Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

[Ah12]

Seems like a race in 2 possibly 3 or 4 if Lucan makes it in.

What are some predictions for odds each of the 4 favs will jump on the day.

Incentivise $2.20
Spanish Mission $6
Twilight payment $12
Sir lucan $15

 

[iluvparis]

Seems like a race in 2 possibly 3 or 4 if Lucan makes it in.

What are some predictions for odds each of the 4 favs will jump on the day.

Incentivise $2.20
Spanish Mission $6
Twilight payment $12
Sir lucan $15

Looks reasonable - maybe Spanish a touch shorter

 

[Mobythepom]

What are the chances that she runs you reckon? Think she should personally.

 

[iluvparis]

What are the chances that she runs you reckon? Think she should personally.

Seems like its a real 50:50 - if she was mine she would definitely run but trainer is a complete soft **** at times.

Second best (and only other) local chance if she does and I think she would challenge TP for third fave

 

[Mobythepom]

Seems like its a real 50:50 - if she was mine she would definitely run but trainer is a complete soft **** at times.

Second best (and only other) local chance if she does and I think she would challenge TP for third fave

Defo be well supported if given the go ahead. The Cup could do with her this year.

 

[Jugada]

Seems like a race in 2 possibly 3 or 4 if Lucan makes it in.

What are some predictions for odds each of the 4 favs will jump on the day.

Incentivise $2.20
Spanish Mission $6
Twilight payment $12
Sir lucan $15

Incent $2.40
Spanish Mission $5
Twilight $11
Sir L $20

I think one or two of the locals will slot in shorter than Sir L

 

[54Dogs]

Have the Euros had their final scans?

 

[iluvparis]

Have the Euros had their final scans?

I don't think so but RV's transparency through this whole process has obviously been world class

 

[toxic]

Twilight was so 2020 $$$$

If anything breathes on it in front it won't run top 5 in 2021

 

[Jugada]

Twilight was so 2020 $$$$

If anything breathes on it in front it won't run top 5 in 2021

Strange take given it will want a solid tempo

 

[iluvparis]

Strange take given it will want a solid tempo

Nah I tend to agree - I reckon last year was a bit of a fluke and can easily see it doing nothing this year

 

[iluvparis]

Today's betfair flucs would suggest that VE isn't running.

 

[Jugada]

Nah I tend to agree - I reckon last year was a bit of a fluke and can easily see it doing nothing this year

Please mate thats an awful call. Led them up and broke the field up from halfway and was dominant. Last couple runs have rated better than his lead in races last prep and this field is far worse. The weight and possibly getting a bit old are the handbrakes. A solid tempo is not.

 

[iluvparis]

Please mate thats an awful call. Led them up and broke the field up from halfway and was dominant. Last couple runs have rated better than his lead in races last prep and this field is far worse. The weight and possibly getting a bit old are the handbrakes. A solid tempo is not.

Yeah and the two runs before that were terrible - he is always one to mix his form. I'm not saying the tempo will get him beat - I'm just saying he is quite likely not to produce his best and could equally produce his 2019 run rather than his 2021 one. He is at rock bottom odds right now anyway as the spread between him and Spanish is basically the same as it was in the Gold Cup and he is a 9yo carrying top weight.

 

[HeathySure]

I dont know how a horse can fluke a race by magically running faster than its capable of

 

[iluvparis]

I dont know how a horse can fluke a race by magically running faster than its capable of

Mighty Boss/POP/VnD board

 

[dontlimitme]

I dont know how a horse can fluke a race by magically running faster than its capable of

ever seen kem the cat win a race, it's paradigm shifting

 

[HeathySure]

Mighty Boss/POP/VnD board

they ran up to their capabilities due to various factors. Twilight did something only one other horse has done in histroy and that was lead all the way

 

[Jugada]

Yeah and the two runs before that were terrible - he is always one to mix his form. I'm not saying the tempo will get him beat - I'm just saying he is quite likely not to produce his best and could equally produce his 2019 run rather than his 2021 one. He is at rock bottom odds right now anyway as the spread between him and Spanish is basically the same as it was in the Gold Cup and he is a 9yo carrying top weight.

They were shit and he looked to be gonzo but given he has bounced back to career high marks in his last 2 i put more weight into that than the previous 2 starts.

In 2019 he was running to about 110-111 leading in and produced that on the day. In 2020 he came here running to 115-116 and produced that to win. In 2021 he is coming in with runs producing 116+

The way the race has fallen apart even with top weight its hard to see him missing the first 4. But like i said going up in weight and age are the small negs, not the race being run at a solid tempo

 

[iluvparis]

they ran up to their capabilities due to various factors. Twilight did something only one other horse has done in histroy and that was lead all the way

You are arguing over semantics - I see last year was a fluke because I would be doubtful he can repeat the performance this year for the reasons mentioned above - you can use a different word if you like. The year before he led in a race that favoured on pacers and stopped as if shot.

 

[iluvparis]

They were sh*t and he looked to be gonzo but given he has bounced back to career high marks in his last 2 i put more weight into that than the previous 2 starts.

In 2019 he was running to about 110-111 leading in and produced that on the day. In 2020 he came here running to 115-116 and produced that to win. In 2021 he is coming in with runs producing 116+

The way the race has fallen apart even with top weight its hard to see him missing the first 4. But like i said going up in weight and age are the small negs, not the race being run at a solid tempo

Fair enough - you have more faith in his consistency than I do.

I think his last two starts form is actually hugely overrated and shows how weak those races wore (as evidenced by an Ebor winner taking it out - the rating is ludicrously high and solidly false to my eye). I'd be stunned if an 8yo was still making new career peaks especially coming off two very poor runs before that. And my record of finding fraudulent OS ratings (in both directions) when horses come to Australia is pretty damn good.

I've already said the tempo is not the issue for him so not sure why you keep carrying on about it. I just think he is highly unlikely to repeat last years mark.

If what you say is true you should be smashing him at the $15 on betfair right now as the weight wont stop him.

 

[Aussie Assault]

Pretty sure those Bendigo results mean Lucan is in? Unless they backflip on Forgot You's comments yesterday, and providing the Hotham winner is still paid up.

Others can and probably will still come out above him anyway.

 

[cruskits]

Amade - no top 3 in the Bendigo Cup….
Away He Goes - out
VE - outish

that leaves what 27 left and still a heap of scans to come back plus attrition…

iluvparis might be on here. Imagine not getting 24

 

[cruskits]

Pretty sure those Bendigo results mean Lucan is in? Unless they backflip on Forgot You's comments yesterday, and providing the Hotham winner is still paid up.

Others can and probably will still come out above him anyway.

He is a certainty….

 

[dontlimitme]

Amade - no top 3 in the Bendigo Cup….
Away He Goes - out
VE - outish

that leaves what 27 left and still a heap of scans to come back plus attrition…

iluvparis might be on here. Imagine not getting 24

by god that's kementaris music