ELECTION NIGHT: The OFFICIAL RESULTS THREAD

[evo]

Only an ALP govt can boast having Albanese, Swan, Wong, Plibersek and Garrett.

Albanese is my new favourite guy in politics to laugh at. As usual I should've listened to you earlier on who are the most ridiculous people in the ALP.

BTW, Tony Burke should be added to that list of yours.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

The ALP have reclaimed 2PP lead, not that it really matters.....

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...-party-preferred/story-fn59niix-1225912327439

 

[Pessimistic]

How can you really pull out any numbers - one party is a coalition after all - they preference within the coalition

Seems to me only seats count. they counted in 1998

 

[Andre]

Corangamite back to a lead of 733 to the ALP. Can't see that closing much more, but I bet there are a few at ALP HQ with no fingernails and rank pants refreshing the AEC site every 10 seconds

 

[rizzo]

Corangamite back to a lead of 733 to the ALP. Can't see that closing much more, but I bet there are a few at ALP HQ with no fingernails and rank pants refreshing the AEC site every 10 seconds

Darren Cheeseman has claimed victory

 

[showdownhero]

No. But it's a pretty good start. I'll put the apology as a major non-economic win.

Care to present any authoritative evidence that the stimulus package was the reason we didn't experience a recession?

As for the apology, I was under the impression that everyone had realised what a pointless exercise it was. Empty words... nothing has changed.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/24/2992280.htm

 

[Hollow Knight]

Care to present any authoritative evidence that the stimulus package was the reason we didn't experience a recession?

I think conventional economic thought shows that increased government spending (whether by stimulus payments or infrastructure investment) is a pretty surefire way to counter (at least somewhat) a downturn in economic activity.

Whether it is sensible policy to rack up debt to do so is another issue altogether. That was pretty much the great economic debate post WW2. (Keynesians vs Austrians).

 

[Caesar]

You're about to cop it from meds for advocating Keynesian economics, but...

The issue (at least to me) is the size of the package - the Liberals proposed a package as well, don't forget. There is also evidence that the economy was already recovering prior to a lot of the Labor spending kicking off. How relevant was a stimulus compared to the other factors about our economy? Other countries had much bigger packages that didn't work nearly as well.

I don't think Keynesian theories are total bunk, but I do think that government spending is an overrated panacea.

 

[Hollow Knight]

You're about to cop it from meds for advocating Keynesian economics, but...

Where did I advocate it? Thought I gave a pretty objective answer.

 

[showdownhero]

I think conventional economic thought shows that increased government spending (whether by stimulus payments or infrastructure investment) is a pretty surefire way to counter (at least somewhat) a downturn in economic activity.

Whether it is sensible policy to rack up debt to do so is another issue altogether. That was pretty much the great economic debate post WW2. (Keynesians vs Austrians).

I meant authoritative evidence that the stimulus package enacted by the Labor Government prevent the Australian economy from recession.

 

[Hollow Knight]

I meant authoritative evidence that the stimulus package enacted by the Labor Government prevent the Australian economy from recession.

Oh... very hard to entirely prove or disprove.

Probably played a small part but whether its impact/contribution justifies the cost is another issue. I find Labor's argument that they kept Australia out of recession about as convincing as Howard and Costello claiming credit for Australia's booming economy during their tenure. Not very convincing at all.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

More on this from AdelaideNow.

The margin in Boothby is now 339 votes to Andrew Southcott after the AEC excluded the 2,977 pre-poll votes deemed to have been handled in a way which contravened provisions of the Commonwealth Electoral Act.

Southcott is still expected to hold the seat, but Labor has not ruled out going to the Court of Disputed Returns..

link

 

[Caesar]

You changed your post after I replied.

 

[Last of the Roys]

The margin in Boothby is now 339 votes to Andrew Southcott after the AEC excluded the 2,977 pre-poll votes deemed to have been handled in a way which contravened provisions of the Commonwealth Electoral Act.

Southcott is still expected to hold the seat, but Labor has not ruled out going to the Court of Disputed Returns..

link

I think article reads as though the lead has been cut by 339 votes rather than cut to 339 votes. That is why it is not on the AEC's close seat list.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

I think article reads as though the lead has been cut by 339 votes rather than cut to 339 votes. That is why it is not on the AEC's close seat list.

Ssshhh I was trying to make it sound more exciting. Don't we want this election to go on forever?

 

[Andre]

Ssshhh I was trying to make it sound more exciting. Don't we want this election to go on forever?

At the rate the independents are making up their minds it could be time for the next one by the time they pick a winner of this

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Michael Pascoe from The Age thinks the country indies could split and it could finish 75-75.

So even if they make up their minds, it still goes on.

 

[Caesar]

I can believe they'll split, but I don't think they'll let it finish 75-75. They're too keen to get an outcome.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

ALP extends its 2PP lead.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...d-over-coalition/story-fn59niix-1225912377703

 

[Dry Rot]

Albanese is my new favourite guy in politics to laugh at. As usual I should've listened to you earlier on who are the most ridiculous people in the ALP.

BTW, Tony Burke should be added to that list of yours.

Agreed. Tool.

Perhaps the worst thing about Burke is that he actually takes himself seriously.

 

[Hawkamania!]

Still too close to call or celebrate prematurely. The coalition has jumped back in front 2PP by 457 at 7:10:14 pm on the AEC website.

And to put things into perspective, currently 13.34% of enrolled voters didn't turn out to cast a vote. Of the 86.66% that voted, 5.57% of that turnout voted informal.

On that note, no party has achieved over 50% of the two party vote.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

Still too close to call or celebrate prematurely. The coalition has jumped back in front 2PP by 457 at 7:10:14 pm on the AEC website.

And to put things into perspective, currently 13.34% of enrolled voters did turn out to cast a vote. Of the 86.66% that voted, 5.57% of that turnout voted informal.

On that note, no party has achieved over 50% of the two party vote.

Incredible. That has to be a first....?

This election is so clearly about how disenchanted the electorate has become with both major parties. And with good reason.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Optional preferential voting is the only way to get a clear read on the electorate should this sort of stalemate happen in the future.

i.e. the preferencing is optional, not the act of voting.

 

[Andre]

Optional preferential voting is the only way to get a clear read on the electorate should this sort of stalemate happen in the future.

i.e. the preferencing is optional, not the act of voting.

Agreed, people shouldn't to choose whether to put the ALP or Coalition 6th or 7th on a ballot paper, then have that used as justification for winning the national 2PP.

Morally it's hard to argue against Optional preferential voting, but I can't see the ALP supporting it. They'd either have to shift Left to ensure they capture the Greens 2nd preferences and not have Greens voters just vote 1 Greens - and risk losing first preferences from the Centre, or they stay in the Centre to keep their primary vote high 30's at least and lose those 2nd preferences from the Left for being a Coalition-Lite on issues beloved by the Left. With OPV I can easily see the ALP would be damned whichever way they move.

 

[Chief]

Still too close to call or celebrate prematurely. The coalition has jumped back in front 2PP by 457 at 7:10:14 pm on the AEC website.

And the AEC says not to take much notice of that, as it involves some to-ing and fro-ing with the numbers actually included in the figure.

Wait a bit until they say they are confident of the number.