2017 Ladder Predictions

[wizzard400]

1. GWS
2. Geelong
3. Sydney (Premiers)
4. Western Bulldogs
5. Adelaide
6. West Coast
7. Hawthorn
8. Melbourne
--------------------
9. St. Kilda
10. Fremantle
11. Collingwood
12. Gold Coast
13. Essendon
14. Richmond
15. North Melbourne
16. Port Adelaide
17. Carlton
18. Brisbane

Josh Kennedy (WCE) to win the Coleman Medal
Luke Parker to win the Brownlow Medal

 

[00Stinger]

Hickey had the better of Max both times last year, including getting the maximum 10 coaches votes in the 2nd game.

And Bernie Vince stitched up Pendelbury both times last year, getting BOG in one of those. Yet none of us think he is a better player.

Ill back Gawn in to beat Hickey one on one

Sent from my SM-P555 using Tapatalk

 

[Forever North]

Interesting year ahead, anything can happen. Would love to see a real changing of the guard, sick of the Hawthorn, Geelong, Sydney, West Coast mafia hogging the GF's. Can maybe see Hawks and Cats coming back a bit, but they'll probably prove me wrong. Melbourne to be the big improvers for me, they have a hard arse midfield now and Hogan might just explode. Everyone writing North off but I reckon we are better off now without the 'pensioners'. Apart from Harvey who was still contributing the rest were basically plodding along earning a pay cheque. And just for recreations sake to pass the time away I want the Pies and Tigers to be around the 2-6 mark after R8.

1 GWS
2 West Coast
3 Sydney
4 Western Bulldogs
5 Melbourne
6 Adelaide
7 North Melbourne
8 Hawthorn

9 Port Adelaide
10 Geelong
11 Essendon
12 Collingwood
13 St.Kilda
14 Gold Coast
15 Fremantle
16 Brisbane
17 Carlton
18 Richmond

GF. GWS V SYDNEY
Brownlow, Josh and Josh Kennedy to tie

 

[aussierulesrules]

And Bernie Vince stitched up Pendelbury both times last year, getting BOG in one of those. Yet none of us think he is a better player.

Ill back Gawn in to beat Hickey one on one

Well done at completely missing the point I was making.

I also bet you would have bet that Gawn would have had the better of Hickey in the 2nd match-up in particular last year as well, would you not?

 

[sante]

1. West Coast
2. GWS
3. Sydney
4. Hawthorn
5. St. Kilda
6. Adelaide
7. Western Bulldogs
8. Richmond

9. Melbourne
10. Geelong
11. Collingwood
12. Fremantle
13. Gold Coast
14. Essendon
15. North Melbourne
16. Port Adelaide
17. Brisbane
18. Carlton

 

[go you pups]

What has changed since last year?

Collingwood 2016
Centre Clearances - Averaged 11.8 per game/14th in the league.
Stoppage Clearances - Averaged 22.6 per game/14th in the league.

I would say a midfields ability to win clearances would be a decent stat to assess their effectiveness. How are they now rated #1 in the league?

Very surprising considering they have Grundy feeding them the ball too

 

[JaxsonB]

Yet another statistical simulation predicting a top 8 finish for Port Adelaide while 99% of pundits predicting a bottom 4 finish for us. Y'all are gonna look so silly!
http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/18912776/

As someone that loves stats like this, there's a big flaw to this kind of thing at the start of the season. Hell, the article mentions it themselves:

Pre-season Elo ratings really just reflect how good teams were last year, with an across-the-board adjustment to bring the good teams down to earth and lift the bad teams back up towards average.

Basically, there's a lot of potential issues with relying on this sort of thing too heavily at the start of a season. Generally want to wait a month or two before it really starts getting into line with how teams are performing now, rather than last year. To easily see the issue - Fremantle last year. Sure, the stats would have predicted they probably wouldn't have made top 4 given that, as I said during the finals of 2015, they were statistically the worst performing minor premier since 2000 (based on PF, PA and percentage), but I doubt any statistical analysis would have predicted they'd fall so much that they'd lose their opening five games.

Personally? I see them (Port) at best fighting for the bottom part of the top 8. Haven't been following them super-closely in the off-season, but have they really done much to improve their chances since last year?

 

[JaxsonB]

Personally, not going to list teams by exact position. When one game can potentially mean the difference between first and fourth, I prefer to make general predictions.

Top 4:
GWS
Sydney
West Coast
Bulldogs

5 through 8:
Adelaide
Geelong
Hawthorn
Gold Coast

Bottom 4:
Brisbane
North
Freo
Richmond

The rest:
The other teams, obviously.

I will say, there should be fierce competition for those 5 through 8 spots. Very fierce. Melbourne and St Kilda are at that stage where, if a few close games go their way, they could pinch one of the spots. Collingwood and Richmond are in similar positions, and Essendon is the great unknown that could come back with a lot to prove this year. And yes, I know I listed Richmond in my bottom 4 and are now saying they could make the 8 - my biggest issue with Richmond is that I'm not convinced of the club's culture, and someone has to make the bottom 4!

 

[JaxsonB]

I think the additions of Fyfe, Sandilands, Hamling, Hill and McCarthy might see us go a little better this year - but I'm probably just biased.

And yeah, it shows. Probs best if you do a quick Google search or something next time you try and talk about a team you're completely unfamiliar with

I was talking about Port. That was clear, wasn't it? That whole response was to a Port supporter. XD

I can see the confusion given that it followed my paragraph where I used Fremantle as an example of when pre-season statistical trends can come undone, so I edited it slightly to make it clearer. ^^

 

[Righteo]

I was talking about Port. That was clear, wasn't it? That whole response was to a Port supporter. XD

I can see the confusion given that it followed my paragraph where I used Fremantle as an example of when pre-season statistical trends can come undone, so I edited it slightly to make it clearer. ^^

My bad, will delete my post.

 

[smasha]

Interesting year ahead, anything can happen. Would love to see a real changing of the guard, sick of the Hawthorn, Geelong, Sydney, West Coast mafia hogging the GF's. Can maybe see Hawks and Cats coming back a bit, but they'll probably prove me wrong. Melbourne to be the big improvers for me, they have a hard arse midfield now and Hogan might just explode. Everyone writing North off but I reckon we are better off now without the 'pensioners'. Apart from Harvey who was still contributing the rest were basically plodding along earning a pay cheque. And just for recreations sake to pass the time away I want the Pies and Tigers to be around the 2-6 mark after R8.

1 GWS
2 West Coast
3 Sydney
4 Western Bulldogs
5 Melbourne
6 Adelaide
7 North Melbourne
8 Hawthorn

9 Port Adelaide
10 Geelong
11 Essendon
12 Collingwood
13 St.Kilda
14 Gold Coast
15 Fremantle
16 Brisbane
17 Carlton
18 Richmond

GF. GWS V SYDNEY
Brownlow, Josh and Josh Kennedy to tie

Want a changing of the guard yet still put Richmond on the bottom of the ladder.
My hashtag.

 

[drazah]

Basically, there's a lot of potential issues with relying on this sort of thing too heavily at the start of a season. Generally want to wait a month or two before it really starts getting into line with how teams are performing now, rather than last year. To easily see the issue - Fremantle last year. Sure, the stats would have predicted they probably wouldn't have made top 4 given that, as I said during the finals of 2015, they were statistically the worst performing minor premier since 2000 (based on PF, PA and percentage), but I doubt any statistical analysis would have predicted they'd fall so much that they'd lose their opening five games./QUOTE]

Oh I know. But it's interesting that two statistical models have us in the top 8, and yet not one of hundreds of posters here have us in the top 8.

 

[marty36]

Oh I know. But it's interesting that two statistical models have us in the top 8, and yet not one of hundreds of posters here have us in the top 8.

It appears you are going into round 1 with 3 debutants two of which were rookies, when you are predicting you look at unusual things like this and add that too your existing squad and they could perform but percentages say they will struggle

 

[drazah]

It appears you are going into round 1 with 3 debutants two of which were rookies, when you are predicting you look at unusual things like this and add that too your existing squad and they could perform but percentages say they will struggle

Well I'm sorry my club is awesome at drafting.

 

[marty36]

Well I'm sorry my club is awesome at drafting.

They could be, or they may turn out to be flops and you finish bottom eight, time will tell on that

 

[Papa G]

It appears you are going into round 1 with 3 debutants two of which were rookies, when you are predicting you look at unusual things like this and add that too your existing squad and they could perform but percentages say they will struggle

Why are you so repetitive? Why are you so repetitive? I bet you're a very good driver.

 

[marty36]

Why are you so repetitive? Why are you so repetitive? I bet you're a very good driver.

Im a fantastic driver, just depends if im in the car or bike, bike goes a little too fast though

 

[drazah]

LADDER PREDICTOR IS LIVE, FOLKS!

http://www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor

 

[Gunstall555]

My completely unbiased ladder prediction (ok slightly Hawthorn bias). I didn't realise how tough the draw is for Geelong and St Kilda. Don't see Essendon winning a game this year.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

My completely unbiased ladder prediction (ok slightly Hawthorn bias). I didn't realise how tough the draw is for Geelong and St Kilda. Don't see Essendon winning a game this year.

View attachment 347897

Taking the piss?

 

[wolfpup]

here you go, flicked through all games with obvious saints bias and wanting hawks near the bottom because draft picks

no idea how pies made the 8 and no idea why geelong is so low

 

[Dez!]

View attachment 347907
here you go, flicked through all games with obvious saints bias and wanting hawks near the bottom because draft picks

We should be higher.

 

[Gunstall555]

Taking the piss?

Nope, I believe they have the worst list in the AFL (they have some good young talent but so did GWS in it's first few years). In a couple of years when Parish, Langford, McGrath etc start to develop, then I'd expect to see Essendon improve rapidly.

 

[Gunstall555]

View attachment 347907
here you go, flicked through all games with obvious saints bias and wanting hawks near the bottom because draft picks

no idea how pies made the 8 and no idea why geelong is so low

Geelong are low because their draw is awful. Every time I did it and thought oh they are the home team I can tip them, they draw a team like Adelaide or the Doggies.

 

[smasha]

Geelong are low because their draw is awful. Every time I did it and thought oh they are the home team I can tip them, they draw a team like Adelaide or the Doggies.

But Richmond always get shafted to Skilled Stadium.
Geelong need a gifted win.