Position 2015: Rucks

[Jiska]

Plenty of bargains here.

Kruezer and Leuenberger the obvious choices, but what of Nic Nat at a bargain basement price? Who will you be taking?

 

[Keystone agony]

Interesting strategy for this.

We all know where the value is but whats the risk people are willing to take.

There could be security and value in a premium type.

What if kreuzer and leuy both go down at the same time which could be fairly likely to happen

 

[Jiska]

Interesting strategy for this.

We all know where the value is but whats the risk people are willing to take.

There could be security and value in a premium type.

What if kreuzer and leuy both go down at the same time which could be fairly likely to happen

Everyone said that about Sandipants last year and he priced to be close to the recruit of the year. Those that were scared off due to his injuries would have been burned.

Agreed that you can't take the risk on both though; so which one is the better risk?

 

[Keystone agony]

Everyone said that about Sandipants last year and he priced to be close to the recruit of the year. Those that were scared off due to his injuries would have been burned.

Agreed that you can't take the risk on both though; so which one is the better risk?

Absolutely you have to pick one.

Just whether to go with both will be decided on a few things.

1 - There preseasons, any hiccups during PS games and any missed preseason due to injury ect

2 - the quality of rookies. If there is a likely good backup that becomes evident then you can take greater risk (ie take both)

3 - There role? Ive heard Kreuzer will play greater time forward, the blues already have guys like Wood, Warnock and Casboult so will be interesting to see his role.

Obviously Leuys role with S.Martin who was so good last year

4 - If someone else maybe more expensive shows value bit added with greater durability, maybe a Bellchambers, NicNat or someone else

 

[Keystone agony]

The Ruck Dilemma
There seems to be some doubt and question over whether Leunberger (Leuy) and Kreuzer (Kruz) will be sharing ruck duties or rucking along and what this could mean for their numbers and potential average for next year. FWIW I believe both will play in tandem ruck roles and actually play quite a bit forward. Why? Brisbane has an inexperienced forward line and with the loss of J.Brown they will need either Leuy or Martin to spend time forward. Kreuzer is a bit more difficult to predict IMO. This is due to Levi Casboult, he has rucked before in small tandem stints however they have loss J.Waite but also in turned picked up L.Jones and Jaksch. Will these guys get games? NAB will be a strong decider. I feel one of them will.

Anyone it seems we have 'SOLO' rucks and we also have 'TANDEM' rucks.

I wish i had the stat of where it says how many centre bounces a ruck/player attended. So ill have to use some stats (Hitouts). If you look at last season averages there is a significant drop in avg from Lycett 12 to T.Campbell 9.9 (Doesnt seem significant until you look at the stats), anyway this is where i see best to decipher who was almost a 'SOLO' ruck and who was a 'TANDEM' ruck.

Based on this the only true 'SOLO' rucks were Lobbe (Port), Jacobs (Adel), Goldstein (North) and Minson (WBD). Of course every situation/player need to be taken case by case. Ie: S.Martin 'SOLO' rucked for about 10 games and the same can be said for some others. Ryder is another - we might look at specific games to see how certain players went with another ruck added to the lineup compared to when they didnt have that player in the team.

All the solo rucks (Jacobs, Lobbe, Goldstein and Minson) avg an extremely impressive avg for the year.

Lobbe 89.1 avg
Jacobs 97.1
Minson 83.6
Goldstein 87.7

All placing them in the top 9 rucks for the season. So who else was there in that top 9 that played with/in a tandem ruck role.

Ryder, Maric, Sandilands, S.Martin and Mumford.

Ryder
Ryder avg 88.2 (When Bellchambers played) - TANDEM RUCK
Ryder avg 93.1 (Without Bellchambers) - Excl subbed out injured game - SOLE RUCK

It seems Ryder wasn't massively affected. However Bellchambers was oftenly subbed off in the 3rd quarter last year and looked to be purely trying to find gradual build up of match fitness. Bellchambers also only played 7 games last year, so the impact on average was limited.

Maric
Maric and Hampson only ended up playing 3 games together last year before a subtle take over from Griffiths as the 'cut out/back up' ruck was used. In these 3 games:
Maric avg 69.66 (With Hampson) - TANDEM RUCK
Maric avg 89.8 (Without Hampson) - SOLD RUCK

Mumford
Mumford and Giles only played 4 games together. During this time Mumford killed it, however he also had his lowest score of the year (50).
Mumford avg 102.5 (With Giles) - TANDEM RUCK
Mumford avg 89.5 (Without Giles) - SOLO RUCK

Mumford goes against the trend it seems. However maybe not enough sample size was given.
Sandilands
Sandilands only played 3 games without Z.Clarke in these games he went 110,104 and 86
Sandilands avg 84.27 (With Z.Clarke) - TANDEM RUCK
Sandilands avg 100 (Without Z.Clarke) - SOLO RUCK


Based on the above stats an average can drop 5-23 points (Going from a SOLO to TANDEM ruck combo) excl mumford. Maric was 23 points worse off, Ryder 5 points worse off and Sandilands 16. On avg 14-15 points worse off excl Mumford.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now we come to Martin
MARTIN
Martin avg 112 last year however with the inclusion of Leuenberger it could be said to drop 14-15 points still playing at a similar quality.

So your asking what is Leuenberger likely to avg?

To work this out we would have to look at what the above combinations avg when they played together.

Maric + Hampson avg only 116 between eachother

Ryder + TBC avg 142

Mumford + Giles avg 149

Sandi and Z.Clarke avg 155

The eagles rucks each game were able to muster 181 avg however they often had 3.

So 180 seems the max from a ruck combo. However having just 2 seems to mean a 140 avg based on the other 4 TANDEM combinations.

Summary
Watch in the NAB for the likely roles of both Kruz and Leuy. I feel Martin is guaranteed to play with Leuy next year after his impressive 2014 season. If they play together the player who is 'considered' more the number 1 ruck will average more, however combined dont expect them to go much better than 150 together.

No true SOLO ruck last year avg less than 83. Even all of Sandi, Maric, Mumford and Ryder far superseeded those number with the lease being 89 avg when SOLO

 

[TRAWP]

Is there too much risk running Kreuzer, Leunberger and Bellchambers together?

 

[browncow]

Is there too much risk running Kreuzer, Leunberger and Bellchambers together?

I have flicked between having someone like a Jack Martin at F5/F6, or Bellchambers purely in case Leunberger or Kreuzer go down. Got a cheap R/F on the ruck bench.

I prefer the look of my team with Martin at F5/F6, but if it looks like Bellchambers is the Bombers number one ruck, I think I will have to go with him in the fwd line.

 

[Keystone agony]

If TBC is named as the number one ruck and Giles isnt listed in the same side for round 1, what do people do based on reading my post just 2-3 post up?

 

[tortoise_24]

If TBC is named as the number one ruck and Giles isnt listed in the same side for round 1, what do people do based on reading my post just 2-3 post up?

Excellent post it was. For mine Bellchambers is nicely priced but hasn't shown enough yet to justify selection. Probably Goldstein as best SOLO, plus one of Kreuzer or Leuenberger for mine, depending on who looks best / rucks most in pre-season.

 

[Spider Klein]

Well preseason will determine a lot.

But thinking if I go Kreuzer and Luenberger I definitely have Bellchambers forward as DPP back up with Mason Cox as my Ruck 4. Pretty much will concede that I need to trade to a gun and hopefully one of those 3 becomes an adequate ruck 2.

 

[Keystone agony]

Well preseason will determine a lot.

But thinking if I go Kreuzer and Luenberger I definitely have Bellchambers forward as DPP back up with Mason Cox as my Ruck 4. Pretty much will concede that I need to trade to a gun and hopefully one of those 3 becomes an adequate ruck 2.

Its a tough one picking TBC as a forward when there are so many great options, although its great security. I guess it all depends on what you think these 2-3 players can avg and score and alot of that as you said will be determined by PS.

Im not quite sure that type of security is going to get you 25k, however it might mean you finished ranked 300 instead of 5k for example.

 

[CrozaN]

Interesting that RDT only has one bench cover....makes you think benching someone like TBC might be worth while.

 

[Keystone agony]

Interesting that RDT only has one bench cover....makes you think benching someone like TBC might be worth while.

Agree wish Fantasy went the same way aswell

 

[CrozaN]

Agree wish Fantasy went the same way aswell

I like it, they moved one emg from rucks to midfield....so much better!

 

[Dan12]

I think Bellchambers represents a lot of value. He's priced under 50 and should average 75-80. Combine that with the R/F security and he is a good option. In the prime of his career too. Even if he was a forward only he would probably make my starting team. He'll be a great option to trade to a fallen premium around rounds 5-8.

 

[go you pups]

I think Bellchambers represents a lot of value. He's priced under 50 and should average 75-80. Combine that with the R/F security and he is a good option. In the prime of his career too. Even if he was a forward only he would probably make my starting team. He'll be a great option to trade to a fallen premium around rounds 5-8.

Definitely the best option out of ML MK and TBC


Also folks

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2015-02-16/setback-for-kreuzer

 

[Dan12]

Definitely the best option out of ML MK and TBC


Also folks

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2015-02-16/setback-for-kreuzer

Really interesting how people will react to not having Kreuzer to start the season with. I think my starting rucks will be TBC and Leuenberger now. Maybe Nicholls with TBC forward if he shows something in pre-season.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

Jacobs straight in for Kreuzer.

 

[skins62]

Jacobs straight in for Kreuzer.

I am a Crows supporter and had Jacobs all last year, but think you need someone who will improve on their results from last year. To me I think Mike Pyke might fit the bill.

But..... I'm really interested in the direction that people will move in after the loss of Kreuzer. Must be a few opinions out there.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

I am a Crows supporter and had Jacobs all last year, but think you need someone who will improve on their results from last year. To me I think Mike Pyke might fit the bill.

But..... I'm really interested in the direction that people will move in after the loss of Kreuzer. Must be a few opinions out there.

Well I've already got Leuy as a cheap ruck. I'm not paying for improvement if I go with Jacobs, I'm after that 100 points week in, week out, that you can expect. That's pretty bloody good for a ruck to be more consistent than most of the premo mids.

 

[jusjoshin]

Leuy and Lycett for me. I think both could be in for big years.

 

[James LeBron]

Minson or Mumford,
Both are good ruckman, but Minson is chepaer and might rebound from last year and get a better average his year

 

[Membling]

Hhmm Luey has been underwhelming.

 

[James LeBron]

Luke Lowden > Leuenberger

 

[Keystone agony]

If nicnat doesnt play the last nab game then its going to be hard to pick him.