Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Hi knightmare, thoughts on best kids for supercoach short term and long term? cheers.

From the 2015 draft?

In the immediate get on minimum or near minimum priced mature agers (sub 140k in all fantasy football games).

I believe I made a list of all these guys some pages back and gave my rough feel for how they'll go.

As for long term. Jacob Hopper I look at as the most premium certainly Supercoach mid (he could average 115ppg when established). Clayton Oliver I give a chance to be score pretty similarly (and may if things go right be a 110 scorer in Supercoach). In DT they may both score more like 100ppg each year.

Callum Mills as the highest volume accumulator may get the Dreamteam style scoring title from this draft and can win it inside to a high level but Hopper and to a slightly lesser extent Oliver are in the extreme high contested possession category. He could be 100-105DT, 105-110SC when established.

Ben Keays if he gets long term forward eligibility can be a premium scorer and right up there also. He could average 100DT/SC each year and is right up there not only as an accumulator but also on scoreboard impact.

Matthew Kennedy needs to develop but he as a contested ball winner and Supercoach player could be a top level premium if things go right. He could be a 110SC, 100DT type scorer as a best case scenario, or could just not if there aren't the midfield opportunities within GWS and he just doesn't quite develop as expected.

Partington, Parish and Clarke maybe get up there in scoring of the mids but not as extremely great contested ball winners and more probably are going to be among the tier below as more your likely 90-100ppg each year scorers in both formats. Thomas Cole, Rhys Mathieson, Kieran Lovell, Jade Gresham and Brayden Fiorini as mids could score 85-95ppg in each format if played as mids.

Josh Dunkley and Bailey Williams from the Dogs could both if things go right be good for 95dt, 105sc as mids.

Francis and Hibberd could in time be 80-95 type scorers in both formats, Francis likely around 5-10ppg less in DT.

Darcy Tucker at Fremantle may go ok in time an be a 90ppg scorer as a mid/def.

Tom Phillips from Collingwood I flat out love. Loved him going into the draft and still do. He could average 70ppg this year and could be a 90-100 scorer as a mid/fwd and a long term player.

Wayne Milera as a fwd/mid also could be a good scorer if he gets the midfield minutes long term as someone who plays both mid/fwd well. He could be good for 90-95ppg.

They're probably the names that immediately long term come to mind.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

It's a laugh really.
I wonder if Billings will jump from nowhere towards the top of that list by the end of the season. Probably a lot of others too.

Yeaaah mate, bet he will.....

 

[Yarran2Rioli]

Like the look of corey ellis yet? 17 touches 9 contested, 76% DE

 

[Knightmare]

Like the look of corey ellis yet? 17 touches 9 contested, 76% DE

Ellis I can see becoming a component for Richmond perhaps off a forward flank. I just don't see him playing a prominent role or being a high level type as Deledio/Martin/Cotchin all are.

 

[Yarran2Rioli]

Ellis I can see becoming a component for Richmond perhaps off a forward flank. I just don't see him playing a prominent role or being a high level type as Deledio/Martin/Cotchin all are.

Who do you rate more to be a grade or there about, lennon or him?

 

[Knightmare]

Who do you rate more to be a grade or there about, lennon or him?

Ellis over Lennon.

I see Ellis as having a greater probability of having an AFL career. Lennon based off his play these past two seasons has yet to prove he is AFL quality.

Lennon is a tall forward flanker who I see as lacking a point of difference and badly lacking that physical hunger for the contest with his contested ball winning and to a greater extent his tackling ability very poor averaging less than a tackle per game through each of his first two seasons at AFL level.

 

[Yarran2Rioli]

Ellis over Lennon.

I see Ellis as having a greater probability of having an AFL career. Lennon based off his play these past two seasons has yet to prove he is AFL quality.

Lennon is a tall forward flanker who I see as lacking a point of difference and badly lacking that physical hunger for the contest with his contested ball winning and to a greater extent his tackling ability very poor averaging less than a tackle per game through each of his first two seasons at AFL level.

Lennon has the qualities needed great hands, good skills. Has built up his tank as well, also he showed in a fair few games last year good snipets of what he can do

 

[Yarran2Rioli]

It seems reece mekenzie has taken time from the club due to some personal issues, seemed to be a case of being depressed which is sad. Was this one of the reasons he was taken later then many expected

 

[monty1104]

It seems reece mekenzie has taken time from the club due to some personal issues, seemed to be a case of being depressed which is sad. Was this one of the reasons he was taken later then many expected

Not a laughing matter at all, but your phrasing made me snort.

 

[Knightmare]

It seems reece mekenzie has taken time from the club due to some personal issues, seemed to be a case of being depressed which is sad. Was this one of the reasons he was taken later then many expected

It's a shame McKenzie has to go through anything such as depression if that is his challenge and it's a shame for football if we don't get to see him take the field again because McKenzie has best in draft level ability.

All the best to the big fella and hope he can work through whatever he is working through.

 

[flipper83]

It seems reece mekenzie has taken time from the club due to some personal issues, seemed to be a case of being depressed which is sad. Was this one of the reasons he was taken later then many expected

Dont know if it's why he went late but i believe it's something he been battling for some time. Really hope he can learn to manage it. Such a horrible condition.

 

[Balony_pony16]

From the 2015 draft?

In the immediate get on minimum or near minimum priced mature agers (sub 140k in all fantasy football games).

I believe I made a list of all these guys some pages back and gave my rough feel for how they'll go.

As for long term. Jacob Hopper I look at as the most premium certainly Supercoach mid (he could average 115ppg when established). Clayton Oliver I give a chance to be score pretty similarly (and may if things go right be a 110 scorer in Supercoach). In DT they may both score more like 100ppg each year.

Callum Mills as the highest volume accumulator may get the Dreamteam style scoring title from this draft and can win it inside to a high level but Hopper and to a slightly lesser extent Oliver are in the extreme high contested possession category. He could be 100-105DT, 105-110SC when established.

Ben Keays if he gets long term forward eligibility can be a premium scorer and right up there also. He could average 100DT/SC each year and is right up there not only as an accumulator but also on scoreboard impact.

Matthew Kennedy needs to develop but he as a contested ball winner and Supercoach player could be a top level premium if things go right. He could be a 110SC, 100DT type scorer as a best case scenario, or could just not if there aren't the midfield opportunities within GWS and he just doesn't quite develop as expected.

Partington, Parish and Clarke maybe get up there in scoring of the mids but not as extremely great contested ball winners and more probably are going to be among the tier below as more your likely 90-100ppg each year scorers in both formats. Thomas Cole, Rhys Mathieson, Kieran Lovell, Jade Gresham and Brayden Fiorini as mids could score 85-95ppg in each format if played as mids.

Josh Dunkley and Bailey Williams from the Dogs could both if things go right be good for 95dt, 105sc as mids.

Francis and Hibberd could in time be 80-95 type scorers in both formats, Francis likely around 5-10ppg less in DT.

Darcy Tucker at Fremantle may go ok in time an be a 90ppg scorer as a mid/def.

Tom Phillips from Collingwood I flat out love. Loved him going into the draft and still do. He could average 70ppg this year and could be a 90-100 scorer as a mid/fwd and a long term player.

Wayne Milera as a fwd/mid also could be a good scorer if he gets the midfield minutes long term as someone who plays both mid/fwd well. He could be good for 90-95ppg.

They're probably the names that immediately long term come to mind.

After some NAB games is there anything else you would add or change for late mail? A lot of drafts are about to start

 

[Knightmare]

After some NAB games is there anything else you would add or change for late mail? A lot of drafts are about to start

Not a whole lot.

Tucker has been the main surprised through his first game, though playing for Freo who knows if he actually gets to play much if at all this year.

Otherwise it's more those second+ year types who have impressed and look a lot better.

 

[Pykie]

I won't take apart the whole list. But these last few left me wondering.

Trent McKenzie may not be a regular and I wouldn't be shocked at years end if he was delisted. He has regressed badly in recent seasons and no signs this offseason that he will turn things around.

Bradshaw? Daniel Bradshaw was one of the better forwards from the 00s but has retired some years ago now. You might want to think re-think who you actually meant at 49.

Ben Brown is very reliable in front of goal. He can have a career at AFL level. He isn't a top 50 player from 2010-2015 or 2010-2014 for that matter though. The desired outcome for Brown is that he becomes something like a taller Jay Schulz, and I'm not even sure he can quite become who Schulz has developed into.

Yet Schulz is probably a top 5 player from his draft and would find himself in most top 50 lists from a 4 year period surrounding his draft year. He's kicked 40+ the last 4 seasons.

Brown is on par with most young forwards his age, barring the few exceptional ones, considering he was a ruckman through must of juniors and his body strength when he entered the league, he's still got a considerable amount of development in him.

 

[Knightmare]

Yet Schulz is probably a top 5 player from his draft and would find himself in most top 50 lists from a 4 year period surrounding his draft year. He's kicked 40+ the last 4 seasons.

Brown is on par with most young forwards his age, barring the few exceptional ones, considering he was a ruckman through must of juniors and his body strength when he entered the league, he's still got a considerable amount of development in him.

There were guys overlooked in 2002 (when Schulz were drafted) that went on to have better careers than Schulz. I can name 4 of them in: Matt Priddis, Josh Gibson, Dale Morris, Michael Johnson.

Of those drafted in 2002 (a weak draft): Brendon Goddard, Daniel Wells, Jobe Watson, Jarrad McVeigh, Tom Lonergan, Kade Simpson, Andrew Mackie, Joel Patfull, Craig Bolton, Nick Maxwell, Nick Malceski, Sean Dempster, Brad Sewell are among those I would prefer to Schulz (on career impact from 2002 onward).

And given the strength of that special 2001 draft, Schulz would definitely not feature as a best 50 player from any set of four years worth of drafts.

And that's not taking into account that Schulz didn't achieve success at the club he was drafted to (Richmond) eventually getting traded for pick 71 and Mitchell Farmer.

As for talking key forwards born in 1992 on since given that is the year of Ben Brown's birth. Jesse Hogan, Jeremy Cameron, Tom Lynch (GC), Jake Stringer, Jack Darling, Josh Bruce, Cameron McCarthy and Joe Daniher are all better than Brown. Further to this I also would back Thomas Boyd, Jon Patton, Patrick McCartin, Josh Schache and Darcy Moore to go on to have stronger careers and in the next 1-3 years pass Brown by.

Brown is a perfectly suitable key forward for AFL play. I advocated he get drafted years before he was actually selected, so he is someone I really enjoy seeing go well. But perfectly suitable for AFL play is what he is. He isn't by position someone has superior ability/production to others, but given his excellent set shot goalkicking accuracy, in the way Schulz makes himself worthwhile, Brown similarly does so, though with still milder numbers across the board by comparison to Schulz.

 

[Coxy_]

Am I in Bay13....

 

[Hawthorngoatie]

Hi Knightmare,

I love reading your Phantom every year and especially enjoy the level of interaction and patience you show with responses. Every year I ask you one question and you've yet to steer me wrong

So in that spirit, I was wondering what your thoughts were (from a DT perspective only) on some of the later picks in this years draft and/or rookie selections. I apologise if you've already answered these questions, although please note I'm not asking about guys like Mills, Oliver, Keays etc. I have several late picks in a keeper league and I am looking to speculate on some mature age players or conversely some less hyped players who might sit on my list for a year or two before blossoming, especially defenders and forwards.

Thanks in advance!

Cheers

HawkGoatie

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare,

I love reading your Phantom every year and especially enjoy the level of interaction and patience you show with responses. Every year I ask you one question and you've yet to steer me wrong

So in that spirit, I was wondering what your thoughts were (from a DT perspective only) on some of the later picks in this years draft and/or rookie selections. I apologise if you've already answered these questions, although please note I'm not asking about guys like Mills, Oliver, Keays etc. I have several late picks in a keeper league and I am looking to speculate on some mature age players or conversely some less hyped players who might sit on my list for a year or two before blossoming, especially defenders and forwards.

Thanks in advance!

Cheers

HawkGoatie

I have posted thoughout the past few pages some thoughts on some fantasy football types.

DT as in AFL Fantasy?

Def: Josh Wagner, Michael Hartley, Nathan Broad, Ciaran Byrne, Clay Cameron, Kieran Collins, Samuel Collins, Marcus Adams, Dean Terlich, Sam Shaw, Aaron Mullett, Darcy Tucker and Mitch Brown are those rookie type priced types who will get games. Tom Ruggles, Harrison Wigg, Nic Newman and Nathan Drummond may be among others who may get games at some point.

Ruck: Mason Cox, Reilly O'Brien and Sam Frost are among those better rookie priced rucks who I expect to get games at AFL level.

Mid: Adam Marcon, Ryan Davis, Will Fordham, Dean Gore, Josh Smith (when healthy), Jarrad Jansen, Connor Blakely, Rhys Mathieson, Luke Partington, Kieran Lovell, Ryan Clarke, Brayden Fiorini, Lachie Weller, Ben Keays, Bailey Dale and Jade Gresham are all worth keeping an eye on.

Fwd: Lincoln McCarthy, Andrew Gallucci, Tom Phillips, Michael Close, Michael Luxford, Dougal Howard, Jordan Dawson, Zac Webster, Liam Sumner and Blake Hardwick are worth looking at.

There aren't a great deal of likely high scorers and there won't be any 100 averages from these and maybe no 90 averages from any of these either this year.

In terms of capacity to score, it's much of a muchness overall. Mills probably top scores this year of the first year players and probably averages around 80dt.

The overall dynamic in all fantasy games in my view anyway this year is down back is where the rookie value is in terms of rookie priced types with the forward options also looking pretty reasonable. My recommendation is capitalise on the defence and forward rookie priced types I list here and you'll from a rookie perspective set yourself up pretty well - be it a draft style fantasy game or whatever fantasy football variant people are playing.

Let me know if there is anything more specific you want to ask.

I've also bolded those with an at least reasonable capacity to score at AFL level.

 

[Hawthorngoatie]

That is a great help, thank you!

The comp I play in uses DT/AFLFL scoring but does not have a salary cap. It's just a pure draft format adding to my list from this year's draftees. The comp has quite a few teams with deep benches, so players who average 75 as defenders or forwards have definite value. It's also keeper league, so I am not obsessed with them playing this year, as I can develop them on my bench. A lot of the guys you have mentioned I will certainly be looking into. Again, thank you.

Some players I have a particular interest and would love your thoughts on are Schoenfeld, Sier, Bailey Rice and Crocker.

Cheers again

 

[Knightmare]

That is a great help, thank you!

The comp I play in uses DT/AFLFL scoring but does not have a salary cap. It's just a pure draft format adding to my list from this year's draftees. The comp has quite a few teams with deep benches, so players who average 75 as defenders or forwards have definite value. It's also keeper league, so I am not obsessed with them playing this year, as I can develop them on my bench. A lot of the guys you have mentioned I will certainly be looking into. Again, thank you.

Some players I have a particular interest and would love your thoughts on are Schoenfeld, Sier, Bailey Rice and Crocker.

Cheers again

I did something along these lines some pages back for a competition along those lines. That would be the better post to go by. But largely go off my page one rankings for a draft type thing and incorporate mature agers who look likely to play and position needs into it and that's pretty much it.

 

[Hawthorngoatie]

My bad, I must have missed that one. I scroll back and find it. Thanks again, much appreciated

 

[tenderwarrior]

Tom Phillips from Collingwood I flat out love. Loved him going into the draft and still do. He could average 70ppg this year and could be a 90-100 scorer as a mid/fwd and a long term player.

did you do a profile write up on Tom? I would love to read it if it exists, cheers.

 

[Knightmare]

did you do a profile write up on Tom? I would love to read it if it exists, cheers.

Page 1.

 

[tenderwarrior]

Page 1.

Really? Sorry, I must be blind.

 

[Glenny83]

Hey KM, What are your thoughts on Ben Jarman for this years draft?