Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

Simon_Nesbit

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Before readying the trophy cabinet, you may want to look at historical lists of rising star nominations and how many of them make it. You also may want to look at whether there are any correlations between rising star nominations and a club's future success.
That would require far more effort and thought than at least 90% of the posts in here (both sides).

Though I must say the level of discussion has improved remarkably in the last few days. Not necessarily the content (I still think Hawks > top-4 in 2020), but far more reason to be had.
 

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sr36

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That would require far more effort and thought than at least 90% of the posts in here (both sides).

Though I must say the level of discussion has improved remarkably in the last few days. Not necessarily the content (I still think Hawks > top-4 in 2020), but far more reason to be had.
If everything goes right, you guys could be back up there as early as next year. You've traded to be stocked with talented guys in a similar age bracket - If JOM, Wingard, Mitchell, Scully, Patton, Henderson get their bodies right and gel. If those quality guys who are still around from the halcyon years - Bruest, Gunston, Smith, Stratton remain good. If your newer quality continues their upward trajectory - Worpel, Sicilly. If that young full forward and a couple of others kick on... Add in an awesome coach. Definite potential to be very very good. But it's a heap of ifs. And the more likely 'if' is that a few of these things work out and a few fail, leaving you in the middle of the pack for the next few years, with an aging list that will need to be totally rebuilt in 3 years time.
 

Luv_our_club

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If everything goes right, you guys could be back up there as early as next year. You've traded to be stocked with talented guys in a similar age bracket - If JOM, Wingard, Mitchell, Scully, Patton, Henderson get their bodies right and gel. If those quality guys who are still around from the halcyon years - Bruest, Gunston, Smith, Stratton remain good. If your newer quality continues their upward trajectory - Worpel, Sicilly. If that young full forward and a couple of others kick on... Add in an awesome coach. Definite potential to be very very good. But it's a heap of ifs. And the more likely 'if' is that a few of these things work out and a few fail, leaving you in the middle of the pack for the next few years, with an aging list that will need to be totally rebuilt in 3 years time.
I think you are right about the "ifs" on our season in 2020.


But i don't agree our list is ageing out. Who? Burgoyne? Frawley? We are not really that driven by an ageing crew anymore...

In 2018 we made top 4 on the back of our aging stars. But in 2019 our best performances were driven by the young-mid age-players.
 

sr36

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I think you are right about the "ifs" on our season in 2020.


But i don't agree our list is ageing out. Who? Burgoyne? Frawley? We are not really that driven by an ageing crew anymore...

In 2018 we made top 4 on the back of our aging stars. But in 2019 our best performances were driven by the young-mid age-players.
With the aging, I'm talking about: if you are middle of the road in 3 years time, and I think you will be. The guys you have brought in who are 26 year olds now will be getting on. Gunston, Bruest and any other remnants of your great teams will be at the end. You appear to be hell bent on this current strategy of loading up on blokes of that age group, so I wouldn't be surprised if you add a free agent or two in the next couple of years as well. If things go right it will be seen as a brilliant move, but it's a high risk strategy that could, and I think is most likely to, go horribly wrong, when in 3 years time you're middle of the road with an aging list.
 

Pessimistic

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Not getting mitchell omeara etc would have meant that now hawks would have a clear bottom four midfield. It really cant be faulted.
When you consider in the threepeat hodge burgoyne and sam mitchell were already 28-30 i think the calls the current core will drop off in three years time is a little pessimistic
 

Ambrosia

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Is Patton even best 22 at the Hawks next year? Don’t see how you can play him and 2 rucks in the same side given his inability to apply defensive pressure.
 

Elite Master

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Is Patton even best 22 at the Hawks next year? Don’t see how you can play him and 2 rucks in the same side given his inability to apply defensive pressure.
. He will provide competition and cover for Lewis, but surely Hawthorn prioritise Lewis in front of a fragile Patton if push comes to shove.
 

sr36

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Not getting mitchell omeara etc would have meant that now hawks would have a clear bottom four midfield. It really cant be faulted.
When you consider in the threepeat hodge burgoyne and sam mitchell were already 28-30 i think the calls the current core will drop off in three years time is a little pessimistic
Good point. OK, I've come around to the painful idea that it isn't necessarily doom and gloom for the Hawks and this could work. I still think it's bloody high risk though and I don't want the Pies to go down this road when we drop back down to the middle of the ladder.
 

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BJK#5

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Good point. OK, I've come around to the painful idea that it isn't necessarily doom and gloom for the Hawks and this could work. I still think it's bloody high risk though and I don't want the Pies to go down this road when we drop back down to the middle of the ladder.
I agree with a lot of what you have said in this thread my only counterpoint would be isn't just blowing the list up and going full rebuild just as risky? We have seen countless teams become perennial cellar dewllers because of how hard it is to rebuild from the bottom. Nailing draft picks is not easy and attracting players when down the bottom is tough as well.

Rebuilding no matter what model you go is bloody tough and i think it is times for teams to experiment a little more and try and find ways around just becoming shit until you can nail some Drafts.
 

Pessimistic

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Our woes a re a finction of the threepeat and having the oldest premiership team ever in 2015. could be why most of us hawks are OK with that.

but on your theme, being destined form a long period of fringes of the 8 is preferable to long periods on the bottom. which can happen quite asily too
 

Pessimistic

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I agree with a lot of what you have said in this thread my only counterpoint would be isn't just blowing the list up and going full rebuild just as risky? We have seen countless teams become perennial cellar dewllers because of how hard it is to rebuild from the bottom. Nailing draft picks is not easy and attracting players when down the bottom is tough as well.

Rebuilding no matter what model you go is bloody tough and i think it is times for teams to experiment a little more and try and find ways around just becoming shit until you can nail some Drafts.
the pardigm seems to be instead of just feeding in recruits in the 18-20 age group, continuing to do that and feeding in equal numbers in 24-28 too. the avreage age stays more constantly higher, rather than varying more.

the full rebuild paradignm was to rebuild like mad with draftees, then add matures when you believe you are in the window. It was universally supported in the recent past but clubs are less enamoured with that.
I really do wonder if it worked well for clubs coincidentally rebuilding during the 2001 draft, and not so much since. in fact gold coast was a complete bust. loading up in one draft. GWS has fared much better abut they spread the recruitment over two drafts

This includes the 2011 draft, and Ironically we see hawks now have number 1 pick, number 6 pick, number 1 rookie draft a father-son and omeara from the 17YO draft.
 
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Holy Rioli

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Worpel looks an absolute ripper and Bruest has been pure gold, but most teams can boast a couple. Have the Hawks actually been significantly more successful with late picks than other clubs?
Sicily (56)
Hardwick (43)
M Lewis (77) are just some others in recent years along with Worpel off the top of my head where we've done ok later in the draft.
 

Spook

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. He will provide competition and cover for Lewis, but surely Hawthorn prioritise Lewis in front of a fragile Patton if push comes to shove.
Do you consider that every player who has had long term injuries as “fragile”. If you’ve forgotten what Patton is capable after 2 serious knee injuries just go and have a look at his 2016 & 2017 seasons and his prelim finals performance. Yes he’s now done his other knee but if he’s come back strong and performed before why would you not expect the same again.
Should we consider Rance “fragile” coming back in after his knee injury? What about Tom Mitchell? Lots of good players have serious injuries, it’s just part of the game.
 

WWSD

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With the aging, I'm talking about: if you are middle of the road in 3 years time, and I think you will be. The guys you have brought in who are 26 year olds now will be getting on. Gunston, Bruest and any other remnants of your great teams will be at the end. You appear to be hell bent on this current strategy of loading up on blokes of that age group, so I wouldn't be surprised if you add a free agent or two in the next couple of years as well. If things go right it will be seen as a brilliant move, but it's a high risk strategy that could, and I think is most likely to, go horribly wrong, when in 3 years time you're middle of the road with an aging list.
Hawthorn why you have no youth?!

Finn Maginness and Conor Downie say. :$:thumbsu:
 

matey

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Looking forward to Walker, Ross and Jones debuting next season taken at 63, 71 and rookie draft selection no 7 respectively. They have been serving their apprenticeships well and showing big improvement under the Hawthorn system.

Depth is starting to build again to challenge for the next piece of silverware. Straight after the glorious three peat! So quick ..... with no elite draft picks 😂
 

sr36

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I agree with a lot of what you have said in this thread my only counterpoint would be isn't just blowing the list up and going full rebuild just as risky? We have seen countless teams become perennial cellar dewllers because of how hard it is to rebuild from the bottom. Nailing draft picks is not easy and attracting players when down the bottom is tough as well.

Rebuilding no matter what model you go is bloody tough and i think it is times for teams to experiment a little more and try and find ways around just becoming shit until you can nail some Drafts.
You're right. To have a run at the top, you need to have a group of blokes of a similar age. Then to maximise your chances of staying at the top and winning flags you need to top up with more blokes in that bracket - the win now when you're in your window theory. Hawthorn did it magnificently. When those blokes get too old, you're stuffed for a while and need to rebuild. The AFL's equalisation measures ensure that top clubs are placed in a precarious position in the future. Good on the Hawks for attempting a really quick aggressive rebuild. And I do think they are right that you get better value at the trade table than in the draft.

The problem I think with what the Hawks are attempting is that it is really risky and if the risk succeeds, the window will be really short, as I suspect any success will be a few years away due to the need for their recruits to build cohesion. Whereas those who succeed through taking the risk of rebuilding through youth, will have a much longer window and are thus more likely to succeed.

I personally think that future pick trading can enable top teams a chance to continually refresh by trading out of one draft in order to bank picks for the nxt draft and trade up in the next draft or have a heap of chips to trade in young talent. That's how I'd like to see the Pis go, rather than trading in guys like Beams. But it runs the risk of us not going hard enough for the flag now and remaining a regular bridesmaid.
 

Fluro Boots

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Sicily (56)
Hardwick (43)
M Lewis (77) are just some others in recent years along with Worpel off the top of my head where we've done ok later in the draft.

Stratton, Puopolo and Duryea are are also examples of players picked up later in drafts that turned into good or very good players. I still have hope for Harry Morrison as well. Trading early picks really burns you if you don't use the later picks well.
 

Marcel Proust

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Oh man, is there some mindboggling desperation, clutching at straws and Hawthorn Derangement Syndrome going on in this thread. We were hearing EXACTLY the some stuff in ‘09. And how did that work out for the HDS sufferers?
The age demographic of the list is radically different to then

Hawthorn had 3 players aged +26 as opposed to dads army now. Also had a bunch of elite young draft talent

Who gets the number one key defender now Patton or Lewis? Gunston to freewheel.

Frawley and Frost take the number one and two best key forwards respectively.

Thereby Sicily now plays the Gibson role and no longer has to worry about playing on the opposition key forwards anymore.

Mitchell makes those around him better like Worpel, O’Meara and Shiels.

The elite outside run coming from Smith, Henderson and Scully.

McEvoy and Ceglar are just about the best ruck duo going around.

Burgoyne and Wingard add the finishing touches.

#hawthornproblems
This isn't as intimidating as you might think and has a bit of an old feel to it.

I am not convinced Hawks will be able to match it with GWS, WCE, Geelong, Collingwood etc.
 

matey

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I want to thank all those BF experts in this thread highlighting the dads army group on the Hawks list. It reinforces my belief in what Clarko is doing. Hawks improvement in the last couple of months of the year was on the back of its younger/middle aged players. Once the golden oldies hang up the boots in the next 1-2 years and are replaced with other younger players coming up through the ranks ...... checkmate Clarko. You can’t have it both ways. It’s not going to happen overnight after winning 3 in a row but it’s not going to happen like a Richmond where it takes FOUR decades.
 

juss

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Who gets the number one key defender now Patton or Lewis? Gunston to freewheel.

Frawley and Frost take the number one and two best key forwards respectively.

Thereby Sicily now plays the Gibson role and no longer has to worry about playing on the opposition key forwards anymore.

Mitchell makes those around him better like Worpel, O’Meara and Shiels.

The elite outside run coming from Smith, Henderson and Scully.

McEvoy and Ceglar are just about the best ruck duo going around.

Burgoyne and Wingard add the finishing touches.

#hawthornproblems
This is probably the textbook example of bigfooty and a supporter just listing their teams players and assuming they are good without considering the competition they'd be up against.

Nothing there is impressive as a unit relative to the actual good sides in the league.

Possibly the ruck duo is better than most, but its the least important area and recent successful sides have shown time and again, you don't need more than competitive players in that area.

Make no mistake the advantage/hope in Hawthorn is not its players. The players are a mid table team. The advantage is Clarkson is a great coach, and can possibly get more out of them.
 
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