2017 Ladder Predictions

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Connar said:
Because many people said that GWS won't make the 8 this year this time 12 Months ago, but look what happen, they made Top 4 and went straight to the Prelims.
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Yeah I see what you're saying, but the Dockers have nowhere near the talent of the Giants. That doesn't mean they can't make the jump back into the 8 as they do have some promising youngsters but they are not as highly credentialed as the Giants.
 
Jobe Watson said:
Have you seen their draw?

I really like St.Kilda's list for the future and would've had them as a monty to make the top 8 before the fixtures came out, but receiving the 3rd hardest draw according to Champion Data will make it tough. If they play finals they will damn sure have earned it.


Why? It's where most of the bookies have you.

North have arguably the worst youth stocks in the league (just 10 AFL games combined from your last 2 crops of draftees [yes I know they've had injuries]) and once again drafted project-player flanker types in the 2nd/3rd rounds the other night who will struggle to make an immediate impact. You lost your best midfielder in Wells and lost a heck of a lot of experience through the "retirements" of Harvey, Dal Santo, Petrie and Firrito.

North's list doesn't look very good, certainly not for season 2017 anyway. An easy draw (probably THE easiest) is the only thing that may help you avoid bottom 4.
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Alternatively...

True, we lost our best midfielder in Wells, but in the two years prior to this one he barely played and we made two prelims. Recent history proves that we can cope, and indeed, thrive, without him.

Harvey's attacking output and experience is irreplaceable, it will need a collective effort from our young half-forwards in Garner, Turner, Anderson, Hrovat, Wagner and Simpkin, as well as the return of a fully fit Higgins, to make up the difference. If there is a positive in that it is that all of those guys are significantly better defensively than Harvey, but, no doubt, we are a poorer team for his absence.

Dal Santo isn't really a big loss. Sure, he has experience, but he was slow and awful defensively. He also lost a lot of depth and class with his kicking since his hamstring injury. I'm pretty confident we won't feel his loss at all with MacMillan (a much underrated player outside of North) playing more midfield, the continued emergence of Clarke, the addition of Hrovat and McDonald returning to full fitness and moving to the midfield. In fact, an argument could certainly be made that we'll actually be better without him and with a more dynamic mix filling his position/role.

Petrie was lucky to not be dropped this season. He's not a loss at all based on the last 18 months. In fact, his output had diminished so much that I'm of the opinion that we'll be better without him. A tall/medium forward mix of Brown, Waite, Daw and Wood is exciting, dynamic, unpredictable and better without Petrie.

Firrito was solid enough over the last couple of seasons but ultimately he plays the role that is probably the easiest to replace. While decent, he was hardly crucial to our finals run and will be replaced by the returning Wright and a mix of Vickers-Willis (who most believed should have been given a debut this season, particularly after he played really well on Jake Stringer in the VFL) a young guy in Hibberd, the addition of Marley Williams and maybe even Hansen if he can return to his intercepting best. Perhaps not the best group of replacements with most inexperienced, but we don't lose much, if anything, by replacing Firrito with them.

To tally it up, we lose and will definitely miss a mid and a half forward of irreplaceable class and attacking output. But with the exception of experience, that's about it. In fact, by replacing Dal Santo and Petrie with better players or a different mix we may actually improve in those positions.

The positive to consider is the return to full fitness of a lot of players who missed large chunks of this season. Higgins, Wood, Waite, Garner, Jacobs, McDonald and Wright were all absent for significant periods of time and every single one of those guys make us a better side when they're back next season and fully fit. A majority of the replacements for our retirees come from those players, not the inexperienced youth that everyone seems to think we'll play next season. Our core group are all in that 21-26 age group. Turner and Anderson fully fit fit improves our depth as well. Hrovat is borderline best 22 but improves our depth and I'm personally of the opinion that if Marley Williams returns to his 2015 form he's comfortably best 22 by virtue of being better than Atley - although, admittedly, that's a low bar to set.

Anyway, I get that this isn't a North thread but some of the misconceptions from other fans about our retirements and where we're at are hilariously ill-informed and, frankly, absolute nonsense. Personally, I would be gobsmacked if we finish lower than 12th and disappointed if we're not at least challenging for the top 8. Willing to put a full off-season avatar bet on that too if anybody can be bothered remembering it for all of next season.
 

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Charlie Payne said:
Well yes, but you wouldn't know about huge Membership tally's would you, as your MFC m'ship doesn't get you into Falls Creek.
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And huge membership wins games does it?

Sent from my SM-P555 using Tapatalk
 
sivart said:
And huge membership wins games does it?

Sent from my SM-P555 using Tapatalk
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Membership and banners.

Whoever has the most banners in the crowd wins.
 
kangaspurs said:
Alternatively...

True, we lost our best midfielder in Wells, but in the two years prior to this one he barely played and we made two prelims. Recent history proves that we can cope, and indeed, thrive, without him.

Fair Point.

Harvey's attacking output and experience is irreplaceable, it will need a collective effort from our young half-forwards in Garner, Turner, Anderson, Hrovat, Wagner and Simpkin, as well as the return of a fully fit Higgins, to make up the difference. If there is a positive in that it is that all of those guys are significantly better defensively than Harvey, but, no doubt, we are a poorer team for his absence.

Higgins is injury prone unfortunately if he does stay fit like 2015 then yes he helps.
Those young players you listed are speculative to improve on more opportunity. They could stagnate.

Dal Santo isn't really a big loss. Sure, he has experience, but he was slow and awful defensively. He also lost a lot of depth and class with his kicking since his hamstring injury. I'm pretty confident we won't feel his loss at all with MacMillan (a much underrated player outside of North) playing more midfield, the continued emergence of Clarke, the addition of Hrovat and McDonald returning to full fitness and moving to the midfield. In fact, an argument could certainly be made that we'll actually be better without him and with a more dynamic mix filling his position/role.

Dal Santo may have lost alot of pace but he still averaged 24.8 disposals in 2016. Right now can only speculate who will fill the gap.

Petrie was lucky to not be dropped this season. He's not a loss at all based on the last 18 months. In fact, his output had diminished so much that I'm of the opinion that we'll be better without him. A tall/medium forward mix of Brown, Waite, Daw and Wood is exciting, dynamic, unpredictable and better without Petrie.

Remove Waite from that list he is cooked. Playing a good patch of games then getting injured for most of the season doesn't help.
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If your youth stands up then yes you should avoid bottom 4. But will it? Looking at alot the young players you mentioned alot of them need career best seasons.
Certainly not a finals chance.
15th to 11th my range.
 
RobbieGray17 said:
Bravery, I like it

GWS
Western Bulldogs
Port
Geelong
Sydney
West Coast
Melbourne
St Kilda

Adelaide
Gold Coast
Carlton
Fremantle
Hawthorn
Richmond
Brisbane
Essendon
Collingwood
North Melbourne

Premiers - Port
Brownlow - Ablett
Coleman - Franklin
Rising star - SPP
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Well I respect your right to back your team, and concede a long standing dislike of Port. But seriously thanks for the chuckle as I get ready for work on a Monday morning!
 
Jobe Watson said:
Have you seen their draw? I really like St.Kilda's list for the future and would've had them as a monty to make the top 8 before the fixtures came out, but receiving the 3rd hardest draw according to Champion Data will make it tough. If they play finals they will damn sure have earned it.
Click to expand...
You cannot even start to decode how hard a team's fixture is before about round 10. For example, last year most would have thought playing Freo was a negative / next year playing North who finished 8th compared to playing say Gold Coast who finished 15th ... which will be tougher? / Is playing the 18th ranked Essendon going to be the easiest game of the year? etc... Using the prior year's performances to determine the next year's fixture toughness is fraught with stupidity.
 
Capt Hindsight said:
Wait till Buckley hears about this. Collingwood will be unstoppable. Free banners to all the faithful.
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I can see Collingwood being 3-7 at round 11 and Eddie being quizzed over Bucks job security when he comes out with this pearler
'We really need more banners to start winning, that isn't Buckleys fault'
 
Everyone loves to hate the Bombers, but I have a feeling the team will surprise most next season. Some of the most talented kids in AFL are going to be lining up next season in red and black. Look at guys like Merrett, McGrath, Parish, Francis, Langford, Fantasia, Daniher, Laverde etc. They've all got the potential to be elite whilst Heppell, Hurley, Hooker and co. are still playing very good football. I'd say there'd be at least 10-11 sides that'd love to have the same amount of young talent.
 

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Dockers will have a much easier draw.
After last year they will have a rocket up them from day 1.
They have removed the foot soldiers aND brought in skill sets.
Fyfe, a.Pearce, bennel & mj not being injured for the while season will be a bonus.
Pav leaving is a bonus. We have become so pav centric over the years, when he slowed down it made it mych harder to kick a winning score.
And no chris mayne .
 
Noting that WCE now have the oldest list in the AFL, I am expecting a dramatic fall from grace for them.

Am I doing it right, it is so hard to keep up with the BF way of doing business.
 
kangaspurs said:
Alternatively...

True, we lost our best midfielder in Wells, but in the two years prior to this one he barely played and we made two prelims. Recent history proves that we can cope, and indeed, thrive, without him.

Harvey's attacking output and experience is irreplaceable, it will need a collective effort from our young half-forwards in Garner, Turner, Anderson, Hrovat, Wagner and Simpkin, as well as the return of a fully fit Higgins, to make up the difference. If there is a positive in that it is that all of those guys are significantly better defensively than Harvey, but, no doubt, we are a poorer team for his absence.

Dal Santo isn't really a big loss. Sure, he has experience, but he was slow and awful defensively. He also lost a lot of depth and class with his kicking since his hamstring injury. I'm pretty confident we won't feel his loss at all with MacMillan (a much underrated player outside of North) playing more midfield, the continued emergence of Clarke, the addition of Hrovat and McDonald returning to full fitness and moving to the midfield. In fact, an argument could certainly be made that we'll actually be better without him and with a more dynamic mix filling his position/role.

Petrie was lucky to not be dropped this season. He's not a loss at all based on the last 18 months. In fact, his output had diminished so much that I'm of the opinion that we'll be better without him. A tall/medium forward mix of Brown, Waite, Daw and Wood is exciting, dynamic, unpredictable and better without Petrie.

Firrito was solid enough over the last couple of seasons but ultimately he plays the role that is probably the easiest to replace. While decent, he was hardly crucial to our finals run and will be replaced by the returning Wright and a mix of Vickers-Willis (who most believed should have been given a debut this season, particularly after he played really well on Jake Stringer in the VFL) a young guy in Hibberd, the addition of Marley Williams and maybe even Hansen if he can return to his intercepting best. Perhaps not the best group of replacements with most inexperienced, but we don't lose much, if anything, by replacing Firrito with them.

To tally it up, we lose and will definitely miss a mid and a half forward of irreplaceable class and attacking output. But with the exception of experience, that's about it. In fact, by replacing Dal Santo and Petrie with better players or a different mix we may actually improve in those positions.

The positive to consider is the return to full fitness of a lot of players who missed large chunks of this season. Higgins, Wood, Waite, Garner, Jacobs, McDonald and Wright were all absent for significant periods of time and every single one of those guys make us a better side when they're back next season and fully fit. A majority of the replacements for our retirees come from those players, not the inexperienced youth that everyone seems to think we'll play next season. Our core group are all in that 21-26 age group. Turner and Anderson fully fit fit improves our depth as well. Hrovat is borderline best 22 but improves our depth and I'm personally of the opinion that if Marley Williams returns to his 2015 form he's comfortably best 22 by virtue of being better than Atley - although, admittedly, that's a low bar to set.

Anyway, I get that this isn't a North thread but some of the misconceptions from other fans about our retirements and where we're at are hilariously ill-informed and, frankly, absolute nonsense. Personally, I would be gobsmacked if we finish lower than 12th and disappointed if we're not at least challenging for the top 8. Willing to put a full off-season avatar bet on that too if anybody can be bothered remembering it for all of next season.
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I don't rate North up forward or down back. Pretty simple.

Forward:
Talls: Brown, Waite, Majak
Med/smalls: Higgins, Wood

You're going to need someone to step up big time here. Two of your top 4 goalkickers are gone (Harvey and Petrie) and Waite, despite his 2015 form, has an injury/brain fade habit. Ben Brown will be the #1 banana now - is he up to it?

Back:
Tall: Tarrant, Thompson
Med/small: McDonald, MacMillan, Atley

Tarrant is a god but Thommo will be 31 in May and has looked slow for 3 years. McDonald is young and still needs to build, while Atley and MacMillan are pedestrian.
 
Okay...trade week is done, the draft is done, the fixture is set, i'll have another crack at this fortune telling business:
GWS
Sydney
Bulldogs
Adelaide
Geelong
Melbourne
St Kilda
Hawthorn

West Coast
Fremantle
Essendon
Collingwood
Port Adelaide
Richmond
Carlton
Gold Coast
North Melbourne
Brisbane

Grand Final GWS v take your pick?
 
B4Bear said:
Noting that WCE now have the oldest list in the AFL, I am expecting a dramatic fall from grace for them.

Am I doing it right, it is so hard to keep up with the BF way of doing business.
Click to expand...


That chip on your shoulder is reaching chasm proportions.
The issue with north was the age of the list coupled with how s**t you were playing. It wasn't as simple as being young>good.

If west coast go 3-12 at any point of the season they will get the north treatment
 
Striker475 said:
I don't rate North up forward or down back. Pretty simple.

Forward:
Talls: Brown, Waite, Majak
Med/smalls: Higgins, Wood

You're going to need someone to step up big time here. Two of your top 4 goalkickers are gone (Harvey and Petrie) and Waite, despite his 2015 form, has an injury/brain fade habit. Ben Brown will be the #1 banana now - is he up to it?

Back:
Tall: Tarrant, Thompson
Med/small: McDonald, MacMillan, Atley

Tarrant is a god but Thommo will be 31 in May and has looked slow for 3 years. McDonald is young and still needs to build, while Atley and MacMillan are pedestrian.
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Nah. Our Forward line is dynamic, multi-dimensional and much less predictable without Petrie. The area where we will struggle is finding the outside class or mixing up our game plan to get it to them quickly to give them a chance.

Higgins - Waite - Wood
Thomas - Brown - Garner

With Daw on the bench is exciting imo. There is goals, class and defensive pressure in that group of forwards.

Our defense is a little bit more of a concern with Thompson still needed to play on the 2nd talls Vickers-Willis, who played really well on Jake Stringer in the VFL fwiw, is the leading contender to come in to take Firrito's role. No doubt that Atley is s**t, but MacMilan is much underrated outside North. He's an excellent kick and a really smart footballer. He'll play more up the ground anyway. Hopefully Williams can get back to his 2015 form and replace, or perhaps play alongside Atley to give us more run and a harder edge down there. McDoanld is fine as well, in fact, he was having an excellent season this year before he tore his hamstring, but he'll probably move to the midfield anyway.
 
ManOfClay said:
That chip on your shoulder is reaching chasm proportions.
The issue with north was the age of the list coupled with how s**t you were playing. It wasn't as simple as being young>good.

If west coast go 3-12 at any point of the season they will get the north treatment
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Yeah, nah. You can rewrite history as much as you want. The argument has always been that the list was too old.
 
B4Bear said:
Yeah, nah. You can rewrite history as much as you want. The argument has always been that the list was too old.
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Too old isn't a problem if you are good.

This is hilarious. North fans were all over everybody when swallow, ziebell and atley were "young guns".
 
GWS
Dogs
Sydney
Adelaide
Geelong
Hawks
West Coast
Melbourne

Saints
Essendon

*Actually think Essendon have a good shot at the 8, but the 8 this year is going to be even tighter than last year.
 
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