him at the champs. Tactics have changed so much that coaches designate players to always be outside the pack and others to be inside it in order to maintain consistancy and run set plays in stoppages.

 

[goalpie]

Robbie Flower was skinny, didnt stop him.

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

Robbie Flower was skinny, didnt stop him.

It stopped him from playing Finals for the first 270 games of his career... Not exactly the comparison I'd want, even if he was a fine player.

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

It depends on the player whether they will slow down once bulked up. Rusling will still be pretty fast no matter how much bulk he gets because he has that athletic running action. If a player is fast because he is skinny/light those are the players that struggle.

About the bulking up, part of the reason I don't think it'll effect X-El is that he's so young. He's going to naturally bulk up a bit from here even without the aid of weights training and dieting. He's not skinny framed, his body just isn't fully developed yet. He will likely retain his pace.

Leon Davis is one who lost his pace a little as he bulked up, because as you said, he never had a good running style. Chris Egan will likely not lose pace if he bulks up because of his long loping strides.

The ability to find space and to use the ball well is infinitely more important than pace anyway, though. I don't know that Bucks is really all that fast, but he gets out into space to get the ball and then uses it brilliantly, so his actually running speed is significantly less important.

 

[jefffff34]

It stopped him from playing Finals for the first 270 games of his career... Not exactly the comparison I'd want, even if he was a fine player.

I would have thought that perhaps he wasn't in the best team might have been the reason he only played in one finals series, not because of his weight.

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

I would have thought that perhaps he wasn't in the best team might have been the reason he only played in one finals series, not because of his weight.

hu·mour

1. n. a comic quality causing amusement; 2. n. the ability to say something funny or amusing

 

[moe sizlak]

Im not sure wiz always rates mature bodied players higher. He was a huge advocate of R Griffen.

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

Im not sure wiz always rates mature bodied players higher. He was a huge advocate of R Griffen.

Griffen had a mature body - 187cm, 85kg.

Much more physically developed than Deledio or Tambling.

 

[MarkT]

The word unaccountable worries me. Not because I dislike unaccountable players but because it almost guarantees him learning lessons he is not suited to learning on a half back flank when what we really need is attacking flair.

In reality he sounds like a winger and we have half a dozen players whose best and maybe only position is wing. The more I hear of the draft the more I want to trade pick 5. I know that is very much against the trend but when there are players like Power available then 3 years of development for 5 years of quality and the usual draft risk v guaranteed gun and instant uplift in hardness, skill and attitude looks like a fair deal to me. If we could squeeze something more out of a pick 5 deal then I’d jump at it.

I am far from sold on Colin’s ratings though. Then again, there is huge speculation in the development of 95% of 18 year olds. (I made that stat up before I’m asked).

 

[Lajon]

Good find FIGJAM ... I think I asked in another thread, but do you have any other updated comments from Wiz on this year's crop ...

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

The word unaccountable worries me. Not because I dislike unaccountable players but because it almost guarantees him learning lessons he is not suited to learning on a half back flank when what we really need is attacking flair.

In reality he sounds like a winger and we have half a dozen players whose best and maybe only position is wing. The more I hear of the draft the more I want to trade pick 5. I know that is very much against the trend but when there are players like Power available then 3 years of development for 5 years of quality and the usual draft risk v guaranteed gun and instant uplift in hardness, skill and attitude looks like a fair deal to me. If we could squeeze something more out of a pick 5 deal then I’d jump at it.

I am far from sold on Colin’s ratings though. Then again, there is huge speculation in the development of 95% of 18 year olds. (I made that stat up before I’m asked).

As for the part in bold, outside of Egan and Rowe, I don't know that any of the players on our list fit into that category.

And even then, I actually thought in the few chances Egan got to go into the middle itself, he showed that he may be capable of that.

That would leave only Rowe as a wingman who probably can't play on the ball and he could very much go either way at this point depending on if he can get his kicking right again.

Besides, we did alright in 1990 with two quality wingmen in Graham Wright and Darren Millane (R.I.P). Wings are very important, probably underrated players. If we pick up a guy who could own a wing like Michael Long or Peter Matera did, I'd be happy with that.

As for the rest of the post, just take a deep breath and relax.

 

[FIGJAM]

Not really Lajon, but all's I can say is if he doesn't rank Murphy #1, don't chuck a wobbly like the Semon supporters did after Colin didn't give Brock McLean a good review.

He didn't rank Murphy top 5 before the Championships, but that may have changed. He still ranks Hurn at #1.

It's all subjective, so there's no right or wrong answers until hindsight kicks in. Wiz himself has said a number of times that he can understand why Hurn is rated lower by many recruiters.

Seems like it could be a very weird draft and who the hell knows what's going through each recruiter's mind.

 

[FIGJAM]

As for the part in bold, outside of Egan and Rowe, I don't know that any of the players on our list fit into that category.

Rhyce Shaw is another one. I haven't seen anything to suggest that Rusling can play inside, so he's maybe another.

Aparantly Leon Davis can play midfield (wing), but I don't pay attention to that running joke!

Other options who can play outside roles in the middle might include Tarrant, Caracella, Lonie and Didak, with only Didak arguably able to fill a senna square position in the future.

Then we have outside flankers in Swan, Heaff, Lockyer and Crab.

We really need Johnno to get his head straight and get some grunt back in the guts. Holland and Lica ain't enough and O'Bree, well, hopefully he is battleing for a spot next year!

Sooooo many outside midfielders, sweet FA insiders. It's why I have a fancy for Hurn, but then I've never seen the slow coach!

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

Rhyce Shaw is another one. I haven't seen anything to suggest that Rusling can play inside, so he's maybe another.

Aparantly Leon Davis can play midfield (wing), but I don't pay attention to that running joke!

Other options who can play outside roles in the middle might include Tarrant, Caracella, Lonie and Didak, with only Didak arguably able to fill a senna square position in the future.

Then we have outside flankers in Swan, Heaff, Lockyer and Crab.

We really need Johnno to get his head straight and get some grunt back in the guts. Holland and Lica ain't enough and O'Bree, well, hopefully he is battleing for a spot next year!

Sooooo many outside midfielders, sweet FA insiders. It's why I have a fancy for Hurn, but then I've never seen the slow coach!

First, I was talking about MarkT's comments that we have an abundance of players who's best and only position may be the wing.

I'm not questioning that we have a lot of outside midfielders, although the quality or midfield ability of many of them can be questioned.

However, most of them are capable of playing on the ball, rather than solely on the wing.

You don't have to preach inside mids to me, I want either Shannon Hurn or Nathan Jones at #5. However, Xavier Ellis seems to be the best available midfield talent at #2, and it's not like we can pretend that people haven't been begging for pace and skill in the midfield.

 

[magpies42]

The word unaccountable worries me. Not because I dislike unaccountable players but because it almost guarantees him learning lessons he is not suited to learning on a half back flank when what we really need is attacking flair.

In reality he sounds like a winger and we have half a dozen players whose best and maybe only position is wing. The more I hear of the draft the more I want to trade pick 5. I know that is very much against the trend but when there are players like Power available then 3 years of development for 5 years of quality and the usual draft risk v guaranteed gun and instant uplift in hardness, skill and attitude looks like a fair deal to me. If we could squeeze something more out of a pick 5 deal then I’d jump at it.

I am far from sold on Colin’s ratings though. Then again, there is huge speculation in the development of 95% of 18 year olds. (I made that stat up before I’m asked).

guaranteed gun???

power was a gun upo in brisbane but who is to say he will be the same at the pies?! he may not be suited or he may just ahve been good because he was surrounded by guns himself!!

i think the chances of us picking up a dud with pick 5 are as great as power not forfilling his potential at the pies!

 

[wookie]

so do you think he will go number 2? Or will we lean towards Hurn?