Racing WS Cox Plate 2023

[Jugada]

Tenuous rankings after having a look at todays races

1. Fangirl - Has never raced beyond a mile in open grade and has to be a huge possibility Cotton Wool Waller just sets her for one of the mile races.
2. Alligator Blood - Ticked the 2000m box today by winning well. Form out of the race was questionable but we already know he has a high enough level at his best. As an on speed runner at the Valley will likely start favourite for mine.
3. Gold Trip - If he backs up I think he is the best horse but he will be sitting near last at the Valley and likely running up the back of them like last year.
4. Romantic Warrior - Not getting the juice in the price for his average first up run.
5. Mr Brightside - Has class but dont think he stays 2000m at all.

Confidence levels very low though and in such an open edition feels like we could get a Pinker Pinker, FOO, Shamus Award type winner

 

[Bombers36]

I'd think Gold Trip has to come right into calculations for the Cox now given his big win yesterday...
They say he'll run in the Caul.Cup - but cant see them doing that as GT would be exposed to a penalty for the Melb.Cup if he runs in Caulfield Cup... Cox Plate a free hit for GT now and you'd think he'd be super competitive...

 

[iluvparis]

Competitive yes but the current $5-$6 is poison given he was double that last year and is a get back horse in a race run on a tight turning track

 

[Suncraze]

Mark Zahra been booked on WAF for the Caufield Cup. Looks like Gold Trip straight to the Cox Plate

 

[diggo1]

He’s carrying too much weight at the Caulfield Cup. Massive chance in the Cox, surely that is the play. Its likely they will follow the weather though and just head to the softest track.

 

[Jugada]

Mark Zahra been booked on WAF for the Caufield Cup. Looks like Gold Trip straight to the Cox Plate

Zahra had already committed to WAF in the CC before Saturday

 

[Hu$tler]

Will do a Northerly 2002

 

[iluvparis]

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Alcohol Free, the same horse in the Everest?

 

[iluvparis]

Alcohol Free, the same horse in the Everest?

Yulong just using the Everest as a 20m barrier trial

 

[Jugada]

Buckaroo $51 vs Victoria Road $12/Light Infantry $15 doesn't make much sense to me at this point based on their European form. Buck and VR both ran against each other in their last start with Buckaroo going around 2/1 vs Victoria Road at 4/1 and just beat him home.

Buckaroo also went around shorter than Light Infantry in the Prix d'Ispahan and they basically crossed the line together after he sat outside LI the whole race

 

[plays tall 1]

Buckaroo $51 vs Victoria Road $12/Light Infantry $15 doesn't make much sense to me at this point based on their European form. Buck and VR both ran against each other in their last start with Buckaroo going around 2/1 vs Victoria Road at 4/1 and just beat him home.

Buckaroo also went around shorter than Light Infantry in the Prix d'Ispahan and they basically crossed the line together after he sat outside LI the whole race

Yes, hard to understand the price difference between VR and Buckaroo. VR looked the better run to me in the Dullingham Stakes as he was blocked for a run while Buckaroo was able to build momentum. They’ll meet at much the same weight difference with VR being an NH 3yo. Perhaps the prices reflect that VR, as a Group 1 winner and with the same rating (112) as Buckaroo but a younger horse, is considered a better chance to make the field.

Is Buckaroo likely to make the field? Neither he nor Light Infantry have won a Group 1 but Light Infantry has a higher rating (116) than Buckaroo and better overall form with 5 Group 1 placings to Buckaroo’s zero Group 1 placings.

 

[Jugada]

Yes, hard to understand the price difference between VR and Buckaroo. VR looked the better run to me in the Dullingham Stakes as he was blocked for a run while Buckaroo was able to build momentum. They’ll meet at much the same weight difference with VR being an NH 3yo. Perhaps the prices reflect that VR, as a Group 1 winner and with the same rating (112) as Buckaroo but a younger horse, is considered a better chance to make the field.

Is Buckaroo likely to make the field? Neither he nor Light Infantry have won a Group 1 but Light Infantry has a higher rating (116) than Buckaroo and better overall form with 5 Group 1 placings to Buckaroo’s zero Group 1 placings.

I think if he going to be a chance he likely makes the field. We will see him run in the King Charles first and if he ran well would likely get a start

Trying to guess the field at this point I would imagine its something like

1. Romantic Warrior
2. Mr Brightside
3. Alligator Blood
4. Zaaki
5. Think It Over
6. Pinstriped
7. Light Infantry
8. Victoria Road
9. Kovalica
10. 3yo 1
11. 3yo 2
12. Duais
13. Buckaroo
14.

I think Soulcombe, Without a Fight, Gold Trip, Duke De Sessa do the Cups double and don't run

Amelia's Jewel likely Golden Eagle
Alcohol Free won't be going there after an Everest
Alenquer likely gets balloted out at the moment
Fangirl wont be there. Will run in one of the mile races
My Oberon surely goes Champions Mile
Hoo Ya Mal seems unlikely after the Caulfield Cup

Antino, Mustang Valley, Pounding should all be looking elsewhere to pick off a race they can be competitive in

 

[iluvparis]

Most likely Buckaroo is 10/1 or 500/1 after Saturday. Your almost better just backing it EW in the KC final field now if you are considering backing it in the CP as it’s hard to see it missing a place and firming (also creates ballot risk if it can’t run top 3)

Also LI and VR are also rock bottom odds already given the lack of local talent which partially explains the disrepancy. If it’s actually 15/1 v 26/1 it’s no big deal

 

[iluvparis]

I think if he going to be a chance he likely makes the field. We will see him run in the King Charles first and if he ran well would likely get a start

Trying to guess the field at this point I would imagine its something like

1. Romantic Warrior
2. Mr Brightside
3. Alligator Blood
4. Zaaki
5. Think It Over
6. Pinstriped
7. Light Infantry
8. Victoria Road
9. Kovalica
10. 3yo 1
11. 3yo 2
12. Duais
13. Buckaroo
14.

I think Soulcombe, Without a Fight, Gold Trip, Duke De Sessa do the Cups double and don't run

Amelia's Jewel likely Golden Eagle
Alcohol Free won't be going there after an Everest
Alenquer likely gets balloted out at the moment
Fangirl wont be there. Will run in one of the mile races
My Oberon surely goes Champions Mile
Hoo Ya Mal seems unlikely after the Caulfield Cup

Antino, Mustang Valley, Pounding should all be looking elsewhere to pick off a race they can be competitive in

Kovalica is a moral to go to the GE after doing nothing this weekend and there must be some chance TIO is gone for the prep off that trial

 

[Slipps]

I think if he going to be a chance he likely makes the field. We will see him run in the King Charles first and if he ran well would likely get a start

Trying to guess the field at this point I would imagine its something like

1. Romantic Warrior
2. Mr Brightside
3. Alligator Blood
4. Zaaki
5. Think It Over
6. Pinstriped
7. Light Infantry
8. Victoria Road
9. Kovalica
10. 3yo 1
11. 3yo 2
12. Duais
13. Buckaroo
14.

I think Soulcombe, Without a Fight, Gold Trip, Duke De Sessa do the Cups double and don't run

Amelia's Jewel likely Golden Eagle
Alcohol Free won't be going there after an Everest
Alenquer likely gets balloted out at the moment
Fangirl wont be there. Will run in one of the mile races
My Oberon surely goes Champions Mile
Hoo Ya Mal seems unlikely after the Caulfield Cup

Antino, Mustang Valley, Pounding should all be looking elsewhere to pick off a race they can be competitive in

Doubt Zaaki will be there, Annabel rekons he needs his runs spaced now and she wants to try win 3 Mackinnons in a row with him, You can almost guarantee AJ will be in the CP over the GE.

 

[iluvparis]

Introduction of the KC has made things interesting as historically you want to come to the CP off a 2000m run as opposed to running around against squibby milers

 

[Viva la Mattner]

I think if he going to be a chance he likely makes the field. We will see him run in the King Charles first and if he ran well would likely get a start

Trying to guess the field at this point I would imagine its something like

1. Romantic Warrior
2. Mr Brightside
3. Alligator Blood
4. Zaaki
5. Think It Over
6. Pinstriped
7. Light Infantry
8. Victoria Road
9. Kovalica
10. 3yo 1
11. 3yo 2
12. Duais
13. Buckaroo
14.

I think Soulcombe, Without a Fight, Gold Trip, Duke De Sessa do the Cups double and don't run

Amelia's Jewel likely Golden Eagle
Alcohol Free won't be going there after an Everest
Alenquer likely gets balloted out at the moment
Fangirl wont be there. Will run in one of the mile races
My Oberon surely goes Champions Mile
Hoo Ya Mal seems unlikely after the Caulfield Cup

Antino, Mustang Valley, Pounding should all be looking elsewhere to pick off a race they can be competitive in

I dont think Mr B goes there either, proven he is a miler and CP is where milers go to die

I think it'll be

Romantic Warrior
Vic Road
Pinstriped
LI
Buckaroo
AJ
Militarize
Steparty
Antino
Duais

 

[iluvparis]

Mr B is a moral to line up

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Mr B is a moral to line up

Stupid decision
should freshen him for mile race over cup week - more easy group 1 $$

 

[TBellicious]

Stupid decision
should freshen him for mile race over cup week - more easy group 1 $$

They still can go there - worked okay for Alligator Blood last year.

 

[plays tall 1]

I think Gold Trip will run in the CP. He ran in all 3 last year and apparently he’s in better physical shape this year. He was a bit unlucky last year, I suspect they see this year’s race as unfinished business.

He’s an entire. Jamie Lovett mentioned the other day that he’s the sort of sire Australia should be looking to if they want to breed stayers.

 

[iluvparis]

Yup - I definitely think the committee is going to have to chuck 1 or 2 horses out this year

 

[TBellicious]

I think Gold Trip will run in the CP. He ran in all 3 last year and apparently he’s in better physical shape this year. He was a bit unlucky last year, I suspect they see this year’s race as unfinished business.

He’s an entire. Jamie Lovett mentioned the other day that he’s the sort of sire Australia should be looking to if they want to breed stayers.

Yep I reckon almost certain to run. He will run in all 3 again I suspect, unless he wins the Cox Plate.

 

[FFB1]

LI is now LIM. Best start referring to him by his correct initials so we don’t confuse all the once a year racing fans with Bakers yet to hit the track 3yo. Surely there’s thousands of them without a bigfooty account lurking around this forum?

 

[Jugada]

The plan wasn't to run Gold Trip in all 3 last year though, it was just decision making on the fly after each race. If they are properly aiming him at a Melbourne Cup I doubt they do all of them again