Prediction Geelong's fortunes for season 2019

[Spazz Cat]

Many would undoubtedly agree with you.

But, starting with last year's GF participants, I see they both have more upside than the Tigers based on the players they had missing through finals last year (even accounting for the inclusion of Lynch at Punt Rd).

And the Dees should still have plenty of improvement in them as well.

So, without even considering other teams who may well jump up, that's three of last year's contenders that I think are just as well placed as the Tiges to get to the big dance in 2019.

Even if the comp isn't that 'even' overall, I think the race at the top could be very close this year.

Yep. But that's what makes those home games and finals all that more important.
They get so much energy off the crowd.
I don't think that should be underestimated.

 

[Spazz Cat]

Exactly my point, really. Even visually impaired Frederick can see that we're more likely than not to be shifting down the ladder soon enough.

But surely these projected rankings can be based on nothing more than that sense of 'gut feel' trajectory of a list. Which, as I said earlier, would have meant that the Dogs (8th in '15 before the 2016 win), Tigers (13th in '16) and the Weagles (6th in '17) could not have been likely to appear in the top 'projected' clubs for their premiership years.

The whole idea seems like a great deal of supposition and 'intuition' without much basis in fact to come up with a 'best guess'. My point is simply that, with so much data unknown and so many changes still to come at every club involved, it's little more than a 'vibe' that they're working from to publish their table.

So if they start terming it the 'Dennis Denuto' three-year projected ranking, I think that might better communicate the basis of the judgements made.

Yeah but they've got to say something if they're doing a rankings table.
Even though we know it's dubious they can't just say for every team "I dunno"

 

[goyoucatters]

Yep. But that's what makes those home games and finals all that more important.
They get so much energy off the crowd.
I don't think that should be underestimated.

Two of the teams I named as their key opponents in '19 also play home games at the same ground. And will bring plenty of their own supporters to any match-up in finals.

And the other one came over from W.A. and silenced a rampant and rabid Pies horde after conceding a five-goal start in the GF.

I think the crowd factor was huge in the '17 finals series. After all, look at who they played.

I'm just not convinced it's going to make such a great difference for them now.

 

[goyoucatters]

Yeah but they've got to say something if they're doing a rankings table.
Even though we know it's dubious they can't just say for every team "I dunno"

Which was my contention at the start. They've only come up with this specious analysis of lists three years down the track to satisfy the insatiable desire of many in the media (and some fans, I know) to provide more data on footy.

But when it's as subjective and ephemeral as these rankings will prove to be, I just don't see the point.

 

[Spazz Cat]

Two of the teams I named as their key opponents in '19 also play home games at the same ground. And will bring plenty of their own supporters to any match-up in finals.

And the other one came over from W.A. and silenced a rampant and rabid Pies horde after conceding a five-goal start in the GF.

I think the crowd factor was huge in the '17 finals series. After all, look at who they played. Probs around 13-14 games at the G this season.

I'm just not convinced it's going to make such a great difference for them now.

Yeah, gotta agree to disagree though. Still made the prelim.
Will be up there to have another shot next year.

 

[Spazz Cat]

Which was my contention at the start. They've only come up with this specious analysis of lists three years down the track to satisfy the insatiable desire of many in the media (and some fans, I know) to provide more data on footy.

But when it's as subjective and ephemeral as these rankings will prove to be, I just don't see the point.

Yeah it's stupid, I do agree. But if someone's given a job to do it they've gotta put every team somewhere. Even the person doing it probably doesn't give a s**t.

 

[goyoucatters]

Yeah, gotta agree to disagree though. Still made the prelim.
Will be up there to have another shot next year.

Don't dispute that at all.

I was simply answering your assertion that a lot would have to go wrong for them to miss the GF.

Put simply, I don't think a lot went wrong for them this year. And they were basically never in the hunt in their PF. With some improvement in their nearest rivals in '18 still on the cards as well, I believe.

 

[Vdubs]

Not at our level in that respect.

We're 8 from 9 in odd years over our VFL/AFL history.

They're 6 from 11 in odd years.

You should post more often.

 

[Vdubs]

So we recruited him for depth.

Hardly got a game with Swans in the second half of 2018.
Time will tell.
I like his pace.

 

[goyoucatters]

You should post more often.

I do enjoy posting here when I have the time.

But the best part of the board for me is learning from the insights of others and sharing in a mutual and heartfelt passion for the hoops.

And given your footy nous, your almost legendary pursuit of objectivity for your viewpoints on the game and your long history following our club, you're one of those posters I truly enjoy the most.

Stay classy, Dubs.

 

[Vdubs]

Most wouldnt actually... or didnt you read the article.
Youd better get used to him being on our best 22

I didn't actually.
If he's fit and raring to go, we will be better for it.
I'm definitely guilty of judging him on how he finished '18. Unfair.

 

[Cursed Cat]

Not at our level in that respect.

We're 8 from 9 in odd years over our VFL/AFL history.

They're 6 from 11 in odd years.

That's a tidy stat.

8 from 9 in odd years; with, I deduce, '89 being the odd year out?

1952 side apparently unique in other ways than being the only Geelong team to go back-to-back, too.

 

[Gavin Excell]

I thought we looked 'in' the EF last year for all of seven minutes or so. Then were routinely blown away by a team with no meaningful finals experience in almost the blink of an eye. I don't perceive that as demonstrably better than '17.

Barring Menz's moment of extreme selfishness late in the second quarter at the Adelaide Oval in '17, we could have gone to the main break under five goals down in that game as well. Which would have seemed as 'competitive' as we truly were for much of the game against the Dees. In truth, if the Demons kick straight in last year's EF, it's over as a contest and on the scoreboard much, much earlier.

In the end, I'm sure there are vagaries that suggest we were 'better' in last year's EF than in the '17 PF. For mine, both games were basically over at QT and that should be a massive source of consternation and embarrassment for the entire GFC.

1st quarter scores

2016 prelim v Sydney
0.5 v 7.3

2017 prelim v Adel
1.3 v 6.2

2018 elim v Melb
0.2 v 5.3

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Most would agree though that any time Rohan is in our best 22 it's because we have injuries to better players

Rohan's in our best 22 with injuries or no injuries.

 

[you pick one]

Rohan's in our best 22 with injuries or no injuries.

Jury's out for me on Rohan I'm not convinced he's even an up grade on Murdoch yet.He's a less than 10 possessions a game player and that has been consistent over his Career, the body is a bit suspect as well.Why the big wrap?convince me I'm wrong.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Jury's out for me on Rohan I'm not convinced he's even an up grade on Murdoch yet.He's a less than 10 possessions a game player and that has been consistent over his Career, the body is a bit suspect as well.Why the big wrap?convince me I'm wrong.

One of our teams major weaknesses is a lack of speed and pressure. Rohan brings both. He's also an exceptional user of the ball. He can take a mark, he tackles with 110% intent and he has breakaway speed with the ability to break the lines. All the things we're screaming out for. At Sydney he was used in the wrong role in a Buddy centric forwardline. Buddy is one of the most selfish players I've ever seen play the game which also didn't help Rohan's cause.

 

[goyoucatters]

That's a tidy stat.

8 from 9 in odd years; with, I deduce, '89 being the odd year out?

1952 side apparently unique in other ways than being the only Geelong team to go back-to-back, too.

This is simply a record of the years we've won the flag. 8 of our 9 times were in odd years.

So, as you noted, '52 is the odd year out.

 

[Ratcat]

One of our teams major weaknesses is a lack of speed and pressure. Rohan brings both. He's also an exceptional user of the ball. He can take a mark, he tackles with 110% intent and he has breakaway speed with the ability to break the lines. All the things we're screaming out for. At Sydney he was used in the wrong role in a Buddy centric forwardline. Buddy is one of the most selfish players I've ever seen play the game which also didn't help Rohan's cause.

How can you make grand statments like this you haven't seen him play a game for us yet.
Sydney aren't crying over his departure, l suggest you need to wait and see.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

How can you make grand statments like this you haven't seen him play a game for us yet.
Sydney aren't crying over his departure, l suggest you need to wait and see.

What part of my post was outlandish or false?

 

[Ratcat]

What part of my post was outlandish or false?

All the superlatives, from all reports he was a big flop in Sydney or maybe you know something others don't.
For me he's a big wait and see.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

All the superlatives, from all reports he was a big flop in Sydney or maybe you know something others don't.
For me he's a big wait and see.

Nothing I said about Rohan in that post was a false statement regardless of your views about his ability.

 

[Turbocat]

All the superlatives, from all reports he was a big flop in Sydney or maybe you know something others don't.
For me he's a big wait and see.

I guess that depends on how you define success of a drafted player.. If we had picked him at P6 in the draft I could imagine that we would all agree he had underachieved ... because he had not become a player in top handful in the side..as I guess all would hope from a player drafted that early.. yet he alwasy presented as a moments type player. He has played over 100 games.. and as we have previous said only a very small number of players make that number..

 

[Max Milburn]

1st quarter scores

2016 prelim v Sydney
0.5 v 7.3

2017 prelim v Adel
1.3 v 6.2

2018 elim v Melb
0.2 v 5.3

Thanks for the reminder

 

[Gavin Excell]

Thanks for the reminder

Its a reminder of how simply uncompetitive we have been in recent finals

 

[you pick one]

One of our teams major weaknesses is a lack of speed and pressure. Rohan brings both. He's also an exceptional user of the ball. He can take a mark, he tackles with 110% intent and he has breakaway speed with the ability to break the lines. All the things we're screaming out for. At Sydney he was used in the wrong role in a Buddy centric forwardline. Buddy is one of the most selfish players I've ever seen play the game which also didn't help Rohan's cause.

All true but hasn't done it consistently enough in the past,his raw figures make Kersten look like a Brownlow Medalist in his last season with us.
I don't have Rohan as a lock going into this season.