I am not speculating. I am just speaking hypothetically. No one knows which way it goes. I believe that they are 50% luck.
To me it seems like luck, trying to predict how a 17yo kid will be playing in 5+ years. But no doubt there's an art to the best recruiters' work.
Pretty obvious they are going to struggle in the short term, but think it will be five years before anyone can say it's failed. No choice now but to forge ahead, push up from the bottom with more quality from the draft, resist the urge to short-cut. The question for now is, do they have the best coach to oversee it? Are the kids developing to their potential?
The 66-game rebuild touted in 2015 was a bit of a furphy. They're going to need more time.