Vic Predict the outcome of the 2018 Victorian State Election

[Bombermania]

He was suggesting that there are more medium and high density developments with new tenants and the demographic is shifting from just a suburb full of owners of large houses in leafy streets.

Yet looking at the results, the biggest swings were in the lefty street booths.

The following link shows the booth results and it is clear we see double digit swings in leafty street booths meanwhile Glenferrie and Auburn booths which have younger demographic swung less than 10%

https://www.pollbludger.net/results/vic2018results-district.htm

 

[nobbyiscool]

Holy ****. There's been some hilariously, outrageous bad takes in this thread since last night!

 

[sherb]

A couple of things:-

1) All the people saying that Sudanese don't commit crime.

Sorry, my eyesight must be going, as I am sure that the guy running around in the city a couple of weeks ago with a knife, killing one and injuring two others, was black-skinned. I must be wrong, as it is only white people who commit crime, according to lefties.

Your comprehension is going as well as your eyesight, because no-one is saying either of those things.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

The LNP is still a one-trick pony. The last two liberal campaigns were on the back of pretty sizeable government deficits. When the state cash flow is going well, they've really got nothing to campaign on.

 

[Pessimistic]

Ex-Family First et al members did not infiltrate the Liberal Party. Kroger and his allies deliberately recruited them to make the party hard right.



Labor plans for Melbourne as it is and will be. Liberals talked about having people move to the country. Plenty of well off people saw that was laughable in the short term and would take decades in the long term and picked Labor.

While a certain amount of investment to make regions more attractive is useful, decentralising within Melbourne has to be the policy priority For a decade now people have been saying this ( the 20 minute city) but the tide towards more people travelling to and working in the city has continued.
There been gnashing of teeth over this, but the suburban rail loop may be the basis of creating local centres at rail intersections. There’s obviously a lot more policy initiatives also needed.

Just imagine if you do make the move to geelong or the valley, and your fast rail connection not only gets you easily to the CBD, but also to other centres like Monash, Deakin, Doncaster the airport via a suburban loop connection.

There’s low activity centres like Glen Waverley etc which could be flattened and replaced by beautiful centres built for the 21st century with little loss at all

 

[NSWCROW]

I don't think we will have a conservative govt for a long time.

I think society is gripped with political correctness, and people don't want to be seen as not being inclusive, racist, sexist, homophobic etc, so they vote in a way which makes them feel like they are a good person who accepts all.

The media and the Left have made conservatives out to be worse than Nazis, and with social media being so prominent, you will never get hard-nosed conservatives whose No1 priority is getting the budget into surplus, as caring for people has become more important, and many think that you can't be both a nice person and be wise with money as well.

please

just stop

 

[Jibroni]

Starting to think SA voted lib just to be edgy

No, 20 years of Labor sending this state backwards was enough.

 

[Jascave]

Surprised to see the Sunday Herald Sun being magnanimous in congratulating Daniel Andrews and Labor on last night's election win. However, don't expect Neil Mitchell on 3AW to be quite so congratulatory on his program tomorrow morning.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[NSWCROW]

What you have is massive immigration stuffing up the political systems in this country. Virtually all immigrants vote labor because they want more immigration to bring in their extended families and then want more social welfare handouts to support their non-contributory lifestyle at the expense of the Australian taxpayer. The political party likely to deliver this is labor who have long since given up representing working class Australians and are pretty much now the party for ideological politics, SJWs, queers and immigrants.

It is little wonder that politicians of the ilk of Tony Burke will write to the Immigration Minister in support of visas for extremist islamic hate preachers but the ABC can only report about two au pairs (those greatest sin was that they were white).

The dilution of what it is to be Australian makes me think you should only get to vote if you've been born in the country. It would also be a good idea if governments stopped funding the ABC and SBS which is essentially just a subsidy for labor's agenda.

 

[Bombermania]

It is looking like 55 out of 88 seats. Up from 45. Big swing towards them from what was 50-50 but hardly the bloodbath everyone is saying it is.

By Victorian election standards it is a bloodbath, Victoria has never really been a big swinging state and rarely swings towards the government so on both those accounts its a big result.

 

[TimmeT]

Isn’t the Victorian budget in surplus?

It is but will end up in the same situation as what the fed one is estimated to happen with debt high but budget in surplus.

You goose , moving right is the REASON they had their arse handed to them last night !!!


" Let's go further right !! "

Libs be like " thank **** this blokes not a party member "

I'm seriously shocked but I actually am absolutely agreeing with you on this point. The right wing fruitcake ****faces are the ones who need to get ejected.

 

[Bombermania]

Businesses go out to make a profit. If they don't, they go out of business.

Governments should be aiming to keep more money than they spend, or else we go into recession.

But that means putting up taxes, and the electorate hate paying even one cent of tax. We want hospitals, schools and roads, and for everyone else to pay for it. Such is the age of entitlement.

Its really about cash flow, a business will often take on debt which then creates future income, in the case of the Victorian government, it rarely if ever has a surplus and the debt is being raised to fund infrastructure projects that will generate a return to the government. The issue with debt management is the purpose of the debt and the ability to cover repayments, and the state should be able to do both as long as the debt is going towards generating future returns to the government which infrastructure government can do.

 

[GreatBradScott]

People have resoundingly rejected the post-materialist nonsense of the Greens and the Liberals.

Turns out improving people's lives is a good electoral policy.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

chris murphy‏ @chrismurphys 5h5 hours ago
The Minister for Israel, Josh Frydenberg says the Labor win in Melbourne was a localised problem. Victoria is Australia’s Gaza.
Dutton & Frydenberg working with Scott Morrison will continue their war on blacks, Muslims and refugees! #auspol

 

[Jughead77]

I thought one of the interesting things about last night is it looks like the ALP has made inroads into the Chinese Australian vote who traditionally aren't that keen on them.

This is correct. My family are Malaysian-Chinese who moved here in the 80s. There are about 30 of us spread out through Mt Waverly, Burwood and Box Hill. Most would be rusted on liberal supporters in the past. This election i think almost all went Labor. Infrastructure was the number 1 issue for us, that and we totally oppose the politics of hate. We especially remember the late 80s and early 90s when there was fear mongering of Vietnamese and Asian gangs, so we can relate to what the Africans are copping atm.

I'm very proud that we made a difference this election.

 

[Bombermania]

It's looking like pre polling has heavily favoured the libs, a lot of those eastern seats that were called to the ALP are now comfortable for the libs or have been brought back to the in doubt category. They will gain ringwood, box hill and burwood by my calculations but the others will stay liberal imo. So instead of a bloodbath the Andrew's government will be win comfortably 53-54 to 30 or something like that.

I think Box Hill is gone, its 52-48 with 76% counted, the Liberals could pull that back but its a fair margin that late into the count.

 

[Hornberger]

Looking at votes for the upper house, their appears to be a substantial increase in below the line voting.

Taking the Northern Metropolitan Region as an example, 14.1% of people voted below the line. This compares to 8.6% for the people who voted on election day in 2014.

If you exclude the ALP and LNP, for people who voted for the minor and micro parties 24.3% voted below the line.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

I think Box Hill is gone, its 52-48 with 76% counted, the Liberals could pull that back but its a fair margin that late into the count.

Amazing

 

[NSWCROW]

Who's seen HIGHLANDER ??

 

[Dixie Flatline]

I can't help but laugh at the Greens blaming Labor for running a negative campaign based on the Greens' missteps. How about you properly vet your candidates before preselecting them next time?

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...-in-key-inner-city-seats-20181124-p50i4y.html

 

[TimmeT]

I think Box Hill is gone, its 52-48 with 76% counted, the Liberals could pull that back but its a fair margin that late into the count.

Absolutely gone. I think that people also had had enough of the Shadow AG and do nothing local member of parliament.

 

[Elroo]

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Pressuto said they (Libs) had been encouraged by pre polling

Would it be true the Libs had biggest swings against where they campaigned the hardest? That suggests the message was off

These are currently the electorates with the biggest recorded swings to the ALP:



Not sure that there is a clear trend to the ALP in seats that the LNP campaigned hardest.

 

[Bombermania]

Come again!

Obviously you didn’t see the negative ALP ads they ran against Guy.

Obviously you didn’t see the blatant political attack against Guy in regards to Ventnor which led to the details of private citizens being leaked!

Obviously you didn’t see Dan force the only ALP politician with integrity, Jane Garrett out of Cabinet because she wouldn’t roll over to Peter Marshall like Dan does. What does Peter Marshall have on Dan Andrews and James Merlino?

I don’t think the above stands up to the lightest of scrutiny.

The ads are a normal part of election campaigning, I am referring to the period between election campaigns, and the Garrett v Marshall feud was part of the normal political process with Garrett having the last laugh over Marshall as she is now safely in the upper house.

 

[GreatBradScott]

Realistically, the North East Link and West Gate Tunnel could be finished by the next election.

And two seats in the inner eastern suburbs will likely be removed in VEC redistribution, replaced with two new seats in Labor's safe north-west suburbs.

Add the fact the sandbelt and other marginals are now sandbagged by more than 10%, this has the Liberals seriously behind the 8-ball for 2022.