Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

[iluvparis]

 

[the hypnotoad]

iluvparis - You are a flog. Your attitude and arrogance on this forum is why alot of members lurk. If someone has a different opinion to yours - you are like an arsonist, can of petrol in hand, in the middle of a National Park on a 45deg Summers day WITH a hot northerly blowing.

We all understand - the Sun shines outta your arse. But theres no need to goatse everyone here. Flog.

ha ... i noted the patronising tone in a couple of responses i got ... but it's no big deal
i've been following racing a long time, run into a lot of people like that, mostly in TABs and pubs, the only right or wrong "opinion" is when they cross the line ... and a lot of the big mouths are long gone by then
you back your own judgment, or not ...
this is the first time i've jumped on a racing thread on bf but i've seen some of the puffed up bragging and outright bollocks on comments sections on sites such as racenet what kind of delusionary nonsense gets posted
in this case, it's amusing to see a reference citing the history of the cup going back to the "90s/00s" ...

 

[iluvparis]

ha ... i noted the patronising tone in a couple of responses i got ... but it's no big deal
i've been following racing a long time, run into a lot of people like that, mostly in TABs and pubs, the only right or wrong "opinion" is when they cross the line ... and a lot of the big mouths are long gone by then
you back your own judgment, or not ...
this is the first time i've jumped on a racing thread on bf but i've seen some of the puffed up bragging and outright bollocks on comments sections on sites such as racenet what kind of delusionary nonsense gets posted
in this case, it's amusing to see a reference citing the history of the cup going back to the "90s/00s" ...

Sadly this is where RV's new rules have taken us back too

 

[Bombers32]

Historically it is actually the opposite - when the races were this weak back in the 90s/early 000s it was quite rare for all those at the top of the market to fail and the winner normally came from the first handful in the market - I would think it would be the same this year. If they do happen to all run below par I would be looking towards horses like VE or unexposed types like Floating Artist or Sir Lucan to bob up rather than a horse like Tralee Rose - or even a huge bounce back from a horse like Delphi.

Right, good point. As I say it’s a very big IF. Incentivise and SM may not need everything to go their way and still be able to win.

I’m a great VE fan and would love to see her win, but I find it hard to mount a super strong case. Waller talked about the Cox Plate being her race to win and the Turnbull being the semi-final. He said if she finished 3rd or 4th she‘d be off for a spell. Granted, she ran well and it’s completely understandable that the MC is still being considered. I think 28 degrees, dry and more importantly 57kg will make it too difficult for her. Would be more than rapt to be proven wrong.

 

[iluvparis]

I see she has been nommed for the Hong Kong International meeting too so I doubt she has come to end of prep

 

[Bombers32]

agree on delphi, i think he's the turnaround out of the caulfield cup ...

Interested in why you think this. I’ve ruled through but happy to hear thoughts as to why others are including. Run was so poor and reported to have raced flat. I’m assuming you’ve dismissed as an outlier poor day?

 

[iluvparis]

Interested in why you think this. I’ve ruled through but happy to hear thoughts as to why others are including. Run was so poor and reported to have raced flat. I’m assuming you’ve dismissed as an outlier poor day?

I'm only including because there are very few actual decent horses lining up so I'd rather throw in a horse like him in case he randomly bounces back (I agree it is probably unlikely) rather than something who is running well but its best won't be good enough

 

[iluvparis]

Amade heading to the paddock

 

[pendlebury_10]

 

[NonPhixion]

View attachment 1269286

im still salty he took the punter of the year off me.

In fact i will never forgive Dusty for doing that to me.

 

[kicksome]

Does anyone rate Grand promenade? It's the only real horse in the field that has ticked all the boxes from the wack arse system that I use. Also if floating artist gets in he's the same. I know its a different sort of cup this year, and nothing has won with 57kg since the diva, but I keep thinking incentivise is only carrying half a kilo more than protectionist when it won.
I keep going back and forth.

 

[iluvparis]

Does anyone rate Grand promenade? It's the only real horse in the field that has ticked all the boxes from the wack arse system that I use. Also if floating artist gets in he's the same. I know its a different sort of cup this year, and nothing has won with 57kg since the diva, but I keep thinking incentivise is only carrying half a kilo more than protectionist when it won.
I keep going back and forth.

I reckon GP will be paddling big time the last 600 - but he belted Tralee Rose in the Bart Cummings so if you keen on it this looks a better chance. At least he is in form which is something you cant say for much of the field.

Think Floating Artist will be massively over bet if he gets a start and is possibly one to play around from exotics - yes he has been unlucky his last two but has been racing the genuine C/D graders without winning.

 

[kicksome]

Think Floating Artist will be massively over bet if he gets a start and is possibly one to play around from exotics - yes he has been unlucky his last two but has been racing the genuine C/D graders without winning.

yeah you're right, If he gets a run hes going in all my exotics just in case. Last week he was really getting going late

 

[iluvparis]

yeah you're right, If he gets a run hes going in all my exotics just in case. Last week he was really getting going late

I was saying the opposite - i think he will be too short so is one to leave out of exotics.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Wot are we thinking will be the last acceptor/runner. Is Hasta a chance to sneak in?

 

[iluvparis]

Wot are we thinking will be the last acceptor/runner. Is Hasta a chance to sneak in?

Think Hasta needs one of the non Melbourne Cup horses to win the Hotham and then VE not to run and one more to fail a scan

 

[Chism]

Great House should get a run and I dont mind him to run Top 4. No way he can beat Incentivise unless he fails to run the trip and boy oh boy what a result we will have if he fails at 3200m!

 

[Hamingja]

Mares in the cup like 3yos in the Cox Plate. Pen them every year and just wear it if they happen to get the odd win.

 

[Jugada]

Mares in the cup like 3yos in the Cox Plate. Pen them every year and just wear it if they happen to get the odd win.

3yo record in the Cox Plate holds up well for mine with a number of horses running in the top 3. Whereas mares in the Cup have done nothing for years. Since the Diva 27 have lined up for duck eggs in the first four spots

 

[HeathySure]

Each year is different. I would suggest mares dont have a great record because most of the overseas raiders are males/geldings and clearly they are lengths better than ours.

 

[Jugada]

Each year is different. I would suggest mares dont have a great record because most of the overseas raiders are males/geldings and clearly they are lengths better than ours.

Which is also the case this year

 

[iluvparis]

Which is also the case this year

Except there is only 2 not 8 - post diva history is basically irrelevant - we have gone back to the pre Diva era of the race

 

[iluvparis]

Wot are we thinking will be the last acceptor/runner. Is Hasta a chance to sneak in?

Benz just said Hasta is out

 

[Sockeye]

I'm a VE fan and think she could run great in the cup but doubt she can win with 57, and that sometimes she doesn't relax in running which hurts over the 2 mile. She wasn't far off in the Cox Plate and definitely covered a fair bit more ground than the first two. Not a great ride but then she can be a bit of a handful. Can still see her picking up WFA group ones but she is now weighted out of these handicaps. Youve gotta beat the handicapper first, eg. Sir Lucan with 50kg.

 

[54Dogs]

How many OS mares have run in the last 15 yrs?