Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[Spook]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see an injury crisis hit hawthorn next year with the amount players on the list now who have had serious injuries in the past, and a lot of older players.

They’ve also lost a couple of key fitness staff in the last two years.

Definitely in a risky position.

Yep, good point. Losing the staff not the players is the bigger risk imo.

Then again Rich, GWS and pies had a terrible year for injuries and still did OK. Good teams absord injuries.

Injury ladder: Who's hit hardest? Who's defying the odds?

Champion Data has crunched the numbers to reveal which club's injury list is really hurting the most

www.afl.com.au

 

[Mitchell Madness]

Yep, good point. Losing the staff not the players is the bigger risk imo.

Then again Rich, GWS and pies had a terrible year for injuries and still did OK. Good teams absurd injuries.

Injury ladder: Who's hit hardest? Who's defying the odds?

Champion Data has crunched the numbers to reveal which club's injury list is really hurting the most

www.afl.com.au

Pies and richmond were hit early. Much easier to tread water then, rather than late in the season (happened to hawks in each of the 3peats)

 

[Spook]

Pies and richmond were hit early. Much easier to tread water then, rather than late in the season (happened to hawks in each of the 3peats)

Pies were hit late as well. Have a look at their injury list rd 20

The full AFL injury list: round 20

Who has been ruled out and who is in doubt at your club?

www.afl.com.au

 

[Pessimistic]

So what were Melbourne complaining about? Note they figure heavily early in this thread

 

[KermitJagger]

Worpel looks an absolute ripper and Bruest has been pure gold, but most teams can boast a couple. Have the Hawks actually been significantly more successful with late picks than other clubs?

I would say somewhat more successful. Despite having significantly fewer top end picks than most, we've had more Rising Star nominations than the following clubs since 2016; Bombers, Dogs, Cats, Dockers, Eagles, Roos, Saints, Demons, Giants, Magpies, Suns and Crows.

 

[LRobbo]

27?
Wingard is icing. Hawthorn need cake. And if he was the only one I wouldn’t see it as an issue.

Never seem to need a cake against your mob though, every year it’s a banked 4 points

 

[sr36]

Never seem to need a cake against your mob though, every year it’s a banked 4 points

It's a shame for you that it's an 18 team comp.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

I would say somewhat more successful. Despite having significantly fewer top end picks than most, we've had more Rising Star nominations than the following clubs since 2016; Bombers, Dogs, Cats, Dockers, Eagles, Roos, Saints, Demons, Giants, Magpies, Suns and Crows.

Um...is that legit?

We have more elite young talent than 12 other clubs - including Cats, Dogs, Eagles, Giants, Pies?

End thread right there.

 

[Pessimistic]

Yes those other clubs are annoying
Collingwood--grand final opponent--Hawthorn
won 1 lost 5------CARLTON----------Won 1 lost 1
won 2 lost 0-----ESSENDON--------Won 1 lost 2
won 2 lost 2------GEELONG---------Won 2 lost 1
won 1 lost 4------MELBOURNE------Won 1 lost 0
won 0 lost 1-----NORTH MELB------Won 2 lost 1
Won 0 lost 1------ST KILDA---------Won 1 lost 0
won 0 lost 1---SOUTH/SYDNEY-----Won 1 lost 1
won 0 lost 1---WEST COAST--------Won 2 lost 0

won 11 lost 7 (others) won 2 lost 0

 

[Scotland]

I would say somewhat more successful. Despite having significantly fewer top end picks than most, we've had more Rising Star nominations than the following clubs since 2016; Bombers, Dogs, Cats, Dockers, Eagles, Roos, Saints, Demons, Giants, Magpies, Suns and Crows.

That includes Burton who is gone. I don't think it's a big win to have 5 Rising Star nominees (2016-2019) on your list when a whole bunch of teams also have 5, some of which have been consistent finalists. If Rising Star noms are the metric then look out for Sydney who have 7 including one winner. Weirdly Melbourne had 4 in one year then none the next 3.

In the final voting of those years Hawthorn have no one, Burton 2nd (gone), no one, no one. Sydney have had players feature in the final voting each year. It's not an exact measure, though. We are in a similar boat to Hawthorn, 5 noms in 4 years. Tom Cole was one of those and no one cares. We also had just Oscar Allen feature in the final voting this year with 1 vote.

 

[Pessimistic]

I daresay hawthorn would love the access to talent sydney have had over th years.

How exactly do people reccommend hawthorn get on the sydney gravy train?

 

[sr36]

Um...is that legit?

We have more elite young talent than 12 other clubs - including Cats, Dogs, Eagles, Giants, Pies?

End thread right there.

Before readying the trophy cabinet, you may want to look at historical lists of rising star nominations and how many of them make it. You also may want to look at whether there are any correlations between rising star nominations and a club's future success.

 

[Scotland]

I daresay hawthorn would love the access to talent sydney have had over th years.

How exactly do people reccommend hawthorn get on the sydney gravy train?

Trade for their former F/S first round picks when they are out of contract?

 

[Scotland]

Before readying the trophy cabinet, you may want to look at historical lists of rising star nominations and how many of them make it. You also may want to look at whether there are any correlations between rising star nominations and a club's future success.

It has some merit but is also a bit of a right time, right place thing.

If you were consistently getting fewer nominations than the league average it would be a worry, but it's pretty even. Last year 14 teams earned a nomination, the year before 15. It's not like the NBA All Rookie team where last year's starting 5 were the first 5 players picked in the previous draft.

Sometimes you get a Walsh who is a gun at 18, sometimes you get a Tom Cole who is 21 by the time they are nominated and not actually that great. Sometimes you get a Willie Rioli who debuts at 22, or a Clayton Oliver who dominates as a 20 year old but played 3 too many games the year prior.

 

[Gavin Excell]

It has some merit but is also a bit of a right time, right place thing.

If you were consistently getting fewer nominations than the league average it would be a worry, but it's pretty even. Last year 14 teams earned a nomination, the year before 15. It's not like the NBA All Rookie team where last year's starting 5 were the first 5 players picked in the previous draft.

Sometimes you get a Walsh who is a gun at 18, sometimes you get a Tom Cole who is 21 by the time they are nominated and not actually that great. Sometimes you get a Willie Rioli who debuts at 22, or a Clayton Oliver who dominates as a 20 year old but played 3 too many games the year prior.

Clayton Oliver played 3 too many games?
Right

 

[Randy Campbell]

If no two people are the same, how can draft picks be?

 

[Scotland]

Clayton Oliver played 3 too many games?
Right

13 games 2016, nominated but obviously didn't win. Ineligible 2017.

 

[Gavin Excell]

13 games 2016, nominated but obviously didn't win. Ineligible 2017.

Sorry understand now
Thought you were saying Melbourne erred in his development by playing him 3 extra games

 

[hawkman]

It has some merit but is also a bit of a right time, right place thing.

If you were consistently getting fewer nominations than the league average it would be a worry, but it's pretty even. Last year 14 teams earned a nomination, the year before 15. It's not like the NBA All Rookie team where last year's starting 5 were the first 5 players picked in the previous draft.

Sometimes you get a Walsh who is a gun at 18, sometimes you get a Tom Cole who is 21 by the time they are nominated and not actually that great. Sometimes you get a Willie Rioli who debuts at 22, or a Clayton Oliver who dominates as a 20 year old but played 3 too many games the year prior.

Or Worpel who played 1 game too many

 

[Scotland]

For some reason I thought Worpel played more than that last year. But yep he would've finished top 3 this year.

 

[Spook]

Trade for their former F/S first round picks when they are out of contract?

Yep, And that’s what we’ve done a lot of. But many on here argue it’s not the way to go.

 

[Scotland]

Yep, And that’s what we’ve done a lot of. But many on here argue it’s not the way to go.

1. Outlay vs output.
2. Salary cap.
3. Age profile.

All teams must manage these 3 considerations. If it was possible to add a Lynch, Dangerfield, Kelly - whoever - each year, then teams would.

 

[sr36]

It has some merit but is also a bit of a right time, right place thing.

If you were consistently getting fewer nominations than the league average it would be a worry, but it's pretty even. Last year 14 teams earned a nomination, the year before 15. It's not like the NBA All Rookie team where last year's starting 5 were the first 5 players picked in the previous draft.

Sometimes you get a Walsh who is a gun at 18, sometimes you get a Tom Cole who is 21 by the time they are nominated and not actually that great. Sometimes you get a Willie Rioli who debuts at 22, or a Clayton Oliver who dominates as a 20 year old but played 3 too many games the year prior.

Some very ordinary footballers get nominated. A rising star nomination tops the most meaningless accolades in footy in my book.

And as a measure of a teams young talent and likelihood of futre success, without looking at data, I'd be willing to bet that the perennial cellar dwelling clubs figure really highly in a list of most nominations.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Some very ordinary footballers get nominated. A rising star nomination tops the most meaningless accolades in footy in my book.

And as a measure of a teams young talent and likelihood of futre success, without looking at data, I'd be willing to bet that the perennial cellar dwelling clubs figure really highly in a list of most nominations.

On a par with Anzac Day medallists

 

[sr36]

On a par with Anzac Day medallists

Im not disputing that.

One of the Pies most decorated, all time greats, Mark Mcgough, may have picked up the double in one outing.