Club Focus Geelong 2023 - Reportedly open to trading their first round pick

[Lore]

Data from footywire. To check the draft order see the thread here.

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[BORIS332]

Nah. Expect Melb to be top 4 in 2023. Not a trade we should entertain.

If Melb finish top 4 then it will be 11 (2023) + 15-18 (2024) in a stronger draft, which is better than Crows' 10 + 20 in this year's draft.

 

[BORIS332]

If Curtin lasts to pick 8 which is a possibility if Hawks dont take him then id imagine also Freo are giving 2 future 1sts for pick 8

Assume it will be Port and Collingwood's future firsts that Freo received. If so, that will be something like 14 & 18. We've got a minimum of five senior list spots to fill this year with only picks 8 and 25 inside the first three rounds. I suspect we'd prefer a pick in this year's draft.

 

[Crow till I die]

If Melb finish top 4 then it will be 11 (2023) + 15-18 (2024) in a stronger draft, which is better than Crows' 10 + 20 in this year's draft.

UNLESS..at 10 you still get one of Leake, Wilson or Windsor, whereas at 11 they might all be off the table - so it would depend how Geelong rate those guys etc

 

[Milanista28]

Cats lose 8, F1st - Gain 14, 20, F1st(Ess)
Crows lose 14, 20 - Gain 9
Ess lose 9, F1st - Gain 8, F1st(Cats)

I'd do this to get Caddy, not sure how the other clubs would feel?

 

[BORIS332]

Cats lose 8, F1st - Gain 14, 20, F1st(Ess)
Crows lose 14, 20 - Gain 9
Ess lose 9, F1st - Gain 8, F1st(Cats)

I'd do this to get Caddy, not sure how the other clubs would feel?

Doubt we'd do that. Who knows what the difference between our future 1st and Essendon's would be. I suspect we'd get better offers.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Cats lose 8, F1st - Gain 14, 20, F1st(Ess)
Crows lose 14, 20 - Gain 9
Ess lose 9, F1st - Gain 8, F1st(Cats)

I'd do this to get Caddy, not sure how the other clubs would feel?

Problem is Essendon finished above us this year and should be stronger next year. We might back ourselves to rebound but I don't think we do a trade that requires it for the trade to make sense.

 

[Moonatic77]

The Crows really want this pick.

Maybe 8 and 14 for 10 and 25 then. If it's Ade pushing for this they may have to throw in in a future 2nd though

 

[BORIS332]

Maybe 8 and 14 for 10 and 25 then. If it's Ade pushing for this they may have to throw in in a future 2nd though

How does that work? We have 8 and 25, Crows have 10 & 14. Do you mean we send 8 & 25 for Crows' 10 & 14?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

How does that work? We have 8 and 25, Crows have 10 & 14. Do you mean we send 8 & 25 for Crows' 10 & 14?

I think that's what he meant to say

 

[Crow till I die]

Seems to be more rumour that Adelaide and Essendon might be in line for a draft night trade - 9 & 35 for 14 & 20..even if Adelaide needed to ship a F3 as well, its a deal that works for us as it would leave us with 9, 10 & 35 (O'Sullivan/Wilson/Leake - 2 of you would think + a project ruck maybe at 35).

Essendon get 2 cracks inside the 1st round and may have a specific player they want that 14 would get them anyway and then they get a much better crack at the next player they want with 20

 

[Moonatic77]

How does that work? We have 8 and 25, Crows have 10 & 14. Do you mean we send 8 & 25 for Crows' 10 & 14?

My bad, yeah that's what I meant to type

 

[BORIS332]

Seems to be more rumour that Adelaide and Essendon might be in line for a draft night trade - 9 & 35 for 14 & 20..even if Adelaide needed to ship a F3 as well, its a deal that works for us as it would leave us with 9, 10 & 35 (O'Sullivan/Wilson/Leake - 2 of you would think + a project ruck maybe at 35).

Essendon get 2 cracks inside the 1st round and may have a specific player they want that 14 would get them anyway and then they get a much better crack at the next player they want with 20

Don’t you only have two available senior list spots?

 

[Crow till I die]

Don’t you only have two available senior list spots?

We delisted hamill and have told him we will redraft him in the rookie draft. So that opens the extra list spot so we have 3 open spots now

 

[FootyLad0]

Reckon they are likely to trade back for two of those North picks in the late teens.

Lol no

 

[FootyLad0]

But mackie and the team have been clear that a) we arent trading unless the deal is very good and b) we have been planning to use a few back end picks and the combination of that and how many retirements we will have next year means if we trade 9 it will be out into 2024 not back into mid range picks this year.

Realistically we probably arent trading 9 unless wce/nm/haw offer us a fr1 straight up (those teams we would back to be bottom 6) or someone like freo offers us 2 of their future 1sts (ie freos and collingwoods for example). I think both of those things are unlikely so its more likely we just use the pick unless its say the 11 and 15 or 11 and 21 deal from adel.

Spot on! All this other rubbish about trading back into Norf's picks just shows people are biased.

Mackie and Co have said they are "open" to trading it "ONLY" if its a great deal.
Meaning enough to sway them from just making a standard good pick at 9 or 10

 

[BORIS332]

Spot on! All this other rubbish about trading back into Norf's picks just shows people are biased.

Mackie and Co have said they are "open" to trading it "ONLY" if its a great deal.
Meaning enough to sway them from just making a standard good pick at 9 or 10

It makes sense though given we have five senior list spots we have to fill at the draft. If the players we rate aren't available at pick 8 then we're better off taking 10, 14, 25, 76, 87 (an example) than 8, 25, 76, 87, 94. I know those later picks come in, but we'd essentially be improving pick 94 to pick 14, with 8 only sliding back two picks.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

This should also be stickied as its the go to response from some cats fans these days.

The list leaving in the next couple of years is huge and they just finished 12th.

Hawk, Tuohy, Danger, Stanley, Blitz, Rohan, Duncan, Guthrie, Stewart, Jezza are all over 30 and most are injury prone, Bews nearly there too. Thats the core of the team.


Who are Geelong's top 10 players taking them to finals in 3 years? In no order Stengle, Atkins, Holmes and the Henrys stand out but are they elite? Bruhn, Miers and DK are solid. Clark unproven. Can these guys lead the team?

They were the oldest premier in history beating the 18 Eagles who beat the 15 Hawks and we know what happened to those two clubs soon after...

Im not knocking them, they have a been a strong club for years and they went all in for a flag and got it, its how the system works.

I think the reason you're seeing that response so often is we're sick of hearing it, compounded even more so by the lack of research by most when looking at our list.

Like anything, if you hear something for years on end and it ends up false time and time again, you just become desensitized to it.

We've all got a mate who's constantly got a new man/woman in their life who is 'the one'....and three weeks later it's somebody new. You just don't even bother considering it anymore.

The reason is, a lot of us Geelong supporters were panicking years ago, myself included. I was particularly lacking hope at the conclusion of '17, '18 & '19, as we had an old list, and minimal talent coming through.

The state of our list is completely different compared to those campaigns, and it really does feel like opposition supporters are still treating it like it's 2017.

I get it, if you asked me for an analysis of every other club, or their list moves over the last 5 or so years, I'd probably struggle too...but it does get old quickly.

The kids (E.g under 25 group) are the least of our troubles. SDK, O Henry, Stengle, Clark, Holmes, & Conway all have elite ceilings, and are AA potential/quality in the eyes of most Cats supporters.

Neale, Knevitt, Dempsey & Bruhn are highly rated internally, with Close, Jack Henry, Miers, Bowes & Zach Guthrie all still in that young group too as upper class role players.

It's 7 top 25 picks since 2019, with another 2, or even 3 to come this year.

That's a much heavier focus on the top end of drafts than a lot of clubs in recent times, and most non Geelong supporters wouldn't even know that occurred, such is the negligence on display.

They're the best group we've had coming through in a long time, and they're so clearly not the issue at hand.

The hole in our list is the 26-30 range, (E.g the prime range for premiership success). Tom Atkins & Jake Koladashnij just aren't going to cut it as players at the peak of their powers. It's just not good enough.

While Danger, Hawkins, Cameron, Guthrie & Stewart are still all good to very good contributors...at their age anything is possible, and you're quickly getting into bonus territory on what you're expecting out of them.

How we go about fixing this will be decided in the next 12-24 months.

We're either going to back the kids in as they edge closer to their prime years and fix that gap through trades/FA.

Or the alternative, where we commit to finishing it off through the draft, with 2-3 years of top end talent most likely on the agenda before we're looking at contending on an upwards trajectory again.

 

[FootyLad0]

It makes sense though given we have five senior list spots we have to fill at the draft. If the players we rate aren't available at pick 8 then we're better off taking 10, 14, 25, 76, 87 (an example) than 8, 25, 76, 87, 94. I know those later picks come in, but we'd essentially be improving pick 94 to pick 14, with 8 only sliding back two picks.

I didn't say sliding back to 10/14 though? That's at least worth a look.

I said people suggesting us taking Norf's later picks in 2023 which will get bumped back a fair bit for our Pick in the top 10 which is silly.

 

[BORIS332]

This should also be stickied as its the go to response from some cats fans these days.

The list leaving in the next couple of years is huge and they just finished 12th.

Hawk, Tuohy, Danger, Stanley, Blitz, Rohan, Duncan, Guthrie, Stewart, Jezza are all over 30 and most are injury prone, Bews nearly there too. Thats the core of the team.


Who are Geelong's top 10 players taking them to finals in 3 years? In no order Stengle, Atkins, Holmes and the Henrys stand out but are they elite? Bruhn, Miers and DK are solid. Clark unproven. Can these guys lead the team?

They were the oldest premier in history beating the 18 Eagles who beat the 15 Hawks and we know what happened to those two clubs soon after...

Im not knocking them, they have a been a strong club for years and they went all in for a flag and got it, its how the system works.

I'll give you old, but injury prone? We had a bad year last year, but these guys are generally pretty durable with the exception of maybe Stanley, Duncan, and Rohan (Danger tends to be managed/rested instead). Guthrie had a significant injury last year, but is usually durable.

 

[FootyLad0]

I'll give you old, but injury prone? We had a bad year last year, but these guys are generally pretty durable with the exception of maybe Stanley, Duncan, and Rohan (Danger tends to be managed/rested instead). Guthrie had a significant injury last year, but is usually durable.

View attachment 1854316

Not to mention pretty much all of the injuries sustained were contact injuries ie fractures, broken bones, concussions
There's nothing you can do about that, no matter if you are injury prone or not.

 

[Caligo]

I'll give you old, but injury prone? We had a bad year last year, but these guys are generally pretty durable with the exception of maybe Stanley, Duncan, and Rohan (Danger tends to be managed/rested instead). Guthrie had a significant injury last year, but is usually durable.

View attachment 1854316

Whilst that is true, if you keep rolling the dice on older players eventually you come up snake eyes (just ask west coast).

I would still take the risk, but it is a risk.

Danger also might get rested more than he misses games due to injury, but he doesn't exactly look like he is prime fitness any more. To me anyway.

 

[Hamingja]

Whilst that is true, if you keep rolling the dice on older players eventually you come up snake eyes (just ask west coast).

I would still take the risk, but it is a risk.

What are we risking exactly?

If we did some of the stupid trades opposition supporters are proposing involving our future first, sure, that could end bad but trying to win has no downside in our current position really.

We either play to win with the old guys and we might find out we are at the end of the cycle OR we could have retired more of the old guys and guaranteed that we were at the end of the cycle. No point playing young players that aren't up to it, see North Melbourne.

Like last year we will just take our pick IMO unless we get a deal significantly tilted in our favour.

People read way too much into Mackie saying we are open to offers.

 

[The 747]

Whilst that is true, if you keep rolling the dice on older players eventually you come up snake eyes (just ask west coast).

I would still take the risk, but it is a risk.

Danger also might get rested more than he misses games due to injury, but he doesn't exactly look like he is prime fitness any more. To me anyway.

Danger is part timer these days. Still very damaging but only for a third of the season. Rest of the time he is injured or coming back from injury.

 

[GoRoos2023]

Will end up with Harley Reid in the next few years. They will be right.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Will end up with Harley Reid in the next few years. They will be right.

We'll have cap space to burn starting this year, so while I think we'll land some big names, he's not one I'd be betting on. At least not immediately.

If he does leave I'd say we're close to first in line, but he's a country kid. He's moving regardless of where he's drafted.

The Eagles will see themselves on an upwards trajectory in the coming years, and if he's anything like advertised, he'll be the biggest name in a footy mad state.

Endorsements, money, fame, girls, (or guys, whatever you're into Harley!), he'll have just about everything that a man in their younger years is after.

He's more Judd than JHF is what I'm getting at. Could very much see him leaving, and I personally believe he will....but I'm thinking more 24-25 rather than 19.